OT: 2024 Atlantic Tropical Forecasts: CSU/NHC Say Very Active Season; Rafael to Weaken to a TS before coming close to the Northern GOM
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Has strengthened to a tropical cyclone. 60-70% chance it strengthens to a tropical storm. Next step would be hurricane.
System now an official "Invest - 97L" and the NHC did up the probability of TS formation from 60% to 70% within the next 7 days. Also, it's not quite yet a "cyclone" as there is no defined circulation center yet.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 1 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Southwestern Atlantic and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL97):
A well-defined tropical wave is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico,
the Southeastern Bahamas, and the adjacent waters of the
southwestern Atlantic and northeastern Caribbean Sea. Development of
this system should be slow to occur during the next day or so while
it moves west-northwestward over portions of the Greater Antilles.
However, environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive
for development after the wave passes the Greater Antilles, and a
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next
week over the eastern Gulf of Mexico near the Florida Peninsula.
Interests across the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Florida
should continue to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
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And we now have a "Potential Tropical Cyclone" with more organized convection and a low pressure center and the system is expected to be a tropical depression by tomorrow and a named tropical storm (Debby) by late Sat/early Sun as the storm moves off of Cuba and across the Florida Straits towards the FL Gulf coast. After that the expected TS will curve N then NE and likely make landfall somewhere between the FL panhandle and the coast north of Tampa, probably as a strong TS with 50-70 mph winds.
Given that the storm is not expected to become a hurricane, the biggest risk with future Debby is torrential rainfall, as a widespread 4-8" are predicted for much of FL and into the SE US - with some locations getting up to 12", so flooding is a significant risk.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/174148.shtml?3-daynl
Given that the storm is not expected to become a hurricane, the biggest risk with future Debby is torrential rainfall, as a widespread 4-8" are predicted for much of FL and into the SE US - with some locations getting up to 12", so flooding is a significant risk.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/174148.shtml?3-daynl
Given the model consensus (globals and hurricane models), it that's correct, it would be quite a coup. Right now it's a fairly big outlier.
Given the model consensus (globals and hurricane models), it that's correct, it would be quite a coup. Right now it's a fairly big outlier.
We now have it turning into northwest Florida with path going towards Georgia. One of the forecast models still has it going into Alabama.
Had a nice fun drive back from Florida yesterday, hitting almost no major traffic, but encountering some big t-storms in NC; luckily I played my round of disc golf in SC before the rains hit. So, I missed the storm becoming a tropical depression late Friday night and then becoming a tropical storm yesterday at 5 pm and unfortunately, the forecast for Debby has continued to worsen.
Debby is now expected to become a hurricane as it travels N, then NE offshore of the Florida Gulf Coast today, before making landfall as a Cat 1 hurricane (85-90 mph winds at landfall currently forecasted) around noon on Monday, likely somewhere in the Big Bend area, which is where last year's Hurricane Idalia made landfall as a Cat 4 storm. After that the storm will slow down and meander around the SC/GA coasts through at least Thursday - whether or not the storm (or its remnants) will come close to our area and impact us with heavy rains is an open question, but some models show several inches of rain from Debby next weekend. Below is a summary of likely impacts, key NHC graphics and the usual links.
INIT 04/0900Z 25.5N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 27.2N 84.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 28.9N 84.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 30.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0600Z 30.9N 83.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/1800Z 31.6N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/0600Z 31.7N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/0600Z 32.4N 80.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 09/0600Z 34.3N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60966-tropical-storm-debby-60-mph1001-mb/page/15/
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...rricane-tropical-storm-florida-debby-forecast
Debby is now expected to become a hurricane as it travels N, then NE offshore of the Florida Gulf Coast today, before making landfall as a Cat 1 hurricane (85-90 mph winds at landfall currently forecasted) around noon on Monday, likely somewhere in the Big Bend area, which is where last year's Hurricane Idalia made landfall as a Cat 4 storm. After that the storm will slow down and meander around the SC/GA coasts through at least Thursday - whether or not the storm (or its remnants) will come close to our area and impact us with heavy rains is an open question, but some models show several inches of rain from Debby next weekend. Below is a summary of likely impacts, key NHC graphics and the usual links.
