OT: 2024 Atlantic Tropical Forecasts: CSU/NHC Say Very Active Season; Rafael to Weaken to a TS before coming close to the Northern GOM
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Moving to the next tropical activity forming in the Atlantic now. I am hearing from a family member that there is some potential for east coast New England trajectory in early models. My brother mentioned 12 day gfs.
I know it’s very very early. Thoughts?
I know it’s very very early. Thoughts?
This next wave is becoming more organized with more convection and the NHC now says it's 90% likely to become a named storm in the next 7 days and possibly within 2-3 days. If so, this will be Ernesto and most model tracks take the system over or near the northern Leeward Islands (the little islands E/SE of Puerto Rico) and Puerto Rico in 3-5 days and possibly Hispaniola/Cuba in 4-6 days, possibly as a hurricane, if the intensity forecasts are even close to being right.
Beyond that most indications are that the system will curve N, then NE and stay off the east coast, but that's educated guesswork at this point, as beyond 6-7 days has extremely high uncertainty, especially since we don’t even have a center of circulation yet (so we don't know the starting point for the model runs very well) and the steering currents downstream are also highly uncertain that far out (such as the strength/speed of the forecasted east coast trough and the western Atlantic ridge), plus we don't know much about the potential land interaction with the larger islands of the Greater Antilles. So interests in the Bahamas, Florida and eventually even the Gulf of Mexico and US east coast need to pay attention to this system until we have a better handle on it.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...-forecast-lesser-antilles-puerto-rico-ernesto
Pay zero attention to anything beyond about day 7-8 - the uncertainty is just too high. But as I just posted, folks on the east coast should keep an eye on this one as any storm that is forecasted to be near the Greater Antilles/Bahamas (in 5-7 days, which is somewhat more certain than any 12 day forecast) has a non-zero chance of impacting Florida and the east coast...although most models show the system staying off the coast, but that's so far out that confidence is quite low. Hope that helps.
Very nice recap of Debby, from both meteorology and impact perspectives. The storm was extremely well forecast from inception through landfall in the Big Bend area of Florida as a Cat 1 hurricane and then its slowdown and torrential rains/tornadoes for NE FL, GA and SC and then its fairly fast track from NC to Canada, well west of the 95 corridor, where there were also flooding rains, high winds and isolated tornadoes. The forecast wasn't so great for most of NJ for Debby's remnants.
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...-recap-flooding-tornadoes-southeast-northeast
https://www.wunderground.com/articl...-recap-flooding-tornadoes-southeast-northeast
Likely a close call. Mid/late in the week, storm could go right over the islands or go north of them or just bring some squally weather.
Our models show a 90% chance of developing into a storm. Looks to have a similar path to Debbie.
Looking more like a fish storm now, after hitting the Leeward Islands and probably Puerto Rico, possibly as a Cat 1 hurricane. Let's hope this stays well off the coast.
#'s, heading over to Singer Island near West Palm Beach on Friday. Any impacts to the flight with rain / wind outside the cone ?Looking more like a fish storm now, after hitting the Leeward Islands and probably Puerto Rico, possibly as a Cat 1 hurricane. Let's hope this stays well off the coast.
Somewhat similar to Debby through about Puerto Rico, then totally different, as Debby went into the GOM and then swung back into N FL, while Ernesto looks to stay well offshore of FL/US east coast. I assume your in-house model isn't really showing it's the same as Debby; if so, that would be another bad forecast for the model (along with the projection of landfall in Alabama for Debby and the comment that there was a low chance of Debby turning into NJ).
Usually I'd agree, but I've rarely seen a model consensus (both operational and ensembles) this good 5+ days out, plus, the NHC forecast track would have to shift about 1000 miles west for it to be like Debby and there just has never been an error that large, at least not in the modern era of numerical weather modeling. So, it's not too early, for me, to say this will be very different from Debby. Having said that, it doesn't mean I'm 100% in on the track staying that far off the east coast, since that's out 7-9 days and uncertainty is still high for that - which is why I think Atlantic Canada still needs to watch this.
We are more than comfortable with our methods and the forecast info we use.
