BACATOLOGY: 3/6 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS***RUTGERS PROJECTED 11 SEED***

[bac2therac]

Funny how the goal posts keep moving. We were in yesterday before the game most likely. An 11 seed. Could have dropped out with a loss, but find it hard to believe we are still sweating after a win against a bubble team, and with several other bubble teams losing. That MN loss is brutal, but com'on. Pretty sure we are in barring some insanity. And I hope not Dayton.

they only worry is there are one or two schools that can legit steal bids....the CUSA tourney or Oregon or Vandy or Clemson. These are the 4 most likely so until that clears schools that are in that last 6-8 grouping need to sweat a little. I think RU is mainly fine right now. Penn State is more the lock here.

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

Funny how the goal posts keep moving. We were in yesterday before the game most likely. An 11 seed. Could have dropped out with a loss, but find it hard to believe we are still sweating after a win against a bubble team, and with several other bubble teams losing. That MN loss is brutal, but com'on. Pretty sure we are in barring some insanity. And I hope not Dayton.

Totally agree. Issue is teams playing their way in with big wins (see ASU) last night. But agree a Q1 win yesterday is no better than one in December.

 

[bac2therac]

We haven't been blown out all year. I see this being a pretty low scoring game

true but you know from how we play and how Purdue plays, Purdue might be due, just want us to hang in if things start to get ugly

 

[koko2315]

Funny how the goal posts keep moving. We were in yesterday before the game most likely. An 11 seed. Could have dropped out with a loss, but find it hard to believe we are still sweating after a win against a bubble team, and with several other bubble teams losing. That MN loss is brutal, but com'on. Pretty sure we are in barring some insanity. And I hope not Dayton.

yesterday was a point in time, before the game took place, yes we were in. if we had lost we would have been on outside looking in.
Yes some games broke right, and we took care of business, but still need to have more teams "in the clubhouse" so to speak

 

[RUChoppin]

We haven't been blown out all year. I see this being a pretty low scoring game

We've lost by 13 twice and 12 once. We slow the game down a lot to limit overall possessions, which limits the potential for a blowout quite a bit.

 

[bac2therac]

in some ways I prefer Oregons resume over both USC and ASU. Oregon has a win over Arizona, ASU, Nevada, USC while playing a tougher schedule than those other schools

 

[bmtRUgrad]

High level question. I've seen a number of brackets have us in Dayton after yesterday's win, but we were in the last four in before the game. How did that not move the needle? I would think that we would be removed from the last four in after beating Michigan.

 

[ceranm]

Has any team been in Dayton back to back? I know cmte doesn’t consider this is a factor but just curious if any precedent .

 

[RUsojo]

High level question. I've seen a number of brackets have us in Dayton after yesterday's win, but we were in the last four in before the game. How did that not move the needle? I would think that we would be removed from the last four in after beating Michigan.

 

[GimmeSomeMore]

I don't really agree.. if we annex wins over Purdue, MSU, Md all in a row I think we would move up.. there's not that much separation between these middle type teams.

Also don’t agree and the reason is to protect 1 seeds - they won’t have an otherwise at large that wins a major conf tourney sitting there in round 2 (3) for a 1-seed. At least that is my best guess

 

[Scarlet Shack]

true but you know from how we play and how Purdue plays, Purdue might be due, just want us to hang in if things start to get ugly

First 10 minutes is critical. They are fresher and might want to make a statement against us and about being a 1 seed (they aren’t a lock ) and they will have initial crowed pump …if we keep it close , the people not for Purdue might even out the crowd sonnw later on and have a shot

 

[bac2therac]

High level question. I've seen a number of brackets have us in Dayton after yesterday's win, but we were in the last four in before the game. How did that not move the needle? I would think that we would be removed from the last four in after beating Michigan.

the issue holding back Rutgers is the 4 Q3 losses, so getting a win over a Q2 does not really changed. The bad on RU's resume is baked in and it cannot be removed. A win over Purdue will definitively end that discussion. Otherwise we sit in the last 6 to 8 schools in the field...and Dayton is real option

 

[Mr Magoo]

High level question. I've seen a number of brackets have us in Dayton after yesterday's win, but we were in the last four in before the game. How did that not move the needle? I would think that we would be removed from the last four in after beating Michigan.

