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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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So New Jersey at it’s peak on April 3,2020 had 4380 new cases and 468 deaths with a population 1/3 the size of Texas... Arizona according to the doomsday crowd had 2500 new cases in a state with 6.8 million ... it is amazing we have become the culture which loves bad news ... politics certainly doesn’t help people think in a reasonable manner ... still too many people reporting who shouldn’t be reporting.

AZ is trending in a bad way. With exponential growth, those numbers can explode. And there is still a governor who seems to continue to have a blindfold on.

I am not a chemical engineer (@RU848789 maybe you know)

This might be why the Chinese are largely focussing on "old school" approaches - grow the virus, attenuate or kill it and inject. My guess is that China will get a vaccine first, but our companies will make a lot more money (how is that for cynical?). I was told by a financial guy that Modern's valuation is at a point where they will need to earn $4.6 billion next year.

Grow the virus? My bet is they grew it already and released it (accidently or not) causing this pandemic.

All states know when an ICU bed is in use, there is no lag here.

The states don't immediately know when a patient comes in if they have Covid. They can suspect it, and we see that in the stats(see covid like illness surveillance) , but they need to wait for test results to come in to confirm it. That is the lag.

Test results can and should be back in less than 24 hours...or even much less for many facilities.

I expect we'll see more reports like this: a woman and 15 of her friends all caught the virus one evening in Jacksonville at a bar. The saddest part is that the woman they interviewed was a health care worker who had been in quarantine for months and decided to break that quarantine for a night out with friends. A bunch of bars have closed again in FL, as the state reached a record for new cases today. It's not good to see our three most populous states all hitting record (FL/TX) or near record (CA) levels at the same time.

https://nypost.com/2020/06/16/florida-healthcare-worker-15-friends-catch-covid-19-a

Like I said a week and a half ago..people will be letting their guards down when they taste a little freedom. This is a prime example of what can happen.

CDC = 0.25% fatality rate

You still havent responded about the dramatic rise of cases in the states you touted as doing well previously. This is the fourth time you were asked to do so.

Very true. The virus just ran its course in NJ. Perhaps there will be a second wave, but the "lockdown" was a massive failure, especially in nursing homes.

LOL..lockdown was a massive failure? You can certainly cite nursing homes with cause, but the lockdown was a primary reason a healthcare disaster was averted. Saying it was a massive failure is helping to cement your troll status. Well done.
 
Do you believe that the lockdowns, social distancing and masks were intended to eliminate the virus?? Sounds like it. BTW all of it failed in NJ, NY and Eastern PA. All of those efforts didn't stop the massive deaths, serious illness in those states. The 3 biggest lockdown states lead the world in infections and deaths.

It definitely did not fail. There is a reason our numbers are so low these days, and it’s not because “it just ran it’s course”.

Our numbers were so high because we went months doing nothing (thanks China) and are highly concentrated. We are the biggest hub from Europe/China.
 
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This is the fourth time you were asked to do so.
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What is your question again?
 
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What is your question again?

Let's see..you have ignored it three times and you are telling me you cannot decipher what I am asking from my last post. You seem to be sharper than what you present, so I will assume you enjoy playing these childish games.
 
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Do you believe that the lockdowns, social distancing and masks were intended to eliminate the virus?? Sounds like it. BTW all of it failed in NJ, NY and Eastern PA. All of those efforts didn't stop the massive deaths, serious illness in those states. The 3 biggest lockdown states lead the world in infections and deaths.

You really have zero idea of what actually happened, do you? We didn't even get a chance to try any interventions, since we were so woefully unprepared because of not having any testing to know we were in the midst of the worst outbreak this planet has seen so far. If we had been testing like other countries, we might've known we had 25K cases by early March in NYC Metro - instead we had run zero tests by then and the virus was growing exponentially, because this area received, by far, the most infected people from abroad (from Europe) and this area has the highest population density and mass transit density, fueling the explosive growth, unknown to everyone.

If we had been testing and had proactively put a tracing/isolating infrastructure in place like several other countries, we would've greatly reduced the cases/deaths. Alternatively, even if we had only been aggressively testing, we would've known the explosive growth and could've shut down ~2 weeks earlier, saving 75-90% of our deaths. But we had nothing in place, despite having written the "pandemic playbook" that South Korea, Taiwan and others followed so well, so really all we could do was shut everything down and it then took 4-6 weeks for the shutdowns to "flatten the curve," aided by social distancing and masks a bit, although masks weren't even recommended until early April by CDC.