Looking more like a fish storm now, after hitting the Leeward Islands and probably Puerto Rico, possibly as a Cat 1 hurricane. Let's hope this stays well off the coast.
And almost certainly a fish storm, now that TS Ernesto finally formed as of 5 pm today and we have better defined initial conditions to input to the models. Ernesto will likely still only be a TS when it hits the northern Leeward Islands tomorrow and Puerto Rico tomorrow night, which is good news for those locations, plus it's moving fairly quickly, hopefully limiting rainfall/flooding to some extent. Beyond that the storm will simply follow the weakness between the Atlantic Ridge and the mid-latitude trough pushing past the east coast of the US and head NW, then N, then NE towards Bermuda, likely as a cat 2/3 hurricane, threatening that island in about 5 days. After that, the only real question is whether Ernesto hits the Canadian Maritimes or not.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/145825.shtml?cone#contents
Maybe 2-3 days of heavy surf/swells (like Friday-Sunday) as per the NWS-Melbourne office graphic below...
I see why we often differ in forecasts. The heading on one of your charts says 5 models. We collect data from 15+ models. We still have 1 model showing the storm going through Florida and another taking it across Mexico. Based on the number of models showing storm turning north and staying off the coast, chance of hitting Florida is very, very low. We use these outliers to just stay on alert in the event the path changes. Don't want to get caught with our pants down and without material inventory at our plants.
No, that's incorrect. The Tropical Tidbits model collection I showed had a title of "Potential tropical cyclone Five Model Track Guidance" where the "Five" is referring to the storm then being "Potential Tropical Cyclone Five" before it had been named. The TT collection contains the model output for every major global and mesoscale model (15+ models) including the specific hurricane models and some ensemble mean outputs. It is the definitive model suite used by most mets. And none of them is showing a track even close to the US east coast and hasn't for a couple of days. There is an infinitesimal chance of this storm coming close to the US east coast (Atlantic Canada is still a possibility, although that's much less likely than a miss at this point.
I wonder if you're mistakenly looking at the outlier individual ensemble members from maybe the ECMWF, GFS or CMC (the major global model ensembles), which in earlier runs have shown members heading into the east coast (like 1 out of 20-50 members, hence the outlier description). I can't imagine any actual model runs showing a FL or MX track (as opposed to an outlier ensemble member). I get wanting to know the full spectrum of outcomes, but I don't know any mets who will look at an ensemble member outlier and use that for a forecast. Maybe ask your modeling folks if they're talking about actual model tracks or ensemble member tracks - big difference.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/
I have a problem with you telling me we are making mistakes when we have been very successful in using our data to minimize disruptions due to hurricanes and as well determining what area we need to move finished product inventory to. We don't just take stuff that is published on the internet. We have other sources of data. I did use the term outliers above as well as say the chances of this storm coming to shore as very, very low. It would be negligent on us to not have a plant such as our Savannah location not ready to react in the event the storm turns. While in this case they would not be in full blown hurricane preparedness, they better have their playbook handy in the event the path shifts.
I don't think I said you were making mistakes, especially with regard to preparedness. Even if no models were showing a hit in Savannah, for example, knowing that all of the models can actually be a fair amount off on track, once in a great while, I'd still want to at least go through some minimal preparations there, just in case the forecast changed drastically, which it sounds like is what you guys are doing. From about 2000-2014 I was one of the leads of our Rahway site emergency preparedness and response team for a 5000 employee site with tens of millions of dollars of inventory and some research materials inventory that was essentially priceless and lived through having to prepare for and respond to storms like Sandy - and like you, we were very conservative in our planning, never wanting to ignore fairly low probability, but high impact threats.
To me, that's much different from trying to figure out what's going on with what your folks are forecasting (or at least what your models are saying) vs. what the NHC and others are forecasting. I'm still curious what models you guys had showing a Florida/Mexico hit, since those are just so far off from what any model or ensemble member from the publicly available models was showing. My apologies if you were actually talking about an outlier ensemble member and not a full fledged model - that just wasn't clear to me. Having said all that, if you're going to share what your in-house models are predicting (which I appreciate, even if I might question it), if they're very different from what the NHC/models are predicting, you should expect to be asked about that, so that one can understand why. Surely you've seen how I get questioned all the time with respect to what I report (and they're not my forecasts, per se) - it goes with the territory.
