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BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS 2/18

But doesn't it put St.Louis officially on the bubble?
Like many years A10 and P10 most interesting going into conference tourney and usually some one steals a bid... Remember UCLA?
After Dayton, You have Rhode, Richmond, St. Louis, Duquesne, slumping VCU and even St. Bonnie could go on a roll.
PAC 12: If UCLA goes on a roll you have Oregon, AZ, ASU, Colorado, USC, and Stanford?
On the positive side not sure if any mid majors out there that lose conference tourney that would get/deserving of a bid.


St Louis has zero chance

the A10 stole a bid last year when St Bonnies won. Right now they are getting Dayton in, URI is likely at this point yet not a lock. Richmond is right on the bubble. Since Richmond really does not have an overwhelming profile, if there is a bid stealer in the tourney, this conference will not be getting 4. Richmond will be out.

Northern Iowa's loss the other night put them in a shaky position for an at large. Possible but not probable. E Tennessee State is the only other mid major with a shot but it will be hard to overcome the Quad 4 loss to Mercer
 
Lol! Every year NCAA throws somebody in that we didn’t expect. VCU, in more recent years, UCLA, last year, St. John’s. Never say never if they keep winning they may indeed be bubblicious and certainly in conversation. Providence sneaking back in. Bubble sometimes expands as well as contracts.
 
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Virginia survives at Pitt

Kansas tops Baylor

Auburn snuffs out any hope Tennessee could get back on the bubble

Providence takes down Marquette to win again..inching closer to in despite 4 bad losses.
 
Michigan looking amazing! See what I did there? RU losses looking much better.
 
Houston falls at Memphis, a win probably would have locked them in, they still are the projected autobid from AAC but if they fall to bubble, right now they have just two wins of Wichita State and thats it.

Memphis meanwhile has beaten Houston, NC State, and Cincy but have 3 Q3 losses and a lagging NET..almost have to win at least 3 of 4 to end the year...still a longshot but now in consideration

Arkansas beat Missouri to stay alive but will need alot of work

Xavier missed an opportunity for a quality win by losing at Nova so they remain on the good side of the bubble but far from safe
 
Michigan looking amazing! See what I did there? RU losses looking much better.
How were they looking much better?Both games were really home games for Rutgers in which they had more shots attempted and more rebounds and Michigan played without Livers.
 
UCLA upsets Colorado so now they move into the outer regions of the bubble.

NC State fails to get a quality win over FSU and remain on the last 2 in, last 2 out line

Mississippi State loses to Texas A&M and they are in real trouble.

Oklahoma loses at OK State..it counts as a Q1 loss but digging deeper its not one they could afford...1-10 vs Q1 and their only was WVU who is fading themselves to that win not looking as good...likely headed to first 4 games
 
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Down goes Gtown at De Paul. Its incredibly ridiculous that was a q1 loss vs a team 1-12 in the BE. Anyway this loss sends the Hoyas out and quite possibly puts the Friars in

ASU all but a lock after surviving Oregon State

Florida loses vs Kentucky...still solidly in but missed a chance to shore things up

Bama wins at Ole Miss. One of the few to win around the bubble

St Marys took care of business avoiding a bad loss

Richmond falls at St Bonnies so they remain out

Rhode Island loses at Davidson. Still in but certainly hurts

LSU over So Carolina probably all but eliminates the Cocks while LSU all but locked in

Tex Tech won at Iowa State..all but lockd in
 
BYU punches their dance ticket

3 of the 4 one seeds lose but all will temain one seeds....but it opens the door that Maryland if they really finish strong can steal a 1 if San Diego State loses another game
 
You know any chance they can, the committee will move Duke(10-3 Q1/2, 1 Q3 loss) to the 1 line, San Diego St(9-0 Q1/2, 1 Q3 loss) is making that easy for them now. Dayton(10-2 Q1/2) has a slim chance to get to the 1 line, they have to win @URI to have a chance for 1 seed. If Maryland(12-4 Q1/2) wins B1G tourney, they will get there. Arizona has zero chance. Kansas (18-3 Q1/2) and Baylor (15-2 Q1/2) are pretty locked in as 1 seeds. Gonzaga (9-2 Q1/2) is the only other 1 seed quality team.
 
You know any chance they can, the committee will move Duke(10-3 Q1/2, 1 Q3 loss) to the 1 line, San Diego St(9-0 Q1/2, 1 Q3 loss) is making that easy for them now. Dayton(10-2 Q1/2) has a slim chance to get to the 1 line, they have to win @URI to have a chance for 1 seed. If Maryland(12-4 Q1/2) wins B1G tourney, they will get there. Arizona has zero chance. Kansas (18-3 Q1/2) and Baylor (15-2 Q1/2) are pretty locked in as 1 seeds. Gonzaga (9-2 Q1/2) is the only other 1 seed quality team.

