Okay here is the update after some serious numbers crunching.. You know the drill. Grab a cup of java and come in. Questions, comments, cheers and jeers are encouraged if not required.
Let's start this by identifying the one bid conferences and the school that are projected to receive an automatic bid. There are 22 conferences projected as one bid leagues
VERMONT AmerEast
NORTH FLORIDA Atl Sun
MONTANA Big Sky
WINTHROP Big South
UC IRVINE Big West
HOFSTRA CAA
NORTH TEXAS CUSA
WRIGHT ST Horizon
YALE Ivy
ST PETER'S MAAC
BOWLING GREEN MAC
NC CENTRAL MEAC
NO IOWA MVC
ROBERT MORRIS Northeast
AUSTIN PEAY OVC
COLGATE Patriot
FURMAN Southern
SFA Southland
PRAIRIE VIEW SWAC
SO DAKOTA ST Summit
LITTLE ROCK Sun Belt
N MEXICO ST WAC
Here are who I think are locks and their projected seedings as of today. There are 10 multi bid conferences.There are 36 at large bids and I have locked in 15 at large bids leaving 21 bids still available. I made the locks all the way down to the 6 line.
1: BAYLOR (BIG 12), KANSAS, SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC), GONZAGA (WCC)
2: MARYLAND (BIG 10), DUKE (ACC), DAYTON (A10), FLORIDA STATE
3: LOUISVILLE, SETON HALL (BIG EAST), VILLANOVA, PENN STATE
4: CREIGHTON, WEST VIRGINIA, AUBURN, ARIZONA
5: OREGON (PAC 12), BUTLER, COLORADO, KENTUCKY (SEC)
6: MICHIGAN STATE, OHIO STATE, MARQUETTE, IOWA
HERE IS THE PECKING ORDER
7 SEEDS
1. (26) MICHIGAN 16-9: Q1: 5-8, Q2: 4-1, road: 2-5, 4 neutral wins, SOS 61
Wolverines look set here. After a wobbly January which saw them lose 5 of 6 at one point, UM has regained some of the early season form that led to that notable win over Gonzaga, the only school to beat the Zags this year. League highlights include Michigan State, Iowa, Rutgers, Purdue and Indiana and do not forget another strong OOC win over Creighton. 4 of the next 6 are the on road in pretty hostile environments..RU/Purd/OSU/MD. Probably would need only one win at home to get in but getting one road win would keep Michigan away from any issues before heading into what should be a wild Big 10 tounament
2. (31) WISCONSIN 15-10: Q1: 7-8, Q2: 1-1, road: 4-6, SOS 16
No team on this list has more Quad 1 wins than the Badgers have and the no school comes close to playing 15 total Quad 1 games like the Badgers have. This is a battle tested and NCAA ready team. The wins here are impressive: Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, at Penn State, Marquette, Indiana. Long forgotten was their slow start which included a Q3 loss to New Mexico and what now is a Q1 loss to Richmond. Get 4 of last 6 at home is a relative softer gauntlet than most in the Big 10. Because the overall loss total is bulky at 10, they probably still need to win 2 stay a few games over 500 and lock themselves in
3. (21) TEXAS TECH 16-9: Q; 2-8, Q2: 5-1, road: 2-5, 2 neutral wins, SOS 66
Red Raiders a bit light on Quad 1 wins right now but the two they have are legit in WVU and a neutral site win over Louisville. Those are the kind of wins of you want on a profile that is rather middling if you look at the SOS and road mark. Their only other quality win is Oklahoma so that is just 3 wins vs tournament projected schools which is a pretty low number. Their loss over the weekend at Oklahoma State counts as Q1 really in name only. Navigating the last 6 will be a bit tricky since they include games at Baylor and Oklahoma and home to Kansas. Would like to see them win one of those and without slipping up in the other 3 games against lesser.
4. (29) LSU 18-7: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 8-1, road:4-4, SOS 17
Tigers have sputtered the last two weeks losing 3 of their last 4 and the profile is starting to sag a bit. Just 2 quad 1 wins...one vs bubble Rhode Island, the other at Tennessee who is not a tourney team. The good news is they 8 quad 2 wins, scattered in their are wins over tourney bound Liberty and Florida and last team in Alabama. But it is also interesting to note the bubbles schools they have lost to....USC, Utah State, VCU, Alabama. East Tennessee State. Its likely LSU is going to need to pick up some quality wins in the SEC where all wins are not quality. A potentially perilous 3 game stretch awaits for them vs Kentucky and road games at So Carolina and Florida. Tigers need to find more than one win or they are going to find themselve sliding toward the last 8 in line.
8 SEEDS
5. (23) BYU 20-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 3-3, road: 5-5, 4 neutral wins, SOS 46
Cougars avoided a disasterous loss in the closing seconds at 8-19 San Diego. That loss could have put them squarely on the bubble. Such is life in the WCC where everyone but Gonzaga and St Mary's is a potential booby trap. The Cougars may be light on Q1 and Q2 wins but they have that clean high mid major profile we see every year. Strong OOC of 9, strong road/neutral profile with 9 wins and most importantly no bad losses. Yes 15 of their 20 wins are to Q3 and Q4. The important wins here are Houston, St Mary's and Utah State. How about those losses...Gonzaga, San Diego State and Kansas so you know why their overall NET and OOC SOS is so good. There will be one more crack at Gonzaga. No doubt a win there locks them, obviously a loss will not hurt them but BYU probably wants to take care of Santa Clara/at Pepperdine and that should be enough for them.
6. (38) ILLINOIS 15-9: Q1: 5-7, Q2: 2-2, road: 4-5, SOS 55
The Illini head to Penn State in desperate need of snapping their 4 game losing skid. Gone are the hopes of winning a Big 10 title, the Illini are just looking to stop the bleeding to make sure they do not start to fall near the last 8 in line. There is a lot good here. Three road conference wins vs tourney teams consisting of Wisconsin and a sweep of Purdue and Michigan. Do not forget the win over Rutgers. The injury to Dosunmu is enormous for them going forward so they will need to get him back in the lineup. Note the selection committee will factoring in injuries when evaluating teams but this losing streak started before he was hurt. There is some light though, after PSU, games vs Northwestern, Nebraska, Indiana offer the opportunity to get back on track. Those 3 wins would probably be enough regardless of what the Illini do at Ohio State and home to Iowa.
7. (30) RUTGERS 17-8: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 5-1, road: 1-6, SOS 57
Scarlet Knights remained perfect at the RAC moving to 17-0 on the season notching another quality victory with the win over Illinois. Rutgers has some really nice wins at the RAC. The Penn State win is looking really sexy now. The Seton Hall win is the coveted quality non conference win. Wins at home vs tourney teams Illinois, Indiana, Purdue and SF Austin gives RU a solid 6 wins vs projected tourney teams. However the Knights are down to just 2 Quad 1 wins as the profiles of schools like Purdue, Indiana, Illinois and Minnesota are starting to fade...and the latter is no longer a projected NCAA school. Its a nice profile but the big issue and it will be talked about until it happens is the hideous road mark of 1-6 and adding in the neutral losses to Pitt and St Bonnies is an awful 1-8. It most certainly is a criteria the NCAA looks at. Yet one win from RU vs any of the 3 remaining road games would end the concern. Any win would be a Quad 1 and along with a win at home vs Michigan or Maryland which also would be Q1 wins would likely propel RU into the tournament for the first time since 1991. If the Knights fail to get a road and maybe split at home to finish 18-12 well that is the situation where RU slides down the list and the road mark will be looked at. Never want to let the committee use an evaluation tool to justify leaving a team out. That being said the Scarlet Knights have proven themselves capable of competing in a road environment albeit without winning. These are single digit road losses they are suffering all to tournament teams. Do not forget Rutgers can legitimately make a run in the Big 10 tourney as well. There are many scenarios where Rutgers can punch their dance ticket. Just know right now they sit in a pretty good spot currently based on body of work.
