OT: 12/16/20 Snowstorm Thread: First Significant Winter Storm of the Season - Major Snow/Sleet/Rain

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

Just asked google smart speaker how much snow there will be tomorrow (east brunswick area) and she said 2.7 inches.... AHA... WEDNESDAY there will be 2.7 she says.. but I just now asked directly about Thursday and she added 11+ inches.

These devices still have a way to go.

 

[Big boy stan]

Imagine an adult wanting a lot of snow. I mean, you can. I'll just never understand it. Kind of like someone voluntarily spending 4 years in Syracuse or State College.

Imagine an adult not wanting lots of snow. I mean you can. I'll just never understand it. Kind of like someone voluntarily spending 4 years at UCF or NC. 😊

Joking aside, I would love a 12" storm tomorrow. Not looking for anything that will bring the roof down but from my WFH "corner" office, let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.

 

[IL Lusciato]

Imagine an adult not wanting lots of snow. I mean you can. I'll just never understand it. Kind of like someone voluntarily spending 4 years at UCF or NC. 😊

Joking aside, I would love a 12" storm tomorrow. Not looking for anything that will bring the roof down but from my WFH "corner" office, let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.

It's great. Slows everything down. Has a calming effect. Right before Christmas it's very festive and has a nice mood effect for me. I don't mind shoveling although it's not that hard for me bc I live in a high rise and only have to get my car out of the parking spot. Don't mind days off of work either, although that won't happen this year with zoom. Still, not sure why people wouldn't want some snow once in a while.

 

[WhiteBus]

Imagine an adult not wanting lots of snow. I mean you can. I'll just never understand it. Kind of like someone voluntarily spending 4 years at UCF or NC. 😊

Joking aside, I would love a 12" storm tomorrow. Not looking for anything that will bring the roof down but from my WFH "corner" office, let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.

Even if you work from home, you still have to shovel!

 

[RU#1fan]

Imagine an adult not wanting lots of snow. I mean you can. I'll just never understand it. Kind of like someone voluntarily spending 4 years at UCF or NC. 😊

Joking aside, I would love a 12" storm tomorrow. Not looking for anything that will bring the roof down but from my WFH "corner" office, let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.

12” inch snowstorm is ok...brings back childhood memories.
Getting upwards of 18-20 inches would be a pain. (On my back that is ....having to shovel twice).

 

[ruready4somefootball]

 

[DJ Spanky]

Even if you work from home, you still have to shovel!

Shovel? I don't have to shovel. That's what I've got 2 HS boys for!

 

[T2Kplus20]

I also think Mt Holly is too bullish for Somerset County having them in the 18-24 range. As my first call given overnight models i like a 8-14 inch call from Trenton to Somerville. I think we could see some lollipops of 12-16 in Somerset. 10-16 probably covers Hunterdon/Morris. Middlesex and Union I think 8-14 as well with some isolated higher amounts. As we get to Monmouth things get dicey with big cut off in amounts. We will go with 4-8 but some areas could go higher. Ocean County looks to be on the edge and might see 1-2 inches of slush. Philly and Burlington perhaps 6-10 but further in south jersey maybe 3-6 if that.

NW Nj could see the highest amounts of 12 -18 with lollipops of 20 inches. I see Nyc in the 8-12 range but that could be shaved

Things can be adjusted based on todays runs. Im not a fan of going with the heavier amounts unless there is more certainty. I do understand why Mt Holly is following their oath.

