Very rough first crack at Bacatology

[bac2therac]

Okay as I have said before its just toooooooooooooooooooo early by about a week to dive into this with a full analysis as most schools have 8 if not 10 games still left to play. However since RU still is hanging around the fringes of the bubble, I suppose we need to at least look at the landscape right now

68 bids, 32 automatic qualifiers

here are the 32 projected AQ as of this moment

Gonzaga
Arizona
Houston
Auburn
Kansas
Duke
Illinois
Providence
Murray State
Boise State
Loyola
Davidson
North Texas State
Iona
Vermont
Chattanooga
New Mexico St
South Dakota St
Ohio
Wagner
Jacksonville St
Weber St
Longwood
Cal State Fullerton
Colgate
Appalachian State
Yale
Cleveland State
Norfolk State
Southern
North Carolina Wilmington
New Orleans


Then we have a group of 10 here which are basically locks. Would need to tank season from here on out to miss the tournament.

Kentucky
Purdue
Villanova
Baylor
Texas Tech
Tennessee
UCLA
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Michigan State

That takes care of 42 of 68 spots

The next group of 5 looks like likely locks, seem to have significant wins on their resume to not have to worry too much

Texas
LSU
UConn
Xavier
Marquette


That takes care of 47 of 68 spots leaving 21 open spots

Not sure I can delve into a pecking order until next week.

I think these schools ( in no particular order) rate higher than last 8 in so I will list these 13 first as safer than then those

Alabama
USC
St Mary's
Iowa State
Arkansas
Indiana
Iowa
Seton Hall
TCU
Wyoming
San Francisco
Miami
Wake Forest

These schools above are in no ways safe. Some of these schools like USC, Wake and Arkansas have gaudy overall records but thin on quality wins. Schools like Wyoming, San Francisco, and St Marys being part of high mid majors have to keep winning.

That get us to 60 spots and 8 left, for now here are my last 8 in

Oregon
Creighton
BYU
Colorado State
Stanford
Oklahoma
North Carolina
Notre Dame

These 8 are extremely vulnerable for various reasons. Some have great wins like Oregon, Creighton, and BYU but have suffered some bad losses. Some like UNC, Colorado State and Notre Dame have very little on their resume but have fairly clean profiles. It was extremely tough to figure out the last 2 in....both UNC and ND are paper tigers.

With 8 games to play I am thinking the bubble is pretty weak until some of these schools start winning big games. This next grouping of 8 based on their profiles are next in line to get bids but most have only one or two quality wins and some have some bad losses.


'
Here is my last 5 out...only going this far because after this its so hard to seperate the rest

San Diego State
Mississippi State
Kansas State
West Virginia
Florida

I have identified another 17 schools competing for at large bids making a ground total of 22 on the outside looking in

Going to group them by their situations

High mid majors needing as many quality wins as they can get

VCU
Utah State
Memphis
SMU
Cincinnati
St Louis

Major conference schools lacking quality wins

Michigan
Virginia Tech
Washington State
Texas A&M
Virginia

Schools with quality wins but also bad losses

Rutgers
Dayton
Vanderbilt
Florida State

Smaller conference schools who could easily be AQs but have also longshot at large hopes

Belmont
UAB



Normally I show my work and I will next week with stats and rankings and such but will take questions here where I can get more in depths on specific teams and scenerios.

 

[bac2therac]

With respect to Rutgers, the losses to UMass and Lafayette could be overlooked more if their profile was a bit cleaner. Not only did they lose those two but also lost to Maryland at home which is a Q3 loss. You can say all you want about RU isnt the same team from early in the year but then do not go out and lose to Maryland at home especially when you just lost to 3 Q2 schools who are at the bottom of your league. Not all Q2 losses are the same. At some point you need to do the things to prove your a tournament team that should include beating the likes of Northwestern and Maryland

RU needs a quality road win preferably at Indiana moreso than Michigan...of course winning at Wisconsin would be fabulous

RU has 7 more Q1 opportunities on its slate plus Penn State which is a MUST win. Assuming Iowa and MSU can hold their spots in the top 30, Taking 2 of 3 at home plus picking up a road win pushes RU to 6 Q1 wins, would they need a 7th

 

[bac2therac]

a few years back Indiana finished 6-9 in Quad1, 17-15 overall and had 2 wins over top 10 Michigan State and no bad losses. The sheer number of losses and only two games above 500 kept them out, they lost to OSU in the Big 10 tourney first round and might have squeaked in at 18-15 if they had won that game.

