Interesting. Let's play it out. It's 2023 and the Big 12 GOR is about to expire.
The PAC-12, desperate to revive its athletic fortunes (and its leverage with the networks) makes a strong-ass offer to poach Texas and Oklahoma. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State happily tag along. This is similar to what almost went down back in 2010. This time, maybe it does go down. If so:
The SEC moves in on the Texas leftovers. They consider Houston, but go with TCU and Baylor.
The B1G, which cares a lot about geographic integrity, satisfies its eastern wing by adding WVU. They debate about a western team, but ultimately settle on Kansas.
That leaves the ACC. They decide to join the crowd and go to 16. Iowa State and Kansas State are still out there, but the ACC (correctly IMO) have no interest in them. They look to add two teams closer to home. Cincinnati is their first choice. Could UConn get the last seat on the bus?
ALTERNATE SCENARIO: WVU decides to go ACC, which probably makes Pitt fans happy. In that case Cincy probably gets the last seat on the bus. I can't see the B1G having any interest in UConn. Under this scenario maybe the B1G takes both Kansas teams. Or maybe ND decides they're ready for fulltime conference membership, in which case the B1G may be able to poach them. They are a better geographic fit in the B1G.
None of this will probably happen, but it's fun to do worry-free speculation. Unlike our worry-filled speculation of a decade ago.
You got it my friend.
Speculation revolving around money.
Each Conference compares itself with the other conferences as to how much money they make and share.
The Big 12 probably will not be able to poach any team from another P-5 Conference because of money and stability issues.
Because the GOR's are expiring each team member is now free to explore better offers.
The 2 lynch pin teams in the Big 12 are Texas and Oklahoma.
I'm sure the B1G, ACC and Pac-12 would love to have Texas (AAU member University) because it would bring them access to the Texas market (2nd most populous state in the US). The B1G could also consider Kansas (AAU member University) to bring the B1G to a 16 member conference.
The ACC at one time Swofford was exploring the addition of Texas and Notre Dame (combination) to get the ACC to 16 teams. ACC always would be interested in that duo (ESPN/ABC would like it).
As you mentioned, the PAC-12 was ready to bring in Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to bring the Pac-12 to a 16 member conference. Maybe, now is the right time to do it to revitalize their Conference.
As a defensive straegy the SEC, could they bring in Texas and Oklahoma. A strong/powerful conference made even stronger from a marketing perspective (ESPN/ABC would like it). The SEC going to a 16 member conference.
Other combinations Texas stays but Oklahoma leaves for the SEC with Oklahoma State. How weakened is the Big 12 from a financial perspective.
What happens after that is anybodys guess/speculation (musical chairs).
As you know Maryland (founding member) left the ACC to join the B1G in the last conference shake up.
OR. Every team in the Big 12 is HAPPY (Money) with what they are receiving and the conference remains intact.
The next 3 years will be interesting to see what happens.
As for UCONN, they are just hoping when/if the dust settles they have a seat at the table (long shot). Which brings me back to the OP which was keeping Randy for another 2 years. Why not.
HAIL TO PITT!!!!
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