8. (34) ST MARY'S 20-6: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 3-1, 2 Q3 losses, road: 5-2, 4 neutral wins, SOS 71
The Gaels, like BYU, have a mission to navigate those WCC landmines before the end of the season. Two games at home vs bottom feeder Loyola and San Diego await before the closing critical duo at Santa Clara and Gonzaga. STMU was wacked by the Zags a week ago so it's hard to imagine them winning at their place. The question becomes is that Santa Clara game a must win. I would say so, if they want to lock in before the WCC tourney. There are good wins here...they split with BYU and have very impressive non conference wins over Wisconsin and a 30 point drubbing of Arizona State plus a win over bubble Utah State. However 2 Q3 losses...one at home to Santa Clara and another to Winthrop. Not sure that getting swept by Santa Clara is going to be looked at as anything other than a huge negative when the committee is evaluating the Gaels. Need to keep winning.
9 SEEDS
9. (27) HOUSTON 20-6: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 7-2, road: 6-4, 3 neutral wins, SOS 87
Cougars overtime loss to SMU knocked them out of first in the AAC giving Cincinnati the projected autobid and sending the Cougars to the at large pool. Its a nice sheer win total and overall NET doing quite well at 27 yet a further look deeper into their profile shows its mainly riding on a sweep of Wichita State who I am projecting as a last 4 in school. Besides that there is a win over bubble South Carolina and a win over SMU but these are not tourney teams. There are only two Q1 opportunities left for them in the AAC slate and one of them Memphis is not a tourney team either. So its likely that Cincinnati game becomes a must win not only for the AAC regular season title but also for the Cougars at large chances. Still there are no bad losses here and there is something to be said for winning 7 Quad 2 games. Do not see the AAC getting more than 3 and Houston's profile is still the best of any school in the league but they simply need to keep winning.
10. (35) FLORIDA 16-9: Q1:3-6, Q2: 3-3, road: 3-5, 4 neutral wins, SOS 41
Gators taking care of business vs the dregs of the SEC which is always needed this time of year. Resume is a work in process with a nice base but needing some added beef. That could be provided by their upcoming gauntlet with 4 Q1 opportunities in their last 6 including 2 vs Kentucky and a home tilt with LSU. Gators will make or break their case over the last 6 and probably a split of these game should be enough to lock them in. Their big win of course was their 22 point drubbing of league leading Auburn. The biggest OOC win was Xavier and that win is starting to look better by the day. Wins vs very bubblicious Alabama, Providence and So Carolina but also losses to equally bubblicious Utah State and Mississippi State
11. (47) OKLAHOMA 15-9: Q1: 2-8, Q2: 7-1, road: 2-7, 3 neutral wins, SOS 39
Sooners have that big win over West Virginia and the 7 wins in Q2 is solid but hold everything. OU has just one win over a projected tourney team, two if you add in North Texas. That is a huge red flag and no matter how good the WVU win was, it will not cut it until more Q1 wins are added. Wins vs Minnesota, Missouri, Oregon State are not going to cut it. Not all Q1 and 2 losses are created equally and losses to bottom feeders Iowa State and Kansas State are not a positive no matter what quadrant they fall in. The last 6 could be bust or boon for their profile. First up is a home game with #1 Baylor and the significance o a win there does not have to be explained. Texas Tech at home will offer the best chance of a win but some tough road games at WVU, Oklahoma State and TCU have the potential to really put the Sooners in danger zone. Think they will need to win 4 of these 6 to remain on the good side of the bubble and it will certainly not be easy.
12. (50) ARIZONA STATE 17-8: Q1: 4-6, Q2: 3-2, road: 6-3, SOS 26
The surging Sun Devils have won 5 in a row and 7 of 8 while notching a needed Q1 win..Arizona and another Q2 in USC. That Stanford win is Q1 but the Cardinal have played their way out of the tourney so that win is losing some luster. Unfortunately ASU did not do much at all OOC getting waxed by 40 to St Mary's and losing to bubble Virginia. Their best OOC is just St John's. That is why they will need to notch at least one more big conference win. Only 2 Q1 opportunities left, home to Oregon which is up next and later at USC. Fail to get at least one and it looks like they will need to hold serve in their other 4 games. Its an okay profile but work to do.
10 SEEDS
13. (55) VIRGINIA 17-7: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 4-3, road: 4-4, 2 neutral wins, SOS 69
Cavs survived 2 nailbiters to continue to stay on the right side of the bubble. Without many quality wins or potential quality wins in the mediocrity called the ACC, UVA simply had to keep avoiding bad losses. Two Q1 games remain later in the year both at home vs Louisville and Duke. A win in either probably emphatically stamps their dance ticket. The resume is riding mainly on that win over Florida State but that neutral site win over ASU looking better. Still if you add in Vermont, the Cavs only have 3 wins over tourney teams. Plus there are losses to bubbles So Carolina and NC State and a Q3 loss to BC. Road games at Pitt/VT.Mia offer potential booby traps games to disrupt their profile. Going to be interesting to see how this one plays out.
NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
14. (39) XAVIER 17-9: Q1: 2-8, Q2: 6-1, road: 3-5, 2 neutral wins, SOS 19
Xavier survived at SJU to put themselves in position in the final 3 weeks. Just 2 wins in 10 tries vs Q1 but yet only the win over SHU matters and its certainly a big one. 6 Q2 wins very solid but again only one vs a projected tourney team in Cincy. Sure there are wins vs Gtown and Providence that are okay but this profile needs more down the stretch. Opportunity awaits as Nova pays a visit. A win there and that solves alot of problems but if not there is a deadly stretch of 3 to finish at Gtown, at Providence and home to Butler. I know the SOS is strong but you wonder how many more losses the Muskateers can absorb. Probably need to split these 4 and it will not be an easy task.
15. (49) USC 19-7: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 6-0, road: 5-4, 3 neutral wins, SOS 65
Trojans halted a 3 game losing streak with a sweep of the Washington schools but actually find themselves moving down the pecking order. That will happen when you only had 2 Quadrant 1 victories and only 1 is tourney team. Yes they are 8-6 in the first 2 quads but now with Stanford projected out of the field, LSU who is sagging themselves is the only tourney team that USC has defeated. Their best OOC win was Nevada. Opportunity or heartache awaits with a deadly two game road trip to Utah and Colorado followed by home games vs the Arizona schools. USC will need two of these for sure but maybe even both Arizona schools. In some limited viewing of them this year, they did not seem to pass the eye test so they have alot to prove.
