I'm one that had childhood asthma. I'm 60 now but every 2-3 years, I'd get a bad respiratory infection and I'd use an inhaler for a few days afterward. I got this Covid 19, in the 2nd week began having trouble breathing and thought I'd be going to the hospital. After getting over it, I had a cough and used an inhaler frequently for a month before I could say my breathing was normal again. I tested positive for antibodies but don't want to go through that again so am still wearing the mask indoors and keeping my distance outdoors.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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So? What is the hospital rates and death rates? Again cherry picking
Well yeah, because different parts of the country are handling it much differently.
Which isn't to say Texas reopening was the wrong move.
But the news I'm hearing from down there is they are not taking it seriously.
I expect we'll see more reports like this: a woman and 15 of her friends all caught the virus one evening in Jacksonville at a bar. The saddest part is that the woman they interviewed was a health care worker who had been in quarantine for months and decided to break that quarantine for a night out with friends. A bunch of bars have closed again in FL, as the state reached a record for new cases today. It's not good to see our three most populous states all hitting record (FL/TX) or near record (CA) levels at the same time.
https://nypost.com/2020/06/16/florida-healthcare-worker-15-friends-catch-covid-19-at-bar/
I think we were careless, and we went out into a public place when we should not have,” she said of the group’s excursion to the popular Lynch’s Irish Pub in Jacksonville Beach on June 6 — a day after most of Florida entered Phase Two of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ start-up plan, which included the reopening of bars.
After several months of properly social distancing and “doing everything the right way,” Crisp said, the freedom of the moment may have gotten the better of her and her pals.
“We were not wearing masks,” she said. “I think we had a whole ‘out of sight, out of mind’ mentality.
“We should be wearing masks. We should be social distancing,” she said. “It was too soon to open everything back up.”
https://nypost.com/2020/06/16/florida-healthcare-worker-15-friends-catch-covid-19-at-bar/
I think we were careless, and we went out into a public place when we should not have,” she said of the group’s excursion to the popular Lynch’s Irish Pub in Jacksonville Beach on June 6 — a day after most of Florida entered Phase Two of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ start-up plan, which included the reopening of bars.
After several months of properly social distancing and “doing everything the right way,” Crisp said, the freedom of the moment may have gotten the better of her and her pals.
“We were not wearing masks,” she said. “I think we had a whole ‘out of sight, out of mind’ mentality.
“We should be wearing masks. We should be social distancing,” she said. “It was too soon to open everything back up.”
Its politics now...anyone can see whats going on
The lockdowns, social distancing and wearing masks were never intended to eliminate this virus! It's sole purpose was to slow the spread so as not to overwhelm hospitals. Stop bringing up isolated spots that have seen very local increases. Who cares? All the national numbers are way down from the peak. We are two weeks past the first protests and nothing. No social distancing, no masks, no increase. The numbers don't support a spike in the US. Even in NJ with beaches open for weeks and the millions who protested in NYC and Philly for over 2 weels, nothing!
What am I even cherry picking? I just asked what happened to Texas today because their positive tests were through the roof.
No idea what their hospital rates, but they have a ton of hospitals so they have a long way to go there. And death rates were pretty flat last time I looked. But this thread is more about forecasting...
Read my post above this. And deaths nationwide are well below the peak. You don't give hospital percentage of coronavirus patients nor do you show an increase in deaths. Hospitals are filling up now that they are allowed to do elective surgeries.
Cuomo announced that NY repeated their seroprevalence antibody survey and, overall, the percentage of people in NY with antibodies went from 12.3% (on 5/1) to 13.4% (on 6/13). Below is the breakdown for the regions in the state and for NYC, showing that the Bronx is up to 32%, while SI/Manhattan are only around 15-16%, with Brooklyn/Queens in the low 20s.
With 30,700 dead as of 6/13 that's an infection fatality ratio of 1.15% (vs. 2.68MM infected), which is up a bit from the 1.0% it was back on 5/1. Just to repeat the hard facts: at an eventual IFR of 0.5-1.0% (assuming it comes down a bit) and assuming 55-80% get infected in the US, that's 900K - 2.6MM US deaths, eventually, assuming no interventions and no cure/vaccine. It's really simple math, but somehow people just don't seem to be getting it.
I've said I think we'll have a near cure by early fall in the engineered antibodies and a vaccine by the end of the year, plus treatments are improving now, as we saw today, but the preceding numbers show the worst case, plus it's possible the cure doesn't pan out and the vaccine is delayed by 6+ months, which is why people should practice mask-wearing and distancing until we have a cure/vaccine. The probability of luck with the virus weakening or more widespread native immunity than we realized (which would also greatly reduce deaths) is not zero, but it's unlikely.
With 30,700 dead as of 6/13 that's an infection fatality ratio of 1.15% (vs. 2.68MM infected), which is up a bit from the 1.0% it was back on 5/1. Just to repeat the hard facts: at an eventual IFR of 0.5-1.0% (assuming it comes down a bit) and assuming 55-80% get infected in the US, that's 900K - 2.6MM US deaths, eventually, assuming no interventions and no cure/vaccine. It's really simple math, but somehow people just don't seem to be getting it.
I've said I think we'll have a near cure by early fall in the engineered antibodies and a vaccine by the end of the year, plus treatments are improving now, as we saw today, but the preceding numbers show the worst case, plus it's possible the cure doesn't pan out and the vaccine is delayed by 6+ months, which is why people should practice mask-wearing and distancing until we have a cure/vaccine. The probability of luck with the virus weakening or more widespread native immunity than we realized (which would also greatly reduce deaths) is not zero, but it's unlikely.
