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COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...

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Moderna probably doesn't have a fully staffed competent Standards department. My wife heads one at Big Pharma and it's her departments job to make sure data is collected in ways that meet FDA standards. She's in a constant battle with her company's own scientist and trial departments. Moderna can spin this anyway they want but all Big Pharma knows this is the process. They done screwed up.
 
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Bad news out of Arizona. 117 deaths, previous high was 88 on July 1; their high count in the spring was 67 on May 8.
 
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He also seems to think the lifestyle in HK is any different there than anywhere else in the world. People get up every day, go to work, go to school, go to bars, go out to eat...
He also seems to think the lifestyle in HK is any different there than anywhere else in the world. People get up every day, go to work, go to school, go to bars, go out to eat...
I have been to Hong Kong a couple times. If you need a new suit or some custom shirts I am happy to give you the name of my tailor. Not as good as the tailors in London, but pretty damn good. My Rutgers college roommate runs Asian operations for a LARGE tech firm and lives in Hong Kong. He and his family seem to like it.

When you are your ilk break out the song of the defeated..."Go live in..." do you actually waive a white flag or is it just a metaphorical surrender?
My Ilk? my , my ,my aren’t we being a bit attacking on a personal level... as I said if it fits your lifestyle ( and by the way) I have spent more than my fair share of traveling through the South Pacific and Asia over the years... Hong Kong great food and decent people . For me I love this country ... it has been good to me and my family. Oh and since I’m retired for a number of years and spend most days casually I don’t need suits and ties any longer... beside the Hong Kong sweat shops are not something I support ... as well as the child labor.
 
My view shared on this site often—though much of it lost now as it was on the CE board—is that you keep the stay at home order until you have the resources and planning to reopen successfully (in other words a method of testing and tracing to suppress flare ups — not something like Texas had: “we’re reopening, but don’t worry we’re limiting dining reservations to 10 people / table”)

You take the harsh ‘medicine’ ONCE, suppress transmission, build for the next phase, and then you react quickly to suppress recurrences. That’s why France is planning to have fans in the stands at the French Open in September, while were still figuring out if we can get athletes on fields.

Parts of our country are going to take the medicine at least twice; I revert back to the Bernanke statement from March that I’ve shared here before (paraphrasing): ‘you want to control the health crisis before you reopen the economy, because the worst thing for the economy is if people have to retreat to their homes a second time.’ And it’s not just government orders, where infections are rampant, people will stay home. (Call it the Chipotle effect, even if the risk of death is small, people will avoid exposure until assured the risk has been addressed)
With all the harsh medicine NJ stayed true too it still one of the hardest hit areas so did it really work?
 
he is full of it, there is no need to wear a mask at all times and I and pretty much most people are not wearing masks on the beach or when we are walking our dogs. I am sure some Karen will come in here and scold, if you want to live a year or more of your life like that fine..then stay in at all times and shelter and let the rest of us live

Masks should be worn in stores and offices for a period of time until its deemed not necessary but outdoors um no.
Why do you always mess up the Karen reference? You never get it right regarding who it's supposed to mock. Anyway, it's all about common sense. I'm sure there are some areas when you're out walking and people come right up on you, it may be good to have a mask with you for those occasions. But if you're outdoors and no one else is around, it's probably not necessary to mask up.
 
In regards to a vaccination, I’m sure other countries will require it to enter , this will cause a problem for the no vaccinations crowd who must travel for business or vacations.
 
There is a mystery right now that epidemiologists don’t fully understand. The increase in daily new cases and the 2 week lag death rate has significantly diverged since the start of June. Where as up until June this was a highly correlated chart. This could be because of any number of factors but these are the facts.

Also despite the spike in cases only AZ is at 40% of ICU capacity, TX and SC at 30%. We are in no way at the near 100% ICU capacity crisis levels NY saw in March April. 70% is considered crisis level.

I can’t share the data, sorry.
Arizona is at 90 percent ICU capacity.
 
There is a mystery right now that epidemiologists don’t fully understand. The increase in daily new cases and the 2 week lag death rate has significantly diverged since the start of June. Where as up until June this was a highly correlated chart. This could be because of any number of factors but these are the facts.

