Okay as I have said before its just toooooooooooooooooooo early by about a week to dive into this with a full analysis as most schools have 8 if not 10 games still left to play. However since RU still is hanging around the fringes of the bubble, I suppose we need to at least look at the landscape right now
68 bids, 32 automatic qualifiers
here are the 32 projected AQ as of this moment
Gonzaga
Arizona
Houston
Auburn
Kansas
Duke
Illinois
Providence
Murray State
Boise State
Loyola
Davidson
North Texas State
Iona
Vermont
Chattanooga
New Mexico St
South Dakota St
Ohio
Wagner
Jacksonville St
Weber St
Longwood
Cal State Fullerton
Colgate
Appalachian State
Yale
Cleveland State
Norfolk State
Southern
North Carolina Wilmington
New Orleans
Then we have a group of 10 here which are basically locks. Would need to tank season from here on out to miss the tournament.
Kentucky
Purdue
Villanova
Baylor
Texas Tech
Tennessee
UCLA
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Michigan State
That takes care of 42 of 68 spots
The next group of 5 looks like likely locks, seem to have significant wins on their resume to not have to worry too much
Texas
LSU
UConn
Xavier
Marquette
That takes care of 47 of 68 spots leaving 21 open spots
Not sure I can delve into a pecking order until next week.
I think these schools ( in no particular order) rate higher than last 8 in so I will list these 13 first as safer than then those
Alabama
USC
St Mary's
Iowa State
Arkansas
Indiana
Iowa
Seton Hall
TCU
Wyoming
San Francisco
Miami
Wake Forest
These schools above are in no ways safe. Some of these schools like USC, Wake and Arkansas have gaudy overall records but thin on quality wins. Schools like Wyoming, San Francisco, and St Marys being part of high mid majors have to keep winning.
That get us to 60 spots and 8 left, for now here are my last 8 in
Oregon
Creighton
BYU
Colorado State
Stanford
Oklahoma
North Carolina
Notre Dame
These 8 are extremely vulnerable for various reasons. Some have great wins like Oregon, Creighton, and BYU but have suffered some bad losses. Some like UNC, Colorado State and Notre Dame have very little on their resume but have fairly clean profiles. It was extremely tough to figure out the last 2 in....both UNC and ND are paper tigers.
With 8 games to play I am thinking the bubble is pretty weak until some of these schools start winning big games. This next grouping of 8 based on their profiles are next in line to get bids but most have only one or two quality wins and some have some bad losses.
'
Here is my last 5 out...only going this far because after this its so hard to seperate the rest
San Diego State
Mississippi State
Kansas State
West Virginia
Florida
I have identified another 17 schools competing for at large bids making a ground total of 22 on the outside looking in
Going to group them by their situations
High mid majors needing as many quality wins as they can get
VCU
Utah State
Memphis
SMU
Cincinnati
St Louis
Major conference schools lacking quality wins
Michigan
Virginia Tech
Washington State
Texas A&M
Virginia
Schools with quality wins but also bad losses
Rutgers
Dayton
Vanderbilt
Florida State
Smaller conference schools who could easily be AQs but have also longshot at large hopes
Belmont
UAB
Normally I show my work and I will next week with stats and rankings and such but will take questions here where I can get more in depths on specific teams and scenerios.
68 bids, 32 automatic qualifiers
here are the 32 projected AQ as of this moment
Gonzaga
Arizona
Houston
Auburn
Kansas
Duke
Illinois
Providence
Murray State
Boise State
Loyola
Davidson
North Texas State
Iona
Vermont
Chattanooga
New Mexico St
South Dakota St
Ohio
Wagner
Jacksonville St
Weber St
Longwood
Cal State Fullerton
Colgate
Appalachian State
Yale
Cleveland State
Norfolk State
Southern
North Carolina Wilmington
New Orleans
Then we have a group of 10 here which are basically locks. Would need to tank season from here on out to miss the tournament.
Kentucky
Purdue
Villanova
Baylor
Texas Tech
Tennessee
UCLA
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Michigan State
That takes care of 42 of 68 spots
The next group of 5 looks like likely locks, seem to have significant wins on their resume to not have to worry too much
Texas
LSU
UConn
Xavier
Marquette
That takes care of 47 of 68 spots leaving 21 open spots
Not sure I can delve into a pecking order until next week.
I think these schools ( in no particular order) rate higher than last 8 in so I will list these 13 first as safer than then those
Alabama
USC
St Mary's
Iowa State
Arkansas
Indiana
Iowa
Seton Hall
TCU
Wyoming
San Francisco
Miami
Wake Forest
These schools above are in no ways safe. Some of these schools like USC, Wake and Arkansas have gaudy overall records but thin on quality wins. Schools like Wyoming, San Francisco, and St Marys being part of high mid majors have to keep winning.
That get us to 60 spots and 8 left, for now here are my last 8 in
Oregon
Creighton
BYU
Colorado State
Stanford
Oklahoma
North Carolina
Notre Dame
These 8 are extremely vulnerable for various reasons. Some have great wins like Oregon, Creighton, and BYU but have suffered some bad losses. Some like UNC, Colorado State and Notre Dame have very little on their resume but have fairly clean profiles. It was extremely tough to figure out the last 2 in....both UNC and ND are paper tigers.
With 8 games to play I am thinking the bubble is pretty weak until some of these schools start winning big games. This next grouping of 8 based on their profiles are next in line to get bids but most have only one or two quality wins and some have some bad losses.
'
Here is my last 5 out...only going this far because after this its so hard to seperate the rest
San Diego State
Mississippi State
Kansas State
West Virginia
Florida
I have identified another 17 schools competing for at large bids making a ground total of 22 on the outside looking in
Going to group them by their situations
High mid majors needing as many quality wins as they can get
VCU
Utah State
Memphis
SMU
Cincinnati
St Louis
Major conference schools lacking quality wins
Michigan
Virginia Tech
Washington State
Texas A&M
Virginia
Schools with quality wins but also bad losses
Rutgers
Dayton
Vanderbilt
Florida State
Smaller conference schools who could easily be AQs but have also longshot at large hopes
Belmont
UAB
Normally I show my work and I will next week with stats and rankings and such but will take questions here where I can get more in depths on specific teams and scenerios.