Not sure, but if there's gonna be a first, you know it's gonna be us.
BACATOLOGY: 3/3 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS UPDATE****RUTGERS PROJECTED 10 SEED****
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Wachtel still saying that Rutgers has a chance even if they lose to Michigan. This board in shambles.
It would be the the Most Rutgers-est thing to happen to us. I wouldn't complain but I want to see new matchups not rehashed one we see 3 or 4 times every two years in conference.
of course they have a shot....no real clarity until saturday probably with that, but depending on bid stealers and 1st 4 out playing their games in conf tourneys, will be a ton of variables
PSU situation is weird bc if they make the field it gives us 2 more wins against the field... unless they are making the field and taking our spot
The OSU game setting up to be potentially the biggest RU screw of all time
The OSU game setting up to be potentially the biggest RU screw of all time
We needs to predict based on the inevitable loss Thursday . Are we getting in with the loss to Michigan ?
Depends on other scores. Root against everyone else in his last 4 in/first 8 out. And hope for no bid stealers.
2 wins against tournament likely teams should be automatically excluded from an at large bid
I posted on another thread that our resume deserves a 10 seed starting when we were a 5-6 seed after beating MSU at MSG on February 4 and then losing MAG in that game. We are 2-6 since then and won at Wisconsin and at Penn State , 2 bubble teams or teams barely in , we lost to Indiana and Illinois on the road by less than double digits and they are projected as a 4 and 7 seed. We lost home to Nebraska , who beat Wisconsin just before us , and beat Maryland , a 8 seed , NW a 6 seed , Iowa a7 seed and blew a 15 point halftime lead to MSU , a 6 seed . So not as terrible a loss. A loss against Michigan , out but on the bubble but have loss 3 straight OT games to teams in the field and look lik a tourney team. Minnesota a terrible loss but a game we lead wire to wire until 1/2 second left and controlled by 7-14 points most of the way.
So you can move us from 5/6 but moving us 5/6 seed lines is ridiculous. This is regardless of our not looking like a tourney team right now.
Iowa State lost 4 in a row after the Committee revealed them as a 3 seed 3 weeks ago and got blown out in some and they are still projected as a 5/6/7. So a 2-4 seed drop is reasonable. Dropping us 5-6 seeds is objectively unfair. We should be a solid 10 today v
So you can move us from 5/6 but moving us 5/6 seed lines is ridiculous. This is regardless of our not looking like a tourney team right now.
Iowa State lost 4 in a row after the Committee revealed them as a 3 seed 3 weeks ago and got blown out in some and they are still projected as a 5/6/7. So a 2-4 seed drop is reasonable. Dropping us 5-6 seeds is objectively unfair. We should be a solid 10 today v
Rutgers also had a lot more opportunities to beat tournament teams. They should have more wins vs the fields. Arizona state played one big ten team and beat them by 20.
On top of that we have 6 Quad 1 wins that should be considered 7 for OSU with the admitted mistake and apology ( Committee should definitely consider ) with those being at Purdue at Northwestern at Wisconsin and at Penn State , 4 road wins over teams solidly in the field or on the bubble. Ohio State would be another on road but not a team in the field.
If two B1G teams are the last 4 in its kind of fitting to have them play each other in the first four game
Although I'd like to see a fresh matchup
They also had 11-9 conference record in a terrible conference this year
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It’s not that simple. Even Wachtel says the RU-Michigan winner still may not make it,
He’s saying that because slim chance rutgers wins. When Michigan wins , everyone will declare them in
Yea I’m no saying they’re great or anything. Just saying that it’s hard to pick up wins vs the field when you don’t play many of those teams.
Our most likely path to the Big Ten Championship is Michigan, Purdue, Michigan State, Indiana.
As things stand now:
Win championship (~3% / 22-13): 6 seed
Lose in finals (~3% / 21-14): 8 seed
Lose in semis (~7% / 20-14): 10 seed
Lose in quarters (~39% / 19-14): 11 seed (Last 4 in)
Lose in 2nd rd (~48% / 18-14): Out
Today rooting for:
St. Thomas (20%) over Oral Roberts
UNC Wilmington (24%) over Hofstra
As things stand now:
Win championship (~3% / 22-13): 6 seed
Lose in finals (~3% / 21-14): 8 seed
Lose in semis (~7% / 20-14): 10 seed
Lose in quarters (~39% / 19-14): 11 seed (Last 4 in)
Lose in 2nd rd (~48% / 18-14): Out
Today rooting for:
St. Thomas (20%) over Oral Roberts
UNC Wilmington (24%) over Hofstra
Arizona lost to 312 Texas Southern and feasted on beyond mediocrity from Pac 12. They also lost to San Francisco by 37
Because Michigan needs to win 2 more games to secure a bid.
Yes but that doesn’t change the fact that Rutgers has more opportunities at good wins
i think you are playing with fire....why not just have them win it all, they havent loss a conference game yet
Oh yeah agree. But slightly better for them to lose today instead of the final I guess is my point.
Their tourney is being played in South Dakota, could definitely see Oral Roberts losing to South Dakota State in the final if both progress tonight.
If it's two teams, they will avoid having them play each other...3, and it's unavoidable.
Oral is such an overwhelming favorite in that conference that I'm hoping that they win it so that there is zero chance the Summit becomes two bids. I know Oral is a longshot, but rather not have them under consideration. Their current 4 losses are very strong (but their only good win over Liberty looks even weaker today).
edit - I typed this up earlier but got sidetracked...seems bac already covered my thoughts
I like they scheduled strong, I think they are a great 12 seed to pick. They already played St Marys so they cannot play them. I think they could do well vs Miami or maybe Indiana if the Hoosier slip a seed
You don't know that for sure. If what Bac and others say about it is "body of work" and not counting heavier what you did at the end of the year, we still have a real good shot to make it.
On halftime just a few minutes ago, Seth Greenberg just gave Purdue, Indiana and Michigan State a good chance to go far in the tournament. We beat all 3. Penn State is considered in the field right now. We beat them TWICE. We beat Northwestern.
Obviously, if there are a bunch of upsets in the conference tournaments, it hurts our chances if we don't win on Thursday.
Best of Luck,
Groz
Hofstra lost to UNC Wilmington. Oral Roberts advances to the Summit Champ Game by defeating St. Thomas.
I grabbed those from Torvik's rooting guide page to be fair. I'm not sure why it thinks Oral Roberts losing would've helped us (or why we care about UNC Wilmington / Hofstra at all, but it seemed to think UNC Wilmington winning was good).
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