San Diego State would possibly rather be on the 2 line in the West regional than the 1 in the east
 
Down goes Gtown at De Paul. Its incredibly ridiculous that was a q1 loss vs a team 1-12 in the BE. Anyway this loss sends the Hoyas out and quite possibly puts the Friars in

ASU all but a lock after surviving Oregon State

Florida loses vs Kentucky...still solidly in but missed a chance to shore things up

Bama wins at Ole Miss. One of the few to win around the bubble

St Marys took care of business avoiding a bad loss

Richmond falls at St Bonnies so they remain out

Rhode Island loses at Davidson. Still in but certainly hurts

LSU over So Carolina probably all but eliminates the Cocks while LSU all but locked in

Tex Tech won at Iowa State..all but lockd in

DePaul had wins at Iowa , at Minnesota and over Texas Tech in the non conference that is pretty impressive and the reason for their quad 1 status.
 
DePaul had wins at Iowa , at Minnesota and over Texas Tech in the non conference that is pretty impressive and the reason for their quad 1 status.

2-12.... in Big East....everything flawed with the system explained where 3 games overrides 14 to 18 league games.. .if DePaul was 5-9 in Big East, maybe I'd give it a pass....but 5-9 would put DePaul on the bubble for some fans.
 
2-12.... in Big East....everything flawed with the system explained where 3 games overrides 14 to 18 league games.. .if DePaul was 5-9 in Big East, maybe I'd give it a pass....but 5-9 would put DePaul on the bubble for some fans.
I think the NET is a joke as far as being a formula to consider for NCAA tournament consideration, but as long as it is what they’re using, it’ll float teams like DePaul as a Q1 team the same way it’s floating some of the teams toward the back end of the Big Ten’s likely tournament contenders.

DePaul is one if the oddest teams I can ever remember. It’s the last week of February and they have more wins in the Big Ten then they have in the Big East. They have more road wins in the Big Ten than Rutgers does, a team believed to be a solid “in.” They also have that nice win versus Texas Tech. And yet they’re 2-12 in conference. Almost inexplicable, other than to say that many of their league wins were close, and you’d think that the law of averages would’ve gotten them a few more wins by now, but no.
 
San Diego State would possibly rather be on the 2 line in the West regional than the 1 in the east

unfortunately can't really choose those things. After they start doling out the 1 seeds they basically go down the S curve for the rest of it so the weakest 2 ends up with the #1 overall seed in their region and the strongest 2 gets the worst 1.
 
unfortunately can't really choose those things. After they start doling out the 1 seeds they basically go down the S curve for the rest of it so the weakest 2 ends up with the #1 overall seed in their region and the strongest 2 gets the worst 1.
That’s not correct...geography (while protecting other bracketing principals like spreading out teams from the same conference) plays the primary role, and then they’ll check the strength to see if they need to tweak anything.
 
I think the NET is a joke as far as being a formula to consider for NCAA tournament consideration, but as long as it is what they’re using, it’ll float teams like DePaul as a Q1 team the same way it’s floating some of the teams toward the back end of the Big Ten’s likely tournament contenders.

DePaul is one if the oddest teams I can ever remember. It’s the last week of February and they have more wins in the Big Ten then they have in the Big East. They have more road wins in the Big Ten than Rutgers does, a team believed to be a solid “in.” They also have that nice win versus Texas Tech. And yet they’re 2-12 in conference. Almost inexplicable, other than to say that many of their league wins were close, and you’d think that the law of averages would’ve gotten them a few more wins by now, but no.

The problem isn't particularly that DePaul is ranked too high by the NET. 73 is fine. It just doesn't make sense for road games against the #73 team to be "Q1" games.
 
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That’s not correct...geography (while protecting other bracketing principals like spreading out teams from the same conference) plays the primary role, and then they’ll check the strength to see if they need to tweak anything.

nope. They start with the S curve and then tweak from there.
 
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nope. They start with the S curve and then tweak from there.
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-10-19/how-field-68-teams-picked-march-madness

After placing the #1 seeds, they’ll start with the #5 overall team and look for the closest geographic location, move onto #6 and do the same, etc. There is no type of S-curve to pair 4 with 5, 3 with 6, etc.

They will look to keep things balanced. The commitee will try to avoid putting 1 with 5, making one region stronger than another, etc. But geography drives the bracketing process when going they the teams, not trying to build an S-curve.
 
