Pitt’s NET dropped like a rock with that blowout yesterday…down to 67th.
BACATOLOGY: 3/6 NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS***RUTGERS PROJECTED 11 SEED***
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
How about A-10 bid stealer? Is VCU at large bid if they lose in conference final?
Today is an enormous day.
We can get a lot of clarity after today’s games
Want Oregon, ASU, Vandy, VCU, Clemson and Nevada to all lose.
I’m probably missing some. Just going off the top of my head
We can get a lot of clarity after today’s games
Want Oregon, ASU, Vandy, VCU, Clemson and Nevada to all lose.
I’m probably missing some. Just going off the top of my head
VCU doesn't have a case with only 1 Q1 win(1-1), 1pt win @Dayton, 15pt loss @ Memphis, and Q1/2 of 3-5, they are 12-0 vs Q3, but 2 Q4 losses. A10 only have 2 other teams considered a Q2 on a neutral, 75 Dayton Q1/2 2-7, and 96 St Louis Q1 0-6 Q1/2 4-8, even if they go 1-1, it's still Q1/2 4-6 with 12-0 Q3. VCU would barely qualify last 8 out.
I knew I was wrong with that one lol.
Riiiiight that’s who San Jose State beat
Is that updated with their loss last night though? Between their website, his Twitter feed, and the updates on TV, I never know what's the latest and greatest with him.
Oops nope it's from last night. Unbelievable how bad ESPN is with this.
Lunardi has been terrible at using social medua but im actually thinking its by design to make oeople actually watch ESPN.
Its also sad that CBS broadcasts the tourney but uses Palm to do brackets. Another guy not in tune with getting the product out there
Its also sad that CBS broadcasts the tourney but uses Palm to do brackets. Another guy not in tune with getting the product out there
I don't think Clemson has done enough yet. Eyeballing Bracket Matrix the math is pretty simple.
LAST 5 IN THE FIELD: Rutgers, Mississippi State, Penn State, and Utah State all won. Nevada lost.
FIRST 5 OUT (the only 5 listed, by the way): Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma State all lost. Arizona State won.
Swap ASU in for Nevada and there's your solid field. Then we deal with party crashers as needed.
LAST 5 IN THE FIELD: Rutgers, Mississippi State, Penn State, and Utah State all won. Nevada lost.
FIRST 5 OUT (the only 5 listed, by the way): Michigan, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma State all lost. Arizona State won.
Swap ASU in for Nevada and there's your solid field. Then we deal with party crashers as needed.
Still sweating with a loss today IMO. Our most likely path to the Big Ten Championship is Purdue, Michigan State, Maryland.
As things stand right now, obviously subject to me not being an expert and also a lot of moving parts:
Win championship (~6%): 7 seed
Lose in finals (~6%): 8 seed
Lose in semis (~13%): 10 seed
Lose in quarters (~75%): 11 seed (first four)
----
For today:
Obviously of greatest importance: Rutgers (25%) over Purdue
From at at-large perspective, in order of impact:
UCLA (78%) over Oregon
Arizona (76%) over Arizona St.
Kentucky (67%) over Vanderbilt
Virginia (55%) over Clemson
Alabama (80%) over Mississippi St.
Northwestern (55%) over Penn St.
UAB (47%) over North Texas
Tennessee (82%) over Missouri
As things stand right now, obviously subject to me not being an expert and also a lot of moving parts:
Win championship (~6%): 7 seed
Lose in finals (~6%): 8 seed
Lose in semis (~13%): 10 seed
Lose in quarters (~75%): 11 seed (first four)
----
For today:
Obviously of greatest importance: Rutgers (25%) over Purdue
From at at-large perspective, in order of impact:
UCLA (78%) over Oregon
Arizona (76%) over Arizona St.
Kentucky (67%) over Vanderbilt
Virginia (55%) over Clemson
Alabama (80%) over Mississippi St.
Northwestern (55%) over Penn St.
UAB (47%) over North Texas
Tennessee (82%) over Missouri
Just to note, an 11 seed doesn't automatically send us to Dayton. If we lose today I'm hoping we are one of the top two 11 seeds.
Even Palm has us ahead of Oklahoma State now.
From a bid-stealer perspective (not in any order, and excluding games I already mentioned for at-large):
American
Temple (32%) over Cincinnati [both potential bid stealers, but Temple less likely to pull it off, and also we played Temple]
Memphis (65%) over UCF
Tulane (56%) over Wichita St. [both potential bid stealers, but Tulane less likely to pull it off]
Houston (97%) over East Carolina
Big Ten
Michigan St. (61%) over Ohio St.
CUSA
UAB (47%) over North Texas [both potential bid stealers, but UAB less likely to pull it off]
Florida Atlantic (79%) over Middle Tennessee
MWC
San Diego St (83%) over San Jose St
---
For Rutgers SOS:
Indiana (48%) over Maryland
Miami FL (42%) over Duke
American
Temple (32%) over Cincinnati [both potential bid stealers, but Temple less likely to pull it off, and also we played Temple]
Memphis (65%) over UCF
Tulane (56%) over Wichita St. [both potential bid stealers, but Tulane less likely to pull it off]
Houston (97%) over East Carolina
Big Ten
Michigan St. (61%) over Ohio St.
