Bacatology 3/10: NCAA Tournament Analysis
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Ohio State falls to 11-15 in Q1/2/3......the analysts on Peacock seem oblivious to this trying to lobby for them.....3-11 vs field
for the record, Iowa is 10-15, Northwestern is 12-15 and 3-8 vs field
for the record, Iowa is 10-15, Northwestern is 12-15 and 3-8 vs field
Yeah I don’t understand how they can say a 17-15 team deserves an at-large. Weird.
with the Ohio State loss (before full scrub tomorrow which could change things)
LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA, BAYLOR, INDIANA, XAVIER
FIRST 4 OUT: DAYTON, BOISE STATE, TEXAS, NEBRASKA
NEXT 4 OUT: WAKE FOREST, OHIO STATE, COLORADO STATE, SMU
OTHERS: UC IRVINE, VILLANOVA, GEORGE MASON
LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA, BAYLOR, INDIANA, XAVIER
FIRST 4 OUT: DAYTON, BOISE STATE, TEXAS, NEBRASKA
NEXT 4 OUT: WAKE FOREST, OHIO STATE, COLORADO STATE, SMU
OTHERS: UC IRVINE, VILLANOVA, GEORGE MASON
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not since 2001 has a team only 2 games above 500 ever made it as an at large...Georgia at 16-14 and they played a ridiculous schedule
17 win schools...Michigan a few years ago but they were 17-14
15 loss schools...3 times in the past decade but they had 19, 20 wins.
4 games sub 500 at 11-15....would be historical as i believe no school has got in more than 1 game below .500
the whole selection of Ohio State would be historical....Nebraska actually has a better resume in some ways and more wins vs the field
I know it’s not how it works, but Nebraska still in the conversation is crazy. How can you make the NCAA Tournament if you don’t even qualify for your conference tournament.
because the rest of the bubble has been atrocious....Nebbys resume now looks better than OSU because one less loss and better wins
Expansion would really make things watered down
that being said you have to figure a bid stealer is out there waiting to fill in that last spot
Haven’t read this all year, too depressed, but love your work. Two things
1. How can a 1-11 Q1 UNC make it? Is it on name pedigree only?
2. How sad will we be if OSU gets in at 17-15 - what could have been for us.
1. How can a 1-11 Q1 UNC make it? Is it on name pedigree only?
2. How sad will we be if OSU gets in at 17-15 - what could have been for us.
Good stuff BAC. I love the updates!
Ohio St. is out. If not, there should be an investigation.
the bubble really is this bad that UNC is in this holding spot at the last spot...the prettiest ugly girl in the room right now whose parents have the most money
The 1-11 is hideous true but their sos was really good..i think its 5 problem is they lost them all except for UCLA. At 8-0 in Q2 they are at least 9-11 in Q1/2 so something should be said about that...also they got all the tougher teams in acc on the road so that was unfortunate...duke, clemson, Louis, wake all on the road and only once...
but big factor is the acc only has 3 schools in...Bubba Cunningham AD at UNC is the chairman of the committee so you figure that one out
on Ohio State they are not getting an at large, would be historic if they do on many levels shatter all precidence and they simply dont have the high quality wins for that
Baylor wins 70-56. They look IN and I moving them out of the first 4 and onto the 10 line. For now Oklahoma slides into the first four.
LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA, INDIANA, XAVIER, OKLAHOMA
FIRST 4 OUT: DAYTON, BOISE STATE, TEXAS, NEBRASKA
NEXT 4 OUT: WAKE FOREST, OHIO STATE, COLORADO STATE, SMU
OTHERS: UC IRVINE, VILLANOVA, GEORGE MASON
LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA, INDIANA, XAVIER, OKLAHOMA
FIRST 4 OUT: DAYTON, BOISE STATE, TEXAS, NEBRASKA
NEXT 4 OUT: WAKE FOREST, OHIO STATE, COLORADO STATE, SMU
OTHERS: UC IRVINE, VILLANOVA, GEORGE MASON
To add context to that 2001 Georgia team that got in at 16-14, just to show what an outlier they were...here are their results under today's Quad system, using the final KenPom rating in place of NET rating (since it didn't exist in 2001, but is a relatively close comparison)...