Texas was 5-10 vs Q1 two years ago with a 16-15 record and were sent to the NIT

De Paul was 6-12 vs Q1 a few years back but only 15-16 overall.

Last year Michigan State finished 76 in the NET and 15-12 overall and were 5-10 vs Q1 and 4-2 vs Q2...no bad losses and were in the first four grouping so that looks like the RU thread the needle scenerio but again NO bad losses. Plus their sos was 9.

Maryland was 15-13 last year with a 4-10 mark in Quad 1 but 3-3 in Quad 2....again NO bad losses

That is going to be a problem for Rutgers

 

[robjknight]

Let’s just win the next 8 and take the bubble off the table! Play like we did Saturday and it can happen!

 

[bac2therac]

Northwestern is straddling Q1 and Q2 now so have to see where that goes. Clemson is straddling Q2 and Q3 right now.

If RU wins 4......3 Q1 wins and the PSU game which is Q3. RU would be 6-7 vs Q1 and 2-3 vs Q2 and 3-2 in Q 3 and 6-1 in Q4.......17-13 overall/11-9 in Big 10


being sub 500 vs the first 3 quads is a big no no...have seen it before 11-12 is not a good mark you have to be over 500 in that grouping almost always. The Maryland is particularly deadly because there is no excuse for it. Thats why RU will be on the wrong side of the bubble heading into the NCAA tourney but still in contention. The 8-10 mark vs Q1 and 2 certainly is good enough to make the tournament plus having wins over the top 3 schools in the Big 10. However it means RU probably needs two wins in the Big 10 tourney.

I would think getting to 11-9 probably puts RU somewhere is the 6, 7, or 8 spots. A potential 2nd round matchup will involve knocking off one of the top 3, I think if RU does that and gets a 7th Q1 and remember the first round will likely but definitely be a Q2 game so RU would then end up at worst 13-13 vs Q1, 2, 3.

I think 19-14 would get us in....but of course Rutgers does not exist in a vacuum.

 

[bac2therac]

Just looking at Jerry Palm, he keeps North Carolina out because their resume is trash....0-7 vs Q1 and 13 of 16 wins vs Q3 and 4, best win is just Michigan. He also has Wake out whose best win is North Carolina and the Q1 win over Va Tech doesnt move many needles. 18-5 but weak sauce

 

[RUPete]

I wasn't going to click on this because it goes against my one-game-at-a-time mantra following the Maryland stink bomb, but curiosity killed the cat and I looked. Good stuff here. Sure, there's work to be done, but not completely out of the realm of possibility.

 

[bac2therac]

I wasn't going to click on this because it goes against my one-game-at-a-time mantra following the Maryland stink bomb, but curiosity killed the cat and I looked. Good stuff here. Sure, there's work to be done, but not completely out of the realm of possibility.

we are on the bubble...certainly no worse than some other schools. The issue is the rough schedule, opportunities yes but almost a few built in losses.

The Lafayette loss really haunts but its actually losing to Maryland at home during this push that hurts RU's case. We may really regret that one

 

[RUPete]

we are on the bubble...certainly no worse than some other schools. The issue is the rough schedule, opportunities yes but almost a few built in losses.

The Lafayette loss really haunts but its actually losing to Maryland at home during this push that hurts RU's case. We may really regret that one

I already do.

 

[RUby RED]

Nice rundown BAC. Does 12-8 get us in regardless of what happens in the B1G tournament? Assuming a good road win over either Wisconsin/Indiana and no more bad losses (PSU)

 

[G- RUnit]

Well done! As good as the other bracketologists who get paid. None of those last 16 seem particularly safe so if we keeping winning we are in the conversation especially since some of those wins would be good to very good wins. Start with OSU!

