My impression is that Conshohocken is at higher altitude than Marlton (which is, like all of South Jersey, pretty flat), and that may explain why C. often gets more. In addition, of course, Marlton is closer to the ocean.
OT: Major West Coast winter storm where some will see over 150 inches of snow
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My impression is that Conshohocken is at higher altitude than Marlton (which is, like all of South Jersey, pretty flat), and that may explain why C. often gets more. In addition, of course, Marlton is closer to the ocean.
My wife and I often go from Cherry Hill to Flemington. To do what you want, you would take Route 31 to what used to be called 95 South, and is now called 295 north. That goes into 95 South in Pennsylvania. I try to avoid taking 95 in Pennsylvania because the part in Philly is often jammed or under construction.
Thank you. I was pretty pleased to look up Jan 15 and see it was also a Miller B. My weakest point as a forecaster is I have no recall of storms, besides jan96. That's it for me, just one. And PD2, although I can't remember if that was in 2002 or 2003 so I guess I'm back to one. I know there are guys who can look at an H5 map and say "this reminds me of such and such storm from ten years ago."
For me, once they're a year or two in the books I can't even name the date let alone how it evolved.
If we get a decent enough hit in Monmouth County that merits shoveling and cleanup, would this snow be of the light/fluffy variety because of the cold/dry air leading in? The snow last month didn’t add up to a lot here, but was quite heavy.
euro...wow..remember this was so far south and east morning it was given nothing north of 78...now this...wow
euro...wow..remember this was so far south and east morning it was given nothing north of 78...now this...wow
Yep, the Euro made a move NW from 0Z to 12Z and just now from 12Z to 18Z and it's back where it was a couple of days ago showing a bomb. This is part of what @RUJohnny and I were talking about with the sensitivity of the coastal low part of a Miller B. And more changes may be in store.
As one of the mets said on 33, three modest changes combined to make a significant change in the outcome: a more stout western ridge upstream, an initially amplified shortwave, and less confluent flow over the northeast (Maine), leading to less suppression, allowing the coastal low to come a bit NW, but not so much it leads to much mix/rain (except S of Toms River).
That's what CIPS Analogs are for, lol. I'm somewhere in the middle. I usually recall the big storms by month/year pretty well and what the modeling run up was beforehand, but only in general (not details of H5 maps, lol), and I usually recall the day of the storm pretty well. But yeah, there are some folks who have incredible memories for this. If you ever spend time on the boards, donsutherland is amazing - he's not a met, but he might as well be and he seems to be able to recall synoptic and modeling details for everything, plus he has a giant database of his own, which has detailed teleconnections for decades, as well as detailed meteorological data for many US locations, but especially for the NE - and he's a damn good pattern forecaster. My best "memory" is my large cache of emails on basically every storm since Jan-96, which was the first one I sent notes out on.
I know Don, he is an encyclopedia. I was active on boards back when they were on WrightWeather. We re you there then? After that there was too much board politics and fighting and schisms and then Twitter replaced a lot of the convo and I never went back.
My memory issues go beyond the weather. I only know the birthdays of my parents, wife, sister, children, and Jesus.
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So Freehold is the bullseye?euro...wow..remember this was so far south and east morning it was given nothing north of 78...now this...wow
Cool. Yeah, I go back beyond WW to the old NE.US-moderated usenet "message board" in the mid 90s, before browsers were invented and that's where I first ran into folks like DT, donsutherland and quite a few others - there was zero moderation on that usenet, so it got brutal at times. It's been 26-27 years, lol. If you're interested, 33andrain is fairly heavily moderated, so there's very little fighting allowed - just gentle banter - so the quality of the discussion is quite high with many well known pros posting (but it is a little snow-goggles-biased at times).
So you must be happy that the Weather Channel started naming storms, right? [roll]
Desalination in the face of supplying a huge agricultural industry is folly. Desalination in the face of "we need drinking water" makes a lot of sense. I was very impressed with the reverse osmosis plants that produce the fresh water needs for Grand Cayman & other small island nations. Cali does have some desalination projects, but they are more boutique and are not sending water to the inland valley to grow tomatoes or anything like that.
Bunk Moreland: “English Motherf’er”!
Although it prob would be helpful if I adopted that practice....I still make an annual PSA to my email distro encouraging people to ignore that BS. They're absurd for thinking they had the authority to do that.
I remember DT v. metrotrade who had the mouse from the simpsons as an avatar. And HM, the mystery genius and Quincy the smart alecky kid from woodstock, CT.