11 SEEDS
CINCINNATI (AAC)
16. (63) INDIANA 16-9: Q1: 4-7, Q2: 2-2, road: 1-6, 2 neutral wins, SOS 48
Hoosiers are in some trouble after being walloped by Michigan losing for the 5th time in 6 tries. The overall NET continues to be the worst among projected schools in at 63 and that is never a place you want to be. The road mark of 1-6 which shows just a win at Nebraska is another red flag. Plus the schedule looks brutal down the stretch with road trips to bubbles Purdue and Minnesota plus Illinois and home games vs PSU, Minny and Wisconsin. At worst they need to win all those homes but probably need to add a road win as well. Its a tough challenge for a team that just looks disorganized in general, capable of a good performance here but does not really pass the eye test. Obviously no one can take away the quality wins over Michigan State, Ohio State, and Iowa plus a big feather in their cap win over Florida State. That is why they are still in as of now. Its more than enough base but there seems to be more than enough trending downward to really have them panicking at this point.
17. (32) RHODE ISLAND 19-6: Q1: 1-4, Q2: 5-1, road: 6-4, SOS 44
Rams really have a very meh resume. Riding a great overall NET and that 19-6 mark and their wins are more okay than anything impressive. The sweep over VCU really has lost its luster since VCU has played their way out of the tourney. Just a neutral site win over LSU and a win over last in Alabama. There is a win over North Texas and Providence. Rams lost to bubble Richmond and a potentially costly loss at Brown.The strong OOC schedule at 29 which featured losses to Maryland and WVU plus the overall at 44 helped by Dayton's season going to be their ace in the hole for the committee. A home game vs Dayton looms so that is major opportunity to lock in but their main job is to avoid pitfalls on the road vs very weak sauce A10 programs.
PLAY IN 11 SEEDS
18. (46) WICHITA STATE 19-6: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 6-3, road: 4-3, SOS 80
Shockers still holding on but seem to be creeping each day to the last in line. That is going to happen when you have to just 2 Q1 wins and neither is to a tourney team. Wins over UConn and OK State will not move the needle. The Q2 win over Oklahoma is truly their best but what after that. Wins over wrong side of the bubble VCU, Memphis,and South Caroina. WSU was swept by Houston in league play and lost to Cincy/Tulsa. No real bad losses per se but its hard to argue that this is a team that deserves to be an at large. Schedule features 3 key road games but none more important than at Cincy. May be a must win there with trips to Memphis and SMU to come. I cannot see how they can hold on in the field if they lose 2 more times. Likely to need a strong AAC tourney performance
19. (33) PURDUE 14-12: Q1: 3-9, Q2: 4-1, 2 Q3 losses, road: 3-7, SOS 63
Boilermakers slide down into the first four slate of games simply because that 14-12 record is looking dangerous. No team since Georgia (16-14) back in I believe 2001 has made it to the NCAA being less than 4 games above 500. Purdue is going to test history. Obviously there is a lot to like here. Huge wins over Iowa and Michigan State. Wins over Indiana, Wisconsin, OOC over Virginia, wins over wrong side of the bubble VCU and Minny. They have enough wins to justify a selection, its just alot of losses at this point. Thats when the committee might consider those 2 Quad 3 losses to Nebraska and Texas. Their task is simple, keep winning more than you lose and that is a tough thing to do in the Big 10 where almost every night you are playing a tourney team. Their easiest path may be to just win the home games of Indiana/Mich/RU and they could sustain the losses on the road to Wisconsin and Iowa. It would put the Boilers at 17-14 and probably annexing a B10 tourney win would given them enough cushion given their quality wins to dance. But need to stress the margin of error is slim at this point, head into the B10 tourney at 16-15 and its a very treacherous spot to be in.
PLAY IN 12 SEEDS
20. (43) GEORGETOWN 15-10: Q1: 5-9, Q2: 4-1, road: 4-4, SOS 4
Hoyas rose from the nether regions of the bubble taking advantage of its soft underbelly with a crucial road win at Butler. The Hoyas may have 5 Quad 1 victories and 9 total from Q1 and 2 but before Butler only one of them was to a tourney team and that was Creighton. Wins over the likes of St Johns, Ok State and SMU on the road are not the type to land you into the tourney. A road win at Butler puts the Hoyas in play and that SOS of 4 is going to be cherished by the selection committee. Just 6 of their 25 games played outside of Quadrants 1 and 2. Still there is work to do to maintain their position inside the field. Their remaining 6 is deadly. Gtown needs to grab those easier opportunites which means home wins over bubble Providence and Xavier and at De Paul if not it means stealing one at Marquette and at Creighton or home to Nova. Like Purdue the Hoyas have advantages where they can sustain a bulky loss total.
21. (36) ALABAMA 14-11: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 4-4, road: 3-6, 2 neutral wins, SOS 5
Crimson Tide arrive on the scene as the last team in the field. Losers of 4 of 5 heading into the LSU game, things were spinning out of control. However that win gave them a much needed 2nd Q1 win adding to the quality win over Auburn. Not to mention to win vs Richmond is looking better plus there is that sneaky good win over Stephen F Austin. Now whether Bama can show any consistency against a remaining scheduling of middling SEC schools is another question. Unfortunately for them just games at Mississippi State and home to South Carolina are versus schools with a pulse but neither of them figure to move the needle. That means Alabama just needs to win as many games as possible or even win out the regular season. Its likely their fate will be determined by probably having to pick up two quality wins in the SEC tourney. Plausible albeit a long journey ahead.
OUT
22(41) UTAH STATE 19-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 2-2, road: 4-5, 4 neutral wins, SOS 194
Aggies have vacillated just in and just out of the field for the past 10 days and I do not expect that to change much right through conference tourney week. Never good when the movement around the bubble is determined by how other schools not named Utah State are performing as they have quality win opportunities to pass the Aggies. Its going to be all about them winning out and then probably getting to the MVC semis at least. Certainly doable but season finale is a snake pit literally in New Mexico. Tough to know if they can sustain a loss there. Two real nice neutral site wins highlight their resume in LSU and Florida. Came up empty in their two games vs the Aztecs. Tough losses to fellow bubbles BYU and St Mary's. There is a bad loss at Air Force that they must be ruing.
23. (45) RICHMOND 19-6: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 2-1, road: 7-2, SOS 84
Certainly not the meatiest of profiles but now at 19-6 and the overall NET moving up they at least deserve a place in the discussion after blowing out VCU. Their claim to fame this year is a road win at Rhode Island and also a neutral site win over Wisconsin. Its a start for them but at this point they really just need to win out and probably add a quality win the A10 tourney. The last 6 shows landmines at St Bonnies and Duquense so we shall see. 15 of their 19 wins outside of Q1 and 2 screams NIT right now as does that Q3 loss to Radford. Note they lost to bubble Alabama.
24. (37) STANFORD 16-9: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 2-3, road: 2-4, 2 neutral wins, SOS 91
Losers of 7 of their last 8, the Cardinal have emphatically played their way out of the tourney going from a projected 7 seed to first 4 out in just two weeks. It was a tough stretch with 4 of the losses coming to NCAA tourney projected schools and the lone win was surprisingly Oregon but that win and a win over Oklahoma does not make a NCAA resume when the losses are just starting to bring all the metrics down. Just 4-8 in Q1&2 games and that is a bad number for a Power 6 school. The SOS non conference is 205 and there is a Q3 loss to California. The road ahead looks brutal too. A trip to the Washington schools could end their hopes before they even get to their Quad 1 home opportunity vs Colorado and the one on the road at Oregon. Its likely they need at least one of those while running the table in their other games. Based on their recent results, it would take a highly unlikely turn around and I am not waiting around for it to happen.
