So what is the point of all this? That we shouldn't wear masks?
The fact that this continues to be a debate is effing ridiculous.
The fact that this continues to be a debate is effing ridiculous.
COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
- Thread starter Richie O
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Arizona at least seems to be well off of its high of hospitalizations, so I think the trend there is good. Positivity rates also seem to be going down there. I'm not sure I'd call that "troubling" at all.
Maybe you haven't read my testing posts or maybe I haven't done a good job on them. Huge difference between the first and second waves. Little to no testing from late Feb through mid-March and then still just moderate testing through early April meant we had tens of thousands infected in the most explosive exponential growth seen in the entire pandemic (in NYC metro, given the most infected "seeds" from Europe and the highest population/commuting density in the US, at least) before we knew what was even going on and there was barely even "distancing" yet, so our only response was a lockdown.
With much less testing per capita going on in the first wave, the positivity rates in NY/NY were hitting 40-50% for 2-3 weeks, indicating there were far more positives out there and meaning the slope of the cases per time curve was artificially shallower (making it look like the 2nd wave curve, but in reality the growth was much steeper; don't think any of the current states have been at more than 20% positive for more than a day or two). I have some older posts with links to much of this if interested.
The outbreak now is very largely driven by increased transmission brought about after reopening most states without having achieved most of the CDC targets, unlike NY/NJ/CT/PA etc, which had targets even stricter than the CDC guidance. The combination of reopening throughout May and into June and fairly low mask compliance levels was obviously going to lead to a major 2nd wave as many of us predicted, but it certainly had a higher percentage of younger people, since older people were far more likely to continue with distancing and/or masking, unlike the first wave, where nobody was distancing or masking (other than paranoid nuts like me who started that in the beginning of March).
Having far more testing in place has actually led to uncovering more young people infected and many more mild/asymptomatic cases, which is good, although most states haven't taken advantage of tracing nearly as well as they could have, allowing the outbreak to grow more quickly than it might have otherwise. I also never said it was all R's - I said it was a likely a combo of more R's than D's (the poll might not be perfect, but it's not 30 points off) and a fairly high percentage of young people too, since young people, in general, are less likely to wear masks and more likely to socialize (also in the poll).
The difference we have is I think (not know - it's a hypothesis) that second wave states that are doing worse are doing so at least in part because of R governors who encouraged openings too soon and higher percentages of R's in the state and not following masking/distancing; these combined with the "common factors" you outlined likely lead to small to modest differences, not huge ones. Can't prove it and I might be wrong (so, no, I don't have preconceived notions, but do have hypotheses), but I think the modest differences in CA vs. FL/TX case/death rates per capita indicate this could be true. Maybe somebody will do the analysis and show it's true or not, and it's not to "blame" people, but to understand what's going on and to try to convince folks not wearing masks/distancing to do so. And I'm very happy to hear the President's latest comments on the importance of masks, as I think it will really help - wish it would've been 3 months ago, but still happy to see it.
And according to family out in Phoenix a great deal is overblown ... serious yes but not like some want us to believe in the MSM.
Rough daily stats day. Arizona seems to be trending down though. I feel like they were one of the first states that started spiking, I wonder if TX, FL, CA will follow a similar path in the next week or two.
It's been widely reported Arizona is having hospitalized patients brought to New Mexico.
Well that would make sense if those patients live on the border of New Mexico... Arizona is a big state ... as I said serious situation yes... but overblown dire predictions ... it’s miles between for some towns and cities...
Agree on Arizona trending in a good direction on cases, obviously and now hospitalizations and probably deaths too. Tuesday night I said they looked like they might be starting to peak in deaths and now that looks like they are peaking, although I'd wait 3-4 more days to conclude that, since they're only about a week from their hospitalization peak and deaths are at least a week delayed from that peak, usually.
Their current 7-day moving average death peak is just about (depends where one draws the line, so there's some error in there) 40% of NJ's peak (per capita), so it's in my guesstimated 1/3-2/3 of NJ's peak (lower due to younger ages and improved treatments/medical procedures). They've been about 2 weeks ahead of FL/TX/CA, though, so they were expected to peak first and decline first. Those other states (especially FL/TX) still have some climbing to do on the death curve, unfortunately.
See, I'm not always looking for the worst, as some have said and I've always been on the very optimistic side of when we'd get improved treatments (been an especially huge fan of plasma since day one and it's working and being used a lot now, plus I think engineered antibodies in Sept will be a near cure) and a vaccine (by the end of the year) - I just hate seeing us do dumb things, though, like not doing testing/tracing well and not wearing masks.
Is this another completely non funny post? Or are you serious? Your lack of humor makes it confusing.
Below is the Worldometers detailed graphic of deaths, with today's total of 1150 being close to yesterday's and giving us our highest 3-day total since late May.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
Below that are the COVID Tracking charts of tests, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, all on 7-day moving averages. Not much new to add since last night.
https://covidtracking.com/data#chart-annotations
Below is the Worldometers detailed graphic of US deaths, with today's total of 1142 being close to yesterday's 1150 and giving us our highest 4-day total since late May. Below that are the COVID Tracking charts of US tests, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, all on 7-day moving averages. Covered AZ in detail and FL/TX/CA a bit in an earlier post. We also eclipsed our record in cases at over 78K - hard to tell if that's a trend or a blip, though...