WeatherWorks for our area (sent our at 6:50am this morning):

WEATHER ALERT
Nor'easter to Impact area late on Wednesday ... We start off today quiet with high clouds gradually thickening into the afternoon. Tonight, temperatures do fall below freezing, setting up a cold start for Wednesday. Its a dry start, but light snow will start moving into the area by 1-4 PM. Because of how cold it starts, the snow may be able to cover over not long after it begins. The steadiest snow will come just after sunset, with 1-2"/hr rates possible. Along with the rates, winds will be gustung upwards of 40mph at times, which can down some tree branches or knock our power in spots. The main issue with this storm is that as the low starts moving up, warmer air aloft will help to introduce more mixing (sleet). This is the main reason we have the totals not on the higher end of our snowfall boxes. The snow going over to more sleet will allow for a more heavy/compacted accumulation. In all, 4-8" is our preliminary number, but again can go up if less sleet mixing occurs. Intensities will be lightening up after midnight, and even some "snizzle" can mix in as well. With temperatures still in the upper 20s, this could lead to some patchy ice before the snow begins to taper through Thursday morning.

OVERVIEW​
Start Time​	End Time​	Total​	Snow/Sleet Confidence​
Wednesday 1:00 PM - 4:00 PM​	Thursday 7:00 AM - 10:00 AM​	4.0 - 8.0" Snow/Sleet Accumulation ceiling based on duration of sleet during storm.​	2.0 - 4.0"​ 20%​ 4.0 - 8.0"​ 40%​ 8.0 - 12.0"​ 30%​ 12.0 - 14.0"​ 10%​

PAVEMENT DETAILS​	Accumulation​	3.0" - 6.0" Snow/Sleet	First Inch​	Wed 2:00 PM - 5:00 PM
Comments​	Initial cold air will allow for snow to stick not long after it begins.

 

[anon_ivydyf0amkzay]

Shovel? I don't have to shovel. That's what I've got 2 HS boys for!

Well done! I always marveled at my neighbors in NY...with two teen agers and the two parents would be the ones shoveling. the boy would sometimes help...their girl was less than useless...too busy taking selfies and doing whatever it is teen aged girls “do”

 

[CodyRU]

What time are we looking at starting just outside of Philly in camden county?

I won't bother asking about totals, "consensus" seems to be anywhere from 1-24 inches. Typical for our area

 

[DJ Spanky]

I won't bother asking about totals, "consensus" seems to be anywhere from 1-24 inches. Typical for our area

Well the accurate prediction is: "We're gonna get some snow!"

 

[mikemarc1]

So much for model consensus. Latest NAM run says only about 3-6 inches in many areas.

Likely an outlier, but crazy to me how these models can be in such disagreement <36 hours before an event,

 

[Postman_1]

So much for model consensus. Latest NAM run says only about 3-6 inches in many areas.

Likely an outlier, but crazy to me how these models can be in such disagreement <36 hours before an event,

Wow so much for this storm. BUST

 

[retired711]

So much for model consensus. Latest NAM run says only about 3-6 inches in many areas.

Likely an outlier, but crazy to me how these models can be in such disagreement <36 hours before an event,

Remember that an inch of rain equivalent produces about twelve inches of snow, and that half an inch produces six inches of snow. That means that the difference between six and twelve inches is just a matter of a small difference in precipitation amounts. After all, none of us expects the weather predictors to tell us exactly how much rain we'll get in a summer storm. Keep in mind also that we are near enough to the coast that it is hard to predict how much intrusion of warm air there will be. That's why the weather people find it hard to figure out what's going to fall from the sky.

 

[rcube1994]

Imagine an adult not wanting lots of snow. I mean you can. I'll just never understand it. Kind of like someone voluntarily spending 4 years at UCF or NC. 😊

Joking aside, I would love a 12" storm tomorrow. Not looking for anything that will bring the roof down but from my WFH "corner" office, let it snow, let it snow, let it snow.

I don't mind a good snow storm but hate when it lingers. Snow, melt, gone in 2 days is ideal. I remember a few years ago my christmas decorations were out there until february since there was a coating of snow/ice that wouldn't go away.

 

[RUhasarrived]

My 2nd least favorite weather person (after Sam Champion)...