Also despite the spike in cases only AZ is at 40% of ICU capacity, TX and SC at 30%. We are in no way at the near 100% ICU capacity crisis levels NY saw in March April. 70% is considered crisis level.

I can’t share the data, sorry.
I assume the divergence is due to younger people getting infected.
 
Bad news out of Arizona. 117 deaths, previous high was 88 on July 1; their high count in the spring was 67 on May 8.
Not possible. Posters in this thread said no death spikes were coming and that it was only young asymtopmatic people being infected now.
 
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There is a mystery right now that epidemiologists don’t fully understand. The increase in daily new cases and the 2 week lag death rate has significantly diverged since the start of June. Where as up until June this was a highly correlated chart. This could be because of any number of factors but these are the facts.

Also despite the spike in cases only AZ is at 40% of ICU capacity, TX and SC at 30%. We are in no way at the near 100% ICU capacity crisis levels NY saw in March April. 70% is considered crisis level.

I can’t share the data, sorry.
It’s called virus mutation but many won’t even discuss it even though the data points directly to it.
 
Why do you always mess up the Karen reference? You never get it right regarding who it's supposed to mock. Anyway, it's all about common sense. I'm sure there are some areas when you're out walking and people come right up on you, it may be good to have a mask with you for those occasions. But if you're outdoors and no one else is around, it's probably not necessary to mask up.

What does that even mean..people come up on you..why would u need a mask for a person passing you
 
With all the harsh medicine NJ stayed true too it still one of the hardest hit areas so did it really work?

I think there’s an argument to be made that it should have happened sooner in NJ and elsewhere, I don’t see the logic in arguing it shouldn’t have happened at all.

That’s like saying, if you don’t have enough lifeboats on the Titanic, why have any at all?
 
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There is a man in Dallas who has lived nearly all of his life dependent on an iron lung because of polio. In his childhood and now senior years, it is a 24 / 7 thing. For much of adulthood, he was able to leave it for a portion of the day (after learning an alternate method of voluntary breathing —essentially forcing himself to gulp air) — he went to college, and practiced law in Texas.

He has long suggested and feared that the vaccine regime will ultimately fail, and diseases like polio will emerge again, because as people like him die, and fear of diseases like polio fades, anti-vaccine conspiracies will become more appealing.

He was right and wrong. @Jm0513 and @bac2therac show we don’t have to forget the diseases themselves before we abandon their vaccines.

Would be curious to know how / why you guys arrived at this decision that you don’t want to be vaccinated.
 
I think there’s an argument to be made that it should have happened sooner in NJ and elsewhere, I don’t see the logic in arguing it shouldn’t have happened at all.

That’s like saying, if you don’t have enough lifeboats on the Titanic, why have any at all?
That not even a close analogy at all. I said from the beginning most of us are going to have to face the music at some point. We didn't start soon enough. We focused on stupid things like closing parks and golfers but ignored the high risk people where all the effort should have been from day 1. Instead we were all put under a one size fits all approach. And it was a complete disaster.
 
Bad news out of Arizona. 117 deaths, previous high was 88 on July 1; their high count in the spring was 67 on May 8.

Not possible. Posters in this thread said no death spikes were coming and that it was only young asymtopmatic people being infected now.

You guys do understand why we report and track 7-day moving averages, right? Yesterday, AZ reported 1 death and today 117.

The 7DMA for AZ deaths is at its highest with 42. For comparison, when NJ was at a similar number of total cases their 7DMA for deaths was 300+ and 7 times higher than AZ currently. Has death increased in AZ since spike? Absolutely, but I find it is better to focus on the 7DMA to avoid sensationalizing record highs and lows.
 
You guys do understand why we report and track 7-day moving averages, right? Yesterday, AZ reported 1 death and today 117.

The 7DMA for AZ deaths is at its highest with 42. For comparison, when NJ was at a similar number of total cases their 7DMA for deaths was 300+ and 7 times higher than AZ currently. Has death increased in AZ since spike? Absolutely, but I find it is better to focus on the 7DMA to avoid sensationalizing record highs and lows.
Tons of people in NJ couldn't get testing then, obviously cases in NJ were much higher than what was known at the time through testing.
 