25. (42) EAST TENNESSEE STATE 20-4: Q2: 2-2, Q2: 2-1, road: 9-3, SOS 156
Buccaneers clash with Furman this week in what should determine the Southern Conference regular season title. Furman beat ETSU earlier in the season and completing a season sweep while giving the Bucs have 5th loss might be fatal to their at large hopes. A 6th loss in the conference tourney might be one too many. I know the NCAA has been kind to one mid major but not sure a win over LSU while losing to Mercer a Quad 4 deserves a NCAA at large bid. There are two wins over UNCGreensboro one counting as a Q1 win but lets be realistic when giving credit for that. 16 of their 20 wins are to Quad 3 and 4 schools. Its an ungodly number. Their only shot is to win out which includes winning the regular season title and at least making the semis of the Southern tourney. If they do not win the regular season I just cannot envision a scenerio where they get selected
26. (59) PROVIDENCE 14-12: Q1: 5-8, Q2: 2-0, road: 3-6, 3 Q3 losses, 1 Q4 loss, SOS 15
Every year there is one zombie school that you count out several times and no matter how many times you put them in the grave they come back for more. Friars win at Seton Hall was as monumental as it was unexpected. PC now has 5 quad 1 wins, scratch away the DePaul and the other 4 are big time...Creighton, at Butler, at Seton Hall, at Marquette...are you kidding me? Throw in a Georgetown win in Q2 and a sharp SOS of 15 and you ask what's the problem. Well it's twofold. One the overall mark at 14-12 like Purdue puts them in very sketchy territory with little margin of error. However that isn't even the worst of it. The Friars not only have 3 Q3 losses to Charleston, Penn and Northwestern but actually have a Quad 4 loss to 291 Long Beach State. Its an enormous amount of bad losses to overcome and I do not think I have ever seen a profile overcome them no matter how many quality wins. PC has 4 quad 1 games left on their schedule. Nothing short of winning 3 of them keeps them in the game. The NCAA tournament is not a charity. Its body of work. The Friars may be playing as well as anyone in the Big East right now but that does not negate the trash they brought to the table in the non conference slate.
27. (64) SOUTH CAROLINA 16-9: Q1: 3-5, Q2: 4-2, 1 Q4 loss, road: 6-3 SOS 75
Gamecocks have slowly poked their way onto the bubble with 6 wins in their last 7 games. Too bad for them that none of the 6 were to teams projected in the field so while wins vs Tennessee and Arkansas were nice, not so sure they are really anywhere closer than they were a week ago. No one can take that win over Kentucky away from them, ditto the win over bubble Virginia and that is why SC at least is in the game. Two bad losses though are holding back the overall NET and they are a Q3 loss to Boston U and a Q4 loss to Stetson. The Cocks have only 3 Q1 shots left and might have to win them all...at Mississippi State, at Alabama and home to LSU. Short of that, it is going to take a real deep SEC tourney run for them to have a legit chance of getting in.
28. (61) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 16-9: Q1: 3-2, Q2: 4-4, road: 5-5, 3 Q3 losses, SOS 90
Wolfpack suffered a crushing loss to Q3 Boston College on Sunday and that puts them in no go territory with 3 Quadrants losses joining North Carolina and Ga Tech. 3 Q1 wins but sorry Cuse and Greensboro are Q1 in name only. Their only quality wins are at Virginia and Wisconsin. Their only hope lies this week with Duke and FSU coming to visit. Win both and they are safely in. Win one and there is work to do while they are at least in the game. Lose both and put the nail in their coffin. They will not win at Duke later in the year and I do not see how they can cobble up enough quality wins elsewhere in the garbage dump known as the ACC and in the ACC tourney
29. (52) VCU 17-8: Q1: 1-5, Q2: 2-2, 1 Q4 loss, road: 4-4, SOS 68
VCU has lost 3 of 4 and are down to their last hope as Dayton visits tonight. A win would jump start a sagging profile which shows just a win over LSU to its credit. There is a Q2 over Richmond that isnt bad but let us note..just 3 wins in Q1 and 2. A whopping 14 wins of 17 to Q3 and Q4. Plus there is a Q4 loss to George Mason. Short of doing what no other A10 school has done this year, cannot see anyone they get in even by winning their other 5 games which includes 3 tough road trips. Will really have to earn their way in at this point and I just do not think they are capable.
30. (80) CLEMSON 13-12: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 5-4, 2 Q3 losses, road: 2-6, SOS 37
Suppose we can include the Tigers here after their upset over Louisville. You know they also beat Duke this year. Pretty hard to imagine a team with those wins so far removed from the last in line. Well a 13-12 record will do that to you plus there next best win is just NC State. The Tigers would need a thread the needle kind of run to make the tourney. Not impossible but they will have to navigate 3 road games and probably win a home game vs FSU. Not sure anything less than 4 out of 5 to finish will do it. Note they have 2 Q3 losses to Va Tech and Miami. Good luck!
31. (48) ARKANSAS 16-9: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 2-4, road: 4-5, SOS 18
Razorbacks are another school that seemingly went from the 7 line to way out of the field. 12 of their 16 wins are to Q3 and Q4 so that is a major issue to overcome. Wins over barely in Alabama and Indiana do not make a resume. Hogs have lost 4 in a row and it is becoming apparent they are in a freefall incapable of making a run. Only 2 Quad 1 opportunities remain at Florida and home to LSU and they are MUST wins. Arky probably cannot avoid more than one loss the rest of the way in the last 6, I just do not see that happening with the team already down to 4-8 in the middling SEC
32. (44) MINNESOTA 12-12: Q1: 4-10, Q2: 2-2, road: 1-8, SOS 21
The meltdown in the final minutes vs Iowa was deadly for the Gophers' resume. It cost them a potential Quad 1 win while also preventing them from being 13-11 and two games above 500. They would have been on the last in line so you can see how losing cost them about 10 spots on the bubble. It is hard to make a case for a bid when you only have 12 wins. There are some really good wins here. A sweep of Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin. You see playing 14 Q1 games that is reflected in that SOS of 21. There are no bad losses, there just are too many losses. The good news is their last 6 is relatively manageable for the Big 10. IND/Md/Nebby at home and at NW/WISC/IND. Can they find 4 wins in that 6 to at least position themselves heading into the Big 10 tournament. They will have to because anything short of that and they will have to win the conference tourney with 5 games in 5 days.
33. (53) MISSISSIPPI STATE 16-9: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 3-1, 2 Q3 losses, road: 3-5 road, 2 neutral wins, SOS 47
Tigers running on fumes edged Arkansas to stay alive but will simply need to run the table from here out. The trouble is only one Quad 1 game of the 6 and that is harsh reality for a school whose flimsy resume is highlighted by a win over Florida and a sweep of Arkansas. Losses to La Tech and New Mexico State loom large.
34. (60) MEMPHIS 16-8/ (67) SMU 18-6/ (82) TULSA 17-8
Three also rans from the AAC who do not have the quality wins nor SOS to seriously consider at this point. Check back in a couple of weeks to see if any of them broke out of the pack and made a run.