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us
https://covidtracking.com/data#chart-annotations
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Good information- thanks RU848789.Agree on Arizona trending in a good direction on cases, obviously and now hospitalizations and probably deaths too. Tuesday night I said they looked like they might be starting to peak in deaths and now that looks like they are peaking, although I'd wait 3-4 more days to conclude that, since they're only about a week from their hospitalization peak and deaths are at least a week delayed from that peak, usually.
Their current 7-day moving average death peak is just about (depends where one draws the line, so there's some error in there) 40% of NJ's peak (per capita), so it's in my guesstimated 1/3-2/3 of NJ's peak (lower due to younger ages and improved treatments/medical procedures). They've been about 2 weeks ahead of FL/TX/CA, though, so they were expected to peak first and decline first. Those other states (especially FL/TX) still have some climbing to do on the death curve, unfortunately.
See, I'm not always looking for the worst, as some have said and I've always been on the very optimistic side of when we'd get improved treatments (been an especially huge fan of plasma since day one and it's working and being used a lot now, plus I think engineered antibodies in Sept will be a near cure) and a vaccine (by the end of the year) - I just hate seeing us do dumb things, though, like not doing testing/tracing well and not wearing masks.
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020...navirus-after-attending-parties-together.html
outbreak amongst 24 LBI life guards.
outbreak amongst 24 LBI life guards.
Except for the dead bodies,
3,142 at last count. I keep forgetting about them. How bout you, Bob?
Not to mention that there is a tail for reporting and a 7DMA of 80 dead bodies, which will not go down very quickly with 132, 988 active cases RFN.
If I had more talent mathways, I would draw that curve out and give you a number for the next three months.
worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/arizona/
To be fair my post refers to them as one of the States that’s been getting headlines for big numbers, not one of the “troubling trends” below the headlines — I was referring to Alabama, SC, and Georgia
My elderly aunt lives in Tucson. They told her if she gets COVID they will send her to San Diego, Vegas, or Albuquerque. This was yesterday
Yes I believe that has to do also with not putting the elderly into LTC facilities or Asstd. Living in order not to infect other residents. Remember the NY and NJ debacle with the vulnerable elderly population.
I don’t forget about any deaths... but death is a part of life and unfortunately we need to overcome the dire possibilities by finding the cure. Even in your post you want to attack my post because it doesn’t fit. I’m only saying what I hear from my family in Arizona , some in the danger age. Out of almost 7 million residents the problem is many are elderly .As a math aficionado then you realize there is also error involved in calculating . Your math using graphs, curves, algorithms isn’t going to stop death . So save that for those who enjoy statistical data. The fact is we know what is possible. We also know this only stops when either a vaccine or a greater power says it’s over.
Those sausage parties can get out of hand down the shore...some of our young don’t care ... they are invincible...I don’t feel sorry nor angry for getting together and wanting a release from all the crap... It’s their families they should be thinking about.
That's like asking how many troops came home from WW2 or Vietnam and ignoring the number of deaths. Completely discounting the amount of loss that people are having to deal with. Discounting what long term effects this disease may have. What a heartless, soulless response.
It doesn’t make sense to send her from Tucson to Albuquerque or to Las Vegas ... San Diego is the closer option... in the northeast we should have done a much better job of isolating and separating ill from healthy residents... How many of Arizona’s deaths ( approximately 4K ) this far are over 65 or from senior resident and LTC facilities overall . From what I just read ( current data ) it says 52 % of deaths have occurred in LTC care businesses overall ... that’s the word which gives me pause ... these are businesses and as good as some are many still fail in care giving... I speak from personal experience with my late father... there are people who monitor the residents and others who monitor the profit margins.
I wouldn't put much stock in your so-called hypothesis about the chicomvirus surge in the U.S. sunbelt from "a higher % of R's not following mask/social distancing guidelines". The "polls" today you and others have referenced are highly suspect since a recent Cato research piece basically confirmed most anecdotal evidence of R's not participating and under represented in public polls. I doubt public polling info today is even close to historical margins of error in accuracy.
The Miami mayor recently summed up his on-the-ground take on the sunbelt surges as more people being indoors in the hot summer months (A/C air) while N/E population being more outside in same, which is mostly the opposite case during winter/early spring months. And of course the young adults being the invincible young adults they think they are--and the 45+ all once thought they were (edit: I still know I am, no worries...).
A new Cato national survey finds that self‐censorship is on the rise in the United States. Nearly two-thirds—62%—of Americans say the political climate these days prevents them from saying things they believe because others might find them offensive. The share of Americans who self‐censor has risen several points since 2017 when 58% of Americans agreed with this statement.