There is a man in Dallas who has lived nearly all of his life dependent on an iron lung because of polio. In his childhood and now senior years, it is a 24 / 7 thing. For much of adulthood, he was able to leave it for a portion of the day (after learning an alternate method of voluntary breathing —essentially forcing himself to gulp air) — he went to college, and practiced law in Texas.

He has long suggested and feared that the vaccine regime will ultimately fail, and diseases like polio will emerge again, because as people like him die, and fear of diseases like polio fades, anti-vaccine conspiracies will become more appealing.

He was right and wrong. @Jm0513 and @bac2therac show we don’t have to forget the diseases themselves before we abandon their vaccines.

Would be curious to know how / why you guys arrived at this decision that you don’t want to be vaccinated.

Ive never necessarily been anti vax. AT THIS TIME...i do not trust the government or scientific or medical community at all. Maybe that changes but ill wait and see on this one
 
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Here come the anti-vaxxers...

I'm assuming the Trump administration/federal government will eventually approve a vaccine.
Then the fun begins.

I'm a liberal democrat and I trust the Trump administration approved vaccine.

I'm a conservative republican but I don't trust the Trump administration approved vaccine.

What's that saying about strange bedfellows?
 
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That not even a close analogy at all. I said from the beginning most of us are going to have to face the music at some point. We didn't start soon enough. We focused on stupid things like closing parks and golfers but ignored the high risk people where all the effort should have been from day 1. Instead we were all put under a one size fits all approach. And it was a complete disaster.

Maybe I misunderstood your point; thought you were saying we shouldn’t have had a lockdown since a lot of people died anyways. I think it’s fair to say that a lot of people died because we didn’t do enough or didn’t do it right.

Here come the anti-vaxxers...

I watched the movie Contagion again after this whole thing went down; in hindsight, the most impressive part of that script is the Jude Law character. As in the movie, there is an appetite out there to find conspiracy, and a lot of Jude Laws looking to feed that appetite.
 
You guys do understand why we report and track 7-day moving averages, right? Yesterday, AZ reported 1 death and today 117.

The 7DMA for AZ deaths is at its highest with 42. For comparison, when NJ was at a similar number of total cases their 7DMA for deaths was 300+ and 7 times higher than AZ currently. Has death increased in AZ since spike? Absolutely, but I find it is better to focus on the 7DMA to avoid sensationalizing record highs and lows.

We don’t read specific posts in the context of “that person says this,” so I’m not blaming you for the misunderstanding. This isn’t an author specific place unless you’re especially opinionated, but I’ve posted quite a bit recently on week over week progressions (there is a daily cycle that’s worth observing — as I’ll note below re: Az) and moving averages (I noted last week that Az had reached a new high in 7 day moving average, and continues to push higher).

Arizona’s Monday death reporting is somewhat useless. It’s pretty much been 0-5 cases every Monday for weeks — maybe longer. Tuesday reporting out of Az tends to spike significantly higher, suggesting it is a catch up day for record keeping purposes. No coincidence probably that the previous high was also a Tuesday.
 
Tons of people in NJ couldn't get testing then, obviously cases in NJ were much higher than what was known at the time through testing.
Same goes for AZ, their current positivity rate is over 25% so they are not testing nearly enough. In fact their testing has been inadequate for over a month.
 
There is a man in Dallas who has lived nearly all of his life dependent on an iron lung because of polio. In his childhood and now senior years, it is a 24 / 7 thing. For much of adulthood, he was able to leave it for a portion of the day (after learning an alternate method of voluntary breathing —essentially forcing himself to gulp air) — he went to college, and practiced law in Texas.

He has long suggested and feared that the vaccine regime will ultimately fail, and diseases like polio will emerge again, because as people like him die, and fear of diseases like polio fades, anti-vaccine conspiracies will become more appealing.

He was right and wrong. @Jm0513 and @bac2therac show we don’t have to forget the diseases themselves before we abandon their vaccines.

Would be curious to know how / why you guys arrived at this decision that you don’t want to be vaccinated.


I think I will get it as soon as my doctor has it available
 
NY/NJ placed 14 day quarantine requirements on DE residents. How silly is all of this?
 
Lies, Damn Lies and COVID-19 Statistics


Instead, Dr. Atlas asserts there should be a laser focus on who is getting infected and the death rate. He looks at each state’s data several times per day, and right now, the trend is clear. People who have confirmed cases of COVID-19 are in the younger age groups who do not suffer from severe illness. He says low-risk infections are a positive thing that will help us progress towards population immunity.