 

[bac2therac]

Nice rundown BAC. Does 12-8 get us in regardless of what happens in the B1G tournament? Assuming a good road win over either Wisconsin/Indiana and no more bad losses (PSU)

I think 12-8 with a first round Big 10 tourney win which is likely over the 10, 11 or 12 seed would get us in. At worst we finish 19-13 but would have in that case 7 quad 1 wins

 

[bac2therac]

Well done! As good as the other bracketologists who get paid. None of those last 16 seem particularly safe so if we keeping winning we are in the conversation especially since some of those wins would be good to very good wins. Start with OSU!

we are in the conversation but certainly way back at this point due to our flaws. Hope that our profile starts rising while others profile in the last 12 in group start to fall

 

[RUBlackout]

How would beating OSU and whisky on the road improve our chances?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

a few years back Indiana finished 6-9 in Quad1, 17-15 overall and had 2 wins over top 10 Michigan State and no bad losses. The sheer number of losses and only two games above 500 kept them out, they lost to OSU in the Big 10 tourney first round and might have squeaked in at 18-15 if they had won that game.

Texas was 5-10 vs Q1 two years ago with a 16-15 record and were sent to the NIT

De Paul was 6-12 vs Q1 a few years back but only 15-16 overall.

Last year Michigan State finished 76 in the NET and 15-12 overall and were 5-10 vs Q1 and 4-2 vs Q2...no bad losses and were in the first four grouping so that looks like the RU thread the needle scenerio but again NO bad losses. Plus their sos was 9.

Maryland was 15-13 last year with a 4-10 mark in Quad 1 but 3-3 in Quad 2....again NO bad losses

That is going to be a problem for Rutgers

They were a 1 seed in NIT correct?

 

[bac2therac]

How would beating OSU and whisky on the road improve our chances?

Enormously

 

[bac2therac]

They were a 1 seed in NIT correct?

I think

 

[SBP]

Just win baby….

 

[GORU2014]

How would beating OSU and whisky on the road improve our chances?

Our NET would move into the 80s (probably between 80-85), 2 more Q1 wins, 1 more road win, 6+ left to play. Would be huge.

 

[BillyC80]

NCAA is the goal, and will be difficult but doable. Wondering if we finish 4-4 and then go 1-1 in the B1G tourney, if we at least earn an NIT bid. Would love to keep the excitement going with a meaningful post-season of some kind, and maybe an extra home game at the RAC?

 

[G- RUnit]

Gotta think that’s a given.

 

[bac2therac]

NCAA is the goal, and will be difficult but doable. Wondering if we finish 4-4 and then go 1-1 in the B1G tourney, if we at least earn an NIT bid. Would love to keep the excitement going with a meaningful post-season of some kind, and maybe an extra home game at the RAC?

that would definitely get us a one or two seed in the NIT

 

[G- RUnit]

And now UVA in the conversation. Damn. They looked great. Where was that all year?
RU should use this game. You can win on the road! Believe!

 

[bac2therac]

big needed win for Virginia on the road..they now have 3 quality wins....at Duke, Providence on a neutral site and Miami, they have 3 quadrant 3 losses still.

finish 4-2 down the stretch which is quite doable including another shot vs Duke and they are in

Iowa's resume gets a boost now too

 

[scarletrat]

IMO, RU has to finish at least 5-3, including a win at PSU. Best path may be to finish 9-1 at home and scratch out another road win. That puts us at 12-8 and 18-12 overall.

4-4--have to win 2 in B1G tourney
5-3--should win 1 in tourney

Just get into the play-in game as an 11 or 12...

 

[goru7]

Okay as I have said before its just toooooooooooooooooooo early by about a week to dive into this with a full analysis as most schools have 8 if not 10 games still left to play. However since RU still is hanging around the fringes of the bubble, I suppose we need to at least look at the landscape right now

68 bids, 32 automatic qualifiers

here are the 32 projected AQ as of this moment

Gonzaga
Arizona
Houston
Auburn
Kansas
Duke
Illinois
Providence
Murray State
Boise State
Loyola
Davidson
North Texas State
Iona
Vermont
Chattanooga
New Mexico St
South Dakota St
Ohio
Wagner
Jacksonville St
Weber St
Longwood
Cal State Fullerton
Colgate
Appalachian State
Yale
Cleveland State
Norfolk State
Southern
North Carolina Wilmington
New Orleans


Then we have a group of 10 here which are basically locks. Would need to tank season from here on out to miss the tournament.