And while we've had the most cases/deaths, the very late shutdowns were effective eventually and did largely protect the hospitals, which was the first priority. We also would've had 3-4X as many cases/deaths if we didn't shut down and start practicing distancing/mask-wearing. But if we had taken the approach of several other countries and followed our own playbook, yes, we could've kept cases and deaths far, far below what they were (if we had the deaths per capita of SK, China, Taiwan, Japan, etc., we'd only have 1000-2000 deaths). And guess what - if we had controlled cases even half that well, we would have had no hospital issues at all.

Last point: it will never be fair to compare what happened in the DC-Boston corridor with anything that's happening recently to now, since all the other states got to learn from our mistakes - and even with that, some are still not learning and that's sad. They're unlikely to reach exponential growth because they at least learned the lesson of testing, so that they're not flying blind and will certainly ratchet up interventions in some way (closures/mandatory masks/etc.) should case rates really start to climb. But even a slow, steady burn will have illnesses and deaths pile up over time and it's sad that some will accept that when we could do so much better.
 
Yes it is.

Whitebus, you are usually reasonable. When T2K is on your side against RU#’s, you’ve gotta take a step back and think. And have the courage to admit maybe I’m wrong.

I’m not saying follow #’s blindly, but there are now quite a few of us telling you that your logic is ludicrous and dangerous. Take that as you wish.
Best post in thread, although you could have likely had anyone other than WB in there and it would still be true, lol.
 
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You really have zero idea of what actually happened, do you? We didn't even get a chance to try any interventions, since we were so woefully unprepared because of not having any testing to know we were in the midst of the worst outbreak this planet has seen so far. If we had been testing like other countries, we might've known we had 25K cases by early March in NYC Metro - instead we had run zero tests by then and the virus was growing exponentially, because this area received, by far, the most infected people from abroad (from Europe) and this area has the highest population density and mass transit density, fueling the explosive growth, unknown to everyone.

If we had been testing and had proactively put a tracing/isolating infrastructure in place like several other countries, we would've greatly reduced the cases/deaths. Alternatively, even if we had only been aggressively testing, we would've known the explosive growth and could've shut down ~2 weeks earlier, saving 75-90% of our deaths. But we had nothing in place, despite having written the "pandemic playbook" that South Korea, Taiwan and others followed so well, so really all we could do was shut everything down and it then took 4-6 weeks for the shutdowns to "flatten the curve," aided by social distancing and masks a bit, although masks weren't even recommended until early April by CDC.

And while we've had the most cases/deaths, the very late shutdowns were effective eventually and did largely protect the hospitals, which was the first priority. We also would've had 3-4X as many cases/deaths if we didn't shut down and start practicing distancing/mask-wearing. But if we had taken the approach of several other countries and followed our own playbook, yes, we could've kept cases and deaths far, far below what they were (if we had the deaths per capita of SK, China, Taiwan, Japan, etc., we'd only have 1000-2000 deaths). And guess what - if we had controlled cases even half that well, we would have had no hospital issues at all.

Last point: it will never be fair to compare what happened in the DC-Boston corridor with anything that's happening recently to now, since all the other states got to learn from our mistakes - and even with that, some are still not learning and that's sad. They're unlikely to reach exponential growth because they at least learned the lesson of testing, so that they're not flying blind and will certainly ratchet up interventions in some way (closures/mandatory masks/etc.) should case rates really start to climb. But even a slow, steady burn will have illnesses and deaths pile up over time and it's sad that some will accept that when we could do so much better.
No I know exactly what occurred! And this post backs up my point. Thank you. You say that other states won't see levels like in the NE because they have learned from our mistakes. Are better setup for treating those infected. BINGO! Reporting spikes in cases now will not have the same negative results as they did in the NE. Yet the fear mongers keep reporting these so called spikes as heading to the path of doom. It's complete nonsense.
 
Test results can and should be back in less than 24 hours...or even much less for many facilities.


.

Key word here is "should". In NJ I know multiple people recently who it took 3-4 days to get results.

Is AZ different? Faster? Can't say I'd be completely surprised.
 
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No I know exactly what occurred! And this post backs up my point. Thank you. You say that other states won't see levels like in the NE because they have learned from our mistakes. Are better setup for treating those infected. BINGO! Reporting spikes in cases now will not have the same negative results as they did in the NE. Yet the fear mongers keep reporting these so called spikes as heading to the path of doom. It's complete nonsense.