The data shows Dr. Atlas that we are doing an excellent job of protecting the vulnerable and preventing unneeded deaths. He even says the hospitalization numbers are misleading. For example, approximately 25-30% of patients are in the hospital with COVID-19, not for it. They come in for another medical reason and are tested, but have no symptoms.

...

Similarly, he notes ICU statistics are misleading. Citing Texas, which he reviewed because they are at 90% capacity, he said only 15% of those beds are occupied due to COVID-19. Regular medical care resumed, and patients not suffering from COVID-19 occupy the vast majority of the beds.

Other encouraging statistics include the length of stay and mortality. The time a COVID-19 patient spends in the hospital is half of what it was early in the pandemic. The mortality rate is 25% of what it was. He attributes this to spread to lower risk populations and improvement in treatment. Today’s news about hydroxychloroquine trials gives a reason for even more optimism. It may prevent hospitalizations if pushed to outpatient care on a broad scale.


More Here:
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politi...ies-damn-lies-and-covid-19-statistics-n603433
 
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What does that even mean..people come up on you..why would u need a mask for a person passing you
So I'm guessing you don't believe in any airborne transmission of this thing? Correct? To give a real world example, some mornings when I'm walking the dog (depending on that day's route) I go from seeing no one to being on the main drag with a bunch of people going in and out of the bakeries, coffee shops, etc. Many are wearing masks because there are a fair amount of people in the area. It's not that hard for me to slip on a mask when walking through.
 
NY/NJ placed 14 day quarantine requirements on DE residents. How silly is all of this?
Ya, DE averages 130 cases a day and a 5.3% positivity rate.

There cases have doubled over the last couple days but that looks like an over reach.
 
Lies, Damn Lies and COVID-19 Statistics


Instead, Dr. Atlas asserts there should be a laser focus on who is getting infected and the death rate. He looks at each state’s data several times per day, and right now, the trend is clear. People who have confirmed cases of COVID-19 are in the younger age groups who do not suffer from severe illness. He says low-risk infections are a positive thing that will help us progress towards population immunity.

The data shows Dr. Atlas that we are doing an excellent job of protecting the vulnerable and preventing unneeded deaths. He even says the hospitalization numbers are misleading. For example, approximately 25-30% of patients are in the hospital with COVID-19, not for it. They come in for another medical reason and are tested, but have no symptoms.

...

Similarly, he notes ICU statistics are misleading. Citing Texas, which he reviewed because they are at 90% capacity, he said only 15% of those beds are occupied due to COVID-19. Regular medical care resumed, and patients not suffering from COVID-19 occupy the vast majority of the beds.

Other encouraging statistics include the length of stay and mortality. The time a COVID-19 patient spends in the hospital is half of what it was early in the pandemic. The mortality rate is 25% of what it was. He attributes this to spread to lower risk populations and improvement in treatment. Today’s news about hydroxychloroquine trials gives a reason for even more optimism. It may prevent hospitalizations if pushed to outpatient care on a broad scale.


More Here:
https://pjmedia.com/news-and-politi...ies-damn-lies-and-covid-19-statistics-n603433
So Texas who expanded their ICU capacity because of Covid, is at 90% capacity, but only 15% of that is Covid cases? Super skeptical of that claim.

Who are these people putting off going into the ICU?
 
Ya, DE averages 130 cases a day and a 5.3% positivity rate.

There cases have doubled over the last couple days but that looks like an over reach.
Simply pay back for DE doing that earlier this year to NY and NJ visitors. Seriously? They have to play this game?
 
I assume the divergence is due to younger people getting infected.

As noted the op's data is wrong, but the general idea is correct. I also think younger people getting infected is part of the reason for this, as is better treatment, and testing.


It’s called virus mutation but many won’t even discuss it even though the data points directly to it.

Maybe, but I think the above is more likely.
 
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Simply pay back for DE doing that earlier this year to NY and NJ visitors. Seriously? They have to play this game?
Would I be shocked if Delaware was spiking in a week? No, and I guess it is good to be playing from ahead, but yeah, seems a little heavy here.
 
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