Q1: 5-10
Q2: 8-3
Q3: 2-1
Q4: 1-0
1 Quad 4 game all season, and only 4 games against the bottom two Quads. That's pretty insane.
Q1: 5-10
Q2: 8-3
Q3: 2-1
Q4: 1-0
1 Quad 4 game all season, and only 4 games against the bottom two Quads. That's pretty insane.
Oklahoma knocks off Georgia and looks like the Sooners are dancing. SEC with 13 is looking very very likely but i will stop short of saying definite...lot of seeding jockeying with a half dozen schools in the 9/10/11 range and at least one probably ends up in the first four in Dayton
Kansas survives upset bid in overtime from bid stealer wannabee UCF
SMU takes care of Syracuse but still cannot see how the Mustangs can get into the field
Kansas survives upset bid in overtime from bid stealer wannabee UCF
SMU takes care of Syracuse but still cannot see how the Mustangs can get into the field
we shall see what happens tomorrow with some deeper scrubbing
LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA, INDIANA, XAVIER, VANDERBILT
FIRST 4 OUT: DAYTON, BOISE STATE, TEXAS, NEBRASKA
NEXT 4 OUT: WAKE FOREST, OHIO STATE, COLORADO STATE, SMU
OTHERS: UC IRVINE, VILLANOVA, GEORGE MASON
LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA, INDIANA, XAVIER, VANDERBILT
FIRST 4 OUT: DAYTON, BOISE STATE, TEXAS, NEBRASKA
NEXT 4 OUT: WAKE FOREST, OHIO STATE, COLORADO STATE, SMU
OTHERS: UC IRVINE, VILLANOVA, GEORGE MASON
Great stuff! Updates are wonderful.
My favorite sports time of the year, as much as Rutgers breaks our collective hearts every year.
Ohio State gone as now can probably pencil Texas in.
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Vandy is not an 11 and not going to Dayton. Their schedule has been insane. They likely dropped from an 8 where they were 1 week ago to a 9 or 10.
I agree Ohio State out. Texas still on the outside.
If Dayton wins 2 games then I think VCU and Dayton come out of the A10.
Bid stealers left in A10 and AAC. Plus any power 5 that will win 4 in 4 days or 5 in 5 days
I agree Ohio State out. Texas still on the outside.
If Dayton wins 2 games then I think VCU and Dayton come out of the A10.
Bid stealers left in A10 and AAC. Plus any power 5 that will win 4 in 4 days or 5 in 5 days
Over the years the Committee has loved the A10. Maybe because of Dayton.
I always thought the SEC, B1G and ACC were probably fighting behind the scenes to get their teams in, Committee not wanting to show any favoritism or piss them off would do the smart thing and pick an A10 team
Same thing in the west, Could be similar with Big 12 and Pac 12 infighting, screw them, Committee says let’s pick a Mountain West team.
I always thought the SEC, B1G and ACC were probably fighting behind the scenes to get their teams in, Committee not wanting to show any favoritism or piss them off would do the smart thing and pick an A10 team
Same thing in the west, Could be similar with Big 12 and Pac 12 infighting, screw them, Committee says let’s pick a Mountain West team.
compare them with other schools...its not good..their non conference sos is 331...they are just 5-12 vs field
sec schools vs field
Oklahoma 8-10
Arkansas 6-10
Texas 6-13
Georgia 5-12
Vanderbilt 5-12
dont get caught up in bubble talk of the past few weeks, Vandy was safe but not as much now once you get into their nitty gritty...and they dont have the out of conference win that Georgia and Oklahoma do. I do understand they played one of the toughest SEC schedules but 8 of their wins are coming from Q4. Poor road mark of 3-7 and just 1-7 in Q1 games
Can they avoid Dayton...sure..things get scrubbed as we compare as schools end their season. Its very likely at least one sec school will be there.