Speaking of weather persons,Frank Field is still alive in Boca at 97.Before him,the NY stations just used weather girls and other personalities,Tex Antoine,the most notable.The storm totals seem to have a shot at the 12-11- 1960 totals.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Likely an outlier, but crazy to me how these models can be in such disagreement <36 hours before an event,

That really calls for a Steel Cage Death Match!

 

[rcube1994]

Wow so much for this storm. BUST

My favorite is when they whiff on the forecast, they start talking about compaction. Something like, well 10 inches of snow came down, but there's only 3 on the ground because of compaction. I don't care how much falls, what is on the ground that needs to be shoveled?

 

[T2Kplus20]

My favorite is when they whiff on the forecast, they start talking about compaction. Something like, well 10 inches of snow came down, but there's only 3 on the ground because of compaction. I don't care how much falls, what is on the ground that needs to be shoveled?

The good ole "compaction" excuse. LOL!

 

[RU848789]

So much for model consensus. Latest NAM run says only about 3-6 inches in many areas.

Likely an outlier, but crazy to me how these models can be in such disagreement <36 hours before an event,

The NAM is both much drier (only about 1" total precip, which is ~10" if all snow) and has significant % of that precip falling as sleet, due to the upper level low going further NW than anyone expected, given the strong, cold high in place, resulting in much of the areas showing 12-18" of snow by the NWS only getting 4-8" of snow and an inch or so of sleet (equiv to 3" of snow roughly). As I said this morning, I did think Mt. Holly was too bullish on total snowfall and NWS-NYC was likely a better call with 8-14" of snow for NYC/95 corridor.

Whether this is an outlier or the way the other models will go is an unknown right now, but that scream you heard was mass weenie suicide on the weather boards. Need to see if this is "real" or not vs. the other models, i.e., whether there's some heretofore unseen parameter leading to all models trending this way or if it's just some flaw in the data input or model physics with the NAM. We'll know in a couple of hours. Just like one shouldn't overreact to a huge jump up in snowfall for one model, one shouldn't overreact to one model slashing snowfall. Also, at this point, the NAM is often pretty good, so even if it's an outlier it can't be discounted.

 

[bac2therac]

What time are we looking at starting just outside of Philly in camden county?

I won't bother asking about totals, "consensus" seems to be anywhere from 1-24 inches. Typical for our area

late afternoon sometime

 

[bac2therac]

the NAM is ugly for snow lover. Its funny because its usually the model that NAMs everyone and gives everyone the tingles

 

[anon_ivydyf0amkzay]

the NAM is ugly for snow lover. Its funny because its usually the model that NAMs everyone and gives everyone the tingles

The tingles. That’s funny because it’s true!

 

[T2Kplus20]

the NAM is ugly for snow lover. Its funny because its usually the model that NAMs everyone and gives everyone the tingles

 

[bac2therac]

The NAM is both much drier (only about 1" total precip, which is ~10" if all snow) and has significant % of that precip falling as sleet, due to the upper level low going further NW than anyone expected, given the strong, cold high in place, resulting in much of the areas showing 12-18" of snow by the NWS only getting 4-8" of snow and an inch or so of sleet (equiv to 3" of snow roughly). As I said this morning, I did think Mt. Holly was too bullish on total snowfall and NWS-NYC was likely a better call with 8-14" of snow for NYC/95 corridor.

Whether this is an outlier or the way the other models will go is an unknown right now, but that scream you heard was mass weenie suicide on the weather boards. Need to see if this is "real" or not vs. the other models, i.e., whether there's some heretofore unseen parameter leading to all models trending this way or if it's just some flaw in the data input or model physics with the NAM. We'll know in a couple of hours. Just like one shouldn't overreact to a huge jump up in snowfall for one model, one shouldn't overreact to one model slashing snowfall. Also, at this point, the NAM is often pretty good, so even if it's an outlier it can't be discounted.

