OT: Major West Coast winter storm where some will see over 150 inches of snow
- Thread starter Tango Two
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The EURO at 6z was still not on board with this storm keeping much of the accumulations south of 95 and toward the coast. It continues as the biggest outlier.
No one is throwing the high amounts as a forecast just yet
No one is throwing the high amounts as a forecast just yet
Possibly as early as late Sunday afternoon but some models not until wee early Monday morning. Its a longer duration event that will last into Tuesday
As you can see, the National Weather Service thinks that NJ will generally receive 4-6 inches, with one area at 6-8 inches.
Gfs snow map really cut totals north of 78 and nw jersey..verbatim say in sussex down to an inch or two
Throw all snow maps out right now. The models keep shifting but nothing is set.
The Euro could be leading the way..we shall see
Throw all snow maps out right now. The models keep shifting but nothing is set.
The Euro could be leading the way..we shall see
That's what she said... assuming you're talking about the the 6-8 and not the 4-6. 🙂
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
Looking like snow queens along the coast and LI might get their wishes...few NWS office write up weather discussions like Upton does...they are very good at it.
those in NW Jersey may not be pleased with this storm. UKMet still a big hit but you can see how it want to shift the heaviest to right along the coast, the cutoff for this storm could be quite tight where you could see 3 inches in Hacketstown, 6 inches in Somerville, 9 in Metuchen and 12 in Tinton Falls
Still nowhere near model consensus and forecast 60 hours out from possible start time.
Still nowhere near model consensus and forecast 60 hours out from possible start time.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
Love Miss Adelaides face markings...(not to derail the thread)
I should have pointed out that the NWS forecast is only through 7 p.m. on Monday, and more snow may fall that night and Thursday morning. The next projection should tell us more.
Euro moved west....the gradient is insane and it still may not be done correcting west, if so then all of us could be in the game for huge dumps...on the other hand it could also shift back east and north jersey might not see anything...you see what a shift of even 25-50 miles can make
I think the models are keying on shore areas and south of 95 and south jersey getting the brunt of the snowdump...what is uncertain is whether that heavier snowfall spreads west of I95 through the entire region.
Ummmmmmmm........................
So, after a hiccup in this afternoon's 12Z model suite, in which the UK (2nd best performing model) showed a whiff for north of Philly/SNJ, the UK at 0Z shows a major snowstorm, while the CMC and GFS continue to show a major snowstorm for most (8-12" at least and 12-18" for many). However, now the Euro has become the outlier, although not a whiff for everyone like the UK was - instead it's a whiff for areas 25+ miles NW of 95 with 3-6" for the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC and 6-12" from just SE of 95 to the coast, as the Euro track is about 75 miles SE of where it was earlier today. So we don't quite have consensus, but 3 of 4 is still a pretty strong signal for a major snowstorm.
Since the main piece of energy was ashore on the west coast this evening meaning I think better data should have been incorporated into tonight's model runs (the 0Z runs have a 7 pm EST data initialization), so between that and now being within 72-84 hours of the start of the storm (very late Sunday to early Monday), it's time to show the model snowfall maps, especially since they're starting to be seen all over social media anyway. Also by Saturday morning, the storm will be within range of the shorter range mesoscale models like the NAM/RGEM (which only run out 84 hrs).
Again, the model outputs are not a forecast, as most pros won't start making snowfall forecasts until sometime tomorrow, but it's beginning to look quite likely that we're going to get at least a significant snowfall (4-8") for the Philly-NJ-NYC area (and well beyond that to DC to Boston and there is a lot of potential to see a major (>8") snowstorm (not going to put probabilities on these yet, but suffice it to say that I wouldn't be planning to travel on Monday and maybe Tuesday), although the Euro run (the best model) has to be concerning for predicting more than 8" yet - but having 3 of 4 models showing generally >12" for most of the area clearly shows that 8-12" or more is certainly on the table.
Today's 12Z models still showing at least a signficant (4-8") storm for the Philly-NJ-NYC region and some are showing a major (8-12") or more storm, especially for along/SE of 95 towards the coast (with less well N/W of 95). We also saw movement from last night's 0Z runs to today's with the CMC moving the snow field SE, while the Euro moved it NW, so they're closer to each other, while the UK stayed about the same and the GFS ticked SE a bit. Maps are below; didn't include the short range mesoscale models (NAM/RGEM), as they only go through Monday evening.
