Well, given that all 4 major models (Euro, UK, CMC, and GFS, as well as every lesser known model) are showing a major winter storm traversing the US from the west coast (currently getting crushed with rain and mountain snows) today and tomorrow, through the central Plains by Saturday and the Ohio Valley on Sunday, reaching our area late Sunday/early Monday (depending on the model) and then redeveloping off the NC/VA coast and hammering most of our area with generally 8-12" of snow (only the UK shows a bit less - more like 5-9") and more than 12" for many (and this storm is hitting everywhere from DC to Maine), mostly from late Sunday through Monday (but into Tuesday on some), it's time to start a new thread, as we're now within 5 days of the start of the event. I don't intend to paste a bunch of model runs in this thread until we're maybe 3 days out (like Thurs night; others can, of course), as they're going to shift some (maybe a lot) until we're closer to the event (and the system isn't over land, with better data inputs to the models until tomorrow afternoon).
Like any potential major storm, the details are highly uncertain 4-5 days out, with outcomes being somewhat different across the models which is to be expected this far out. The point isn't to debate the exact details of who will get how much snow/rain and when, but just to recognize that a significant winter storm is looking likely for our area, with a wide range of potential wintry outcomes. Just as a point of comparison, though, this system looks to be at least as imposing as the 12/16 system did at 4-5 days out on the models.
It's possible that the cold air in place could still suppress the storm causing it to largely miss us to the south, although even the least snowy case is likely still a few inches for everyone from the initial low before it redevelops off the coast). And it's also possible the storm takes a track much closer to the coast bringing in much more rain, especially for 95 and SE of there. A third thing that could go "wrong" is that the northern and southern stream systems don't "phase" well, leading to a much weaker storm with less precip. But right now the models are all showing a pretty classic Miller B system approaching from the west (with the lighter snows possible on Sunday) and then transferring its energy to a coastal low, which heads NE as a nor'easter bringing heavy wintry precip to our area.
With respect to the models, the Euro is a major snowstorm with 8-14" for everyone except less, due to rain, about 20-30 miles SE of 95 and maybe only a few inches at the coast. The Euro is the slowest model, bringing precip in early Monday and lasting into late Tuesday. The Canadian shows 7-12" (with a few lollipops up to 15") for essentially everyone, except near Cape May, due to some mixing; it starts late Sunday night and goes through early Tuesday. The GFS shows 8-14" for everyone N of 276/195, with 4-8" south of that line due to mixing; the GFS starts with some light snow Sunday afternoon, but the main snow is late Sunday through late Monday. Finally, the UK is showing a bit less snowfall than the other models, as it's a bit further offshore, so less precip - it's showing 6-9" for NYC metro and NENJ from Monmouth/Middlesex up through Bergen, but less N and W of there (4-6") and south of 195 (3-6"); the UK also shows precip from late Sunday through early Tuesday. Lots more to come, I'm sure. The usual links below...
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/201...inter-storm-threat-discussion-2-12-2/page/18/
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...um-late-sunday-jan-31-early-tue-feb-2/page/6/
And with regard to what's heading here, this is a really good tweet thread from Jim Sullivan from WeatherWorks (a local outfit many here like) on why he thinks this could be a significant winter storm for the midwest and mid-Atlantic/Northeast. He explains the teleconnections and drivers pretty well.
Like any potential major storm, the details are highly uncertain 4-5 days out, with outcomes being somewhat different across the models which is to be expected this far out. The point isn't to debate the exact details of who will get how much snow/rain and when, but just to recognize that a significant winter storm is looking likely for our area, with a wide range of potential wintry outcomes. Just as a point of comparison, though, this system looks to be at least as imposing as the 12/16 system did at 4-5 days out on the models.
It's possible that the cold air in place could still suppress the storm causing it to largely miss us to the south, although even the least snowy case is likely still a few inches for everyone from the initial low before it redevelops off the coast). And it's also possible the storm takes a track much closer to the coast bringing in much more rain, especially for 95 and SE of there. A third thing that could go "wrong" is that the northern and southern stream systems don't "phase" well, leading to a much weaker storm with less precip. But right now the models are all showing a pretty classic Miller B system approaching from the west (with the lighter snows possible on Sunday) and then transferring its energy to a coastal low, which heads NE as a nor'easter bringing heavy wintry precip to our area.
With respect to the models, the Euro is a major snowstorm with 8-14" for everyone except less, due to rain, about 20-30 miles SE of 95 and maybe only a few inches at the coast. The Euro is the slowest model, bringing precip in early Monday and lasting into late Tuesday. The Canadian shows 7-12" (with a few lollipops up to 15") for essentially everyone, except near Cape May, due to some mixing; it starts late Sunday night and goes through early Tuesday. The GFS shows 8-14" for everyone N of 276/195, with 4-8" south of that line due to mixing; the GFS starts with some light snow Sunday afternoon, but the main snow is late Sunday through late Monday. Finally, the UK is showing a bit less snowfall than the other models, as it's a bit further offshore, so less precip - it's showing 6-9" for NYC metro and NENJ from Monmouth/Middlesex up through Bergen, but less N and W of there (4-6") and south of 195 (3-6"); the UK also shows precip from late Sunday through early Tuesday. Lots more to come, I'm sure. The usual links below...
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/201...inter-storm-threat-discussion-2-12-2/page/18/
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...um-late-sunday-jan-31-early-tue-feb-2/page/6/
And with regard to what's heading here, this is a really good tweet thread from Jim Sullivan from WeatherWorks (a local outfit many here like) on why he thinks this could be a significant winter storm for the midwest and mid-Atlantic/Northeast. He explains the teleconnections and drivers pretty well.