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-10-19/how-field-68-teams-picked-march-madness

After placing the #1 seeds, they’ll start with the #5 overall team and look for the closest geographic location, move onto #6 and do the same, etc. There is no type of S-curve to pair 4 with 5, 3 with 6, etc.

They will look to keep things balanced. The commitee will try to avoid putting 1 with 5, making one region stronger than another, etc. But geography drives the bracketing process when going they the teams, not trying to build an S-curve.

ummm, from that link...

Procedures for Placing the Teams into the Bracket

1. The committee will place the four No. 1 seeds in each of the four regions, thus determining the Final Four semifinals pairings (overall 1 vs. 4; 2 vs. 3). The overall No. 1 seed has the opportunity to select its preferred first- and second-round site and preferred region.

2. The committee will then place the No. 2 seeds in each region in true seed list order. The committee may relax the principle of keeping teams as close to their area of natural interest for seeding teams on the No. 2 line to avoid, for example, the overall No. 5 seed being sent to the same region as the overall No. 1 seed.




In other words, they literally put the teams down in the order of the S curve first and then adjust from there.

In 2018 if they had been trying to keep teams closer to home they would have put Purdue in the Midwest and Duke in the East instead of vice versa (both 2 seeds that ended up farther from home).
 
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ummm, from that link...

Procedures for Placing the Teams into the Bracket

1. The committee will place the four No. 1 seeds in each of the four regions, thus determining the Final Four semifinals pairings (overall 1 vs. 4; 2 vs. 3). The overall No. 1 seed has the opportunity to select its preferred first- and second-round site and preferred region.

2. The committee will then place the No. 2 seeds in each region in true seed list order. The committee may relax the principle of keeping teams as close to their area of natural interest for seeding teams on the No. 2 line to avoid, for example, the overall No. 5 seed being sent to the same region as the overall No. 1 seed.




In other words, they literally put the teams down in the order of the S curve first and then adjust from there.


thank you..yes this is correct..this PSU fan has been coming here often to chime in with some stuff he hasnt been right on
 
The “placing in true seed list order” means that they go thru the true seed list and place them using their bracketing principals in order, primarily bring geographically...not that they place them in an S-curve in the bracket.

That’s the entire reason they need those other qualifiers after the bolded part.
 
Currently I have dropped Rutgers to a 9 seed, but they are the top 9 seed in the pecking order.

LAST 4 BYES: OKLAHOMA, USC, WICHITA STATE, RHODE ISLAND

LAST 4 IN: PROVIDENCE, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, UTAH STATE, STANFORD


LAST 4 OUT: ALABAMA, RICHMOND, CINCINNATI, UCLA

NEXT 4 OUT: GEORGETOWN, MISSISSIPPI STATE, ARKANSAS, CLEMSON
 
FYI...

https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...tion-committee/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Q: How does the committee decide where teams play in the tournament?

A: That decision process is very much driven by geography. The committee wants teams to play as close to home as possible, and the higher the seed, the higher the priority when it comes to that. However, there are rules that come before that.
...
2. The committee looks for relative balance among the top four seeds in each region, but no effort is made to "snake" the bracket. However, they will not put the top No. 1 and No. 2 seeds together.
 
The “placing in true seed list order” means that they go thru the true seed list and place them using their bracketing principals in order, primarily bring geographically...not that they place them in an S-curve in the bracket.

That’s the entire reason they need those other qualifiers after the bolded part.

the true seed list means they place the #5 ranked team (best 2 seed) and place them in the bracket with the #4 ranked team (worst 1 seed) and so on down the line.

That you seem to not understand that simple point is kinda amusing.
 
the true seed list means they place the #5 ranked team (best 2 seed) and place them in the bracket with the #4 ranked team (worst 1 seed) and so on down the line.

That you seem to not understand that simple point is kinda amusing.
From a Joe Lunardi mailbag...

Hi, Joe:

Love your work, but I have a question about how you (or the NCAA) apply the S-curve ratings to the actual bracket. Basically, my question comes down to this: Does the NCAA actually rank the teams 1-65 and then seed strictly according to the S-curve? If this were the case, the No. 1 overall seed should be in the same region as the worst No. 2 seed (eight on the S-curve) and the best number No. 2 (nine on the S-curve).

However, in the [Monday, Feb. 22] bracket, Kansas is grouped with Villanova (seven on the S-curve) and Vanderbilt (12). Shouldn't that region have Kansas as the No. 2 with West Virginia (eight) as the No. 2 and Ohio State (nine) as the No. 3 and so on?

