well are you saying RU is overvalued because yes relative to our play we are
BACATOLOGY: 3/6 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS***RUTGERS PROJECTED 11 SEED***
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
3 minutes of Bill Walton and I'm done for tonight. Go USC. Go New Mexico.
because they wanted to give more credit for winning real big quality games, its actually a good thing
I wasn't but I guess that's a good example. it wouldn't effect us but it would the teams who beat us (not that it would have mattered to any of them).
So I'm guessing that he called the Pac 10 "the conference of champions" about 8 times??
Oh I don't disagree. Just for the folks like me who didn't know this and follow Q1-4..its an invisible factor so why not spell tit out?
ok, I need to go to sleep myself. I guess I'll turn that game on.
Bac - Just saw on ESPN that Lunardi has us still as "last 4 in".
Is this prior to today's games and he hasn't updated yet?
Where do you see us now given our win and today's results?
Thanks,
Phil
Is this prior to today's games and he hasn't updated yet?
Where do you see us now given our win and today's results?
Thanks,
Phil
Bac …that’s my entire point about not quad one wins are equal
Well , if not all all quad one are equal …why should all Quad 3 losses not be equal ??
I think when they do the scrub on the last 12-15 teams …they breakdown the metrics mkre
Which helped us immensely last year …
Thisis where I think wachtel is way off
Well , if not all all quad one are equal …why should all Quad 3 losses not be equal ??
I think when they do the scrub on the last 12-15 teams …they breakdown the metrics mkre
Which helped us immensely last year …
Thisis where I think wachtel is way off
He must have been listing his wife's ex-boyfriends.
OK, now I've crossed the line and going to get off the laptop.
Lol... He made reference to him being high twice already. ASU better then the last 4 in. I know it's his shtick but I can't.
Lunardi hasnt even looked at anything yet....he has to factor ncstate and Pitt into the equations and he simply is being lazy right now.
they will see our wins are not as bad but we still have 4 of them. Not very often schools have 4 losses coming from the Q3/4 area
Clemson now another with 2 Q3 and 2 Q4
Last year Dayton was last team out of field with 1 Q3 and 3 Q4.
I tend to think win gets valued more than bad losses if you have enough of them
Loved Pike's comment that RU beat all 4 of the top 4 B1G tourney seeds this year, Purdue, NW, MSU, and IU. We have some very good wins and 2 great road wins (one of which is stellar) and if good wins are important (and they are), I like to think we're easily an 11 seed and could even nab a 10 seed. And the OSU "win."
I can take him in very small doses...I prefer his schtick earlier in the season. Hearing him declare Arizona St, Oregon, and Washington St as all dancing is a bit much for me.
Arizona State blowing USC out. Neither have great resumes but they do both own wins over projected 2 seeds Arizona and UCLA respectively. USC only other win was Auburn and ASU 2s. ASU beat Creighton/VCU. Hard to separate. If you put both in, then what happens if Oregon wins the Pac 12 tourney. Well there is no way they get 5.
ASU up 39-25.
Utah State up on New Mexico 33-24 in the first half
the bid stealers are
Oregon
Vanderbilt
Clemson
San Jose State
Ohio State
North Texas/UAB/Middle Tennessee State
ASU up 39-25.
Utah State up on New Mexico 33-24 in the first half
the bid stealers are
Oregon
Vanderbilt
Clemson
San Jose State
Ohio State
North Texas/UAB/Middle Tennessee State
Reading the Athletics summary you get a good view of the last 15 teams for 8 spots. We better hope no bid stealers come out- if they do we may be a 1 seed in the NIT. We are right in that group of 8-10 for 8 spots IMHO. Just never know what the committee values.
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The Atlantic
The Atlantic covers news, politics, culture, technology, health, and more, through its articles, podcasts, videos, and flagship magazine.
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Assume he means The AthleticThe Atlantic
The Atlantic covers news, politics, culture, technology, health, and more, through its articles, podcasts, videos, and flagship magazine.www.theatlantic.com
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Thats always the issue when you are in that last grouping of 8...you are always vulnerable to be sucked out....only takes 1
So tomorrow AM, ASU who was in only 17 brackets in the matrix will now jump over us too?
@mugrat86 imagine thinking you know more about bracketology than bac
I give bac credit for not having him on ignore
Just reread some of today's thread. Just straight trolling when bac gives soooooo much to this board in terms of analyzing this. It's despicable really
I give bac credit for not having him on ignore
Just reread some of today's thread. Just straight trolling when bac gives soooooo much to this board in terms of analyzing this. It's despicable really
The whole "the committee ignores conference tournaments" thing is overblown. It's more that if you make it to Friday it's hard to pick up a loss that meaningfully impacts your resume. And if you don't make it to Friday you're out of chances to improve.
In the clubhouse: Pitt, NC State, Nevada, Oklahoma State, Providence
Still alive: Rutgers, Utah State, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Clemson, Penn State, Arizona State, Oregon
Some of those teams need big wins but it's so hard to climb now when nobody above them can take a bad loss anymore.
Random thoughts:
Florida Atlantic, assuming they win, is guaranteed to play a quality team in the championship, either North Texas or UAB. That's a dangerous one.
Vanderbilt gets on the radar with a win over Kentucky BUT if Texas A&M didn't get in with a run to the SEC tournament championship last year I don't think Vandy does this year unless the committee basically says A&M should've been in.
Nightmare scenario for the bubble in the PAC 12 is Oregon over Arizona State in the championship. A win over UCLA but a loss to Arizona or ASU isn't enough for Oregon's at large case.