By isolated spots you mean the states of Texas, AZ, FL, and CA amongst others?
Actually look at the spots in each state. So yes isolated. Please give me the death rates in all those states compared to NY, NJ, Conn and Eastern PA
Again, the point is, their rates are all increasing, so while it is maybe not overwhelming those states at the moment, the trends are heading that way.
There was a time when people were saying "look only 1000 deaths, the flu kills 60K", but then........
The overall numbers are only down, because NY/NJ/CT are way, way down vs. where they were. The case rate for the rest of the US is up and substantially up in some states. We're unlikely to see what happened here with incredibly explosive exponential growth, simply because there's no element of surprise and states now have testing (there were likely 25,000 people infected in the NYC metro area by early March before we had run any tests and they seeded that huge outbreak), but to not understand that things are trending poorly in many states is putting one's head in the sand. Look what SK and China do when they have 50 new cases, while we...open up more bars and restaurants.
What's political about reporting increases in cases and hospitalizations? It's simple data - and deaths will likely start increasing in these states soon, although maybe not, since we now have a lot of people being treated with convalescent plasma which looks very promising, plus we've seen some nice advances with several other treatments (remdesivir, tocilizumab, and now dexamethasone). Of course, T and a few other morons will scream out that the virus is weakening and be wrong.
Is any state overwhelmed with hospital patients? Is any state spiking in death rates to the point that it has come close to the worse in the NE?
Yes they are increasing but what is your point? Hospitals aren't overwhelmed. Deaths aren't at an all time high. Cherry picking, fear mongering
The two links show no new information vs. what was in the preprint about the 11 patients, which was promising, but not definitive, and the video is from 4/30, where they talked about great results beyond the 11 patients and said there would be more "tomorrow" but I've yet to see anything published beyond those 11 patients. Hence my skepticism. Do you have anything new to share?
No and they might not be, as I just posted, since states now are totally, hugely monumentally different situations from what NY/NJ went through. Doesn't mean the rise in cases/hospitalizations isn't very concerning and there are reports of some hospitals in some locations being very close to full. Also, it's not just about not overwhelming hospitals - it's also about preventing serious illnesses and deaths, especially when most of these are easily preventable.
CDC = 0.25% fatality rateCuomo announced that NY repeated their seroprevalence antibody survey and, overall, the percentage of people in NY with antibodies went from 12.3% (on 5/1) to 13.4% (on 6/13). Below is the breakdown for the regions in the state and for NYC, showing that the Bronx is up to 32%, while SI/Manhattan are only around 15-16%, with Brooklyn/Queens in the low 20s.
With 30,700 dead as of 6/13 that's an infection fatality ratio of 1.15% (vs. 2.68MM infected), which is up a bit from the 1.0% it was back on 5/1. Just to repeat the hard facts: at an eventual IFR of 0.5-1.0% (assuming it comes down a bit) and assuming 55-80% get infected in the US, that's 900K - 2.6MM US deaths, eventually, assuming no interventions and no cure/vaccine. It's really simple math, but somehow people just don't seem to be getting it.
I've said I think we'll have a near cure by early fall in the engineered antibodies and a vaccine by the end of the year, plus treatments are improving now, as we saw today, but the preceding numbers show the worst case, plus it's possible the cure doesn't pan out and the vaccine is delayed by 6+ months, which is why people should practice mask-wearing and distancing until we have a cure/vaccine. The probability of luck with the virus weakening or more widespread native immunity than we realized (which would also greatly reduce deaths) is not zero, but it's unlikely.
Do you believe that the lockdowns, social distancing and masks were intended to eliminate the virus?? Sounds like it. BTW all of it failed in NJ, NY and Eastern PA. All of those efforts didn't stop the massive deaths, serious illness in those states. The 3 biggest lockdown states lead the world in infections and deaths.
Az is currently at 1300 ICU beds in use, in mid March the total capacity was 800 something.
So they did increase capacity, which was a necessary thing, but their new hospitalizations do continue to increase. Right now they are at 80% capacity. Do we have to wait till they are over 100% before it is a story?
On the other hand I'm happy to post NJ has posted 4 straight days under 500 new cases. 18 straight days under 1000 new cases. 7 day average positivity rate under 2%.
So there are decreases in some states and increases in others. The overall #'s may show a downward trend, but that is a story which is devoid of details.
Oy vey, those states implemented those measures way late. This is a ridiculous stance to take.
You know why they increased in captivity? They were empty during the lockdown. Same as here in Philly.
I won't deny that both sides put political spins on it, but the virus itself, is a virus. It's highly contagious. It has killed a lot of people..
Oy vey? The state's you are crying about did nothing opened early and still have better numbers than the tri state area
Very true. The virus just ran its course in NJ. Perhaps there will be a second wave, but the "lockdown" was a massive failure, especially in nursing homes.
Do you think hospitals capacities were down during the lock down?
your logic is tremendously flawed.
The lockdown was implemented late, but it worked. Look at the recent daily new cases.
How can a state "do nothing" and then "open early"?
Yes it is.
Whitebus, you are usually reasonable. When T2K is on your side against RU#’s, you’ve gotta take a step back and think. And have the courage to admit maybe I’m wrong.
I’m not saying follow #’s blindly, but there are now quite a few of us telling you that your logic is ludicrous and dangerous. Take that as you wish.
I really don’t give a crap about anything you’re saying and am not arguing any of it. I saw a huge spike on a graph and that’s it. Have an edible or something and relax.
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