These fears cross partisan lines. Majorities of Democrats (52%), independents (59%) and Republicans (77%) all agree they have political opinions they are afraid to share.
https://www.cato.org/publications/survey-reports/poll-62-americans-say-they-have-political-views-theyre-afraid-share
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also people will tell pollsters what they want to hear....oh yeah I wear masks all the time, that anyone would put stock in polls about mask wearing and party shows that they are making it entirely political, we get it, Numbers wants to lay blame all the while say no im not trying to, meanwhile you cant do that while excusing protesters, oh them, i have a study that says they dont spread. Coronavirus is very socially woke
A few weeks ago I had calls from a pollster on 3 straight days--blew off each one. Probably half a dozen people I know have done the same thing in the last 6-12 months. I also know everyone in my circle of friends/family/acquaintences--maybe 40%Rs/30%Ds/30%Is give or take-- are wearing masks in public when they can't social distance.
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Looks like some additional big, positive antibody news in a paper that came out yesterday (preprint, so not peer-reviewed yet, but looks solid) confirming and extending Dr. Krammer's work at Mt. Sinai, posted above. A Chinese study on 349 of the earliest patients from Wuhan shows ~6 months of generally durable antibody response in the "vast majority" of convalescent patients (who recovered from COVID infections). This is very good news for recovered patients retaining immunity for 6 months or more and for any vaccines able to raise neutralizing antibody responses (which we have seen).
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.21.20159178v1.full.pdf
Abstract: Long-term antibody responses and neutralizing activities following SARS-CoV-2 infections have not yet been elucidated. We quantified immunoglobulin M (IgM) and G (IgG) antibodies recognizing the SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike (S) or the nucleocapsid (N) protein, and neutralizing antibodies during a period of six months following COVID-19 disease onset in 349 symptomatic COVID-19 patients, which were among the first world-wide being infected. The positivity rate and magnitude of IgM-S and IgG-N responses increased rapidly. High levels of IgMS/N and IgG-S/N at 2-3 weeks after disease onset were associated with virus control and IgG-S titers correlated closely with the capacity to neutralize SARS-CoV-2. While specific IgM-S/N became undetectable 12 weeks after disease onset in most patients, IgG-S/N titers showed an intermediate contraction phase, but stabilized at relatively high levels over the six months observation period. At late time points the positivity rates for binding and neutralizing SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies was still over 70%. Taken together, our data indicate sustained humoral immunity in recovered patients who suffer from symptomatic COVID-19, suggesting prolonged immunity.
Conclusion: In conclusion, antibodies appear to have antiviral effects in the early stages of SARS-CoV-2 infection; and the most symptomatic patients with COVID-19 remain positive for IgG-S and exhibit sufficient neutralizing activity at six months after the onset of illness. These results support the notion that naturally infected patients have the ability to combat re-infection and vaccines may be able to produce sufficient protection. Please note, that analyses which terminated their observation earlier than ours and extrapolates the long-term trend based on this contraction phase without considering or determining the consolidation phase, bear the inherent risk to come to wrong over-pessimistic conclusions concerning the durability of humoral immune responses.
Anecdotes are generally useless. We blow off pollsters all the time, too. And while the Cato study is relevant, I highly doubt it means polls are going to be off by more than several %, i.e., the Pew survey showing ~40% differences between R's/D's on mask wearing might mean the difference is really 35% (or 45% - can't be sure which way the bias goes), but not 10%. Remember, during the 2016 election, most of the polls were certainly "wrong" but they were "only" off by a few to several %, which is huge in polling terms, but small compared to the differences in the Pew survey. Still doesn't "prove" my hypothesis, but the differences are real.
if the poll respondents are even being honest...let alone 75% of R's not likely being interested...
It doesn’t make sense to send from Tucson to Al
No we actually have an idea of how many died and came home from those wars. So what he asked is feasible but appears to confuse some folks in health , state and federal government. And why is that so difficult?
Most NJ cases reported since early June. Have to expect NJ is primed for a case explosion soon even with the extra measures. The strange thing is that cases are trending upwards across all counties at around the same growth rate rather than pockets of growth.
It’s overblown everywhere. Dying from this China Flu is extraordinarily rare.
As was predicted and a certain outspoken know it all here tried to deny. As usual, he was wrong again.
Where have you been? Good to see you back in the fold hopefully--there's a ton of certain media talking points being regurgitated around these supposedly CE-free threads. Need more informed and commonsense folks involved.:USA: :America: :AmericanFlag::USA: :America: :AmericanFlag::USA: :America: :AmericanFlag::USA: :America: :AmericanFlag:
Actually most of the polls were within the MOE, saying Hillary will win a state by 2 when she loses by `1 with a MOE of 3.75% is a mathematically correct poll.
LOL--that particular post was a follow-up to another poster about a related topic in a previous post discussing a Cato Institute research piece. #CatsupTime "Greg".
The reason is LA has shuttled hundreds of their patients to San Diego... It’s LA specifically which has an issue . Still see no reason how this could happen with all the precautionary measures that the leaders put into effect.
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