Just because it is not as bad, it does not mean it will not be bad.

The early situation in NYC was absolutely a path to doom. The path these other states are on might just be a path to the town just before doom. It's not a good place either.
 
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No I know exactly what occurred! And this post backs up my point. Thank you. You say that other states won't see levels like in the NE because they have learned from our mistakes. Are better setup for treating those infected. BINGO! Reporting spikes in cases now will not have the same negative results as they did in the NE. Yet the fear mongers keep reporting these so called spikes as heading to the path of doom. It's complete nonsense.

Why are you so offended by data? We post trends when things are improving and do the same on the other side of the spectrum when things are worsening.
 
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On Friday,Northfield Park,just south of Cleveland,will become the first racetrack in North America to allow bettors on the premises.
 
NBC News just reported that NJ is severely spiking. I don’t see that anywhere else though including Murphy’s briefing yesterday
 
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Why are you so offended by data? We post trends when things are improving and do the same on the other side of the spectrum when things are worsening.
The data I'm fine with. It's some people's interpretation of it that is the problem.
 
NBC News just reported that NJ is severely spiking. I don’t see that anywhere else though including Murphy’s briefing yesterday
Certainly not according to the reported stats. Trend has very much going the other way.

Does NBC know something about lab results which have not yet been reported? Do they provide a source?
 
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I'd like to see the report before I slam it.

Not seeing anything on google.
They just posted their normal map on the today show and the fiat color was yellow for spiking which was like 25 states and I was shocked to see NJ in yellow then they turned to severely spiking in red and included NJ in that which was like 15 states.
 
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They just posted their normal map on the today show and the fiat color was yellow for spiking which was like 25 states and I was shocked to see NJ in yellow then they turned to severely spiking in red and included NJ in that which was like 15 states.
I'm going with screw up on that.
 
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Best post in thread, although you could have likely had anyone other than WB in there and it would still be true, lol.
HA! You love the adulation of your 5 or so supporters in this thread. And seriously, isn't this what it is all about for you? Attention. This is essentially a long running weather thread.
:)
 
HA! You love the adulation of your 5 or so supporters in this thread. And seriously, isn't this what it is all about for you? Attention. This is essentially a long running weather thread.
:)
I can’t for the life of me figure out what you think numbers is doing wrong in this thread. Wearing masks and social distancing is prudent. Nobody is really disputing that anymore. Even the governors of Texas and Florida have said as much. That is really all I see numbers advocating. Other than that he is just providing information on different cures and vaccines. He gets pissed when some idiots say this thing is nothing and we should just go back to life as normal at this time. Anyone saying that is an idiot so it is hard to fault him for getting pissed at that. If you can’t social distance wear a mask. That’s it. It’s very simple. There should be no argument.
 
HA! You love the adulation of your 5 or so supporters in this thread. And seriously, isn't this what it is all about for you? Attention. This is essentially a long running weather thread.
:)

Wow...the attention seeker accusing someone else. That's awesome. #s provides useful data and insight. Much more than you provide and many more supporters for him versus those who stand behind you. Another whiff by you. You still havent addressed my question to you. Big swing and a miss again. Gave you five opportunities to address the spikes in the states you touted as doing wonderful since opening up. I will take your strike five as an abstain which in reality is your tail sinking deeply in between your legs.
 
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They just posted their normal map on the today show and the fiat color was yellow for spiking which was like 25 states and I was shocked to see NJ in yellow then they turned to severely spiking in red and included NJ in that which was like 15 states.
Someone messed up.
 
Wow...the attention seeker accusing someone else. That's awesome. #s provides useful data and insight. Much more than you provide and many more supporters for him versus those who stand behind you. Another whiff by you. You still havent addressed my question to you. Big swing and a miss again. Gave you five opportunities to address the spikes in the states you touted as doing wonderful since opening up. I will take your strike five as an abstain which in reality is your tail sinking deeply in between your legs.
What question was that again, please remind me? :)

Seriously, the small increases in most open states is no big deal. Nothing like NJ and NYC experienced. Their businesses are open, people working, residents living life as they see fit. Not sure what the problem is.
 
Read several reports on that. Steroids based products have helped asthmatics for many years. Including myself back in the 70s. It was my miracle drug. Saved me from a life long issue.


