Took a look at Big 10 standings this morning. Wow. 5 teams tied for 3rd. Lose tonight we drop to 7th.
BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS 2/18
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
You gonna fix the typo in the title?
Nevermind. I just got it. LOLOL
Nice job bac
Nevermind. I just got it. LOLOL
Nice job bac
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If you are eliminating SFA from at large discussion you have to take out Liberty....if you respond with anything that has the letters NET in it I am coming after Sweet Pee
The 1st place team in the MEAC has a 1-12 OOC record vs. D1 teams. Only 2 from a major conference school was Northwestern and Mississippi. Maybe 363 D1 teams is too much
its neutral site but for all intents and purposes would satisfy a requirement that RU could win away from home vs a quality opponent
they are not getting in either but there NET is like 30 times higher
and Sweet Pea bites
Liberty can't be an at-large. Even if they are close currently, any loss they would take in the conference tourney would be crushing.
Bac, I must say you certainly do a wonderful job on this every year. You should probably be on TV before some of the other bracket predictors. I know you sure save me a lot of work on research.
Good job as well - which raised another issue.
What are the values of wins and losses in conference tourneys?
See as regular season?
What are the values of wins and losses in conference tourneys?
See as regular season?
certainly a good conference tourney run can help you improve metrics and give you needed quality wins down the stretch but they are not valued any higher than an early season win...its body of work
they do tend to matter though simply because a school has an opportunity to bolster their resume
The thing I don't understand about this is that there are such elaborate write-ups on all these teams but then no write-up on a team like Cincinnati just because they are technically the auto-bid if the season ended now but there's probably like a 25-30 percent chance or so of Cincy actually getting the AAC autobid with a 70 percent chance or so of them needing at at-large so a full examination of the bubble certainly includes teams like Cincy, Northern Iowa, etc. who may technically be in first place now (or in the case of Cincy not anymore after Wed night) but are quite likely to lose in their conference tournament because of the competitiveness of the conference tournaments at neutral sites.
dude here is the deal....i dont do writeups on automatics. Cincy had their write up last week this week they are automatic, deal with it....ya know people like you who make comments like this can gtfo. I dont spend time doing this for a non Rutgers fan to come here and do a nit pick...no one asked you to come and read this
I dont get paid for this, if we want something professional then go to Lunardi and Palm..oooh oops you will not find capsule like this on them
Anyhow Cincy lost tonight which puts them back on the bubble..probably among the last 2 in or last 2 out..not sure until i look at it tomorrow
okay got some good things for RU and some bad....
first the good
Cincy losing to UCF is a bad Q3 loss for them and its their 4th Q3 loss...thats a big deal. So not only did they lose their spot as the auto winner of the AAC, they lost their spot in the field
Alabama inexplicably suffered a Q3 loss to Texas A&M. That is their 2nd Q2 loss and they are down to just 14-12 overall. They likley lost their spot in the field for now.
E Tennessee State beats Furman so they now become the projected auto bid winner of the Southern which means they for now do not appear on the bubble pecking order
Seton Hall beats Butler so that win continues to look good for RU
SF Austin moves to 20-3 so good for RU SOS
Now the bad.....
NC State big time unlikely upset at Duke, one game after losing at home to BC. This is the kind of win to put them right on the last in/last out line despite some warts. No sure thing, will need to keep avoiding bad losses
Providence lives to see another day with that big road win at Georgetown. Its a really jeckyl and hyde profile that still will be tough to every look pretty. Meanwhile thats a tough loss for Gtown, losing at home with tough games to come
Richmond takes care of business vs George Mason. Might jump in now given the losses to Cincy and Bama
Virginia beats BC. I think the Cavs are solidly in for now at least
Texas Tech beat Kansas State, Red Raiders solidfying themselves
Utah State took care of Wyoming and sit right on that last in/last out line
Houston routed Tulsa, they move back up as the AAC projected winner while also bolster their profile...may take RU's seed spot. Tulsa done bye
Memphis wins to keep their hopes flickering but SMU goes down Tulane and I would say thats a bad Q3 loss that ends their hopes
Mississippi State stays in the game as a longshot by beating South Carolina who themselves seem like a longshot now
Indiana got a much needed Q1 road win at Minnesota, looks like the Gophers are out barring a miracle run. Cannot even put a sub 500 school on the bubble. Sorry Ricky
Will give an update on the last 4 in/out. I think with the loss tonight, RU drops to a 9 seed, the best 9
first the good
Cincy losing to UCF is a bad Q3 loss for them and its their 4th Q3 loss...thats a big deal. So not only did they lose their spot as the auto winner of the AAC, they lost their spot in the field
Alabama inexplicably suffered a Q3 loss to Texas A&M. That is their 2nd Q2 loss and they are down to just 14-12 overall. They likley lost their spot in the field for now.
