BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS 2/18
- Thread starter bac2therac
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this is what the NET says....this is NET rankings
14 FSU 16 SHU
48 Arkansas 88 SFA
61 Notre Dame 101 Pitt
68 UCONN 117 St. Bonnies
93 La Tech 159 UMASS
119 SD State 204 Lafayette
187 Princeton 216 Drexel
191 Portland State 249 Bryant
262 Troy 291 Niagara
295 North Alabama 313 NJIT
328 Western Illinois 328 Caldwell
151 Average 189 Average
14 FSU 16 SHU
48 Arkansas 88 SFA
61 Notre Dame 101 Pitt
68 UCONN 117 St. Bonnies
93 La Tech 159 UMASS
119 SD State 204 Lafayette
187 Princeton 216 Drexel
191 Portland State 249 Bryant
262 Troy 291 Niagara
295 North Alabama 313 NJIT
328 Western Illinois 328 Caldwell
151 Average 189 Average
not sure where bart gets that to be honest. strike that from my arguments...inadmissable evidence
There is basically no chance this happens.
how does the NET have us with a tougher OOC when you rank with NET all games hardest to easiest every game is easier for RU?
To be fair, he hasn't "fallen for it", that is actually the SOS that will be on the team sheet. So it is the one that "matters". Which is hilarious but benefits us in this case.
while I have RU ahead of Indiana by a couple of notches, Indiana has a far easier schedule going forward. They could easily go 3-2 which locks them in, 3 home games but even if they dont beat PSU I still think 2-3 would be enough. They dont have any bad losses or obvious flaws just a nagging NET overall rank. I really do not see an issue with them going now that they got a Q1 road win.
isn't that captured by NET?
If you look at both teams OOC I don't see how one can conclude ours wasnt easier. Use any metric you want.
being simplistic....
ACC SEC ACC AAC
VS
BE ACC
Illinois is fine. Take care of Northwestern and Nebraska and thats all they need. Tgey basically are a lock right now
[QUOTE="NewJerseyHawk,
I will point out a trend of leagues perhaps seeing top programs "mail-in" games against bubble teams in late Feb to early March....not saying that league commissioners are playing puppets, but each league has to maximize their leagues. If a strong seeded team can sacrifice a game and not have it impact their status, I'm certain it is considered by someone, somewhere.[/QUOTE]
Add Arizona St beating Oregon to the list. There seems to be enough of these top ranked teams losing to conference bubble teams to warrant suspicion.
I will point out a trend of leagues perhaps seeing top programs "mail-in" games against bubble teams in late Feb to early March....not saying that league commissioners are playing puppets, but each league has to maximize their leagues. If a strong seeded team can sacrifice a game and not have it impact their status, I'm certain it is considered by someone, somewhere.[/QUOTE]
Add Arizona St beating Oregon to the list. There seems to be enough of these top ranked teams losing to conference bubble teams to warrant suspicion.
NET was a recognition by the NCAA that team wide efficiency was a better measure of strength than just straight wins and losses like RPI. Unfortunately, they decided to just keep measuring SOS by the RPI method instead of what they said was a better way.
It is very dumb but it is what it is.
Arizona State is better than Oregon at this point.
If this were true they would let USC beat Colorado.
This isnt happening
What isn’t happening? They have 4 locks in ASU, Arizona, Oregon, and Colorado. Are you saying that both USC and Stanford aren’t getting in?
I actually wanted to reply to the post above you
the idea of some conspiracy theory that leagues are having certain schools lose to have more schools get at large bids..that an insane theory
the example I just gave was USC
USC is no sure thing, they are falling closer to the at the last 4 in line. Stanford is in trouble themselves, barely in or barely out depending on what bracketologists you look at....so they have 4 locks but the other 2 are up for debate
Im just saying no one ordered Oregon to lose to ASU
the idea of some conspiracy theory that leagues are having certain schools lose to have more schools get at large bids..that an insane theory
the example I just gave was USC
USC is no sure thing, they are falling closer to the at the last 4 in line. Stanford is in trouble themselves, barely in or barely out depending on what bracketologists you look at....so they have 4 locks but the other 2 are up for debate
Im just saying no one ordered Oregon to lose to ASU
I hope no one believes this.
........and maybe we can dream of one why the officials are against us.
We have 443 fouls called on us and only 472 called on our opponents.
P12 only has 3 locks, one likely in Arizona St, one 50/50 in USC, and one possibly in Stanford.
About equal chance they end up with 4 or 5 bids, not much chance of 3 or 6.
Arizona St is definitely not a lock but they are in good shape.
About equal chance they end up with 4 or 5 bids, not much chance of 3 or 6.
Arizona St is definitely not a lock but they are in good shape.