In my estimation Utah State has claimed Nevada's spot and the Mountain West is a three bid league unless San Jose State does the unlikely. They've got the conference's player of the year and Tim Miles can coach.
Clemson is fighting but with a win over Virginia I think they take a bid from NC State or Pitt.
Right now NC State and Providence are the two teams getting the most negative attention as folks really look at their bubble case for the first time in a long time.
Ohio State is a serious bid thief with a win over Michigan State who never seems to take the conference tournament all that seriously.
AAC needs to keep holding the Houston/Memphis firewall. Houston will be fine against ECU but Memphis has two straight tricky ones with UCF and then maybe Tulane next, and the Wave have already beaten Memphis twice. Houston might have to face Temple next, their only conference loss.
Bottom line Rutgers is in a very good spot but not a lock yet. They can lock in with a win today but otherwise they need the rest to sort out. It's likely to break in our favor but nobody thought Georgetown and Oregon State would both win their conference tournaments in 2021. Crazy stuff can happen.
In the clubhouse: Pitt, NC State, Nevada, Oklahoma State, Providence
Still alive: Rutgers, Utah State, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Clemson, Penn State, Arizona State, Oregon
Some of those teams need big wins but it's so hard to climb now when nobody above them can take a bad loss anymore.
Random thoughts:
Florida Atlantic, assuming they win, is guaranteed to play a quality team in the championship, either North Texas or UAB. That's a dangerous one.
Vanderbilt gets on the radar with a win over Kentucky BUT if Texas A&M didn't get in with a run to the SEC tournament championship last year I don't think Vandy does this year unless the committee basically says A&M should've been in.
Nightmare scenario for the bubble in the PAC 12 is Oregon over Arizona State in the championship. A win over UCLA but a loss to Arizona or ASU isn't enough for Oregon's at large case.
In my estimation Utah State has claimed Nevada's spot and the Mountain West is a three bid league unless San Jose State does the unlikely. They've got the conference's player of the year and Tim Miles can coach.
Clemson is fighting but with a win over Virginia I think they take a bid from NC State or Pitt.
Right now NC State and Providence are the two teams getting the most negative attention as folks really look at their bubble case for the first time in a long time.
Ohio State is a serious bid thief with a win over Michigan State who never seems to take the conference tournament all that seriously.
AAC needs to keep holding the Houston/Memphis firewall. Houston will be fine against ECU but Memphis has two straight tricky ones with UCF and then maybe Tulane next, and the Wave have already beaten Memphis twice. Houston might have to face Temple next, their only conference loss.
Bottom line Rutgers is in a very good spot but not a lock yet. They can lock in with a win today but otherwise they need the rest to sort out. It's likely to break in our favor but nobody thought Georgetown and Oregon State would both win their conference tournaments in 2021. Crazy stuff can happen.
VCU if they don’t win A10?
Providence vulnerable and especially Pitt looks very suspect.
Clemson hottest team in ACC and Duke actually looks like Duke.
I encourage everyone to look at the teams from the projected 9 line down through the bubble with this context
Look at teams record versus the projected field based on yesterdays bracket matrix projections
It’s quite enlightening on why who is in and who is not
The one big outlier …is Clemson …who has a 6-3 record right now versus the field , but those bad losses
Rutgers is 7-7 against the field right now …one of the best against anyone from the 9 line through the first four out
Nc state and Oklahoma stage way below .500
Throw that in plus the Ohio state BS, I think we are in good shape, baring pandemonium by the bid stealers
Look at teams record versus the projected field based on yesterdays bracket matrix projections
It’s quite enlightening on why who is in and who is not
The one big outlier …is Clemson …who has a 6-3 record right now versus the field , but those bad losses
Rutgers is 7-7 against the field right now …one of the best against anyone from the 9 line through the first four out
Nc state and Oklahoma stage way below .500
Throw that in plus the Ohio state BS, I think we are in good shape, baring pandemonium by the bid stealers
I don’t think VCU can take a loss and jump us.
While PSU winning hurt us in the direct head to head comparison, it does the opposite against teams like Clemson. A home win over PSU in OT might be Clemson’s second best win after a home win over Duke. The sweep of PSU is comparatively very helpful.
Clemson also doesn’t have the unspoken name on the jersey advantage UNC would have and their losses are not better than ours. Just don’t see them jumping us without an autobid. Yes - they’d have 4 less losses but they basically played a MWC schedule which would make 10 losses a lot. Not seeing it.
Outside of Duke, Clemson’s other 5 wins are all hanging on by a thread - potential Dayton teams and none likely to be better than a 10 seed. NC State (3 times), PSU (in OT) and Pitt.
When you start looking at all 9-11 lines I really like our resume
Recency bias was there for sure
Hopefully yesterday righted the ship
Body of work
Recency bias was there for sure
Hopefully yesterday righted the ship
Body of work
Please let's win today and make all this academic for rutgers.
Well this bodes well and captures a lot of what has been talked about in this thread re: NC State and Pitt.
Bracketville Dave moved us (and PSU) up to the last two 10 seeds. NC State and Pitt in Dayton. Providence down to an 11 seed.
Bracketville Dave moved us (and PSU) up to the last two 10 seeds. NC State and Pitt in Dayton. Providence down to an 11 seed.
And in event of a loss today, maybe we drop a little and end up as one of the top 11 seeds, skip Dayton, avoid 1/2 seeds in 2nd round, probably play closer to home in a pod with a 3 seed.
Although I wouldn't be surprised if we beat Purdue. We match up pretty well. Wonder what happens to our seed in that scenario.
Although I wouldn't be surprised if we beat Purdue. We match up pretty well. Wonder what happens to our seed in that scenario.