E Tennessee State beats Furman so they now become the projected auto bid winner of the Southern which means they for now do not appear on the bubble pecking order
Seton Hall beats Butler so that win continues to look good for RU
SF Austin moves to 20-3 so good for RU SOS
Now the bad.....
NC State big time unlikely upset at Duke, one game after losing at home to BC. This is the kind of win to put them right on the last in/last out line despite some warts. No sure thing, will need to keep avoiding bad losses
Providence lives to see another day with that big road win at Georgetown. Its a really jeckyl and hyde profile that still will be tough to every look pretty. Meanwhile thats a tough loss for Gtown, losing at home with tough games to come
Richmond takes care of business vs George Mason. Might jump in now given the losses to Cincy and Bama
Virginia beats BC. I think the Cavs are solidly in for now at least
Texas Tech beat Kansas State, Red Raiders solidfying themselves
Utah State took care of Wyoming and sit right on that last in/last out line
Houston routed Tulsa, they move back up as the AAC projected winner while also bolster their profile...may take RU's seed spot. Tulsa done bye
Memphis wins to keep their hopes flickering but SMU goes down Tulane and I would say thats a bad Q3 loss that ends their hopes
Mississippi State stays in the game as a longshot by beating South Carolina who themselves seem like a longshot now
Indiana got a much needed Q1 road win at Minnesota, looks like the Gophers are out barring a miracle run. Cannot even put a sub 500 school on the bubble. Sorry Ricky
Will give an update on the last 4 in/out. I think with the loss tonight, RU drops to a 9 seed, the best 9
NET dropped to 33.
Purdue 32
Illinois 34
Good news is UMass at 159 and Northwestern at now barely sneak up to Q3 wins than Q4. Seems minor but getting both to move up is a big deal. Really really need that. 12-9 vs q1-3 rather than 10-9. Can both hold?
3-7 vs Q1 but Purdue/Illinois right there conversely Wisky at 29
Purdue 32
Illinois 34
Good news is UMass at 159 and Northwestern at now barely sneak up to Q3 wins than Q4. Seems minor but getting both to move up is a big deal. Really really need that. 12-9 vs q1-3 rather than 10-9. Can both hold?
3-7 vs Q1 but Purdue/Illinois right there conversely Wisky at 29
Unmagic number for Minny is 2
Unmagic number for Purdue is 2
I am talking hit those numbers and they are eliminated from at large conversation for good. LOCKED in a BAD way
Unmagic number for Purdue is 2
I am talking hit those numbers and they are eliminated from at large conversation for good. LOCKED in a BAD way
The Michigan game was a must win in so many ways in rankings and taking off so much pressure on the team to win on the road.
yup 4 games plus another in the tourney where everyone except Nebby/Northwestern is a quad 1 game. Plenty of opportunities to score Q1 wins...sometimes the road to an invite is filled with twists and turns, we see it every year...backs against the wall, teams pull out wins. That is why we love the game so much
I think we still are above Indiana a few spots. Just eyeballing, I see us as a 9 and they as a 10 still. If they beat PSU they shoot up but if not...
at 12-13 I am no longer considering Minny in the bubble conversation, have to at least be 500 to be in the discussion
Texas in 2019 was the "test" for a team at 16-16 with big wins but alot of losses and sent packing to the NIT
LAST 4 BYES: WICHITA STATE, USC, OKLAHOMA, XAVIER
LAST 4 IN: GEORGETOWN, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, STANFORD, UTAH STATE
LAST 4 OUT: RICHMOND, PURDUE, ALABAMA, CINCINNATI
NEXT 4 OUT: PROVIDENCE, VCU, MISSISSIPPI STATE, CLEMSON
huge changes on the last 4 in and last 4 out line...shows you how insane this thing is.
LAST 4 IN: GEORGETOWN, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, STANFORD, UTAH STATE
LAST 4 OUT: RICHMOND, PURDUE, ALABAMA, CINCINNATI
NEXT 4 OUT: PROVIDENCE, VCU, MISSISSIPPI STATE, CLEMSON
huge changes on the last 4 in and last 4 out line...shows you how insane this thing is.
Big 10 seeds
2 Maryland
4 Penn State
6 Michigan State
6 Ohio State
6 Iowa
6 Michigan
7 Illinois
7 Wisconsin
9 Rutgers
9 Indiana
2 Maryland
4 Penn State
6 Michigan State
6 Ohio State
6 Iowa
6 Michigan
7 Illinois
7 Wisconsin
9 Rutgers
9 Indiana
for everyone handwringing and for everyone declaring RU need 3 wins which is preposterous on face, look at these teams, look up their team sheets and compare them to RU and this doesn't even include the last 4 in schools which are shaky themselves.