Not if other teams slightly behind us had better wins than us. For example, PSU might have been slightly behind us, but their win over Illinois is a slightly better win than ours over Michigan.

Teams like Vandy, Clemson, etc (and us!), will naturally be playing better competition in the league tournaments if they continue to win.

 

[koko2315]

Has any team been in Dayton back to back? I know cmte doesn’t consider this is a factor but just curious if any precedent .

no

 

[rufeelinit]

Appreciate all the work done to keep this thread updated. The discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of each team vying for the remaining spots confirms to me that it is a very bad idea to consider expanding the field of the tournament further.

 

[RUtrumpet92]

no

Actually, Arizona State was sent to Dayton in 2018 (lost to Syracuse) and 2019 (beat St. John's).

 

[biazza38]

This has been a lot of fun.

 

[gmay8]

Is a 12 seed out of the question? I see so many posts about an 11 seed, last 4 in, dayton 11 seed.... is it possible we just drop down to a 12 seed and are in? Wisconsin was listed as a tentative 12 seed in a bracket i saw before they lost... why is a 12 seed out of the question?

 

[bac2therac]

Morning Update

10 SEEDS

• PENN STATE
• AUBURN
• USC
• PROVIDENCE

11 SEEDS

• RUTGERS
• MISSISISSIPPI STATE
• ARIZONA STATE
• UTAH STATE
• PITTSBURGH
• NORTH CAROLINA STATE

FIRST 4 OUT

• CLEMSON
• OREGON
• NEVADA
• OKLAHOMA STATE

NEXT 4 OUT

• WISCONSIN
• NORTH CAROLINA
• VANDERBILT
• NORTH TEXAS

To me I am not really worried about Vandy winning the SEC

I think if Clemson gets in they steal a bid from NC State and Pitt.

The only school I am worried about right now is Oregon. Winning the Pac 12 tourney will steal a bid and that is where Rutgers becomes vulnerable because its likely not to be Utah State where that bid comes from.

 

[fluoxetine]

Is a 12 seed out of the question? I see so many posts about an 11 seed, last 4 in, dayton 11 seed.... is it possible we just drop down to a 12 seed and are in? Wisconsin was listed as a tentative 12 seed in a bracket i saw before they lost... why is a 12 seed out of the question?

It would require Charleston to get an 11 which isn't that likely.

 

[bac2therac]

Is a 12 seed out of the question? I see so many posts about an 11 seed, last 4 in, dayton 11 seed.... is it possible we just drop down to a 12 seed and are in? Wisconsin was listed as a tentative 12 seed in a bracket i saw before they lost... why is a 12 seed out of the question?

it could happen if the committee puts Oral Roberts and Charleston as 11 seeds. The play in games could be 12s...actually they could also split it up..give Charleston 11 seed and the plays in would be one on the 11 line and one on the 12 line

 

[fatsam98]

It would require Charleston to get an 11 which isn't that likely.

Or Oral Roberts

 

[koko2315]

Morning Update

10 SEEDS

• PENN STATE
• AUBURN
• USC
• PROVIDENCE

11 SEEDS

• RUTGERS
• MISSISISSIPPI STATE
• ARIZONA STATE
• UTAH STATE
• PITTSBURGH
• NORTH CAROLINA STATE

FIRST 4 OUT

• CLEMSON
• OREGON
• NEVADA
• OKLAHOMA STATE

NEXT 5 OUT

• WISCONSIN
• NORTH CAROLINA
• VANDERBILT
• NORTH TEXAS

we can root all over on seeding, but we want/need to have Oregon, Vandy, Clemson "in the clubhouse" today

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

Stinks that we play so early in the day. If we lose, we have to watch all day and see what happens. Would love to have been ASU and USU playing very later.

 

[bac2therac]

we can root all over on seeding, but we want/need to have Oregon, Vandy, Clemson "in the clubhouse" today

yup and most worried about Oregon..biggest result of the day besides ours

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

getting ahead of myself...a win leapfrogs us over all the 3 10 seeds in the clubhouse (minus PSU)

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

we can root all over on seeding, but we want/need to have Oregon, Vandy, Clemson "in the clubhouse" today

how about miss st and ASU

 

[Scarlet Blind]

ACC is trash this year outside of Duke, Virginia and Miami, with 5 teams in the Q3/Q4 territory BC, GA Tech, ND, FSU and Louisville.