LAST 4 IN: ALABAMA, GEORGETOWN, PURDUE, WICHITA STATE
LAST 4 OUT: UTAH STATE, RICHMOND, STANFORD, EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Let's start this by identifying the one bid conferences and the school that are projected to receive an automatic bid. There are 22 conferences projected as one bid leagues
VERMONT AmerEast
NORTH FLORIDA Atl Sun
MONTANA Big Sky
WINTHROP Big South
UC IRVINE Big West
HOFSTRA CAA
NORTH TEXAS CUSA
WRIGHT ST Horizon
YALE Ivy
ST PETER'S MAAC
BOWLING GREEN MAC
NC CENTRAL MEAC
NO IOWA MVC
ROBERT MORRIS Northeast
AUSTIN PEAY OVC
COLGATE Patriot
FURMAN Southern
SFA Southland
PRAIRIE VIEW SWAC
SO DAKOTA ST Summit
LITTLE ROCK Sun Belt
N MEXICO ST WAC
Here are who I think are locks and their projected seedings as of today. There are 10 multi bid conferences.There are 36 at large bids and I have locked in 15 at large bids leaving 21 bids still available. I made the locks all the way down to the 6 line.
1: BAYLOR (BIG 12), KANSAS, SAN DIEGO STATE (MWC), GONZAGA (WCC)
2: MARYLAND (BIG 10), DUKE (ACC), DAYTON (A10), FLORIDA STATE
3: LOUISVILLE, SETON HALL (BIG EAST), VILLANOVA, PENN STATE
4: CREIGHTON, WEST VIRGINIA, AUBURN, ARIZONA
5: OREGON (PAC 12), BUTLER, COLORADO, KENTUCKY (SEC)
6: MICHIGAN STATE, OHIO STATE, MARQUETTE, IOWA
HERE IS THE PECKING ORDER
7 SEEDS
1. (26) MICHIGAN 16-9: Q1: 5-8, Q2: 4-1, road: 2-5, 4 neutral wins, SOS 61
Wolverines look set here. After a wobbly January which saw them lose 5 of 6 at one point, UM has regained some of the early season form that led to that notable win over Gonzaga, the only school to beat the Zags this year. League highlights include Michigan State, Iowa, Rutgers, Purdue and Indiana and do not forget another strong OOC win over Creighton. 4 of the next 6 are the on road in pretty hostile environments..RU/Purd/OSU/MD. Probably would need only one win at home to get in but getting one road win would keep Michigan away from any issues before heading into what should be a wild Big 10 tounament
2. (31) WISCONSIN 15-10: Q1: 7-8, Q2: 1-1, road: 4-6, SOS 16
No team on this list has more Quad 1 wins than the Badgers have and the no school comes close to playing 15 total Quad 1 games like the Badgers have. This is a battle tested and NCAA ready team. The wins here are impressive: Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State, at Penn State, Marquette, Indiana. Long forgotten was their slow start which included a Q3 loss to New Mexico and what now is a Q1 loss to Richmond. Get 4 of last 6 at home is a relative softer gauntlet than most in the Big 10. Because the overall loss total is bulky at 10, they probably still need to win 2 stay a few games over 500 and lock themselves in
3. (21) TEXAS TECH 16-9: Q; 2-8, Q2: 5-1, road: 2-5, 2 neutral wins, SOS 66
Red Raiders a bit light on Quad 1 wins right now but the two they have are legit in WVU and a neutral site win over Louisville. Those are the kind of wins of you want on a profile that is rather middling if you look at the SOS and road mark. Their only other quality win is Oklahoma so that is just 3 wins vs tournament projected schools which is a pretty low number. Their loss over the weekend at Oklahoma State counts as Q1 really in name only. Navigating the last 6 will be a bit tricky since they include games at Baylor and Oklahoma and home to Kansas. Would like to see them win one of those and without slipping up in the other 3 games against lesser.
4. (29) LSU 18-7: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 8-1, road:4-4, SOS 17
Tigers have sputtered the last two weeks losing 3 of their last 4 and the profile is starting to sag a bit. Just 2 quad 1 wins...one vs bubble Rhode Island, the other at Tennessee who is not a tourney team. The good news is they 8 quad 2 wins, scattered in their are wins over tourney bound Liberty and Florida and last team in Alabama. But it is also interesting to note the bubbles schools they have lost to....USC, Utah State, VCU, Alabama. East Tennessee State. Its likely LSU is going to need to pick up some quality wins in the SEC where all wins are not quality. A potentially perilous 3 game stretch awaits for them vs Kentucky and road games at So Carolina and Florida. Tigers need to find more than one win or they are going to find themselve sliding toward the last 8 in line.
8 SEEDS
5. (23) BYU 20-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 3-3, road: 5-5, 4 neutral wins, SOS 46
Cougars avoided a disasterous loss in the closing seconds at 8-19 San Diego. That loss could have put them squarely on the bubble. Such is life in the WCC where everyone but Gonzaga and St Mary's is a potential booby trap. The Cougars may be light on Q1 and Q2 wins but they have that clean high mid major profile we see every year. Strong OOC of 9, strong road/neutral profile with 9 wins and most importantly no bad losses. Yes 15 of their 20 wins are to Q3 and Q4. The important wins here are Houston, St Mary's and Utah State. How about those losses...Gonzaga, San Diego State and Kansas so you know why their overall NET and OOC SOS is so good. There will be one more crack at Gonzaga. No doubt a win there locks them, obviously a loss will not hurt them but BYU probably wants to take care of Santa Clara/at Pepperdine and that should be enough for them.
6. (38) ILLINOIS 15-9: Q1: 5-7, Q2: 2-2, road: 4-5, SOS 55
The Illini head to Penn State in desperate need of snapping their 4 game losing skid. Gone are the hopes of winning a Big 10 title, the Illini are just looking to stop the bleeding to make sure they do not start to fall near the last 8 in line. There is a lot good here. Three road conference wins vs tourney teams consisting of Wisconsin and a sweep of Purdue and Michigan. Do not forget the win over Rutgers. The injury to Dosunmu is enormous for them going forward so they will need to get him back in the lineup. Note the selection committee will factoring in injuries when evaluating teams but this losing streak started before he was hurt. There is some light though, after PSU, games vs Northwestern, Nebraska, Indiana offer the opportunity to get back on track. Those 3 wins would probably be enough regardless of what the Illini do at Ohio State and home to Iowa.
7. (30) RUTGERS 17-8: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 5-1, road: 1-6, SOS 57
Scarlet Knights remained perfect at the RAC moving to 17-0 on the season notching another quality victory with the win over Illinois. Rutgers has some really nice wins at the RAC. The Penn State win is looking really sexy now. The Seton Hall win is the coveted quality non conference win. Wins at home vs tourney teams Illinois, Indiana, Purdue and SF Austin gives RU a solid 6 wins vs projected tourney teams. However the Knights are down to just 2 Quad 1 wins as the profiles of schools like Purdue, Indiana, Illinois and Minnesota are starting to fade...and the latter is no longer a projected NCAA school. Its a nice profile but the big issue and it will be talked about until it happens is the hideous road mark of 1-6 and adding in the neutral losses to Pitt and St Bonnies is an awful 1-8. It most certainly is a criteria the NCAA looks at. Yet one win from RU vs any of the 3 remaining road games would end the concern. Any win would be a Quad 1 and along with a win at home vs Michigan or Maryland which also would be Q1 wins would likely propel RU into the tournament for the first time since 1991. If the Knights fail to get a road and maybe split at home to finish 18-12 well that is the situation where RU slides down the list and the road mark will be looked at. Never want to let the committee use an evaluation tool to justify leaving a team out. That being said the Scarlet Knights have proven themselves capable of competing in a road environment albeit without winning. These are single digit road losses they are suffering all to tournament teams. Do not forget Rutgers can legitimately make a run in the Big 10 tourney as well. There are many scenarios where Rutgers can punch their dance ticket. Just know right now they sit in a pretty good spot currently based on body of work.