yeah cannot just jump on the NAM until we see what is going on with the rest of the model suite

i fully agree with you about Mt Holly. I know there were a few models spitting out ridiculous totals but by and large the majority were still in the 12-18 tops. It would have been more appropriate to start with those at the high end and split up 8-12, 12-16, 14-18....forecasting 18-24 for somerset county sort of hits their credibility especially if something like the NAM verifies. I realize that spot they are in that they need to warn but there is definitely a way to do it and a way not to

 

[bac2therac]

3k NAM..oh noes

 

[bac2therac]

the concern is palpable on the 33andrain forum

 

[CERU00]

3k NAM..oh noes

This outcome wouldn't surprise me in the least... Down here in northern Delaware we haven't seen any appreciable snow in years....sigh.

 

[RU848789]

yeah cannot just jump on the NAM until we see what is going on with the rest of the model suite

i fully agree with you about Mt Holly. I know there were a few models spitting out ridiculous totals but by and large the majority were still in the 12-18 tops. It would have been more appropriate to start with those at the high end and split up 8-12, 12-16, 14-18....forecasting 18-24 for somerset county sort of hits their credibility especially if something like the NAM verifies. I realize that spot they are in that they need to warn but there is definitely a way to do it and a way not to

It's why I was talking more like 8-12" for the 95 corridor with the potential for more, but to start off with 12-18" seemed just too aggressive. Agree completely that starting off with 8-12" and adjusting upwards if there were no hiccups in the models today would've been a better choice. 8-12" with the potential for more is certainly a pretty strong warning to people. The sleet I was worried about - I did not expect the NAM to cut precip in half, roughly.

 

[mikemarc1]

Dry slot gonna play a major issue it seems.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Snowblower handles 9'' tops. Was thinking this was a 2 plow event with plow #1 being around midnight.....

My question...as we approach the start of the storm will we have stronger confidence in what the actual amount will be?

 

[bac2therac]

RGEM coming in with with big dry slot....

Snowblower handles 9'' tops. Was thinking this was a 2 plow event with plow #1 being around midnight.....

My question...as we approach the start of the storm will we have stronger confidence in what the actual amount will be?

yes....today and tonights run will give us a better picture on whether the NAM is just a psycho drug addicted model or is it on the cover of Vogue

 

[MGSA99]

This outcome wouldn't surprise me in the least... Down here in northern Delaware we haven't seen any appreciable snow in years....sigh.

Weenies committing hari kari yet?

 

[bac2therac]

RGEM was further northwest and presents major dry slotting issues...verbatim the snowmap isnt bad but consider this model went from 40 inches to 30 to 12 to 7 in the span of 36 hours

 

[T2Kplus20]

It's why I was talking more like 8-12" for the 95 corridor with the potential for more, but to start off with 12-18" seemed just too aggressive. Agree completely that starting off with 8-12" and adjusting upwards if there were no hiccups in the models today would've been a better choice. 8-12" with the potential for more is certainly a pretty strong warning to people. The sleet I was worried about - I did not expect the NAM to cut precip in half, roughly.

FYI - you already called at least 10 inches in Bac's backyard (i.e., southern Somerset Co). You are on the record. :)

 

[T2Kplus20]

RGEM coming in with with big dry slot....



yes....today and tonights run will give us a better picture on whether the NAM is just a psycho drug addicted model or is it on the cover of Vogue

FYI - WW still not believing the hype, only 4-8 inches in our area.

 

[mikemarc1]

One thing has been common so often every winter. If you want snow..you DONT want to be the bullseye 5-7 days out

 

[T2Kplus20]

One thing has been common so often every winter. If you want snow..you DONT want to be the bullseye 5-7 days out

+1
Forecasts 5 days out rarely hit.

 

[mikemarc1]

GFS still shows a big hit for most of Northern, but the trend to a lesser storm is evident

 

[bac2therac]

Verbatim the 12z GFS is still giving most of the area a foot or possibly more of snow, in reality its starting to jog to the NW compared to its previous runs. Signs to come? Those GFS snow maps are unlikely to verify at this time