Kentucky
Purdue
Villanova
Baylor
Texas Tech
Tennessee
UCLA
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Michigan State

That takes care of 42 of 68 spots

The next group of 5 looks like likely locks, seem to have significant wins on their resume to not have to worry too much

Texas
LSU
UConn
Xavier
Marquette


That takes care of 47 of 68 spots leaving 21 open spots

Not sure I can delve into a pecking order until next week.

I think these schools ( in no particular order) rate higher than last 8 in so I will list these 13 first as safer than then those

Alabama
USC
St Mary's
Iowa State
Arkansas
Indiana
Iowa
Seton Hall
TCU
Wyoming
San Francisco
Miami
Wake Forest

These schools above are in no ways safe. Some of these schools like USC, Wake and Arkansas have gaudy overall records but thin on quality wins. Schools like Wyoming, San Francisco, and St Marys being part of high mid majors have to keep winning.

That get us to 60 spots and 8 left, for now here are my last 8 in

Oregon
Creighton
BYU
Colorado State
Stanford
Oklahoma
North Carolina
Notre Dame

These 8 are extremely vulnerable for various reasons. Some have great wins like Oregon, Creighton, and BYU but have suffered some bad losses. Some like UNC, Colorado State and Notre Dame have very little on their resume but have fairly clean profiles. It was extremely tough to figure out the last 2 in....both UNC and ND are paper tigers.

With 8 games to play I am thinking the bubble is pretty weak until some of these schools start winning big games. This next grouping of 8 based on their profiles are next in line to get bids but most have only one or two quality wins and some have some bad losses.


'
Here is my last 5 out...only going this far because after this its so hard to seperate the rest

San Diego State
Mississippi State
Kansas State
West Virginia
Florida

I have identified another 17 schools competing for at large bids making a ground total of 22 on the outside looking in

Going to group them by their situations

High mid majors needing as many quality wins as they can get

VCU
Utah State
Memphis
SMU
Cincinnati
St Louis

Major conference schools lacking quality wins

Michigan
Virginia Tech
Washington State
Texas A&M
Virginia

Schools with quality wins but also bad losses

Rutgers
Dayton
Vanderbilt
Florida State

Smaller conference schools who could easily be AQs but have also longshot at large hopes

Belmont
UAB



Normally I show my work and I will next week with stats and rankings and such but will take questions here where I can get more in depths on specific teams and scenerios.

Tremendous job as usual . Labor of Love. One of the big problems this year that will might rear it’s ugly head will be the bid stealers. Murray State is getting close To at large status and Belmont is always tough and might give them trouble in the conference tourney. Plus in the major conferences, like Oregon State last year , I would not be surprised if a middling team gets hot and wins their conferences especially like in the ACC, Big East ,, PAC 12 and Mountain West .

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

really good breakdown - why not Davidson though on the list of AQs that would have shot for At Large? That neutral win over Alabama is pretty good and the A-10 is a decent league. I think they would have a good chance to get in if the lost to St Louis in the finals.

 

[bac2therac]

really good breakdown - why not Davidson though on the list of AQs that would have shot for At Large? That neutral win over Alabama is pretty good and the A-10 is a decent league. I think they would have a good chance to get in if the lost to St Louis in the finals.

Because they are the projected AQ thats why

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Because they are the projected AQ thats why

Ah ok. So that Belmont list is only teams that are not currently in 1st place.

how many Davidson types do we need to be concerned about on the current AQ list? It seems like there are an awful lot of 3-4 loss mid-majors this year from slightly better conferences than usual. Ohio? (I.e. the MAC isn’t great but it’s also not like when Winthrop had 3 losses and played in one of the worst conferences).

 

[bac2therac]

Davidson
Murray St
UAB

Those are the serious contenders

Then you have the topsy turvy Mountain West and always the chance Houston gets knocked off in the what looks like one bid AAC

 

[bac2therac]

RU appears on one bracket in the bracket matrix.....one of the first four playing Notre Dame with UConn waiting in the wings in Philly

Matty Brackets: CBB Review Bracketology - February 7, 2022

Matty Brackets gives a February 7 bracketology update.

cbbreview.com

 

[HallX2]

Okay as I have said before its just toooooooooooooooooooo early by about a week to dive into this with a full analysis as most schools have 8 if not 10 games still left to play. However since RU still is hanging around the fringes of the bubble, I suppose we need to at least look at the landscape right now

