@e5fdny , @knightfan7 , hopefully, we are in the clear. The latest graph for 08736 zip code (Wall) has us at all rain.
OT: 12/16/20 Snowstorm Thread: First Significant Winter Storm of the Season - Major Snow/Sleet/Rain
- Thread starter RU848789
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Agreed I think its gonna be a rain fest for 2/3 of the state
If you're talking about Monday, you're likely all rain, but for the big storm, why would you think you're in the clear? I'd be surprised if you don't get at least 3-6" and more is possible. Unlikely to be all rain. The 18Z GFS just came out and gives you 15", while the 18Z NAM gives you 6" through 1 am Thursday, with 6 more hours of snow likely (the model ends at 1 am). The NWS graphic gives you 1.2" of rain followed by 6" of snow.
18z GFS woofing on 12-18 inch totals similar to Euro...its the Ukie vs the rest, the 18zNAM was warmer and not the best solution but way out of range
FYI, WW's first report shows the storm going more west and north. Most likely outcome for us is 3-6 inches.
OK. I no longer have your back. I have bac's back, and we are coming for you. [roll]If you're talking about Monday, you're likely all rain, but for the big storm, why would you think you're in the clear? I'd be surprised if you don't get at least 3-6" and more is possible. Unlikely to be all rain. The 18Z GFS just came out and gives you 15", while the 18Z NAM gives you 6" through 1 am Thursday, with 6 more hours of snow likely (the model ends at 1 am). The NWS graphic gives you 1.2" of rain followed by 6" of snow.
Just realized the forecast graph I have been looking at is for Sea Girt, and not "Allenwood," which is the closest choice from NWS. You are correct.
But @knightfan7 and @e5fdny look to be in the clear. Remember last week when there were flurries a few miles west over here in Wall, @e5fdny did not have snow. We have a beach rental in Belmar, and we will go there Wednesday.
I hate it when @RU848789 is right, but we may be in a worst case scenario 3-4 miles west of the Atlantic Ocean in Wall. See above.
In the yellow at the moment. I want snow, but I want snow in the mountain more. Wouldn't be totally upset if I see a mix here.
No, that's wrong - the NWS forecast is not going to have more than minor differences over 3-4 miles. In fact the graphic for Pt. Pleasant Beach shows 1.3" rain and 4" of snow, which is not that much different (yes 2" less snow, but it's not going to go from 6" to 0" over 4 miles). Are you looking at the right dates? The NWS point and click forecasts for any location default to the next 48 hours, which will show no snow for anyone SE of 95. To get the graphic I pasted for you, you need to click on the "hourly weather graphic" (once you've clicked on your location) and then near the top of the graphic you get, you need to click on the "48-hour period starting..." and select the time you want from the drop down, i.e., sometime Weds am to get the whole storm.
https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-74.04920&lat=40.11275#.X9ac09hKiMo
I'll be very surprised if both of you don't get at least 10" (and also some snow, lol).
Maybe I need to do an update. This is what I have for Sea Girt.
When I re-ran it fresh, it matches what you have. Foiled again!!!!
I already selected my Bust gif to post Thursday morning! Lots of good ones to choose from. 😀
Awesome weather today. Took a third long drive in a span of four days. I don’t remember December being this warm when I was young.
Anyway...
The good news for everyone is that I took out my snowblower today to check it out and it fired right up; engine ran flawlessly. That strongly counters both my lack of a vehicle for snowy conditions and my nonfunctional generator, I think.
Had the snowblower failed to start, we would’ve been looking at a solid 5 feet across all of NJ. But it did. So I’m now thinking we will only see maybe 1 foot or less.
All these weather models are interesting, but clearly the weather hinges entirely on a combination of reverse preparedness and deep irony.
Anyway...
The good news for everyone is that I took out my snowblower today to check it out and it fired right up; engine ran flawlessly. That strongly counters both my lack of a vehicle for snowy conditions and my nonfunctional generator, I think.
Had the snowblower failed to start, we would’ve been looking at a solid 5 feet across all of NJ. But it did. So I’m now thinking we will only see maybe 1 foot or less.
All these weather models are interesting, but clearly the weather hinges entirely on a combination of reverse preparedness and deep irony.
Washed my car on that warm sunday 2 weeks back. Today I did that headlight rejuvation thing, which worked great. Had to take off a layer too, working in a t-shirt.
The NWS is pretty much all-in for a major snowstorm at least from Philly to NYC and all points NW of that line. My NWS point-and-click gives me 15" of snow in the Edison area and for Montgomery it's 14" and it's 15" for the Hoboken/JC/Manhattan area. They could be wrong, but they're fairly bullish as am I. Just too much cold air in place to get rain too far inland, according to most of the mets I've been reading.
From the NWS-NYC:
Given the supply of low level cold air and unlikelihood of
warmer air intruding aloft, this event looks to be all snow for
just about the entire region, except maybe the south shore of
eastern Long Island for a time. Too early to get into the
mesoscale details here, but confidence in significant snowfall
amounts over 6 inches continues to increase, with potential
for over a foot of snow in areas that experience the best
mesoscale lift and snow growth NW of the low track.
NE winds should also be quite strong along the coast due to the
pressure gradient between the strong high to the north and the
developing low, as high as 25-35 mph with gusts up to to 45
mph, causing considerable blowing and drifting of snow and at
least near blizzard conditions.
