OT: 12/16/20 Snowstorm Thread: First Significant Winter Storm of the Season - Major Snow/Sleet/Rain
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Is that like the alligator roll that Maryland player did on Vedral, but on the nuts? Does it hurt?
Thanks Numbers, really appreciate these threads. I am a snow weenie so a nice snowfall would be fun since I'm working from home and my 2 yr old daughter would love it I think. When are the next model runs?
I agree . It’s a good premium site level information provided here .
bac posting some wishcasting!this is a good first call for now and can be adjusted as the mesoscale models come into range
dude its freaking Lee Goldberg meteorologist on Channel 7..you just embarrassed yourself
its one of many different forecasts that will be out until the final model runs in the next 36 hours. Its a pretty good way to start until we see what the NAM does
its one of many different forecasts that will be out until the final model runs in the next 36 hours. Its a pretty good way to start until we see what the NAM does
12z Euro is in and it has a slight shift south with 12-18 inches of snow over the following areas: North-Central MD, most of central and eastern PA, CNJ & NNJ, all of Connecticut, NYC, Long Island, Rhode Island, southeast Mass and Westchester, NY region. Southern NJ is mostly rain. It's currently the most aggressive of all models with the expansive snow shield.
12z Euro is in and it has a slight shift south with 12-18 inches of snow over the following areas: North-Central MD, most of central and eastern PA, CNJ & NNJ, all of Connecticut, NYC, Long Island, Rhode Island, southeast Mass and Westchester, NY region. Southern NJ is mostly rain. It's currently the most aggressive of all models with the expansive snow shield.
From that it looks like at least 50% of "Southern NJ" is snow. Looks like Cape May and Atlantic and southern Ocean County and extreme SE Burlington rain, with most of Camden, Gloucester, Burlington, Salem and Cumberland getting some sort of snow.
Unless I am reading the map wrong.
Agreed, good call - always liked Lee Goldberg. Leaves room to go up or down if it goes either way. Pretty similar to what I was saying (roughly 8-12" for the 95 corridor).this is a good first call for now and can be adjusted as the mesoscale models come into range
Actually both the GFS is more expansive with snowfall amounts SE of 95 and the CMC is about the same - look at my post above with all 4 global models.12z Euro is in and it has a slight shift south with 12-18 inches of snow over the following areas: North-Central MD, most of central and eastern PA, CNJ & NNJ, all of Connecticut, NYC, Long Island, Rhode Island, southeast Mass and Westchester, NY region. Southern NJ is mostly rain. It's currently the most aggressive of all models with the expansive snow shield.
We all know the best way to forecast how bad the storm is going to is how far Lonnie Quinn has his sleeves rolled up.
Updated NWS-Philly snowfall map. Still a sharp cutoff from 95 towards the coast, but starting to look like Trenton to NB to SI are in for at least a foot and up to 18".
Edit - and NWS-NYC watches up for all of NENJ/NYC/LI/SECT/LHV for the potential of 12-17" of snow...
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter storm watch
Edit - and NWS-NYC watches up for all of NENJ/NYC/LI/SECT/LHV for the potential of 12-17" of snow...
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter storm watch
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NAM starts to come aboard...still a funky warm nose in the Philly Trenton area so that will have to be ironed out
Just got the snowblower ready and it’s positioned right in front of the shed. So you can all thank me when this busts (haven’t read the entire thread but I’m certain that lame joke has been used at least a dozen times by now).
Shouldn't be that heavy at 3 pm yet and it might be rain or a mix at that point, so decent chance of getting out; flights after 5-6 pm from Philly/NYC region (and especially after 8 pm) will likely see a lot of cancellations.
DT/WxRisk has been on this since last weekend - he's very good in the 7-10 day range and he's been calling for a big I-95 snowstorm since I started posting on this on Friday morning (part of why I started the thread, actually). Here's a wider view of the map.
NAM starts to come aboard...still a funky warm nose in the Philly Trenton area so that will have to be ironed out
Very doubtful that warm nose verifies - or at least not that far NW of 95. Also, a big part of why eastern Monmouth into Ocean has a lot more snow than before is the extended backend snowfall from the deformation zone as it pivots, which likely won't hit further west - we often see the coast getting a bunch of backend snows on the big storms.
GFS continues to bullseye central jersey keeping the storm the furthest south and really slicing totals in NW Jersey and southern ny
Claire; Jen and the 2 Karen(s) emphasized the masks with the thick sausage and 12" slogan were selling the best and they're almost out of stock.
I think I saw Amy freeze at the Hillsborough Deli. She’s good friends with Karen
Updated NWS-Philly snowfall map. Still a sharp cutoff from 95 towards the coast, but starting to look like Trenton to NB to SI are in for at least a foot and up to 18".
Edit - and NWS-NYC watches up for all of NENJ/NYC/LI/SECT/LHV for the potential of 12-17" of snow...
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter storm watch
NWS-NYC updated their map - 12-16" everywhere, except down to 6-8" for the far east end of LI, but I guarantee you they get more than that - they always cash in at the end of these storms.
Important PSA:
Listen up, New Jersey: Don’t trust all those wild snowfall predictions flooding social media
Listen up, New Jersey: Don’t trust all those wild snowfall predictions flooding social media
False or misleading information about snowstorms often thrives on social media. That's why weather experts say you should be careful if you see snow forecast maps from unreliable sources.www.nj.com
It's pretty funny that N.com is posting this, because it is a leader in hyping snow storms. If the northwet corner of the state gets snow, nj.com acts as though all of NJ is going to get socked.
Forecast from TWC, which has been pretty good the past few years with snowfall forecasts - they were almost the only ones who called the big bust for Jan-2015.
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