OT: Official 2021 NY Mets Season Thread
- Thread starter Tango Two
- Start date
- Status
Last year in 60 games, Mets used 10 starters.
- deGrom 12
- Porcello 12
- Peterson 9
- Wacha 7
- Lugo 7
- Matz 6
- Gsellman 4
- Oswalt 1
- Lockett 1
- Jurado 1
- deGrom
- Stroman
- Walker
- Lucchesi
- Peterson
- Yamamoto
- Gsellman
- Eickhoff
- McWilliams
- Oswalt
- Szapucki
- Kilome
- Reid-Foley
- Gonzalez
- Y. Diaz
Add in Syndergaard and Carrasco in because they will probably be back,maybe just in time when we need an extra starter or two.
I expect 4/5 type stats but you still lost me with your evaluation. His last 3 starts last year were super solid
5 innings 3 hits 2 earned runs
6 innings 3 hits 1 earned run
7 innings 4 hits 1 earned run
how does that show big time regression
I don't want to kill you with numbers but basically he has a low K rate, high walk rate, and got lucky with HRs staying in the park and hits not falling. Add all that up and it's not a profile you usually see success with. I get he's a ground ball pitcher so a lot of that helps with this stuff but the overall numbers don't match up with the underlying numbers. He'll be fine in the back end but has some work to do that's all.
Wheeler doesn't strike out opposing players like he used to with the Mets. He pitches to contact as advised by the Phillies. You go deeper in games. Could that be Peterson's M.O.? He'll never strike people out at a high rate. It's not his strength.
Ehhh- his number are actually favorable to guys like Eflin and Stroman...I agree that he needs to cut down on walks, I do think he will develop more of an "out" pitch...but he has pitched 10 games in his career and has only pitched 2 "bad" games. A couple of shorter games but most of his games are pretty positive. And while K's are such a big deal now...if he is getting guys out- evidence by a 1.2 whip and 3.44 era and he ended the year with some of his strongest games...I don't really care all that much about all the advanced stuff.
Rookie- 6-2, only 2 bad games, 3.44 era and 1.208 whip...I am struggling to find much fault. Guys are obviously not putting good wood on the ball.
And what the hell does HR's stay in the park and hits not falling???That may be the silliest thing I ever heard. A HR does not stay in the park by definition and hits don't get caught. I guess G Maddox really sucked in his career if hits fell and HR's didn't stay in the park.
I get the point- Peterson has a very short resume...he does have some holes- mostly a high walk ratio- but that is also countered by a very low hit ratio. There is no proof that he can repeat what he did last year or sustain it over a longer season.
But...Regressed(when I showed that he improved at the end of the year) and hits not falling and HR's staying in the park???That is just crazy talk
Former NJ Gov. Christie to join Mets board of directors
pix11.com
Former NJ Gov. Christie to join Mets board of directors
FLUSHING, Queens — Former New Jersey Gov. and presidential candidate Chris Christie has joined the board of directors of the New York Mets, the team announced Friday. Christie, who often atte…
pix11.com
I didn't even know he was a Mets fan.Former NJ Gov. Christie to join Mets board of directors
Former NJ Gov. Christie to join Mets board of directors
FLUSHING, Queens — Former New Jersey Gov. and presidential candidate Chris Christie has joined the board of directors of the New York Mets, the team announced Friday. Christie, who often atte…
Ive seen nothing as of Friday evening suggesting that Carrasco would be out that long. Let me go check for an update.
Former NJ Gov. Christie to join Mets board of directors
Former NJ Gov. Christie to join Mets board of directors
FLUSHING, Queens — Former New Jersey Gov. and presidential candidate Chris Christie has joined the board of directors of the New York Mets, the team announced Friday. Christie, who often atte…
DIslike big time.
You may also be right...I don't think he has enough history to know what he will become. But yes, hope you are wrong.
Wow. Got lucky with home runs not going out and hits not falling in. Quite an evaluation. I go back to the 62 Mets so Tom Seaver had to be one of the luckiest pitchers ever to play.
Why does this lard ass need to bring his taint to our organization?Former NJ Gov. Christie to join Mets board of directors
Former NJ Gov. Christie to join Mets board of directors
FLUSHING, Queens — Former New Jersey Gov. and presidential candidate Chris Christie has joined the board of directors of the New York Mets, the team announced Friday. Christie, who often atte…
Zak- this is where you are killing yourself...
What if a guy like @zappaa told you that saying he is lucky that HR's stayed in the park and hits didn't fall, doesn't make any sense? Would you tell him he can't handle stats or would you accept that your statement defies the game of baseball?
On an opposite note- I would have made it to the hall of fame if all my HR's cleared the fence and if all my hits fell.
I'm not killing myself considering the front offices for the best teams in baseball believe in this stuff. There is a slight skill to it but overall there is a lot of luck involved when you dive into hard hit percentage, barrel percentage etc. If you don't want to believe in it that's fine but you bet your butt that the Dodgers, Yankees, Rays, etc use all this stuff.