Morning update
ONE SEEDS: Auburn*, Duke*, Houston*, Florida
TWO SEEDS: Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State*, St John's*
THREE SEEDS: Kentucky, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Iowa State
FOUR SEEDS: Purdue, Wisconsin, Clemson, Maryland
FIVE SEEDS: Arizona, Oregon, Michigan, Mississippi
SIX SEEDS: UCLA, Missouri, Louisville, Gonzaga
SEVEN SEEDS: St Mary’s, Illinois, BYU, Kansas
EIGHT SEEDS: Marquette, Memphis*, Connecticut, New Mexico*
NINE SEEDS: Creighton, Mississippi State, Utah State, Oklahoma
TEN SEEDS: West Virginia, Georgia, San Diego State, Drake*
ELEVEN SEEDS: Baylor, Arkansas, VCU*, Vanderbilt/Indiana
TWELVE SEEDS: Xavier/North Carolina, UC San Diego*,Liberty*, McNeese State*
THIRTEEN SEEDS: Yale*, High Point*, Akron*, Lipscomb*
FOURTEEN SEEDS: Troy*, Utah Valley State*, UNC Wilmington*, Montana*
FIFTEEN SEEDS: Wofford*, Robert Morris*, Omaha*, Bryant*
SIXTEEN SEEDS: Norfolk State*, SIUE*, Quinnipiac*/American*, St Francis*/Jackson State*
LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA, XAVIER, INDIANA, VANDERBILT
FIRST 4 OUT: BOISE STATE, DAYTON, TEXAS, NEBRASKA
NEXT 4 OUT: WAKE FOREST, OHIO STATE, COLORADO STATE, SMU
OTHERS: UC IRVINE, VILLANOVA, GEORGE MASON
ONE SEEDS: Auburn*, Duke*, Houston*, Florida
TWO SEEDS: Alabama, Tennessee, Michigan State*, St John's*
THREE SEEDS: Kentucky, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Iowa State
FOUR SEEDS: Purdue, Wisconsin, Clemson, Maryland
FIVE SEEDS: Arizona, Oregon, Michigan, Mississippi
SIX SEEDS: UCLA, Missouri, Louisville, Gonzaga
SEVEN SEEDS: St Mary’s, Illinois, BYU, Kansas
EIGHT SEEDS: Marquette, Memphis*, Connecticut, New Mexico*
NINE SEEDS: Creighton, Mississippi State, Utah State, Oklahoma
TEN SEEDS: West Virginia, Georgia, San Diego State, Drake*
ELEVEN SEEDS: Baylor, Arkansas, VCU*, Vanderbilt/Indiana
TWELVE SEEDS: Xavier/North Carolina, UC San Diego*,Liberty*, McNeese State*
THIRTEEN SEEDS: Yale*, High Point*, Akron*, Lipscomb*
FOURTEEN SEEDS: Troy*, Utah Valley State*, UNC Wilmington*, Montana*
FIFTEEN SEEDS: Wofford*, Robert Morris*, Omaha*, Bryant*
SIXTEEN SEEDS: Norfolk State*, SIUE*, Quinnipiac*/American*, St Francis*/Jackson State*
LAST 4 IN: NORTH CAROLINA, XAVIER, INDIANA, VANDERBILT
FIRST 4 OUT: BOISE STATE, DAYTON, TEXAS, NEBRASKA
NEXT 4 OUT: WAKE FOREST, OHIO STATE, COLORADO STATE, SMU
OTHERS: UC IRVINE, VILLANOVA, GEORGE MASON
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It will likely be Texas or Oklahoma in Dayton if they both make it but not Vandy.
IMPACT GAMES
ACC
North Carolina needs to beat Wake Forest to remain in the field. The question will be is that enough or do they have to beat Duke? Sitting on top of the cut line, they will do themselves well to do that.
Wake Forest can remain in contention for a bid with a win over UNC but it would not be enough to move them into the field today. Would also put themselves in great position with a win over Duke.
SMU must beat Clemson to remain in consideration. Would likely need another win in the semis over Louisville to become a serious candidate. However you cannot build a resume in a few days of a tourney.
BIG 12
Baylor is probably okay but a win over Texas Tech would push them above Dayton. A loss would drop them to 18-14 and while they "should" be okay, they would be very vulnerable to being sent to Dayton.
Kansas/Arizona and BYU/Iowa State are last shots at jockeying for seeding
Colorado is the only potential bid stealer left from the Big 12 and face Houston
BIG EAST
St John's needs to beat Butler in the quarterfinals of the Big East tourney to remain solidly as a 2 seed.
Xavier can bolster their profile with a win over Marquette and likely punch their ticket. A loss would not necessarily drop them out of the field depending on other bubble games around them.
Villanova must beat Connecticut if they want to keep their longshot hopes alive.
BIG 10
Indiana is short on wins vs the field at just 2-9. A win over Oregon would put help for sure even if they do not move out of Dayton. The Hoosiers may be able to sustain a loss here but certainly will be sweating things out on Sunday.
Iowa, USC, and Northwestern are potential bid stealers still alive
MOUNTAIN WEST
Boise State can possibly move into the field with a win over San Diego State. A loss keeps them out and then must wait to see if the committee throws them a bone.
San Diego State will be a mortal lock with a victory. The Aztecs still look okay with a loss here but still vulnerable.
Colorado State must be Nevada or their bubble will officially burst. Will need an additional win and a trip to the MWC finals to move closer to the cut line.
San Jose State, Nevada, and UNLV lurk as potential bid stealers.
SEC
Texas can possibly move back into the field with a win over Texas A&M. A loss means the Longhorns remain out but still will receive decent consideration.
Arkansas in pretty good shape can stay above Dayton with a win over Ole Miss.
Oklahoma has rectified any issue with the resume and now playing for a possible 9 seed if they can knock off Kentucky
ACC
North Carolina needs to beat Wake Forest to remain in the field. The question will be is that enough or do they have to beat Duke? Sitting on top of the cut line, they will do themselves well to do that.