And DT vs. Bartlo and Bartlo's mom and Jeb (Jebwalks in the snow), Ji, weathafella and more. I actually know HM socially, as it turns out he married my best friend's sister, who got her met degree from RU in the early 2000s. He's otherworldly level smart (like my friend, who has been doing hedge funds and investing for years, having written his own programs, which, as I'm sure you know are very similar to the ensemble style forecasting using Monte Carlo simulations - I've done some of that too, for chemical reactor modeling) and as quiet as you might imagine. I wish he posted more, but he's just Twitter. I hate Twitter because it's one-way communication and not a discussion and the limitations on text and graphics suck. I just don't get the appeal, but I do check it on occasion.
Today's 12Z models still showing at least a signficant (4-8") storm for the Philly-NJ-NYC region and some are showing a major (8-12") or more storm, especially for along/SE of 95 towards the coast (with less well N/W of 95). We also saw movement from last night's 0Z runs to today's with the CMC moving the snow field SE, while the Euro moved it NW, so they're closer to each other, while the UK stayed about the same and the GFS ticked SE a bit. Maps are below; didn't include the short range mesoscale models (NAM/RGEM), as they only go through Monday evening.
Bottom line is that the models are all now closer to each other than they've been to date, but the 12Z models initialized at 7 am EST, which was still 60-72 hours away from the start of the event, so more changes are certainly possible. A complete whiff for Philly to NYC along 95 is looking extremely unlikely, but the track could certainly move more SE, making for only a few inches along 95 with a lot for the coast, while a major move NW (making for a rainstorm for most) is very unlikely, but it could certainly move much closer to the coast, which could mean mostly rain for the coast and lots of snow from 95 through the far NW areas.
So, forecasting more than 4-8" right now is probably foolish, although any forecast should mention that 8-12" or more is very much possible for parts or all of the region, but we just don't know where that might be yet. Which is why I like the initial NWS-Philly map, although it should be noted that only goes through 7 pm Monday and no model has the storm over by then.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/201...nter-storm-threat-discussion-2-12-2/page/169/
Since I have the time tonight, I'll do a live thread with the 0Z models, posting them as they come out. Keep in mind they all ingest the same starting data (as far as I know), but how they assimilate that data and how the models perform the numerical analyses and the physical chemical parameters used and the resolution/grid-spacing used to generate outputs like snowfall maps and atmospheric conditions in the future are all different from each other.
And some are longer range and global (Euro, UK, CMC, GFS and more), while others are shorter range and mesoscale (not global, with higher resolution for estimating things like convection, like the NAM, RGEM and HRRR); in addition, they all have some strengths and weaknesses. The NAM/RGEM (non-global) comes out by 10 pm, then the GFS by 11 pm, then the CMC/UK by 11:30-12:00, then the Euro by 1 am - the time it takes is a function of how complex they are plus if they're global or not (more calcs). Also, keep in mind that the storm hammering the west coast is now fully on shore, so it should be fully sampled, which ought to lead to better, more robust output.
Anyway, as someone already posted, the 0Z NAM is snowmageddon for the entire area, so I posted the usual graphic from Pivotal, plus a close-up screen shot. The NAM is a mesoscale, short range model, known for sometimes overamping, i.e., occasionally showing more precip than other models.
And the RGEM (a Canadian mesoscale, short range model, also called the RDPS) is also snowmageddon. Holy crap.
And now here's the first of the global models, the US's GFS model. Not quite snowmageddon, but still a pretty big hit, and a little snowier than it was at 12Z this afternoon, i.e., a small hange. The GFS's cousin, the GFS-V16 (new and improved GFS, supposedly, which has been plagued with rollout issues), looks pretty similar.
The snow keeps coming. Here's the 0Z CMC (also called the GPDS), the Canadian global model. This one is certainly in the snowmageddon camp for most.
Well, there's always a party pooper and tonight it's the UK (again), showing a lot less precip for everyone and shifting the snow shield SE from where it was at 12Z (back to where it was at 0Z last night - it's usually a good model, but it has been a bit erratic lately). Certainly an outlier tonight, so far, assuming the Euro continues to show a major storm in about an hour.
And the 0Z Euro is a bomb, like 18Z was, both of which are far snowier and with snow much further NW of 95 vs. today's 12Z run (in the quoted post above).