Updated Seedings as we head into the weekend
1: BAYLOR, KANSAS, SAN DIEGO STATE, GONZAGA
2: MARYLAND, DAYTON, DUKE, FLORIDA STATE
3: SETON HALL, LOUISVILLE, VILLANOVA, CREIGHTON
4: WEST VIRGINIA, KENTUCKY, COLORADO, ARIZONA
5: PENN STATE, AUBURN, OREGON, MICHIGAN STATE
6: BUTLER, IOWA, MICHIGAN, OHIO STATE
7: MARQUETTE, ILLINOIS, WISCONSIN, TEXAS TECH
8: HOUSTON, BYU, LSU, RUTGERS
9: ST MARY'S, ARIZONA STATE, FLORIDA, INDIANA
10: VIRGINIA, RHODE ISLAND, XAVIER, OKLAHOMA
11: WICHITA STATE, USC, NORTH CAROLINA STATE/STANFORD, UTAH STATE/GEORGETOWN
12: EAST TENNESSEE STATE, NORTHERN IOWA, LIBERTY, STEPHEN F AUSTIN
13: YALE, AKRON, VERMONT, NORTH TEXAS
14: NEW MEXICO STATE, UC IRVINE, HOFSTRA, MONTANA
15: WRIGHT STATE, COLGATE, LITTLE ROCK, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
16: WINTHROP, AUSTIN PEAY, NORFOLK STATE/ ST FRANCIS, PRAIRIE VIEW/SIENA
LAST 4 IN: GEORGETOWN, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, UTAH STATE, STANFORD
LAST 4 OUT: RICHMOND, PURDUE, ALABAMA, CINCINNATI
NEXT 4 OUT: PROVIDENCE, VCU, MISSISSIPPI STATE, CLEMSON
1: BAYLOR, KANSAS, SAN DIEGO STATE, GONZAGA
2: MARYLAND, DAYTON, DUKE, FLORIDA STATE
3: SETON HALL, LOUISVILLE, VILLANOVA, CREIGHTON
4: WEST VIRGINIA, KENTUCKY, COLORADO, ARIZONA
5: PENN STATE, AUBURN, OREGON, MICHIGAN STATE
6: BUTLER, IOWA, MICHIGAN, OHIO STATE
7: MARQUETTE, ILLINOIS, WISCONSIN, TEXAS TECH
8: HOUSTON, BYU, LSU, RUTGERS
9: ST MARY'S, ARIZONA STATE, FLORIDA, INDIANA
10: VIRGINIA, RHODE ISLAND, XAVIER, OKLAHOMA
11: WICHITA STATE, USC, NORTH CAROLINA STATE/STANFORD, UTAH STATE/GEORGETOWN
12: EAST TENNESSEE STATE, NORTHERN IOWA, LIBERTY, STEPHEN F AUSTIN
13: YALE, AKRON, VERMONT, NORTH TEXAS
14: NEW MEXICO STATE, UC IRVINE, HOFSTRA, MONTANA
15: WRIGHT STATE, COLGATE, LITTLE ROCK, SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
16: WINTHROP, AUSTIN PEAY, NORFOLK STATE/ ST FRANCIS, PRAIRIE VIEW/SIENA
LAST 4 IN: GEORGETOWN, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, UTAH STATE, STANFORD
LAST 4 OUT: RICHMOND, PURDUE, ALABAMA, CINCINNATI
NEXT 4 OUT: PROVIDENCE, VCU, MISSISSIPPI STATE, CLEMSON
Unfortunately, there are conspiracy theorists at every turn. Teams aren't tanking games under orders of the conferences (that is truly laughable) and refs don't have it in for us - they are far from perfect, missing calls and sometimes it's unfairly lopsided, but that can be in either direction (most often for the home team as several studies have shown), but that's just human fallibility.
Like both Michigan games.... Food for thought!
Sticking head in the sand if believe fouls even out. We R getting the short end of stick. How do you quantify when calls are made as well as calls that are not made?
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I dont know..been doing it for years....haha does it make sense...maybe?
the last 4 out of the tournament
the last 4 out of the tournament
If you are like any of the fans around me you are 70% wrong when you complain about a foul or infraction and of course never make note when we get a call.
472 fouls on opponents to 443 fouls on RU, overall, and 258 fouls on opponents to 271 fouls on RU, in the B1G (and 276 FTs for opponents and 274 FTs for RU). Pretty even in the B1G, which is what most people are concerned with (especially since we're more aggressive defensively than most other teams), so not sure how you can say things aren't pretty even. First Michigan game I thought was too lopsided in fouls, but not the other night, where it was 17-13 (RU-UM), which makes sense, as we fouled a few near the end.
VCU blown out at St Louis and they are officially eliminated from any bubble consideration totally
LAST 4 IN: GEORGETOWN, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, UTAH STATE, STANFORD
LAST 4 OUT: RICHMOND, PURDUE, ALABAMA, CINCINNATI
NEXT 4 OUT: PROVIDENCE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, CLEMSON, ARKANSAS
LAST 4 IN: GEORGETOWN, NORTH CAROLINA STATE, UTAH STATE, STANFORD
LAST 4 OUT: RICHMOND, PURDUE, ALABAMA, CINCINNATI
NEXT 4 OUT: PROVIDENCE, MISSISSIPPI STATE, CLEMSON, ARKANSAS
But doesn't it put St.Louis officially on the bubble?
Like many years A10 and P10 most interesting going into conference tourney and usually some one steals a bid... Remember UCLA?
After Dayton, You have Rhode, Richmond, St. Louis, Duquesne, slumping VCU and even St. Bonnie could go on a roll.
PAC 12: If UCLA goes on a roll you have Oregon, AZ, ASU, Colorado, USC, and Stanford?
On the positive side not sure if any mid majors out there that lose conference tourney that would get/deserving of a bid.
i guess but now i know that after doing this for 20 years, i realize no one has been reading it until this year if this is the first year someone mentioned about last 4 out:WideSmile:
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