Bottom line is that the models are all now closer to each other than they've been to date, but the 12Z models initialized at 7 am EST, which was still 60-72 hours away from the start of the event, so more changes are certainly possible. A complete whiff for Philly to NYC along 95 is looking extremely unlikely, but the track could certainly move more SE, making for only a few inches along 95 with a lot for the coast, while a major move NW (making for a rainstorm for most) is very unlikely, but it could certainly move much closer to the coast, which could mean mostly rain for the coast and lots of snow from 95 through the far NW areas.
So, forecasting more than 4-8" right now is probably foolish, although any forecast should mention that 8-12" or more is very much possible for parts or all of the region, but we just don't know where that might be yet. Which is why I like the initial NWS-Philly map, although it should be noted that only goes through 7 pm Monday and no model has the storm over by then.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/201...nter-storm-threat-discussion-2-12-2/page/169/
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Have to keep in mind that that's only thru 7 pm Monday and the storm is not over by then, so more than that is likely...
in the Euro ensemble mean you could see how there members showing little but also some big hits...the mean just shows the average and its not as aggressive as the OP
Isnt this supposed to start Sunday evening? I dont want to have to drive to work Monday. My work van sucks in the snow. Hopefully I get a snow day. Maybe snowed out on Teusday too if it goes into late Monday night.Today's 12Z models still showing at least a signficant (4-8") storm for the Philly-NJ-NYC region and some are showing a major (8-12") or more storm, especially for along/SE of 95 towards the coast (with less well N/W of 95). We also saw movement from last night's 0Z runs to today's with the CMC moving the snow field SE, while the Euro moved it NW, so they're closer to each other, while the UK stayed about the same and the GFS ticked SE a bit. Maps are below; didn't include the short range mesoscale models (NAM/RGEM), as they only go through Monday evening.
Bottom line is that the models are all now closer to each other than they've been to date, but we're still 60-72 hours away from the start of the event, so more changes are certainly possible. A complete whiff for Philly to NYC along 95 is looking extremely unlikely, but the track could certainly move more SE, making for only a few inches along 95 with a lot for the coast, while a major move NW (making for a rainstorm for most) is very unlikely, but it could certainly move much closer to the coast, which could mean mostly rain for the coast and lots of snow from 95 through the far NW areas.
So, forecasting more than 4-8" right now is probably foolish, although any forecast should mention that 8-12" or more is very much possible for parts or all of the region, but we just don't know where that might be yet. Which is why I like the initial NWS-Philly map, although it should be noted that only goes through 7 pm Monday and no model has the storm over by then.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/201...nter-storm-threat-discussion-2-12-2/page/169/
NWS just posted a map showing that Rte 95 is currently believed the battle zone, with points north and west of 95 having the highest potential for significant snow, and points south and east of 95 getting a "snow to mix/rain" scenario. https://www.weather.gov/phi/weatherstory. They haven't updated the snow total map that they posted at 4:46 a.m. this morning, though.
Does this mean that the most recent model runs (18z?) have shifted back NW from where they were at 12z?
Does this mean that the most recent model runs (18z?) have shifted back NW from where they were at 12z?
Yes - I added details to my post. It's 60-72 hours from 7 am EST today, which is when today's 12Z models initialized and that means the start is roughly between 7 pm Sunday and 7 am Monday (and likely near midnight). If we're going to get a decent snowfall on Monday, starting before dawn, I think a lot of places will be closed on Monday and if we get a major storm that continues into Tuesday, many places will also be closed Tuesday.
long duration storm but unless you get under the heavy banding its not really going to be coming down that hard.. Snow growth looks poor..still 36 hours of snow can add up
No, that was posted last night and should be taken down, as it's out of date. Right now the heaviest snows look to be from 95 towards the coast with little to no rain/mixing, as per the 5 am NWS snowfall map I posted. Of course, that can change, but the map you linked to is way out of date.
the main show is Monday afternoon overnight into Tuesday morning, if this holds you might be going into work