Wake Forest can remain in contention for a bid with a win over UNC but it would not be enough to move them into the field today. Would also put themselves in great position with a win over Duke.
SMU must beat Clemson to remain in consideration. Would likely need another win in the semis over Louisville to become a serious candidate. However you cannot build a resume in a few days of a tourney.
BIG 12
Baylor is probably okay but a win over Texas Tech would push them above Dayton. A loss would drop them to 18-14 and while they "should" be okay, they would be very vulnerable to being sent to Dayton.
Kansas/Arizona and BYU/Iowa State are last shots at jockeying for seeding
Colorado is the only potential bid stealer left from the Big 12 and face Houston
BIG EAST
St John's needs to beat Butler in the quarterfinals of the Big East tourney to remain solidly as a 2 seed.
Xavier can bolster their profile with a win over Marquette and likely punch their ticket. A loss would not necessarily drop them out of the field depending on other bubble games around them.
Villanova must beat Connecticut if they want to keep their longshot hopes alive.
BIG 10
Indiana is short on wins vs the field at just 2-9. A win over Oregon would put help for sure even if they do not move out of Dayton. The Hoosiers may be able to sustain a loss here but certainly will be sweating things out on Sunday.
Iowa, USC, and Northwestern are potential bid stealers still alive
MOUNTAIN WEST
Boise State can possibly move into the field with a win over San Diego State. A loss keeps them out and then must wait to see if the committee throws them a bone.
San Diego State will be a mortal lock with a victory. The Aztecs still look okay with a loss here but still vulnerable.
Colorado State must be Nevada or their bubble will officially burst. Will need an additional win and a trip to the MWC finals to move closer to the cut line.
San Jose State, Nevada, and UNLV lurk as potential bid stealers.
SEC
Texas can possibly move back into the field with a win over Texas A&M. A loss means the Longhorns remain out but still will receive decent consideration.
Arkansas in pretty good shape can stay above Dayton with a win over Ole Miss.
Oklahoma has rectified any issue with the resume and now playing for a possible 9 seed if they can knock off Kentucky
go check out Oklahomas resume... 7 Quad 1 wins...8-10 vs field...non conference wins over Louisville, Arizona, Michigan, Q1: 7-10. Q1/2: 11-11, Q1/2/3: 13-12. SOR/WAB: 36/31. SOS:10/160 NET: 43 road: 3-7 neutral: 6-0
Vandy 5 Q1 wins, 5-12 vs field...no non conference win of note....in league wins over Kentucky, Tennessee, at Texas A&M, Q1: 5-9. Q1/2: 9-12, Q1/2/3: 12-12. SOR/WAB: 43/48, SOS: 20/331. NET: 48 road: 3-7 neutral: 2-2
Balancing out the bigger wins for Vandy vs the overall amount of wins and non conference stuff for Oklahoma will be the decider here. I think the difference here is the road/neutral mark of 9-7 vs 5-9 plus the non conference sos
Oklahoma started 10-0 then went in free fall. 2 weeks ago they were 4-12 in the SEC. They have won a few since but that team is not beating Louisville or Arizona now. They beat Michigan on a fluke 4 point play that Dusty May botched. They could probable beat Michigan who will likely go out quickly in the tourney. I do not have them as high as you because they have been mediocre their last 22 games
um how many times do i have to tell you..body of work, it makes no difference they were 4-12 or 10-0
committee loves non conference stuff and they also love to penalize schools who played trash non conference like Vandy did.
No one cares how close the games were they just see quality wins. You are falling into the narrative set in late January/February with bubble talk..things change. Vandy lost last 3 adding zero to their profile while other SEC schools are building their profile. Oklahoma has picked up 4 Quad 1 wins the past 17 days.
Good discussion, I like the banter about this. There is a big drop off from the first 3 on my 9 line to the last 9...like gigantic. Very close all those 10s and 11s right now.
Duke tied it at 31, but Flagg left with an ankle injury and was spotted in a wheelchair
Oregon on a 12-2 run and Indiana looks like they will lose
Honestly they do not pass the eye test and they really have done nothing to deserve a bid.....2-10 vs field...just a win at Michigan State and at Purdue...4-13 in Q1 games
really speaks to how awful the bubble truly is that they still have a greater than 50/50 shot to get in
Honestly they do not pass the eye test and they really have done nothing to deserve a bid.....2-10 vs field...just a win at Michigan State and at Purdue...4-13 in Q1 games
really speaks to how awful the bubble truly is that they still have a greater than 50/50 shot to get in
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