- Wind damage near landfall will likely be substantial to some structures and will also bring trees and power lines down leading to widespread power outages, exacerbated by isolated tornadoes, especially along and to the right of the storm's track
- There will be significant storm surge of 6-10' along and right of the track as the storm makes landfall in FL (Idalia had a storm surge of 12-16', which was catastrophic but fortunately focused in a very sparsely populated area). 2-4/3-6' storm surge is likely elsewhere along the FL coast and even 2-4' of storm surge is likely for GA/SC given the onshore flow for a few days.
- However, the biggest risk from Debby is flooding rainfall, especially in much of Florida and GA/SC as Debby slows to a crawl in the vicinity of NE FL/coastal GA/SC. Widespread rainfall amounts of 4-10" are expected throughout the region with 10-16" amounts likely in parts of northern FL and 12-24" amounts possible along coastal SC/GA if the storm stalls as predicted bringing days of heavy rain. Anywhere that sees 8" or more is likely to experience significant to catastrophic urban and river flooding.
- The potential for 12-24" for the coasts of GA/SC (and somewhat inland too), combined with 2-4' of storm surge along coastal GA/SC will almost certainly bring catastrophic flooding levels to those areas in particular and I would expect to see evacuations issued for these areas.
INIT 04/0900Z 25.5N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 27.2N 84.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 28.9N 84.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 30.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 06/0600Z 30.9N 83.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 06/1800Z 31.6N 82.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 07/0600Z 31.7N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/0600Z 32.4N 80.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 09/0600Z 34.3N 80.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?start#contents
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/60966-tropical-storm-debby-60-mph1001-mb/page/15/
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...rricane-tropical-storm-florida-debby-forecast
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Don't know where you saw that, but it's the exact opposite - this storm is far more dangerous than it looked 2 days ago.
It’s like an October day here in OC today. Cold, gray and windy. Looks like a rainy week ahead
Friend is flying to Key West from Newark Wednesday morning at 10 AM. I told him keep an eye on the weather. He told me to keep him posted instead. Any possible troubles for him?
Assuming he is flying to Miami. Wednesday storm will be in Carolinas. Also, Key West and Miami are far enough south and east that planes may still be flying.
Any clarity on the Tuesday-Thursday rain forecast for central NJ and northern NJ, or is the NWS just still guessing?
Allenwood/Wall/Farmingdale from NWS (1 to 1 3/4 inches of rain and call is for heavy rain and flooding Tuesday night--For Hoboken, NWS forecasting up to 3 inches of rain for the same time period) :
Tuesday
A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog. Low around 69. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Wednesday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Allenwood/Wall/Farmingdale from NWS (1 to 1 3/4 inches of rain and call is for heavy rain and flooding Tuesday night--For Hoboken, NWS forecasting up to 3 inches of rain for the same time period) :
Tuesday
A chance of showers before 11am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11am and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Partly sunny, with a high near 85. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tuesday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Patchy fog. Low around 69. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Wednesday
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Parents in Naples, nada but hard rain
Buddy on the water in Bonita - neatly bad news bears, but disaster averted
Aunt & Uncle in ft Myers - also good
Buddy on the water in Bonita - neatly bad news bears, but disaster averted
Aunt & Uncle in ft Myers - also good
Doubtful, as neither airport will have more than some rain, which won't cancel flights; however, I could see airlines routing a bit out of their way either to the east or west of Debby, which could add time to the trip.
Well, it looks like Debby will be close enough to OCMD to funnel moisture up that way, where it's already supposed to be warm/humid from a stalled front, which is why the NWS is calling for the potential of 3-7" of rain through Saturday, with some of the time featuring showers and probably some torrential rain, but much of the time will likely just be cloudy, warm and humid. So, yes, quite a bit of rain is possible, but there should be decent dry stretches too. Once Debby's remnants pull away, it's looking drier and less humid (and not too hot) for Sunday/Monday. NWS discussion is below for that area.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
410 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 355 PM EDT Monday...
Key Messages:
- The main effects from TC Debby (or what remains) are expected
Thu through early Sat. Heavy rainfall is the primary concern
on the current track, though there may be some TOR threat
Thu/Thu night (or even into Fri if a slower track verifies).