You didn’t give any beside being lucky. Just an FYI, I’m trained in stats and use frequently at work so I’ll do my best to keep up.
Because he and Cohen are buds.
The ironic thing is that if Cohen had domiciled his corporations in NJ rather than NY, Christie might have prosecuted him.
That is my thing- I find it hard to believe that there is a stat for HR’s that don’t leave the park or hits that don’t fall.
Good thing we added the extra depth pieces for the starting pitching pool. Luchessi and Yamamoto.
HRs that don't leave the park and hits that don't fall are called outs. I can't believe there isn't an advanced stat that takes into consideration pitchers that can get batters out. I would have to believe teams would have at least minimal interest in acquiring pitchers that can get batters out. Seems sorta important to me.
It just happened to be one of the silliest things I ever heard in Baseball- "that pitcher was lucky that the HR's stayed in the park and the hits didn't fall" - and then try to say there are facts that back that up or stats or something. I think I would love to have that lucky pitcher on my team.
This is not crazy at all. Not saying it applies to Peterson. I have no idea if it does. But it's not crazy.
It's based on a couple of factors:
- We now keep stats on the percentage of hard-hit balls that a pitcher gives up. Over the long run, the more hard-hit balls, the higher the WHIP, BABIP, and ultimately ERA. If a pitcher's hard-hit ball percentage is high, but the other metrics are not, it's fair to assume that the pitcher had some good fortune which should even out over time.
- Everybody's a home run hitter nowadays. Everybody's figured out the launch angles. So, if you're a fly ball pitcher, it's assumed that a certain percentage of those fly balls will leave the yard. If you give up a lot of fly balls but not a lot a homers, one COULD assume that you were lucky and that it will eventually even out.
- This one I think is less valid but still prevalent. Everyone loves strikeout pitchers nowadays. There seems to be a belief that if you let the batter hit the ball, it's pretty much random as to whether he'll get a hit. To SOME degree that is true. Some grounders find holes, others find gloves. But there is such a thing as pitching to soft contact, which from the pitcher's perspective is much better than hard contact.
That is a interesting point. K's are valued for Pitchers but it doesn't matter if a hitter strikes out 200 times.
A player I love and not even a HR hitter who I find interesting. Nimmo
He strikes out and walks at very high rates.
1309 plate appearances in his career 198 walks 334 K's 36 HBP 276 Hits
But that also means that he has put the ball into play only 741 times.
So, when he puts the ball in play- he has a .372 average
Do the same exercise with McNeil and his average on balls put into play is .362
Both very good numbers but more drastic with Nimmo- I would think it would show it is still just better baseball to make contact as a hitter.
Yes, try to post something other than it’s too high above me to comprehend when you have no clue of my background sports wise, professionally or academically.
Actually- his summary was pretty good and it does make some sense when you look at it that way. Question- because I don't know- was Peterson's rate of hard hit balls or exit velocity or whatever it is...was it higher than average?
And if it was- maybe he is a guy that is just built for a pitcher's stadium like we have here.
I am sure you are like me...when Doc Worm took the time to explain the thought behind it, it made sense and was not too high above us.
I'm surprised considering your background you don't already know then. You'd think you would be into the advanced stats a lot more. BTW you were being a bit rude before I was with your snark. I will post the info though. I will even apologize for my original comments.
Long story short yes. I didn't originally post all the numbers right away because it seemed like you didn't want to read it honestly. I understand a lot of fans don't like the analytics so I try not to kill everyone here with it.
BTW- Even with Carrasco out for a while...I still feel very good about this team. Stroman looks like he is poised to be a true number 2. Luchessi had a rough game today but had been very good previously- the other starters very solid. Other than Betances and Familia, our BP looks better than we have seen in years and that is without Lugo. A couple of months from now when Lugo, Noah, Carrasco are all back- our pitching has a chance to be very very good.
This team will also score. A couple of guys having rough springs but I am not going to worry about McNeil. Lindor, Conforto, Alonso, Nimmo , McCann and others- just solid as hell.
Diaz- he has been lights out. Looking like 2018 form with him.
And a really solid/professional bench.
Kind of scary that we may not have seen the best of deGrom yet.
This team will also score. A couple of guys having rough springs but I am not going to worry about McNeil. Lindor, Conforto, Alonso, Nimmo , McCann and others- just solid as hell.
Diaz- he has been lights out. Looking like 2018 form with him.
And a really solid/professional bench.
Kind of scary that we may not have seen the best of deGrom yet.
Zak- bottom line is that no matter what anyone says- even if the analytics are correct, most oldtime baseball fans are going to go by the eyeball test. The funny thing is...in most cases, the eyeballs of "skilled" fans- usually are spot on with the new analytics even if you don't know it.