68 bids, 32 automatic qualifiers

here are the 32 projected AQ as of this moment

Gonzaga
Arizona
Houston
Auburn
Kansas
Duke
Illinois
Providence
Murray State
Boise State
Loyola
Davidson
North Texas State
Iona
Vermont
Chattanooga
New Mexico St
South Dakota St
Ohio
Wagner
Jacksonville St
Weber St
Longwood
Cal State Fullerton
Colgate
Appalachian State
Yale
Cleveland State
Norfolk State
Southern
North Carolina Wilmington
New Orleans


Then we have a group of 10 here which are basically locks. Would need to tank season from here on out to miss the tournament.

Kentucky
Purdue
Villanova
Baylor
Texas Tech
Tennessee
UCLA
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Michigan State

That takes care of 42 of 68 spots

The next group of 5 looks like likely locks, seem to have significant wins on their resume to not have to worry too much

Texas
LSU
UConn
Xavier
Marquette


That takes care of 47 of 68 spots leaving 21 open spots

Not sure I can delve into a pecking order until next week.

I think these schools ( in no particular order) rate higher than last 8 in so I will list these 13 first as safer than then those

Alabama
USC
St Mary's
Iowa State
Arkansas
Indiana
Iowa
Seton Hall
TCU
Wyoming
San Francisco
Miami
Wake Forest

These schools above are in no ways safe. Some of these schools like USC, Wake and Arkansas have gaudy overall records but thin on quality wins. Schools like Wyoming, San Francisco, and St Marys being part of high mid majors have to keep winning.

That get us to 60 spots and 8 left, for now here are my last 8 in

Oregon
Creighton
BYU
Colorado State
Stanford
Oklahoma
North Carolina
Notre Dame

These 8 are extremely vulnerable for various reasons. Some have great wins like Oregon, Creighton, and BYU but have suffered some bad losses. Some like UNC, Colorado State and Notre Dame have very little on their resume but have fairly clean profiles. It was extremely tough to figure out the last 2 in....both UNC and ND are paper tigers.

With 8 games to play I am thinking the bubble is pretty weak until some of these schools start winning big games. This next grouping of 8 based on their profiles are next in line to get bids but most have only one or two quality wins and some have some bad losses.


'
Here is my last 5 out...only going this far because after this its so hard to seperate the rest

San Diego State
Mississippi State
Kansas State
West Virginia
Florida

I have identified another 17 schools competing for at large bids making a ground total of 22 on the outside looking in

Going to group them by their situations

High mid majors needing as many quality wins as they can get

VCU
Utah State
Memphis
SMU
Cincinnati
St Louis

Major conference schools lacking quality wins

Michigan
Virginia Tech
Washington State
Texas A&M
Virginia

Schools with quality wins but also bad losses

Rutgers
Dayton
Vanderbilt
Florida State

Smaller conference schools who could easily be AQs but have also longshot at large hopes

Belmont
UAB



Normally I show my work and I will next week with stats and rankings and such but will take questions here where I can get more in depths on specific teams and scenerios.

Always a great read. Thanks for doing this. And I give your views more credence than Lunardi’s.

 

[mtm183]

Curious on the Michigan rationale here (ESPN article about the bubble from this morning).

Bubble Watch 2022: Which teams will be most surprised to see their bubbles burst?

Not all bubble hopefuls have the same level of optimism on this Selection Sunday.

www.espn.com

Michigan is listed as "work to do" in the B1G, while RU isn't listed at all. Michigan is 11-9 / 5-5 with one good win (?) at Indiana. Is this just a function of our bad losses? Or partly the Michigan preseason hype holding on? Clearly RU has better wins and better conference record.

Thoughts?

 

[kcg88]

Curious on the Michigan rationale here (ESPN article about the bubble from this morning).

Bubble Watch 2022: Which teams will be most surprised to see their bubbles burst?

Not all bubble hopefuls have the same level of optimism on this Selection Sunday.

www.espn.com

Michigan is listed as "work to do" in the B1G, while RU isn't listed at all. Michigan is 11-9 / 5-5 with one good win (?) at Indiana. Is this just a function of our bad losses? Or partly the Michigan preseason hype holding on? Clearly RU has better wins and better conference record.