By Thu and beyond, the models diverge with respect to the
evolution of TC Debby, the operational GFS still well S of the
other models, with the ECMWF and CMC in reasonable agreement
into Thu night, with the CMC then speeding up compared to the
consensus by Fri/Fri night. The latest official NHC forecast is
a blend, but a bit closer to the ECMWF/CMC than the GFS. For
our local area, expecting deep tropical moisture to continue to
spread NNE along the SE coast (along the stalled frontal
boundary), with PoPs 50-70% for most of the area Thu- Fri. Highs
will be in the upper 70s W to mid 80s SE Thu, and in the lower
to mid 80s Fri, with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s through
the period. Locally heavy rainfall is the primary impact for the
local area on the current forecast track, with the highest
amounts currently expected along/W of I-95 Thu-Fri (though with
continued uncertainty). Flood Watches will likely be needed for
most (if not all of the FA) for Thu-Fri as PWATs surge in excess
of 2.00" area-wide. Total rainfall amounts through Sat night
avg 3-7", with locally higher amounts possible (see Hydro
section for additional details). While uncertainties remain in
the higher totals, NBM probs for 3"+ are over 50% for most of
the FA. Expect drier air to start moving in from the W as the
system pulls away from the region later Sat, with diminishing
PoPs, and conditions may be mainly dry Sun-Monday (with lower
humidity for next week). Highs mainly in the 80s with lows in
the 60s to around 70F Sun- Mon.
No change for Tues-Thurs for coastal Monmouth, but the NWS backed off a decent amount on rainfall along/NW of 95, including in Hoboken. For you, still lots of rain falling in heavier showers, but then probably decent dry spells, although predicting when/where the heavier showers will be is not really possible. The forecast above still holds for the most part. How much rain we get beyond Thursday depends on Debby's track, which is still a bit uncertain.
Well if you're going to do it leave tonight or by early tomorrow when the heavy rains likely kick in with maybe 2-4" per day over the next 3-4 days. NWS forecast is 10-16" rain for MB thru Sat.
Hopefully this nhc graphic posts (on my phone so not sure)
Thanks. Been doing some yard work and want to have stuff done by Tuesday evening to avoid having a washout of work in progress.
So, it sounds like the storm will track inland (West) after hitting the Carolinas and not move up the coast. I actually had not appreciated that Tues-Thurs is a different storm and Debby is supposed to hit us Saturday.
From my favorite news source!
Tropical Storm Debby on track to dump heavy rain on N.J. region after pounding Southeast
New Jersey also faces a flooding threat from a different storm system Tuesday and Wednesday.
I’m praying it goes out to sea. Doesn’t appear that way thoSo, it sounds like the storm will track inland (West) after hitting the Carolinas and not move up the coast. I actually had not appreciated that Tues-Thurs is a different storm and Debby is supposed to hit us Saturday.
From my favorite news source!
Tropical Storm Debby on track to dump heavy rain on N.J. region after pounding Southeast
New Jersey also faces a flooding threat from a different storm system Tuesday and Wednesday.www.nj.com
It’s been raining here on Hilton Head Island since Sunday. Yesterday we had some pretty strong cells. I did manage to get the dog out when the rain stopped for a few minutes.
I drove up to Gloucester County to cut the grass, thinking Monday would be the only non-rainy day. And it's still sunny here today. I need to learn to read weather forecasts better. Time to go back to the beach...
Latest Debby remnants track has been shifted even further NW of our area, meaning rainfall amounts would be significant, but likely not torrential/flooding levels on Thurs-Sat. Can live with another 1-2" whereas 3-5" on top of the 3-5" many will get today and tomorrow would mean some likely significant flooding. Hoping this track verifies.
Next up is a tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic that the NHC gives a 60% chance of TS formation in the next 7 days, as conditions are relatively favorable for development, i.e., the abnormally warm ocean (fuel), low to moderate shear, and a relatively moist environment now and along its expected path. First area at risk would be the Lesser/Greater Antilles Islands ringing the Caribbean, but still a long way to go before we actually have a storm (if we get one, which isn't a given). Worth watching, though.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