8. (34) ST MARY'S 20-6: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 3-1, 2 Q3 losses, road: 5-2, 4 neutral wins, SOS 71
The Gaels, like BYU, have a mission to navigate those WCC landmines before the end of the season. Two games at home vs bottom feeder Loyola and San Diego await before the closing critical duo at Santa Clara and Gonzaga. STMU was wacked by the Zags a week ago so it's hard to imagine them winning at their place. The question becomes is that Santa Clara game a must win. I would say so, if they want to lock in before the WCC tourney. There are good wins here...they split with BYU and have very impressive non conference wins over Wisconsin and a 30 point drubbing of Arizona State plus a win over bubble Utah State. However 2 Q3 losses...one at home to Santa Clara and another to Winthrop. Not sure that getting swept by Santa Clara is going to be looked at as anything other than a huge negative when the committee is evaluating the Gaels. Need to keep winning.
9 SEEDS
9. (27) HOUSTON 20-6: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 7-2, road: 6-4, 3 neutral wins, SOS 87
Cougars overtime loss to SMU knocked them out of first in the AAC giving Cincinnati the projected autobid and sending the Cougars to the at large pool. Its a nice sheer win total and overall NET doing quite well at 27 yet a further look deeper into their profile shows its mainly riding on a sweep of Wichita State who I am projecting as a last 4 in school. Besides that there is a win over bubble South Carolina and a win over SMU but these are not tourney teams. There are only two Q1 opportunities left for them in the AAC slate and one of them Memphis is not a tourney team either. So its likely that Cincinnati game becomes a must win not only for the AAC regular season title but also for the Cougars at large chances. Still there are no bad losses here and there is something to be said for winning 7 Quad 2 games. Do not see the AAC getting more than 3 and Houston's profile is still the best of any school in the league but they simply need to keep winning.
10. (35) FLORIDA 16-9: Q1:3-6, Q2: 3-3, road: 3-5, 4 neutral wins, SOS 41
Gators taking care of business vs the dregs of the SEC which is always needed this time of year. Resume is a work in process with a nice base but needing some added beef. That could be provided by their upcoming gauntlet with 4 Q1 opportunities in their last 6 including 2 vs Kentucky and a home tilt with LSU. Gators will make or break their case over the last 6 and probably a split of these game should be enough to lock them in. Their big win of course was their 22 point drubbing of league leading Auburn. The biggest OOC win was Xavier and that win is starting to look better by the day. Wins vs very bubblicious Alabama, Providence and So Carolina but also losses to equally bubblicious Utah State and Mississippi State
11. (47) OKLAHOMA 15-9: Q1: 2-8, Q2: 7-1, road: 2-7, 3 neutral wins, SOS 39
Sooners have that big win over West Virginia and the 7 wins in Q2 is solid but hold everything. OU has just one win over a projected tourney team, two if you add in North Texas. That is a huge red flag and no matter how good the WVU win was, it will not cut it until more Q1 wins are added. Wins vs Minnesota, Missouri, Oregon State are not going to cut it. Not all Q1 and 2 losses are created equally and losses to bottom feeders Iowa State and Kansas State are not a positive no matter what quadrant they fall in. The last 6 could be bust or boon for their profile. First up is a home game with #1 Baylor and the significance o a win there does not have to be explained. Texas Tech at home will offer the best chance of a win but some tough road games at WVU, Oklahoma State and TCU have the potential to really put the Sooners in danger zone. Think they will need to win 4 of these 6 to remain on the good side of the bubble and it will certainly not be easy.
12. (50) ARIZONA STATE 17-8: Q1: 4-6, Q2: 3-2, road: 6-3, SOS 26
The surging Sun Devils have won 5 in a row and 7 of 8 while notching a needed Q1 win..Arizona and another Q2 in USC. That Stanford win is Q1 but the Cardinal have played their way out of the tourney so that win is losing some luster. Unfortunately ASU did not do much at all OOC getting waxed by 40 to St Mary's and losing to bubble Virginia. Their best OOC is just St John's. That is why they will need to notch at least one more big conference win. Only 2 Q1 opportunities left, home to Oregon which is up next and later at USC. Fail to get at least one and it looks like they will need to hold serve in their other 4 games. Its an okay profile but work to do.
10 SEEDS
13. (55) VIRGINIA 17-7: Q1: 3-3, Q2: 4-3, road: 4-4, 2 neutral wins, SOS 69
Cavs survived 2 nailbiters to continue to stay on the right side of the bubble. Without many quality wins or potential quality wins in the mediocrity called the ACC, UVA simply had to keep avoiding bad losses. Two Q1 games remain later in the year both at home vs Louisville and Duke. A win in either probably emphatically stamps their dance ticket. The resume is riding mainly on that win over Florida State but that neutral site win over ASU looking better. Still if you add in Vermont, the Cavs only have 3 wins over tourney teams. Plus there are losses to bubbles So Carolina and NC State and a Q3 loss to BC. Road games at Pitt/VT.Mia offer potential booby traps games to disrupt their profile. Going to be interesting to see how this one plays out.
NORTHERN IOWA (MVC)
14. (39) XAVIER 17-9: Q1: 2-8, Q2: 6-1, road: 3-5, 2 neutral wins, SOS 19
Xavier survived at SJU to put themselves in position in the final 3 weeks. Just 2 wins in 10 tries vs Q1 but yet only the win over SHU matters and its certainly a big one. 6 Q2 wins very solid but again only one vs a projected tourney team in Cincy. Sure there are wins vs Gtown and Providence that are okay but this profile needs more down the stretch. Opportunity awaits as Nova pays a visit. A win there and that solves alot of problems but if not there is a deadly stretch of 3 to finish at Gtown, at Providence and home to Butler. I know the SOS is strong but you wonder how many more losses the Muskateers can absorb. Probably need to split these 4 and it will not be an easy task.
15. (49) USC 19-7: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 6-0, road: 5-4, 3 neutral wins, SOS 65
Trojans halted a 3 game losing streak with a sweep of the Washington schools but actually find themselves moving down the pecking order. That will happen when you only had 2 Quadrant 1 victories and only 1 is tourney team. Yes they are 8-6 in the first 2 quads but now with Stanford projected out of the field, LSU who is sagging themselves is the only tourney team that USC has defeated. Their best OOC win was Nevada. Opportunity or heartache awaits with a deadly two game road trip to Utah and Colorado followed by home games vs the Arizona schools. USC will need two of these for sure but maybe even both Arizona schools. In some limited viewing of them this year, they did not seem to pass the eye test so they have alot to prove.