Thoughts?

Michigan:
Quad 1: 1-5
Quad 2: 2-3
Quad 3: 4-1
Quad 4: 4-0

Rutgers:
Quad 1: 3-3
Quad 2: 2-3
Quad 3: 2-2
Quad 4: 6-1

I don't think two additional Q1 wins are enough to offset two additional Q3/4 losses. Edge to Michigan, for now.

 

[bac2therac]

Curious on the Michigan rationale here (ESPN article about the bubble from this morning).

Bubble Watch 2022: Which teams will be most surprised to see their bubbles burst?

Not all bubble hopefuls have the same level of optimism on this Selection Sunday.

www.espn.com

Michigan is listed as "work to do" in the B1G, while RU isn't listed at all. Michigan is 11-9 / 5-5 with one good win (?) at Indiana. Is this just a function of our bad losses? Or partly the Michigan preseason hype holding on? Clearly RU has better wins and better conference record.

Thoughts?

cant read and i am not paying for espn articles

Michigan is nowhere near getting in right now. They have a ton of work to do much like Rutgers. However their profile has less warts right now and the issue with RU also is the NET 99 which I can guarantee is scaring guys like whoever wrote this article from considering RU.

could you post their comments about Stanford who has some pretty good wins and I have them in the last 4 in line right now but alot of bracketologists are staying away from them because of the NET of 89 I think

 

[RUDieHard]

BAC,

Can you rank the remaining games in order of impact /importance to our dancing hopes.

I would expect PSU to be #1 since we don't need any more bad losses on the resume.

Thanks

 

[mtm183]

cant read and i am not paying for espn articles

Michigan is nowhere near getting in right now. They have a ton of work to do much like Rutgers. However their profile has less warts right now and the issue with RU also is the NET 99 which I can guarantee is scaring guys like whoever wrote this article from considering RU.

could you post their comments about Stanford who has some pretty good wins and I have them in the last 4 in line right now but alot of bracketologists are staying away from them because of the NET of 89 I think

Stanford Cardinal
Here at Bubble Watch, we will never be accused of being dogmatic essentialists when it comes to a team's NET ranking. Still, even the freethinkers at Watch HQ were taken aback when the cape was pulled back and Stanford's NET ranking was revealed in all its belligerent aberrance. Despite a season sweep of USC and a win over Oregon, the Cardinal are clocking in around No. 90. Actually, Stanford and otherwise overlooked Colorado have both scored (0.98) and allowed (1.00) the exact same numbers for points per possession in Pac-12 play. Yet it is Jerod Haase's group that shows up occasionally on this or that "next four out" list. Naturally, a home win over UCLA would help bring all of the above numbers into closer alignment with the voice of the mocks. Let's revisit the question after the next 40 minutes of hoops.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

cant read and i am not paying for espn articles

Michigan is nowhere near getting in right now. They have a ton of work to do much like Rutgers. However their profile has less warts right now and the issue with RU also is the NET 99 which I can guarantee is scaring guys like whoever wrote this article from considering RU.m

Shifting the free Palm article from years ago on Michigan and similar bubblers to this string. Same idea can be applied here.

NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch: Syracuse, Michigan State on the fence

One of the Maize guys referenced it. They wont get in unless they finish 4 games above 500 (as always he pointed to history - it’s still been since 2001 when a team got in without that metric - ignoring 2020). In this case he’s likely right. They only have 2 games to play left outside of Q1 though so the premise is sort of like RU - if they get there the quality wins will be there by default. The difference is you can add good wins but you can’t remove bad losses.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Here’s the Maize article:

Michigan men need to start pulling upsets to earn NCAA Tournament bid

The Wolverines have plenty of chances to improve their résumé.

www.mlive.com

 

[bac2therac]

BAC,

Can you rank the remaining games in order of impact /importance to our dancing hopes.

I would expect PSU to be #1 since we don't need any more bad losses on the resume.

Thanks

I think we need a road win that would be Q1 so actually I would put that one first

1. road win
2. beating Q3 Penn State
3. Illinois
4. Ohio State
5. Wisconsin

obviously road wins at Purdue or Wisconsin or preferable

need minimum of 4 wins to be in play heading into the Big 10 tourney