So, it was a big night meteorologically speaking. The bottom line is we have moved from the potential for a significant (4-8") to major (8-12") snowstorm, yesterday, to a fairly high likelihood of having at least a major snowstorm with the potential for a historic snowstorm (12-20") for much of the Philly-NJ-NYC region. I would expect the NWS-Philly to extend their winter storm watches (now just for areas south of 276/195 and Middlesex) to their entire set of counties and for the NWS-NYC to issue them for their whole region (which includes Union-Essex-Hudson-Passaic-Bergen in NJ) and I'd expect the NWS to significantly increase their snowfall forecasts from 3-6"/6-10" now to more like 8-12" for most of the area and perhaps even 12-18" for the 95 corridor, although having been too aggressive recently on 12/16, they might just stick with 8-12" for now and only go up further if we see a similar set of runs tomorrow (the NWS swaths go from 8-12" to 12-18" - if they had a 10-15" swath, I'd use that).
We're still 48-54 hours from the start of the storm, so things can still change, even substantially, but that's getting less likely as we're getting pretty close to the event, although as I said last night, we've seen a few major busts occur as late as 6 hours before a storm starts (but those are very unusual). But even if a major bust doesn't happen, seeing a 25-50 mile shift in the entire snow shield is not a huge movement inside 48 hours, i.e., the heaviest snow axis could easily move from the 95 corridor to 25-50 miles in either direction still, meaning a lot more snow NW and a lot more rain along the coast and towards 95 if the move is NW or it could mean very little snow NW of 95 with the heaviest snows SE of the 95 corridor if the move is SE. Either of those outcomes would be a pretty big bust for some, but not all.
4 am edit: NWS just issued winter storm watches for almost the entire region, except for Sussex and the Poconos, and they issued their updated snowfall maps. They went with the 8-12" range for most of their counties in the Philly and NYC offices, but no 12-18" amounts, which is reasonable, given we're almost 48 hours out still and things can still go awry with the forecast in either direction, like the 6Z NAM, which has 6"+ snows north of Trenton to Asbury and 12"+ snows another 20 miles north of that line, but cut down on snow south of there, due to a more NW track bringing sleet/rain - could just be a hiccup, however, as the 6Z RGEM, GFS and GFSv16 are all 12"+ and even 20"+ for Philly-NYC (and 24"+ in some spots). The NWS has less than 8" for the immediate coast and SENJ and Sussex/Poconos and the northern suburbs of NYC.
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You're right, but the new nomenclature is actually less confusing than the old. It was weird driving 295 North, and having the exit numbers going abruptly from 67 to 8 as one went north.
This 500 mbar map is textbook for east coast snowstorms. I think the mets on the board will appreciate this. It's straight out of the Kocin-Uccinelli book on NE US winter storms - the book that led to everyone calling major NE snowstorms "KU" storms.
Please check the size of Israel to California, prior to posting.
Jupiter Island's water supply is provided by a reverse osmosis supplied from the mainland. My water bill was usually around 500 a month to keep the lawn irrigated and the pool filled.
Jupiter Island's water supply is provided by a reverse osmosis supplied from the mainland. My water bill was usually around 500 a month to keep the lawn irrigated and the pool filled.
I do and what a tangled weave of red tape to sort through. Had to hire my own Environmental Engineer, pay for maps then pay the NJ DEP to send out two college age kids more interested in my livestock than the markers I just paid $6k to get. Took over.a year to get.the permit as it sat on someone’s desk.
Then to top it off the Township Land use dipshit has no idea how to read the maps. Says, “where’s the riparian rights at?” I say there’s no fvcking stream. Won’t budge. Send my Engineer down, who rips him a new one. It turns out he’s using outdated maps from the 70’s. Huge pain in the ass,
You hear a property has wetlands just laugh at the homeowner and walk away. Our farm it wasn’t disclosed to us since they bought in 1980 and the act didn’t go into effect till 1986. So they were under no legal obligation to do so. That guy ever stops by I’m going to punch him square in the face and smile the whole way to jail.
Thanks for the updates #'s. Appreciate the effort you put into these posts.
Since I have the time tonight, I'll do a live thread with the 0Z models, posting them as they come out. Keep in mind they all ingest the same starting data (as far as I know), but how they assimilate that data and how the models perform the numerical analyses and the physical chemical parameters used and the resolution/grid-spacing used to generate outputs like snowfall maps and atmospheric conditions in the future are all different from each other.