11 SEEDS
CINCINNATI (AAC)
16. (63) INDIANA 16-9: Q1: 4-7, Q2: 2-2, road: 1-6, 2 neutral wins, SOS 48
Hoosiers are in some trouble after being walloped by Michigan losing for the 5th time in 6 tries. The overall NET continues to be the worst among projected schools in at 63 and that is never a place you want to be. The road mark of 1-6 which shows just a win at Nebraska is another red flag. Plus the schedule looks brutal down the stretch with road trips to bubbles Purdue and Minnesota plus Illinois and home games vs PSU, Minny and Wisconsin. At worst they need to win all those homes but probably need to add a road win as well. Its a tough challenge for a team that just looks disorganized in general, capable of a good performance here but does not really pass the eye test. Obviously no one can take away the quality wins over Michigan State, Ohio State, and Iowa plus a big feather in their cap win over Florida State. That is why they are still in as of now. Its more than enough base but there seems to be more than enough trending downward to really have them panicking at this point.
17. (32) RHODE ISLAND 19-6: Q1: 1-4, Q2: 5-1, road: 6-4, SOS 44
Rams really have a very meh resume. Riding a great overall NET and that 19-6 mark and their wins are more okay than anything impressive. The sweep over VCU really has lost its luster since VCU has played their way out of the tourney. Just a neutral site win over LSU and a win over last in Alabama. There is a win over North Texas and Providence. Rams lost to bubble Richmond and a potentially costly loss at Brown.The strong OOC schedule at 29 which featured losses to Maryland and WVU plus the overall at 44 helped by Dayton's season going to be their ace in the hole for the committee. A home game vs Dayton looms so that is major opportunity to lock in but their main job is to avoid pitfalls on the road vs very weak sauce A10 programs.
PLAY IN 11 SEEDS
18. (46) WICHITA STATE 19-6: Q1: 2-3, Q2: 6-3, road: 4-3, SOS 80
Shockers still holding on but seem to be creeping each day to the last in line. That is going to happen when you have to just 2 Q1 wins and neither is to a tourney team. Wins over UConn and OK State will not move the needle. The Q2 win over Oklahoma is truly their best but what after that. Wins over wrong side of the bubble VCU, Memphis,and South Caroina. WSU was swept by Houston in league play and lost to Cincy/Tulsa. No real bad losses per se but its hard to argue that this is a team that deserves to be an at large. Schedule features 3 key road games but none more important than at Cincy. May be a must win there with trips to Memphis and SMU to come. I cannot see how they can hold on in the field if they lose 2 more times. Likely to need a strong AAC tourney performance
19. (33) PURDUE 14-12: Q1: 3-9, Q2: 4-1, 2 Q3 losses, road: 3-7, SOS 63
Boilermakers slide down into the first four slate of games simply because that 14-12 record is looking dangerous. No team since Georgia (16-14) back in I believe 2001 has made it to the NCAA being less than 4 games above 500. Purdue is going to test history. Obviously there is a lot to like here. Huge wins over Iowa and Michigan State. Wins over Indiana, Wisconsin, OOC over Virginia, wins over wrong side of the bubble VCU and Minny. They have enough wins to justify a selection, its just alot of losses at this point. Thats when the committee might consider those 2 Quad 3 losses to Nebraska and Texas. Their task is simple, keep winning more than you lose and that is a tough thing to do in the Big 10 where almost every night you are playing a tourney team. Their easiest path may be to just win the home games of Indiana/Mich/RU and they could sustain the losses on the road to Wisconsin and Iowa. It would put the Boilers at 17-14 and probably annexing a B10 tourney win would given them enough cushion given their quality wins to dance. But need to stress the margin of error is slim at this point, head into the B10 tourney at 16-15 and its a very treacherous spot to be in.
PLAY IN 12 SEEDS
20. (43) GEORGETOWN 15-10: Q1: 5-9, Q2: 4-1, road: 4-4, SOS 4
Hoyas rose from the nether regions of the bubble taking advantage of its soft underbelly with a crucial road win at Butler. The Hoyas may have 5 Quad 1 victories and 9 total from Q1 and 2 but before Butler only one of them was to a tourney team and that was Creighton. Wins over the likes of St Johns, Ok State and SMU on the road are not the type to land you into the tourney. A road win at Butler puts the Hoyas in play and that SOS of 4 is going to be cherished by the selection committee. Just 6 of their 25 games played outside of Quadrants 1 and 2. Still there is work to do to maintain their position inside the field. Their remaining 6 is deadly. Gtown needs to grab those easier opportunites which means home wins over bubble Providence and Xavier and at De Paul if not it means stealing one at Marquette and at Creighton or home to Nova. Like Purdue the Hoyas have advantages where they can sustain a bulky loss total.
21. (36) ALABAMA 14-11: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 4-4, road: 3-6, 2 neutral wins, SOS 5
Crimson Tide arrive on the scene as the last team in the field. Losers of 4 of 5 heading into the LSU game, things were spinning out of control. However that win gave them a much needed 2nd Q1 win adding to the quality win over Auburn. Not to mention to win vs Richmond is looking better plus there is that sneaky good win over Stephen F Austin. Now whether Bama can show any consistency against a remaining scheduling of middling SEC schools is another question. Unfortunately for them just games at Mississippi State and home to South Carolina are versus schools with a pulse but neither of them figure to move the needle. That means Alabama just needs to win as many games as possible or even win out the regular season. Its likely their fate will be determined by probably having to pick up two quality wins in the SEC tourney. Plausible albeit a long journey ahead.
OUT
22(41) UTAH STATE 19-7: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 2-2, road: 4-5, 4 neutral wins, SOS 194
Aggies have vacillated just in and just out of the field for the past 10 days and I do not expect that to change much right through conference tourney week. Never good when the movement around the bubble is determined by how other schools not named Utah State are performing as they have quality win opportunities to pass the Aggies. Its going to be all about them winning out and then probably getting to the MVC semis at least. Certainly doable but season finale is a snake pit literally in New Mexico. Tough to know if they can sustain a loss there. Two real nice neutral site wins highlight their resume in LSU and Florida. Came up empty in their two games vs the Aztecs. Tough losses to fellow bubbles BYU and St Mary's. There is a bad loss at Air Force that they must be ruing.
23. (45) RICHMOND 19-6: Q1: 2-4, Q2: 2-1, road: 7-2, SOS 84
Certainly not the meatiest of profiles but now at 19-6 and the overall NET moving up they at least deserve a place in the discussion after blowing out VCU. Their claim to fame this year is a road win at Rhode Island and also a neutral site win over Wisconsin. Its a start for them but at this point they really just need to win out and probably add a quality win the A10 tourney. The last 6 shows landmines at St Bonnies and Duquense so we shall see. 15 of their 19 wins outside of Q1 and 2 screams NIT right now as does that Q3 loss to Radford. Note they lost to bubble Alabama.
24. (37) STANFORD 16-9: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 2-3, road: 2-4, 2 neutral wins, SOS 91
Losers of 7 of their last 8, the Cardinal have emphatically played their way out of the tourney going from a projected 7 seed to first 4 out in just two weeks. It was a tough stretch with 4 of the losses coming to NCAA tourney projected schools and the lone win was surprisingly Oregon but that win and a win over Oklahoma does not make a NCAA resume when the losses are just starting to bring all the metrics down. Just 4-8 in Q1&2 games and that is a bad number for a Power 6 school. The SOS non conference is 205 and there is a Q3 loss to California. The road ahead looks brutal too. A trip to the Washington schools could end their hopes before they even get to their Quad 1 home opportunity vs Colorado and the one on the road at Oregon. Its likely they need at least one of those while running the table in their other games. Based on their recent results, it would take a highly unlikely turn around and I am not waiting around for it to happen.