CUSA
UAB (47%) over North Texas [both potential bid stealers, but UAB less likely to pull it off]
Florida Atlantic (79%) over Middle Tennessee
MWC
San Diego St (83%) over San Jose St
---
For Rutgers SOS:
Indiana (48%) over Maryland
Miami FL (42%) over Duke
Has their been an update from Lunardi since what on their espn site last night at 8 pm …I didn’t see one on Twitter ?
Just as Pitt and NC State damaged their profiles with huge losses yesterday, Rutgers cannot afford to lose by 20 plus points
Oklahoma State in the bubble discussion amazes me. Metrics keep them hanging around but their resume is bad compared to most other bubblers and they almost never pass the “eye test”. In fact, every time I’ve seen them, they have looked like us when we played NW Sunday night.
Edey in early foul trouble helped set the stage for our win at Purdue. Conversely, Cliff needs to stop with the silly fouls, or the game could go downhill fast. We might need Wolf’s 3-4 fouls today. Otherwise, we match up pretty well with them.
You’re putting too much emphasis on the conference tournament for us . We are not moving up to a 7 seed under any scenario .
i keep hearing recent performances are not weighted higher...is that BS?
Why would losing by 20 on 3/10 be any different than losing by 20 1/10?
I am starting to feel (forgetting the idol) with a loss to Michigan our chances would be close to toast right now
Probably right. I had more confidence in that scenario this time yesterday, but with all the moving parts, I think we would have been toast. Michigan also would have jumped over us.
I don't really agree.. if we annex wins over Purdue, MSU, Md all in a row I think we would move up.. there's not that much separation between these middle type teams.
I’m not understanding why so many Bracketologists think USC is so comfortably ahead of us. They have 2 home wins over UCLA and Auburn. Would likely need Arizona State to beat Arizona to add another field team to the mix.
That’s not exactly a profile that well absorbs a home loss to Florida Gulf Coast and a loss at Oregon State (arguably a worse pair of losses than @ Minny and Temple (neutral)).
Now I know we have more losses than them (and SHU and Nebraska are pretty bad ones) but our wins are just so much better. @ Purdue > UCLA (home). Indiana > Auburn. They’ve got nothing compared to @ NW, Maryland, Michigan State (MSG). We swept PSU and they swept ASU in regular season (consider that a wash). We won @ Wisconsin while they lost to them on a neutral floor. We are ahead of them in the NET.
BAC - what am I missing here?
That’s not exactly a profile that well absorbs a home loss to Florida Gulf Coast and a loss at Oregon State (arguably a worse pair of losses than @ Minny and Temple (neutral)).
Now I know we have more losses than them (and SHU and Nebraska are pretty bad ones) but our wins are just so much better. @ Purdue > UCLA (home). Indiana > Auburn. They’ve got nothing compared to @ NW, Maryland, Michigan State (MSG). We swept PSU and they swept ASU in regular season (consider that a wash). We won @ Wisconsin while they lost to them on a neutral floor. We are ahead of them in the NET.
BAC - what am I missing here?
I like Edey on the court scoring 35 and having the other 4 players on the court out of rythmn. Hunter had his way against us until he didnt
This. It’s actually a bigger deal than most think. Currently we have two 13 point losses. Nothing bigger than that. While we don’t have a clean profile in terms of the opponents we’ve lost to, there’d be something to be said for avoiding getting truly taken to the woodshed even once in an entire season. It’d sure be shame for that one occurrence to be the last memory we provide for the committee. Let’s hope we have one last game of fight left in us.
I think the uncertainty are the 3 bubbles in the ACC. I do not think Pitt and NC State are safe even if they look safely in on the matrix. Clemson has thrown a wrinkle into this...I do not think the ACC gets 6 bids so someone is out.
Funny how the goal posts keep moving. We were in yesterday before the game most likely. An 11 seed. Could have dropped out with a loss, but find it hard to believe we are still sweating after a win against a bubble team, and with several other bubble teams losing. That MN loss is brutal, but com'on. Pretty sure we are in barring some insanity. And I hope not Dayton.
lot of bracketologists are very metric driven. They love that USC has 10 wins in Q1/2 and I am with you here, I dont think their resume is all that hot. Now with ASU in the field though its 4 wins vs the field. I see that Q4 loss everyone ignoring. They looked horrible last night. The win vs UCLA is being overvalued and I while I dont think they are in trouble per se, what if Oregon wins the conference tourney, do 5 schools need to go.
USC and ASU are in the field because they beat UCLA and Arizona respectively but somehow Rutgers road win at Purdue should be ignored despite a bunch of additional quality wins just because they took 4 Q3 losses which are better than alot of schools 2 Q4 losses..see Utah State
We haven't been blown out all year. I see this being a pretty low scoring game