They are a miracle drug put they do have long term consequences. My wife had to be on them for years and as a result has some other significant worries.
 
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I expect we'll see more reports like this: a woman and 15 of her friends all caught the virus one evening in Jacksonville at a bar. The saddest part is that the woman they interviewed was a health care worker who had been in quarantine for months and decided to break that quarantine for a night out with friends. A bunch of bars have closed again in FL, as the state reached a record for new cases today. It's not good to see our three most populous states all hitting record (FL/TX) or near record (CA) levels at the same time.

https://nypost.com/2020/06/16/florida-healthcare-worker-15-friends-catch-covid-19-at-bar/

I think we were careless, and we went out into a public place when we should not have,” she said of the group’s excursion to the popular Lynch’s Irish Pub in Jacksonville Beach on June 6 — a day after most of Florida entered Phase Two of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ start-up plan, which included the reopening of bars.

After several months of properly social distancing and “doing everything the right way,” Crisp said, the freedom of the moment may have gotten the better of her and her pals.

“We were not wearing masks,” she said. “I think we had a whole ‘out of sight, out of mind’ mentality.

“We should be wearing masks. We should be social distancing,” she said. “It was too soon to open everything back up.”

It would be awesome if a case study is done like the one about the restaurant in China where those sitting downwind of the AC got the virus at an alarmingly high rate. Were all those that got it dining/drinking indoors? It looks like this place has just a small outdoor patio from a quick google search. Were those that were outside, and only went inside to use the bathroom OK? If they were only on patio, how packed was the patio? I realize this is all still anecdotal, but I think a lot of us who take this seriously still would like to see things open up a bit where possible and safe. Case studies like this help that goal. The one about outdoor transmissions in China (1 in 7000 iirc) really helped reduce any overwhelming fears I had that the virus was totally inescapable.

One observation I can make without data to back it up is that the beach has to be extremely low risk, or otherwise we would have had a massive outbreak in NJ since the beaches have been packed the last 3 weekends. People are slightly more spread out than usual, but there's still roughly the same amount of people there and the crowds seem to be there 7 days a week already, not just Fri-Sun which is typical of early June.
 
It would be awesome if a case study is done like the one about the restaurant in China where those sitting downwind of the AC got the virus at an alarmingly high rate. Were all those that got it dining/drinking indoors? It looks like this place has just a small outdoor patio from a quick google search. Were those that were outside, and only went inside to use the bathroom OK? If they were only on patio, how packed was the patio? I realize this is all still anecdotal, but I think a lot of us who take this seriously still would like to see things open up a bit where possible and safe. Case studies like this help that goal. The one about outdoor transmissions in China (1 in 7000 iirc) really helped reduce any overwhelming fears I had that the virus was totally inescapable.

One observation I can make without data to back it up is that the beach has to be extremely low risk, or otherwise we would have had a massive outbreak in NJ since the beaches have been packed the last 3 weekends. People are slightly more spread out than usual, but there's still roughly the same amount of people there and the crowds seem to be there 7 days a week already, not just Fri-Sun which is typical of early June.
+1
Essentially no risk at the beach unless someone literally walks up to you and sneezes in your face. It was asinine to "close" beaches and parks. As for the restaurant, it's definitely anecdotal as of now. You read about isolated scenarios but nothing concrete or research. Such cases can be easily hyped in the media, which happens way too frequently. Love to see a real study done but the amount of variables is immense.
 
+1
Essentially no risk at the beach unless someone literally walks up to you and sneezes in your face. It was asinine to "close" beaches and parks. As for the restaurant, it's definitely anecdotal as of now. You read about isolated scenarios but nothing concrete or research. Such cases can be easily hyped in the media, which happens way too frequently. Love to see a real study done but the amount of variables is immense.

Given the information at the time it was not asinine at all.

The fact that this was done in April makes it a blip of a story.
 
Everyone, for the sake of the thread, please stop engaging with the obvious bad faith troll. I vehemently disagree with others in this thread, but at least I believe their intentions are pure.
Why are you getting so upset about a true statement?
 
If you want to argue with the looters, go argue with the looters.

And if there are any looters on this board, then you and that person should start a new thread and have at it.
So you evidently you saw no concerns for the virus spreading during those demonstrations? Riddle me another foolish defense of stupidity... what truly is contemptible is how some posts are labeled political and others not... typical of what is ahead...
 
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