25. (42) EAST TENNESSEE STATE 20-4: Q2: 2-2, Q2: 2-1, road: 9-3, SOS 156
Buccaneers clash with Furman this week in what should determine the Southern Conference regular season title. Furman beat ETSU earlier in the season and completing a season sweep while giving the Bucs have 5th loss might be fatal to their at large hopes. A 6th loss in the conference tourney might be one too many. I know the NCAA has been kind to one mid major but not sure a win over LSU while losing to Mercer a Quad 4 deserves a NCAA at large bid. There are two wins over UNCGreensboro one counting as a Q1 win but lets be realistic when giving credit for that. 16 of their 20 wins are to Quad 3 and 4 schools. Its an ungodly number. Their only shot is to win out which includes winning the regular season title and at least making the semis of the Southern tourney. If they do not win the regular season I just cannot envision a scenerio where they get selected
26. (59) PROVIDENCE 14-12: Q1: 5-8, Q2: 2-0, road: 3-6, 3 Q3 losses, 1 Q4 loss, SOS 15
Every year there is one zombie school that you count out several times and no matter how many times you put them in the grave they come back for more. Friars win at Seton Hall was as monumental as it was unexpected. PC now has 5 quad 1 wins, scratch away the DePaul and the other 4 are big time...Creighton, at Butler, at Seton Hall, at Marquette...are you kidding me? Throw in a Georgetown win in Q2 and a sharp SOS of 15 and you ask what's the problem. Well it's twofold. One the overall mark at 14-12 like Purdue puts them in very sketchy territory with little margin of error. However that isn't even the worst of it. The Friars not only have 3 Q3 losses to Charleston, Penn and Northwestern but actually have a Quad 4 loss to 291 Long Beach State. Its an enormous amount of bad losses to overcome and I do not think I have ever seen a profile overcome them no matter how many quality wins. PC has 4 quad 1 games left on their schedule. Nothing short of winning 3 of them keeps them in the game. The NCAA tournament is not a charity. Its body of work. The Friars may be playing as well as anyone in the Big East right now but that does not negate the trash they brought to the table in the non conference slate.
27. (64) SOUTH CAROLINA 16-9: Q1: 3-5, Q2: 4-2, 1 Q4 loss, road: 6-3 SOS 75
Gamecocks have slowly poked their way onto the bubble with 6 wins in their last 7 games. Too bad for them that none of the 6 were to teams projected in the field so while wins vs Tennessee and Arkansas were nice, not so sure they are really anywhere closer than they were a week ago. No one can take that win over Kentucky away from them, ditto the win over bubble Virginia and that is why SC at least is in the game. Two bad losses though are holding back the overall NET and they are a Q3 loss to Boston U and a Q4 loss to Stetson. The Cocks have only 3 Q1 shots left and might have to win them all...at Mississippi State, at Alabama and home to LSU. Short of that, it is going to take a real deep SEC tourney run for them to have a legit chance of getting in.
28. (61) NORTH CAROLINA STATE 16-9: Q1: 3-2, Q2: 4-4, road: 5-5, 3 Q3 losses, SOS 90
Wolfpack suffered a crushing loss to Q3 Boston College on Sunday and that puts them in no go territory with 3 Quadrants losses joining North Carolina and Ga Tech. 3 Q1 wins but sorry Cuse and Greensboro are Q1 in name only. Their only quality wins are at Virginia and Wisconsin. Their only hope lies this week with Duke and FSU coming to visit. Win both and they are safely in. Win one and there is work to do while they are at least in the game. Lose both and put the nail in their coffin. They will not win at Duke later in the year and I do not see how they can cobble up enough quality wins elsewhere in the garbage dump known as the ACC and in the ACC tourney
29. (52) VCU 17-8: Q1: 1-5, Q2: 2-2, 1 Q4 loss, road: 4-4, SOS 68
VCU has lost 3 of 4 and are down to their last hope as Dayton visits tonight. A win would jump start a sagging profile which shows just a win over LSU to its credit. There is a Q2 over Richmond that isnt bad but let us note..just 3 wins in Q1 and 2. A whopping 14 wins of 17 to Q3 and Q4. Plus there is a Q4 loss to George Mason. Short of doing what no other A10 school has done this year, cannot see anyone they get in even by winning their other 5 games which includes 3 tough road trips. Will really have to earn their way in at this point and I just do not think they are capable.
30. (80) CLEMSON 13-12: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 5-4, 2 Q3 losses, road: 2-6, SOS 37
Suppose we can include the Tigers here after their upset over Louisville. You know they also beat Duke this year. Pretty hard to imagine a team with those wins so far removed from the last in line. Well a 13-12 record will do that to you plus there next best win is just NC State. The Tigers would need a thread the needle kind of run to make the tourney. Not impossible but they will have to navigate 3 road games and probably win a home game vs FSU. Not sure anything less than 4 out of 5 to finish will do it. Note they have 2 Q3 losses to Va Tech and Miami. Good luck!
31. (48) ARKANSAS 16-9: Q1: 2-5, Q2: 2-4, road: 4-5, SOS 18
Razorbacks are another school that seemingly went from the 7 line to way out of the field. 12 of their 16 wins are to Q3 and Q4 so that is a major issue to overcome. Wins over barely in Alabama and Indiana do not make a resume. Hogs have lost 4 in a row and it is becoming apparent they are in a freefall incapable of making a run. Only 2 Quad 1 opportunities remain at Florida and home to LSU and they are MUST wins. Arky probably cannot avoid more than one loss the rest of the way in the last 6, I just do not see that happening with the team already down to 4-8 in the middling SEC
32. (44) MINNESOTA 12-12: Q1: 4-10, Q2: 2-2, road: 1-8, SOS 21
The meltdown in the final minutes vs Iowa was deadly for the Gophers' resume. It cost them a potential Quad 1 win while also preventing them from being 13-11 and two games above 500. They would have been on the last in line so you can see how losing cost them about 10 spots on the bubble. It is hard to make a case for a bid when you only have 12 wins. There are some really good wins here. A sweep of Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan and Wisconsin. You see playing 14 Q1 games that is reflected in that SOS of 21. There are no bad losses, there just are too many losses. The good news is their last 6 is relatively manageable for the Big 10. IND/Md/Nebby at home and at NW/WISC/IND. Can they find 4 wins in that 6 to at least position themselves heading into the Big 10 tournament. They will have to because anything short of that and they will have to win the conference tourney with 5 games in 5 days.
33. (53) MISSISSIPPI STATE 16-9: Q1: 2-6, Q2: 3-1, 2 Q3 losses, road: 3-5 road, 2 neutral wins, SOS 47
Tigers running on fumes edged Arkansas to stay alive but will simply need to run the table from here out. The trouble is only one Quad 1 game of the 6 and that is harsh reality for a school whose flimsy resume is highlighted by a win over Florida and a sweep of Arkansas. Losses to La Tech and New Mexico State loom large.
34. (60) MEMPHIS 16-8/ (67) SMU 18-6/ (82) TULSA 17-8
Three also rans from the AAC who do not have the quality wins nor SOS to seriously consider at this point. Check back in a couple of weeks to see if any of them broke out of the pack and made a run.
LAST 4 IN: ALABAMA, GEORGETOWN, PURDUE, WICHITA STATE
LAST 4 OUT: UTAH STATE, RICHMOND, STANFORD, EAST TENNESSEE STATE
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