The forecasts from both Colorado State University (CSU, where Dr. Gray pioneered seasonal predictions, which are much more accurate than random guessing) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) have been for a very busy season since early spring and now that the tropical season has officially started, the latest updates (6/5 from NHC and 6/11 from CSU) from the two major sources continue to predict an extremely active tropical season for the Atlantic Basin. Also, note that the 3rd link, below, has a summary of predictions from about 20 different sources, with all of them predicting a busy season.
CSU's prediction is for 23 named storms (vs. the 30-year average of 14.4), 11 hurricanes (7.2 avg) and 5 major hurricanes (3.2 avg), while NOAA's forecast is very similar to CSU's, with predictions of 17-25 (mean of 21) named storms, of which 8-13 (mean of 10.5) are expected to become hurricanes, including 4-7 (mean of 5.5) major hurricanes; see the graphics and links below. In comparison, last year we had a fairly active tropical season with regard to named storms with 20 named storms (vs. the 1981-2020 long-term average of 14.4), but the season was right on average for hurricanes, with 7 hurricanes (vs. an avg of 7) and 3 major hurricanes (vs. an avg of 3), compared to preseason forecasts for average activity,
However, note that even in a very busy year, what's most important, usually, is landfalling hurricanes, especially major ones (or ones with extraordinary rainfall), which is why last year's very active season wasn't particularly impactful, as only Idalia made US landfall as a major hurricane (and fortunately in the sparsely populated Big Bend area of Florida); similarly, in a below normal or normal year, all it takes is one monster, catastrophic landfalling storm, like Ian a couple of years ago, to make a season impactful.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-06.pdf
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season
https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.org/forecast/seasonal-predictions
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...mal-atlantic-basin-heating-up-8-21-23.261686/
Both CSU and NHC use much of the same combination of analog-based forecasts (looking back at key tropical indicators, like El Nino and tropical Atlantic sea surface temps (SSTs) for past seasons with similar indicators) and forward-looking dynamical/statistical global weather models and both cite the ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation indicator) state with its developing La Nina conditions (which usually means more tropical activity, due to lowered wind shear over the Atlantic Basin) and the current warmer-than-normal subtropical Atlantic SSTs (which also usually means more tropical activity and the potential for more powerful storms, as hurricanes use warmer waters as "fuel" for intensification) as keys to their forecasts.
We'll see soon, but keep in mind that the CSU group, in particular, has been far more accurate (near 70%) with their above normal, normal, below normal predictions than simple climatological guessing would be (1 in 3, on average, if guessing). Unfortunately, without @RU4Real, I'm guessing we won't have a prediction contest. Let's see how it all goes, but the predictions are a bit disconcerting, especially for coastal communities in the Gulf of Mexico, the US (and Canada) East Coast, and the Caribbean.
CSU's prediction is for 23 named storms (vs. the 30-year average of 14.4), 11 hurricanes (7.2 avg) and 5 major hurricanes (3.2 avg), while NOAA's forecast is very similar to CSU's, with predictions of 17-25 (mean of 21) named storms, of which 8-13 (mean of 10.5) are expected to become hurricanes, including 4-7 (mean of 5.5) major hurricanes; see the graphics and links below. In comparison, last year we had a fairly active tropical season with regard to named storms with 20 named storms (vs. the 1981-2020 long-term average of 14.4), but the season was right on average for hurricanes, with 7 hurricanes (vs. an avg of 7) and 3 major hurricanes (vs. an avg of 3), compared to preseason forecasts for average activity,
However, note that even in a very busy year, what's most important, usually, is landfalling hurricanes, especially major ones (or ones with extraordinary rainfall), which is why last year's very active season wasn't particularly impactful, as only Idalia made US landfall as a major hurricane (and fortunately in the sparsely populated Big Bend area of Florida); similarly, in a below normal or normal year, all it takes is one monster, catastrophic landfalling storm, like Ian a couple of years ago, to make a season impactful.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2024-06.pdf
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season
https://seasonalhurricanepredictions.org/forecast/seasonal-predictions
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...mal-atlantic-basin-heating-up-8-21-23.261686/
Both CSU and NHC use much of the same combination of analog-based forecasts (looking back at key tropical indicators, like El Nino and tropical Atlantic sea surface temps (SSTs) for past seasons with similar indicators) and forward-looking dynamical/statistical global weather models and both cite the ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation indicator) state with its developing La Nina conditions (which usually means more tropical activity, due to lowered wind shear over the Atlantic Basin) and the current warmer-than-normal subtropical Atlantic SSTs (which also usually means more tropical activity and the potential for more powerful storms, as hurricanes use warmer waters as "fuel" for intensification) as keys to their forecasts.
We'll see soon, but keep in mind that the CSU group, in particular, has been far more accurate (near 70%) with their above normal, normal, below normal predictions than simple climatological guessing would be (1 in 3, on average, if guessing). Unfortunately, without @RU4Real, I'm guessing we won't have a prediction contest. Let's see how it all goes, but the predictions are a bit disconcerting, especially for coastal communities in the Gulf of Mexico, the US (and Canada) East Coast, and the Caribbean.
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