OT: Hanna to hit TX as Cat 1? Hurricane Douglas aims at Hawaii; TS Gonzalo weakens near Trinidad

[RU848789]

Tropics really heating up early this season with Tropical Depression #8 having formed in the Gulf of Mexico (earliest in season for 8 named systems, assuming Hanna forms) and likely to become Hanna soon and make landfall in SE Texas, bringing modest winds (likely in the 50 mph range) and heavy rains (3-5" with up to 8" in spots).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

And Tropical Storm Gonzalo is making an approach at the southern Windward Islands of the Caribbean (taking a very southerly track close to S. America) and is expected to be a Cat 1 hurricane by the time it reaches those islands in 2 days, before entering the Caribbean Sea, where some weakening is forecast (back to a TS).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/173330.shtml?cone#contents

Neither of these is expected to be a major storm with major impacts, which is good, but it certainly is making for an active season, so far. We really don't need any landfalling hurricanes this year...

 

[Knight Shift]

Wait for it.....

 

[e5fdny]

Tropics really heating up early this season with Tropical Depression #8 having formed in the Gulf of Mexico (earliest in season for 8 named systems, assuming Hanna forms) and likely to become Hanna soon and make landfall in SE Texas, bringing modest winds (likely in the 50 mph range) and heavy rains (3-5" with up to 8" in spots).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?start#contents

And Tropical Storm Gonzalo is making an approach at the southern Windward Islands of the Caribbean (taking a very southerly track close to S. America) and is expected to be a Cat 1 hurricane by the time it reaches those islands in 2 days, before entering the Caribbean Sea, where some weakening is forecast (back to a TS).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/173330.shtml?cone#contents

Neither of these is expected to be a major storm with major impacts, which is good, but it certainly is making for an active season, so far. We really don't need any landfalling hurricanes this year...

I believe with this being “2020” (quotes intentional) and all you might have just jinxed us.

Guessing the alien invasion has been pushed back to post Thanksgiving now?

 

[RUBigFrank]

Gonzalo with an unusual southerly projection

 

[RU848789]

Gonzalo with an unusual southerly projection

Yep, very few tropical systems have actually made landfall in Venezuela or Colombia, although dozens have impacted those SA countries while offshore from their coasts. Gonzalo should remain 100+ miles off the coast of SA though.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_South_America_hurricanes

 

[RU848789]

I believe with this being “2020” (quotes intentional) and all you might have just jinxed us.

Guessing the alien invasion has been pushed back to post Thanksgiving now?

You know you weren't supposed to mention the alien invasion - now you've rooned it...

 

[Knight Shift]

You know you weren't supposed to mention the alien invasion - now you've rooned it...

Izn't spelt runed?

 

[beaced]

You know you weren't supposed to mention the alien invasion - now you've rooned it...

Spelling please. rUned.

 

[RU848789]

So, Tropical Storm Hanna has strengthened over the past 2 days and could be a minimal Cat 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds at landfall in southern Texas, a bit south of Corpus Saturday late afternoon, so hurricane warnings are up. Still shouldn't be a devastating storm for most, but it will be more impactful than originally thought, especially with regard to flooding as much of the region will likely get 5-10" of rain and there's always the risk of small tornadoes.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Hanna

On the other hand, TS Gonzalo was supposed to be the stronger storm (intensity forecasts are still dicey for tropical systems) and it has weakened considerably as it approaches the southern Windward Islands and is barely a TS any more with winds around 40 mph. It could fall apart completely in the next day or two, but it's still forecast to be a weak TS at landfall in the Trinidad/Tobago area, just north of Venezuela this afternoon.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Gonzalo

 

[RU848789]

Also, Hurricane Douglass is bearing down on Hawaii; it's currently a Cat 3 storm, but is forecast to weaken into a Cat 1 storm as it likely skirts north of the Big Island and then strikes or just misses the rest of the smaller islands, such as Maui and Oahu, as it moves WNW through Sunday. Hurricane strikes on the Islands are fairly infrequent, so this could be a very impactul storm for them with storm surges, winds and 6-12" of rain, which can be a real flooding issue, especially in mountainous areas. I'm sure the big wave surfers are excited.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP2+shtml/250548.shtml?

 

[RU848789]

Also, Hurricane Douglass is bearing down on Hawaii; it's currently a Cat 3 storm, but is forecast to weaken into a Cat 1 storm as it likely skirts north of the Big Island and then strikes or just misses the rest of the smaller islands, such as Maui and Oahu, as it moves WNW through Sunday. Hurricane strikes on the Islands are fairly infrequent, so this could be a very impactul storm for them with storm surges, winds and 6-12" of rain, which can be a real flooding issue, especially in mountainous areas. I'm sure the big wave surfers are excited.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP2+shtml/250548.shtml?