Certainly an argument can be made that RU needs more than 1 to get in, I can accept that, personally I think its 1 but fair to argue 2 is needed to make sure. I think any argument for 3 isnt looking at the rest of the bubble
RICHMOND
PURDUE
ALABAMA
CINCINNATI
PROVIDENCE
VCU
MISSISSIPPI STATE,
CLEMSON
Certainly an argument can be made that RU needs more than 1 to get in, I can accept that, personally I think its 1 but fair to argue 2 is needed to make sure. I think any argument for 3 isnt looking at the rest of the bubble
RICHMOND
PURDUE
ALABAMA
CINCINNATI
PROVIDENCE
VCU
MISSISSIPPI STATE,
CLEMSON
put the NET away...compare resumes..Indiana has to get the slight nod.
Unless you put stock in the fact that we don't get blown out AND Indiana
loses by 20 to WISC
loses by 15 to MD
loses by 15 to PSU
loses by 24 to MICH
Is Rutgers B1G record is 9-1-6?
two spots behind right now..both on the 9 line...
Rutgers best wins: Seton Hall, Penn State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue, SF Austin
Indiana best wins: Florida State, Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa, at Minnesota
close but RU is 33 in the NET to Indiana 59...huge gap..
Rutgers best wins: Seton Hall, Penn State, Wisconsin, Illinois, Purdue, SF Austin
Indiana best wins: Florida State, Michigan State, Ohio State, Iowa, at Minnesota
close but RU is 33 in the NET to Indiana 59...huge gap..
I don't see NCState Providence or Alabama in any way making the field. NC State just lost at Boston College 3 days ago, suddenly beating Duke warrants forgetting everything else??
I think it's still 6 for Big East and 10 B1G. If indiana beats Penn State at home and RU beats Maryland at home, RUs win would be bigger. Indiana beat Florida State, RU crushed SHU.
It comes down to remaining competitive and staying intact for these next few games.
I will point out a trend of leagues perhaps seeing top programs "mail-in" games against bubble teams in late Feb to early March....not saying that league commissioners are playing puppets, but each league has to maximize their leagues. If a strong seeded team can sacrifice a game and not have it impact their status, I'm certain it is considered by someone, somewhere.
I think it's still 6 for Big East and 10 B1G. If indiana beats Penn State at home and RU beats Maryland at home, RUs win would be bigger. Indiana beat Florida State, RU crushed SHU.
It comes down to remaining competitive and staying intact for these next few games.
I will point out a trend of leagues perhaps seeing top programs "mail-in" games against bubble teams in late Feb to early March....not saying that league commissioners are playing puppets, but each league has to maximize their leagues. If a strong seeded team can sacrifice a game and not have it impact their status, I'm certain it is considered by someone, somewhere.
1. Stop it with the NET. I am coming after SP and will bring a taser so I am not bitten
2. Dont put SFA in a best wins column
3. lets look at OOC......sorry I have BART here
US and them in order
21 FSU 23 SHU
57 ArkaNSAS 108 pITT
65 nOTRE dAME 117 St Bonnie
69 Puke On 121 SFA
80 LA Tech 189 UMASS
120 SD State 211 Lafayette
165 Princeton 226 Drexel
167 Portland 249 Bryant
Big wins do count. In Bama's case they beat LSU and Kentucky, strong sos and also have a win over Richmond. That was a deadly lost last night and they will have to earn their way back in
NC State in for now because they one really good win in Duke plus quality wins over Virginia and Wisconsin. Work to do...Fla State next, win that and yeah they are dancing, lose and they are going to have just keep winning. They have 3 Q3 losses to overcome.
Providence is just insane...some really really good wins but how can you overlook a Q4 loss AND 3 Q3 losses....will really have to do well. Big East could get 7 but they will not get 8 and Gtown has a rough schedule ahead...still last in but that wasnt a loss they could have afforded last night
NC State in for now because they one really good win in Duke plus quality wins over Virginia and Wisconsin. Work to do...Fla State next, win that and yeah they are dancing, lose and they are going to have just keep winning. They have 3 Q3 losses to overcome.
Providence is just insane...some really really good wins but how can you overlook a Q4 loss AND 3 Q3 losses....will really have to do well. Big East could get 7 but they will not get 8 and Gtown has a rough schedule ahead...still last in but that wasnt a loss they could have afforded last night
why are you cherry picking games
Indiana non conference sos 91
RU non conference sos 67
this is by net
our best wins are all comparable at this point'
metrics favor RU
Unfortunately I think Big 10 only gets 8 teams and one of the above will be left out.
at 88, yes.....because another loss somewhere will likely shove them to 100....the selection committee sure aint giving a team with 100 net rank an at large
and for the record their rpi is 93
sos 332...hahhahahahaha
this is an absurd take....we have 10 clearly in right now...who are the two you are removing and tell me who is moving in over them
we already are basically locked in for 8 currently