NC St(23-10) 1-6 7-4, 1/2 8-10, 5-0, 1/2/3 13-10, Q4 10-0, 15wins Q3/4
UNC(20-13) 1-9 6-4, 1/2 7-13, 7-0, 1/2/3 14-13, Q4 6-0, 13wins Q3/4
Clems(23-9) 4-3 3-2, 1/2 7-5, 7-2, 1/2/3 14-7, Q4 9-2, 16wins Q3/4
Pitt(22-11) 4-4 3-5, 1/2 7-9, 5-1, 1/2/3 12-10, Q4 10-1, 15wins Q3/4
VaTech(19-14) 3-6 4-5, Q1/2 7-11, 4-2, 1/2/3 11-13, 8-1, 12wins Q3/4

If I were picking a 4th from the 7th rated conference, I would take UNC over any of them because of the SOS, 10 games vs Q1(1-9, win home vs Virginia & worst Q1 loss 12pt @undefeated Indiana Dec), Q2 vs Charleston, N Ohio St, N Mich, vs NC St, @ Cuse, vs Clemson, 27 out of 33 vs Q1-3.

NC St Q1 vs Duke 84-60, multiple double digit Q1s losses, best Q2s vs Miami, vs UNC, 5 Q2s vs bubble/NIT teams, best road W VaTech, Wake
Clemson Q1 @Pitt, vs Duke, @ NC St, N NC St, Q2 vs Penn St, vs NC St, @ VaTech
Pitt Q1 @ NW, @ NC St, vs Virginia, @ UNC, Q2s, vs UNC, vs Miami, @ Cuse
VA Tech N Ok St, vs Duke, vs Virginia, Q2 N Penn St, vs UNC, vs Dayton, vs Pitt

Pitt has the 2nd best resume, 3 Q1 road wins. NC St 3rd cleaner but weaker sheet.

 

[Shell21]

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

We are at the stage where we can throw the NEXT 4 OUT who are in the clubhouse as OUT. As in eliminated, no team currently in the field is going to play their way below them,

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

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He is not respecting the moving target of # of real at large bids.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

how about miss st and ASU

Miss St we definitely need to lose.

I personally think ASU may needs an autobid to pass us, but the bracketologists seem way higher on that conference than I am. For instance, I don’t think USC has a better resume than ours. It’s certainly possible the committee takes them over us if they beat Arizona and we lose to Purdue. So yes - we’re rooting against them.

Oregon would need an autobid to pass us. They are tied in the loss column and one win over UCLA (who is down a starter) isn’t propelling them ahead of us.

 

[fatsam98]

Wachtel has us as the highest Dayton seed...

 

[ru66]

The point about keeping it close today for optics -- do you play the fouling game less than 2 min left down 10 and it turns to 15-- 16?

 

[Plum Street]

Wachtel has us as the highest Dayton seed...

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If that guy has us in Dayton , we are in the field of 60

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

The point about keeping it close today for optics -- do you play the fouling game less than 2 min left down 10 and it turns to 15-- 16?

Let’s hope we’re not in that situation. Most important not to perform the way Pitt did.

But the thing is, right now we’re 38 in the NET. Ahead of Nevada, Oklahoma State, NC State, Miss State, Southern Cal, Penn State and Providence.

Staying in the 30s would be huge.

 

[DHajekRC84]

Let’s hope we have one last game of fight left in us.

Huh? One? (I know what you meant)

 

[koko2315]

how about miss st and ASU

yes, but if they are truly ahead of us, fine, just can't have anyone hunting us down from below in the field

 

[koko2315]

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yes, just need to ensure no stealers and those spots are actually up for grabs

 

[DHajekRC84]

true but you know from how we play and how Purdue plays, Purdue might be due, just want us to hang in if things start to get ugly

if the league were smart and if this were the case they'd get the message to Matt to back off when it was over... or tell him in advance. (yeah I know that's far fetched but if I were King lol).