Additionally, does the NCAA base regional [pairings] for the No. 1 seeds on S-curve placement (for example, should Kansas line up to play the worst No. 1 seed in the Final Four?). I seem to remember based on previous years that they do not, but wouldn't it make sense?

Thanks in advance. I seem to have this question every year around this time and would appreciate knowing the actual procedure once and for all.

Brian Herrmann

Durham, N.C.



Brian raised all good and common questions. Let me answer two of them right off the bat and then take you through the process of seeding the top four lines in the current (Feb. 22) bracket.

First, the committee does indeed rank the entire field 1-65 before actual bracketing begins. This so-called S-curve is followed to the extent that the various bracketing principles are not violated. In addition, teams are given geographic preferences so long as no unreasonable imbalance is created among the four regions.

Second, the four regions are indeed paired by the S-curve ranking of the No. 1 seeds. So instead of a set rotation of region pairings (East vs. West, South vs. Midwest, etc.), the regions are assigned so that the best No. 1 seed would play the "worst" No. 1 seed, etc., if all reach the Final Four.

Now let's go through the Feb. 22 bracket for teams 1-16 on Monday's S-curve:

(1) Kansas: As the No. 1 overall seed, KU gets the most favorable region (Midwest, St. Louis) and sub-region (Oklahoma City) placement.

(2) Kentucky: UK's natural assignment would seem to be South (Houston) and New Orleans. However, the campus is much closer to the East Regional (Syracuse) and Milwaukee sub-regional.

(3) Syracuse: The Orange cannot play where they host, so the next-closest available region is the South (Houston). This is mitigated somewhat by the convenient Buffalo sub-regional.

(4) Purdue: Our final No. 1 seed goes West (Salt Lake City), but receives the closest available sub-regional (Milwaukee).

(5) Duke: Remember, geography takes precedence over S-curve ranking so long as the overall regions are relatively balanced. The Blue Devils are closest to the East Region (Syracuse) and Jacksonville sub-regional. A count begins for the S-curve totals in each region, with the East sitting at seven (Kentucky-2 plus Duke-5).

(6) Kansas State: K-State cannot be in the Midwest with Kansas, so the Wildcats get the South Region (Houston) and the second pod in the Oklahoma City sub-regional. The S-curve count for this region is nine (Syracuse-3 plus Kansas St-6).

(7) Villanova: With only the Midwest and West available, these Wildcats find themselves in the closer Midwest (St. Louis) and convenient Providence sub-regional. The S-curve count for the Midwest is eight (Kansas-1 plus Nova-7).

(8) West Virginia: All that's left for WVU is the West, which is handy in that the first three teams from any conference have to be in separate regions as a bracketing principle. The Mountaineers get Salt Lake City and the second Buffalo pod. We are watching the S-curve count in the West, however, which is a little out of balance at 12 (Purdue-4 plus West Virginia-8).
 
the true seed list means they place the #5 ranked team (best 2 seed) and place them in the bracket with the #4 ranked team (worst 1 seed) and so on down the line.

That you seem to not understand that simple point is kinda amusing.
2019, here is the Selection Committe's final team ranking, and where each team ended...

1 Duke - EAST
2 Virginia - SOUTH
3 North Carolina - MIDWEST
4 Gonzaga - WEST

5 Tennessee - SOUTH
6 Michigan St - EAST
7 Kentucky - MIDWEST
8 Michigan - WEST

9 Houston - MIDWEST
10 Texas Tech - WEST
11 LSU - EAST
12 Purdue - SOUTH

13 Kansas - MIDWEST
14 Florida State - WEST
15 Kansas State - SOUTH
16 Virginia Tech - EAST
 
pasting a Joe Lunardi mailbag explaining that they mostly follow an S-curve does not help your incorrect statement
 
nothing like two fans of other schools hijacking the thread
Sorry about that...it's a great thread, and I love checking out what you do.

However, I get annoyed when people complain about the bracket on Selection Sunday with "Team XXX got a favorable draw, the NCAA is biased" when the committee is simply following their bracketing principles. The issue is that many fans don't understand those principles.
 
pasting a Joe Lunardi mailbag explaining that they mostly follow an S-curve does not help your incorrect statement
I thought you'd be able to pick out the statements that apply, such as...

(5) Duke: Remember, geography takes precedence over S-curve ranking so long as the overall regions are relatively balanced. The Blue Devils are closest to the East Region (Syracuse) and Jacksonville sub-regional. A count begins for the S-curve totals in each region, with the East sitting at seven (Kentucky-2 plus Duke-5)..
 
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