And some are longer range and global (Euro, UK, CMC, GFS and more), while others are shorter range and mesoscale (not global, with higher resolution for estimating things like convection, like the NAM, RGEM and HRRR); in addition, they all have some strengths and weaknesses. The NAM/RGEM (non-global) comes out by 10 pm, then the GFS by 11 pm, then the CMC/UK by 11:30-12:00, then the Euro by 1 am - the time it takes is a function of how complex they are plus if they're global or not (more calcs). Also, keep in mind that the storm hammering the west coast is now fully on shore, so it should be fully sampled, which ought to lead to better, more robust output.
Anyway, as someone already posted, the 0Z NAM is snowmageddon for the entire area, so I posted the usual graphic from Pivotal, plus a close-up screen shot. The NAM is a mesoscale, short range model, known for sometimes overamping, i.e., occasionally showing more precip than other models.
And the RGEM (a Canadian mesoscale, short range model, also called the RDPS) is also snowmageddon. Holy crap.
And now here's the first of the global models, the US's GFS model. Not quite snowmageddon, but still a pretty big hit, and a little snowier than it was at 12Z this afternoon, i.e., a small hange. The GFS's cousin, the GFS-V16 (new and improved GFS, supposedly, which has been plagued with rollout issues), looks pretty similar.
The snow keeps coming. Here's the 0Z CMC (also called the GPDS), the Canadian global model. This one is certainly in the snowmageddon camp for most.
Well, there's always a party pooper and tonight it's the UK (again), showing a lot less precip for everyone and shifting the snow shield SE from where it was at 12Z (back to where it was at 0Z last night - it's usually a good model, but it has been a bit erratic lately). Certainly an outlier tonight, so far, assuming the Euro continues to show a major storm in about an hour.
And the 0Z Euro is a bomb, like 18Z was, both of which are far snowier and with snow much further NW of 95 vs. today's 12Z run (in the quoted post above).
So, it was a big night meteorologically speaking. The bottom line is we have moved from the potential for a significant (4-8") to major (8-12") snowstorm, yesterday, to a fairly high likelihood of having at least a major snowstorm with the potential for a historic snowstorm (12-20") for much of the Philly-NJ-NYC region. I would expect the NWS-Philly to extend their winter storm watches (now just for areas south of 276/195 and Middlesex) to their entire set of counties and for the NWS-NYC to issue them for their whole region (which includes Union-Essex-Hudson-Passaic-Bergen in NJ) and I'd expect the NWS to significantly increase their snowfall forecasts from 3-6"/6-10" now to more like 8-12" for most of the area and perhaps even 12-18" for the 95 corridor, although having been too aggressive recently on 12/16, they might just stick with 8-12" for now and only go up further if we see a similar set of runs tomorrow (the NWS swaths go from 8-12" to 12-18" - if they had a 10-15" swath, I'd use that).
We're still 48-54 hours from the start of the storm, so things can still change, even substantially, but that's getting less likely as we're getting pretty close to the event, although as I said last night, we've seen a few major busts occur as late as 6 hours before a storm starts (but those are very unusual). But even if a major bust doesn't happen, seeing a 25-50 mile shift in the entire snow shield is not a huge movement inside 48 hours, i.e., the heaviest snow axis could easily move from the 95 corridor to 25-50 miles in either direction still, meaning a lot more snow NW and a lot more rain along the coast and towards 95 if the move is NW or it could mean very little snow NW of 95 with the heaviest snows SE of the 95 corridor if the move is SE. Either of those outcomes would be a pretty big bust for some, but not all.
Was the Jan 1996 storm a Miller B?
@RU848789 do u think this keeps ticking N and W? I’m in Hamilton and most of the model runs have me near the bullseye area for once. I’m not confident it will stay that way.
Hahaha! This may be the best sentence I have ever read on TKR!
Do you get lost a lot?? 😂
To get to Flemington the current named roads would be. 295 North. 95 South after Route 1 no need to change roads. Route 31 North. 202 North. It's a pain in the ass to get there from Southern NJ or PA and is no longer worth going to as the town isn't what it used to be.
If you missed 31 and entered PA on 95 South just keep going South and home. Your welcome.
I don’t know how to post images, but the 6z NAM is a snowmageddon type of map for all of NJ north of 195, with 20+ inches for Middlesex, Monmouth, Mercer, Somerset counties.
A new run coming up soon but at 6z it was way NW a Dec 2020 redux. 6-8 inches here with dryslotting and less even at cost with all big amounts pushed north of i80. Its a total outlier
Euro and gfs came him in huge this morning but snowmaps are overdone
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