From the NWS-Philly (their comment about "NWNJ" below includes Mercer/Somerset/Middlesex, as all of their point and clicks give all snow; need to get towards Freehold up to Keansburg and east of there to get into a fair amount of rain, followed by a lot of snow):
In terms of the sensible weather and impacts with the storm,
again, still early to be confident in the details but expect
precip to develop SW to NE around the late morning early
afternoon time frame. Most areas should at least start as snow
due to the cold airmass in place with the possible exception
being southern Delmarva east toward south coastal NJ where it
should be mostly rain. In fact a period of at least a few hours
of snow, possibly moderate to heavy at times is likely near and
especially north of the urban corridor by the latter part of
the afternoon. The challenge then becomes by around the early
evening time frame...if the low tracks farther north/west along
the coast then over over Delmarva mixed precipitation and rain
could make it into SE PA east through Ocean County...basically
through the I-95 corridor including Philly and possibly even a
bit farther north. This would limit storm total snow. A track
farther south could mean snow amounts well over 6 inches even
into places like Philadelphia. Again confidence on these details
is low but one way or another it will be quite messy. To the
north though through the northern and western Philly suburbs
through the remainder of eastern PA and NW NJ confidence is
higher in larger snow amounts. Amounts cold potentially
exceeding a foot in places. The other concern that needs to be
highlighted with this storm is winds. NE winds gusting 40 to 50+
mph look increasingly likely near the coast and this could be
enough to result in some power outages.
From the NWS-NYC:
Given the supply of low level cold air and unlikelihood of
warmer air intruding aloft, this event looks to be all snow for
just about the entire region, except maybe the south shore of
eastern Long Island for a time. Too early to get into the
mesoscale details here, but confidence in significant snowfall
amounts over 6 inches continues to increase, with potential
for over a foot of snow in areas that experience the best
mesoscale lift and snow growth NW of the low track.
NE winds should also be quite strong along the coast due to the
pressure gradient between the strong high to the north and the
developing low, as high as 25-35 mph with gusts up to to 45
mph, causing considerable blowing and drifting of snow and at
least near blizzard conditions.
From the NWS-Philly (their comment about "NWNJ" below includes Mercer/Somerset/Middlesex, as all of their point and clicks give all snow; need to get towards Freehold up to Keansburg and east of there to get into a fair amount of rain, followed by a lot of snow):
In terms of the sensible weather and impacts with the storm,
again, still early to be confident in the details but expect
precip to develop SW to NE around the late morning early
afternoon time frame. Most areas should at least start as snow
due to the cold airmass in place with the possible exception
being southern Delmarva east toward south coastal NJ where it
should be mostly rain. In fact a period of at least a few hours
of snow, possibly moderate to heavy at times is likely near and
especially north of the urban corridor by the latter part of
the afternoon. The challenge then becomes by around the early
evening time frame...if the low tracks farther north/west along
the coast then over over Delmarva mixed precipitation and rain
could make it into SE PA east through Ocean County...basically
through the I-95 corridor including Philly and possibly even a
bit farther north. This would limit storm total snow. A track
farther south could mean snow amounts well over 6 inches even
into places like Philadelphia. Again confidence on these details
is low but one way or another it will be quite messy. To the
north though through the northern and western Philly suburbs
through the remainder of eastern PA and NW NJ confidence is
higher in larger snow amounts. Amounts cold potentially
exceeding a foot in places. The other concern that needs to be
highlighted with this storm is winds. NE winds gusting 40 to 50+
mph look increasingly likely near the coast and this could be
enough to result in some power outages.
Dude, you're not even showing the snow section in what you pasted. Sea Girt is showing over 5" of snow after that 1.3" of rain. The immediate coast is where the variability is likely to be highest - you guys could see almost all rain and you could also see over a foot of snow (models show both).Maybe I need to do an update. This is what I have for Sea Girt.
When I re-ran it fresh, it matches what you have. Foiled again!!!!
There was no snow there, because the data was not updated. When I closed the graph, and did the search again, it matched the graphic you posted.
Show me the snowwww , since this is my last 6 or less months before I head to my farm in the highlands of Colombia / coffee region , throw all the snow you want at me you weather weenies 😘
Snowblower started right up, even though did not drain the gas from last winter. It's ready for lots and lots of snow.
the 0Z NAM is way different than the other models...more sleet and more snow north of 80...verbatim it isnt what those who want a big storm want to see
It's at the end of its accuracy range and is the only one showing mid-level warmth leading to sleet. Would still be the same frozen mass, but just half sleet/half snow for many along 95. If it shows this within 48 hours, I'd say it might be onto something, but we'll see.
you know if it should 18 inches plus everyone would be clinging to it. but I agree its a bit out of its range
going to see if the Ukie holds with its outlier solution tonight
The NWS-Philly issued Winter Storm Watches a few hours ago. They split them into two camps: 5" or more (since sleet/rain might intrude) for W. Monmouth, Middlesex, Mercer, and the counties in SEPA/SNJ bordering the Delaware and 12" or more (where all snow is forecast) for Somerset, Hunterdon, Upper Bucks/W. Montco and all the E-PA and NWNJ counties NW of those counties. Pretty early to issue a watch Sunday evening for an event starting Wednesday afternoon - that's pretty high confidence in having an impactful storm.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter storm watch
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter storm watch
What is this double talk? Clearly you've never read my law blog
and model mayhem starts...GFS is not line with the RGEM at all....its scaring all those northern NJ and southern NY peeps because it really cuts their totals as its more suppressed leaving the heaviest amounts around a foot in central jersey to philly
I forgot to run my snowblower dry last winter and now it will not even start. It is only 2 years old. But!!!!!! Against my wife's wishes, I kept our original snowblower from 1995. It has not been run in 3 years and has 3 yr old gas in it....started right up (yeah it blew quite a cloud of smoke for the first minute), so now tomorrow I will be draining and cleaning the carburetor on our new snowblower.
I ll never see Claire again if we get 30 inches. I think the deli will go out of business.
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