We have been talking about a ball jumping off a guy's bat for years. Back in the day, you couldn't explain it but you saw it and mostly even heard it.
But even with all those analytics...There really are only a few important stats.
For a Pitcher- ERA and Whip
A hitter We used to look at BA, OBP and SLg, so OPS is actually a great stat. And then Runs and RBI's.
The thing is...very few pitchers that don't have good advanced stats will have good "basic" stats. Same with hitters...
Thos late 90's Yankee teams were loaded with superstars- they were loaded with a bunch of damn good baseball players and we didn't need advanced stats to see that...
I have some real facts...
6-2 3.44 era 1.208 Whip Rookie 👍😉
And that is with a bad defensive team. He didn’t have Ozzy Smith out there for him.
So as I said this doesn't mean Peterson won't get better but just based on some of the stuff we saw last year I expect his ERA to go up about a full point unless some things change. I do think he will improve though. Also it's a small sample last year so need to see more data as the year goes on.
First I'll give ERA/FIP/xFIP. ERA you know at 3.44. FIP is fielder independent pitching which helps identify stuff that he can control since he can't control the defense behind him. It puts more emphasis on ERA/HR/BB etc since that is within pitcher control.
His FIP was a full run higher at 4.52. This is mostly because of low K rate at 7.25 K/9 which is slightly below average to average and high BB rate at 4.35 BB/9 which is considered awful. Where the luck part comes in a bit is his BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) against was .233 meaning hits were not dropping in. This number is usually higher and while there can be some of control of this by the pitcher it's also considered lucky when this number is that low. This will go up. He also had a LOB percentage of 76.8% which means he stranded a lot of runners which is good but that percentage doesn't mix well with the K/9 and BB/9 numbers I gave above. I expect this to go up also which means his ERA would go up as well unless he improves on these other aspects.
His xFIP was almost another full run higher than his FIP and two runs higher than his ERA. His xFIP was 5.11. xFIP takes into acct FIP but adds a average standard for HR percentage for that year. David HR/9 was at 0.91 which is low and if it's considered out of his control the number might go up. This is something that might go up which is why his xFIP is worse than his FIP. Now there are arguments that a pitcher can control his HR/9 more than others so this could be considered a skill and it might with him because he is a sinker ball guy. We'll need more data to see if this is the case. In the minors it does look low so I actually think it's safe to say we'll see a lower than average HR/9 so his ERA should will always outperform his xFIP.
Wins do not matter. All you need to do is look at deGrom as the poster child for this.
FIP and xFIP are predictive numbers based on his actual performance so if profile stays the same his ERA which is showing performance will go up to match. I think his profile fits fine as a back end 4/5 which is what we're expecting. It's why I was pushing for more and more SP depth as the off-season went on. Peterson as a 3 is questionable but as your 5 is perfect. As I have said earlier I just didn't want people to expect the same numbers if he doesn't change/improve.
First I'll give ERA/FIP/xFIP. ERA you know at 3.44. FIP is fielder independent pitching which helps identify stuff that he can control since he can't control the defense behind him. It puts more emphasis on ERA/HR/BB etc since that is within pitcher control.
His FIP was a full run higher at 4.52. This is mostly because of low K rate at 7.25 K/9 which is slightly below average to average and high BB rate at 4.35 BB/9 which is considered awful. Where the luck part comes in a bit is his BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) against was .233 meaning hits were not dropping in. This number is usually higher and while there can be some of control of this by the pitcher it's also considered lucky when this number is that low. This will go up. He also had a LOB percentage of 76.8% which means he stranded a lot of runners which is good but that percentage doesn't mix well with the K/9 and BB/9 numbers I gave above. I expect this to go up also which means his ERA would go up as well unless he improves on these other aspects.
His xFIP was almost another full run higher than his FIP and two runs higher than his ERA. His xFIP was 5.11. xFIP takes into acct FIP but adds a average standard for HR percentage for that year. David HR/9 was at 0.91 which is low and if it's considered out of his control the number might go up. This is something that might go up which is why his xFIP is worse than his FIP. Now there are arguments that a pitcher can control his HR/9 more than others so this could be considered a skill and it might with him because he is a sinker ball guy. We'll need more data to see if this is the case. In the minors it does look low so I actually think it's safe to say we'll see a lower than average HR/9 so his ERA should will always outperform his xFIP.
Wins do not matter. All you need to do is look at deGrom as the poster child for this.
FIP and xFIP are predictive numbers based on his actual performance so if profile stays the same his ERA which is showing performance will go up to match. I think his profile fits fine as a back end 4/5 which is what we're expecting. It's why I was pushing for more and more SP depth as the off-season went on. Peterson as a 3 is questionable but as your 5 is perfect. As I have said earlier I just didn't want people to expect the same numbers if he doesn't change/improve.
Last edited:
- Status
Similar threads
