Tropicana was supposed to be either a shelter or housing for clean up crews. Or both maybe?
Being critiqued now as the skin on that roof is a fiberglass fabric of some sort.
OT: 2024 Atlantic Tropical Forecasts: CSU/NHC/Others Predicting Extremely Active Season; Hurricane Milton Aims at Central FL Gulf Coast as a Cat 3/4
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Being critiqued now as the skin on that roof is a fiberglass fabric of some sort.
Update on the tornado from yesterday in Fort Pierce: it has been confirmed that 4 people died in the Spanish Lakes Country Club Village development in the Lakeland Park area of northern Ft. Pierce (only a mile or so from Vero Beach, so this kind of scared my dad and my brother and my sister, who all live in Vero in separate locations) from that EF3 (estimated) tornado that ripped through the area. Tornadoes are common with hurricanes, often well away from the storm in outer bands, as these were, but strong tornadoes are very unusual (EF3 is much stronger than the EF1's that are typical) and the number of tornadoes was also unusual, with 125 tornado warnings issued and 38 actual tornadoes touching down.
https://www.wpbf.com/.../officials-multiple.../62561027
https://www.wpbf.com/.../officials-multiple.../62561027
Our first report on damage is 50,000+ homes needing roof repair, 20,000+ homes needing replacement roof.
Report out of siesta Key - storm surge less than Helene.
Gulf did not breach the inter coastal
Gulf did not breach the inter coastal
Storm track being south definitely helped.
NE quadrant of a storm tracking east is not going to produce a surge.
Wonder what the levels were in Fort Myers?
Helene had more repairs, less replacement. But Helene also went across a larger area of the country. I actually thought numbers would be higher. They may still go up as these numbers are only hours after the storm passed. With this info we are already beginning to move inventory.
Sounds like much less damage than expected. Not fun, but many feared it would be worse.
The track forecast for Milton was impressive, as it was only off by 12 miles at landfall vs. the first advisory and over the 5 days Milton was being tracked the landfall forecast was always within a 40-mile wide spread from St. Pete to about Siesta Key. And the intensity forecast was quite good, as even the 2nd advisory had Milton being a major hurricane in ~2 days and then at landfall with ranges of 115-135 mph at landfall and the final number was 120 mph. The forecast missed Milton intensifying to a Cat 5, but that's a minor miss, as it generally had Milton reaching Cat 4 over the GOM, but a Cat 3 at landfall and the landfall forecast being correct is far more important.
Also, the forecast captured the impact of the approaching front from the NW well a few days in advance, predicting it would weaken the storm from Cat 5 to Cat 3 by landfall, which it did, and predicting a few days in advance that the storm would have the unusual characteristic of heavier rainfall and winds north of the storm's track, due to interactions with the front enhancing convection/rainfall/winds.
And I would not call the forecast a "miss" on the storm surge for Tampa Bay, as the track was too close of a call to back off on those 9-13' surge forecasts until the last minute - even 6 hours before landfall, Milton started a move north, which if it had been sustained for 2 more hours, would have likely led to a Tampa Bay landfall instead of a Siesta Key landfall, about 20 miles south of Tampa Bay: forecast track errors 6-12 hours out are still 15-20 miles. It is a shame, however, that the uncertainty on track/surge led to evacuating tens of thousands from the coast to shelters inland that ended up with major flooding due to the rains.
The biggest "surprise" to some extent was the unprecedented number of tornado warnings and actual tornadoes - the forecast highlighted a significant tornado risk south of the track, which is typical with landfalling hurricanes, but I don't think anyone thought we'd have that many.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/MILTON.shtml?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/MILTON_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind
Also, the forecast captured the impact of the approaching front from the NW well a few days in advance, predicting it would weaken the storm from Cat 5 to Cat 3 by landfall, which it did, and predicting a few days in advance that the storm would have the unusual characteristic of heavier rainfall and winds north of the storm's track, due to interactions with the front enhancing convection/rainfall/winds.
And I would not call the forecast a "miss" on the storm surge for Tampa Bay, as the track was too close of a call to back off on those 9-13' surge forecasts until the last minute - even 6 hours before landfall, Milton started a move north, which if it had been sustained for 2 more hours, would have likely led to a Tampa Bay landfall instead of a Siesta Key landfall, about 20 miles south of Tampa Bay: forecast track errors 6-12 hours out are still 15-20 miles. It is a shame, however, that the uncertainty on track/surge led to evacuating tens of thousands from the coast to shelters inland that ended up with major flooding due to the rains.
The biggest "surprise" to some extent was the unprecedented number of tornado warnings and actual tornadoes - the forecast highlighted a significant tornado risk south of the track, which is typical with landfalling hurricanes, but I don't think anyone thought we'd have that many.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/MILTON.shtml?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/MILTON_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line_and_wind
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