And almost certainly a fish storm, now that TS Ernesto finally formed as of 5 pm today and we have better defined initial conditions to input to the models. Ernesto will likely still only be a TS when it hits the northern Leeward Islands tomorrow and Puerto Rico tomorrow night, which is good news for those locations, plus it's moving fairly quickly, hopefully limiting rainfall/flooding to some extent. Beyond that the storm will simply follow the weakness between the Atlantic Ridge and the mid-latitude trough pushing past the east coast of the US and head NW, then N, then NE towards Bermuda, likely as a cat 2/3 hurricane, threatening that island in about 5 days. After that, the only real question is whether Ernesto hits the Canadian Maritimes or not.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at5+shtml/145825.shtml?cone#contents
Ernesto is now a Cat 1 hurricane (75 mph winds) and will likely strengthen over the next few days into a Cat 3 hurricane (~115 mph), as per the NHC forecast, with Bermuda being at risk of either direct landfall Saturday morning or a close call to the west of the island, which is almost as bad, given that the east side of the storm is strongest.
Beyond that, the models and the NHC forecast track have shifted a bit west - not so much that the US east coast is at risk of anything other than heavy surf/riptides this weekend - but enough that a landfall on eastern Nova Scotia on Monday is now possible and a landfall on Newfoundland is looking likely (could be an extratropical storm by then, as most hurricanes transition to that when they reach that latitude).
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?start#contents
Our models shows primarily what you show, storm moving north. However there is one model that takes it below Cuba, a 2nd that takes it into Florida and roughly a half dozen that are potentially much closer to the shores of the Carolinas and Virginia (still offshore though). This information comes from meteorology experts with whom we work.
Thanks. Looking at the graphic, I'm wondering two things, which aren't obvious from it: i) was this an ensemble run of a single model with dozens of outcomes based on initial condition perturbations? and ii) is this somehow including output from initial conditions from a couple of days ago? The reason I ask that is because if you look at many of the green and a few of the grey dotted tracks, they begin well SE of where Ernesto is now (or was even early today), i.e., well SE of Antigua, implying that those are a few days old when it wouldn't have been a surprise to have an ensemble member or even an actual operational model run or mean heading towards the east coast or even Cuba.
One wouldn't expect to see any of that since about Monday night. Not trying to bust your chops here - I simply don't quite understand what's being represented, especially when compared to the NHC track and the graphics one sees for all of the publicly available global and hurricane models, none of which show and tracks within 400 miles of the US east coast (link below - having issues posting graphics from imgur right now).
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_latest.png
It’s from this morning. We work with meteorologists we just don’t download stuff off websites.Thanks. Looking at the graphic, I'm wondering two things, which aren't obvious from it: i) was this an ensemble run of a single model with dozens of outcomes based on initial condition perturbations? and ii) is this somehow including output from initial conditions from a couple of days ago? The reason I ask that is because if you look at many of the green and a few of the grey dotted tracks, they begin well SE of where Ernesto is now (or was even early today), i.e., well SE of Antigua, implying that those are a few days old when it wouldn't have been a surprise to have an ensemble member or even an actual operational model run or mean heading towards the east coast or even Cuba.
One wouldn't expect to see any of that since about Monday night. Not trying to bust your chops here - I simply don't quite understand what's being represented, especially when compared to the NHC track and the graphics one sees for all of the publicly available global and hurricane models, none of which show and tracks within 400 miles of the US east coast (link below - having issues posting graphics from imgur right now).
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_latest.png
But if it's on the interwebz it's gotta be true, right?
Can you address my questions? There should be no model (maybe an ensemble member outlier, but not model) as of yesterday morning showing a track even close to Cuba, Florida or even NC, as seen on your graphic. Also, the best meteorologists around (the ones at the NHC, NWS and on-line on weather boards, Twitter, etc.) post and rely on the same models I generally post here, which is why none of them have Ernesto's track coming anywhere near the US coast. Sure, they have some proprietary sources the public doesn't have, like you do (probably the same ones), but the fact that they mostly rely on publicly available models/sources for their forecasts is well known. One can see this in their forecasts where they discuss key model output, especially the major model ensemble forecasts for anything beyond 4-5 days.