Douglas is going to come really close to Maui (late tonight) and Oahu (Mon am) and might make landfall on the northern edge of one or both (especially Oahu) and it's still expected to be a Cat 1 hurricane during this time. Storm surge, high winds and flooding rains (5-10" and locally up to 15") are likely (especially at higher elevations).

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/HFOTCPCP2+shtml/262358.shtml?

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 156.4 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, Douglas will pass near, or over, the islands from
Maui to Kauai through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Douglas is expected to remain a hurricane as it moves through the
islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of Maui County
today, on Oahu by late this afternoon, and on Kauai tonight. Due to
the steep terrain of the islands, hurricane-force wind gusts are
possible even within the tropical storm warning area.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas will affect the Hawaiian
Islands into Monday, producing life-threatening and potentially
damaging surf along exposed shores.

STORM SURGE: The combination of higher than predicted water
levels, dangerous storm surge, and large breaking waves will raise
water levels by as much as 3 feet above normal tides near the center
of Douglas.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands today into Monday.
Total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are possible from Maui
County westward to Kauai County, with the greatest amounts up to 15
inches in elevated terrain. This rain may result in life-threatening
flash flooding and land slides, as well as rapid water level rises
on small streams. Douglas could produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall over the northern half of the Big Island.

 

[RU848789]

So, Tropical Storm Hanna has strengthened over the past 2 days and could be a minimal Cat 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds at landfall in southern Texas, a bit south of Corpus Saturday late afternoon, so hurricane warnings are up. Still shouldn't be a devastating storm for most, but it will be more impactful than originally thought, especially with regard to flooding as much of the region will likely get 5-10" of rain and there's always the risk of small tornadoes.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Hanna

On the other hand, TS Gonzalo was supposed to be the stronger storm (intensity forecasts are still dicey for tropical systems) and it has weakened considerably as it approaches the southern Windward Islands and is barely a TS any more with winds around 40 mph. It could fall apart completely in the next day or two, but it's still forecast to be a weak TS at landfall in the Trinidad/Tobago area, just north of Venezuela this afternoon.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Gonzalo

Hanna did make landfall on South Padre Island last night as a Cat 1 hurricane. Moderate damage from winds and surge and flooding rains all over south Texas and NE Mexico.

https://www.wunderground.com/articl...na-south-texas-northeast-mexico-flooding-high

 

[T2Kplus10]

12 posts in 3 days. 7 from one poster
#nobodycares

 

[RU848789]

Wait for it.....

12 posts in 3 days. 7 from one poster
#nobodycares

We have a winner! T2K has the inside track to defend his title as the Rutgers Rivals site's TOTY.

 

[T2Kplus10]

We have a winner! T2K has the inside track to defend his title as the Rutgers Rivals site's TOTY.

I felt bad for you and your desperate bumping. Trying to give you the attention you are seeking.

 

[DJ Spanky]

So this was another muff by the forecasters: Hanna wasn't supposed to become a hurricane, and Gonzalo was.

 

[T2Kplus10]

So this was another muff by the forecasters: Hanna wasn't supposed to become a hurricane, and Gonzalo was.

Yup.

 

[RU848789]

So this was another muff by the forecasters: Hanna wasn't supposed to become a hurricane, and Gonzalo was.

That's correct. Intensity models still aren't that good. Track models are getting very good, though.

 

[anon_ivydyf0amkzay]

Huge bust...here in SA the forecast was downgraded 4 times and it was still less than that. Operational models nailed it but apparently forecasters still felt the need to overdo it with crazy precip totals.

two days less than 90 was nice. And about 1/2 inch of rain (on average) helped.

 

[pmvon]

That's correct. Intensity models still aren't that good. Track models are getting very good, though.

thanks for the posts. Always interesting to read particularly when they are coming your way.

the idea that people would be surprised that models can be off by minor wind speeds that would categorize a tropical storm vs a hurricane is laughable

 

[RU848789]

Luckily for the NW Hawaiian Islands, Douglas jogged a bit north last night, sparing the islands from the worst of the storm, which is fortunate, since Douglas actually strengthened a little during its path north of the islands. Douglas is now a TS with 70 mph winds and hopefully it's not submerging any more of the French Frigate Shoals atolls, like Hurricane Walaka did two years ago. Interesting story on this:

https://www.wunderground.com/article/safety/hurricane/news/2020-07-27-hawaii-hurricane-douglas

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/hawa...als-climate-change_n_5bcf2a8ee4b055bc9484e803

And this busy season might get busier, as Invest 92L is approaching the Lesser Antilles and could be a tropical storm in the next 2-3 days, as it reaches those islands, including Puerto Rico by Thursday. This tropical wave is also experiencing dry air and some shear, so it might dissipate completely. However, some models show it holding together and becoming a more powerful storm near the Bahamas in about a week, which would mean the US could be at risk, too. Way, way, way too early to worry about, but worth watching.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

https://www.wunderground.com/articl...forecast-atlantic-tropical-development-isaias