You keep trying to make the point we are wrong. I don't specifically know the know the nuts and bolts details of how our information is generated (nor do I need to) so I can't answer your questions specifically. My responsibilities are to analyze the information provided, to assess how it may impact our business and take actions to mitigate. We are very successful in managing risk as a company. Survived Covid without having to shut down any of our 35 manufacturing plants across the country. I created an algorithm 8 years ago to analyse supplier risk to identify our high risk suppliers. We use this religiously in developing our material and supplier strategies. One might say no need to do this as you can buy these models in the marketplace. This one you cannot as it uses primarily internal factors and data not available to the public. I think we'll stay with our procedures and processes rather than rely on message board postings or publically available models.
Yep, but fortunately nowhere is as well prepared for hurricanes as Bermuda, plus the storm might weaken a bit before its closest approach.
Curious why are they well prepared? There are very rarely any direct hits. They are best in world?
Direct hits aren't that rare - they're about every 6-7 years on average and Bermuda feels the impacts of tropical systems every 1.7 years, which ranks 5th for a specific location in the Atlantic Basin - comparing a tiny island's "hits" to a large state like FL (the most) or NC (2nd most) isn't really fair, which is why comparing Bermuda to various cities is more appropriate, as per the link below (Cape Hatteras is first with being impacted once every 1.3 years).
https://hurricanecity.com/rank.htm#:~:text=25) Sarasota, Florida,group with 13 hurricane hits.
Also, Bermuda has a very long history of very impactful hurricanes - in fact the island was first settled by shipwrecked sailors and families (don't think they called it the Bermuda Triangle back then, lol) originally headed to settle in Jamestown in 1609. Many of those direct hits in the 1600s and 1700s led to Bermuda becoming very well prepared for hurricanes, especially with regard to construction, as per this excerpt from the Wiki page. In addition, I happened to catch a report on TWC yesterday highlighting how well prepared Bermuda is for hurricanes with regard to construction, their power grid, harbor security, etc.
Even in intense hurricanes, the islands tend to fare relatively well; ever since a cyclone in 1712 destroyed many wooden buildings, most structures have been built with stone walls and roofs, and are able to withstand severe winds. As a result, hurricane-related deaths have been uncommon since the early 18th century.
https://www.thebermudian.com/home-a...on-2024/the-history-of-hurricanes-in-bermuda/
With regard to Ernesto, unfortunately, the storm is predicted to pass near or over the island tomorrow morning with ~100 mph winds, while it's slowing down, which will lead to 6-9" of rainfall and widespread flooding. Wind and storm surge damage is likely to be substantial also. After striking Bermuda, Ernesto may make another landfall (or near miss) on Newfoundland in a couple of days.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/162348.shtml?
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ernesto was
located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 65.2 West. Ernesto is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown beginning
early Saturday. An accelerating northeastward motion is then
expected late this weekend into early next week. On the forecast
track, the center of Ernesto is expected to pass near or over
Bermuda Saturday morning and near or east of Newfoundland Monday
night.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some gradual weakening is forecast over the next day or so,
though some re-intensification is possible late in the weekend.
Ernesto is a large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 75 miles (120 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).
The Bermuda International Airport recently reported sustained winds
of 41 mph (66 km/h) with a gust to 50 mph (81 km/h). A Saildrone
(SD-1068) recently reported a sustained wind of 68 mph (111 km/h)
and a wind gust of 94 mph (152 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Winds on Bermuda are expected to increase to hurricane force
early Saturday. Due to Ernesto's large size and slow motion, strong
winds will continue on the island into Saturday night.
STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
RAINFALL: Ernesto is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 9 inches or 150 to 225 mm on Bermuda. This rainfall will likely
result in considerable life-threatening flash flooding, especially
in low-lying areas on the island.
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