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T2Kplus20

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Today felt like capitulation (at least short term). I bought 500 calls of SOXL. Strike price 21 and expiring 05/27 for $0.60. Also bought TQQQ calls expiring 05/27 with strike price 29 for $0.60. Already up big in both those. I am hoping for big up days early next week.
+1
Big up days coming soon. The market is massively oversold on the oscillator.
 

rurahrah000

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FYI - one of my posts from a few months ago, about the 3x ETFs. The 2x are obviously less risky:

I don't know the "correct" timing, but I know the "better" timing and rely on the historic principle that stuff goes up (in general). LOL! I also calculated a few scenarios to test the long hold theory using Morningstar's $10k return chart. If you bought at the absolute worst time over the past 10 years, here is what happened:

2/19/20 - $10,000
3/20/20 - $3,003 (so you lost 70% at bottom)
11/19/22 - $30,002 (so 3x at the ATH peak even if you bought at the worst time possible)
Held until today - you still would have about $15,000

I tested a few other extremely negative scenarios and it worked out fine. The only time that it didn't work out was during the full dot.com and 9/11 crash when the QQQ dumped 85%. That compression of the daily 3x was too strong to survive. You still would not have made your money back today if you bought literally at the dot.com zenith. That's the only scenario where this plan turned out to be a loser.

You probably know this already, but for others reading the post, the math is actually in your favor. Since it 3x's daily, you get a significant multiplier affect beyond just the 3x on the upswing. If the QQQ goes up 20% over 6 months, the TQQQ doesn't go up 60%, but actually much higher. On the flip side, since 0% is the mathematical floor, it works in reverse going down. So a 20% drop in QQQ is only about -50% or so for the TQQQ.

As I mentioned before, I am VERY comfortable with holding onto UPRO for the long haul. I am still thinking about TQQQ. As for SOXL, this is even more nuts that TQQQ. I have already experienced multiple +/- 15% days. I only own $5k of SOXL and may convert to the 2x version or perhaps short term play it.

Interesting stuff! I learned a lot over the past few months on these leveraged funds. :)
That’s not the way I would have run the numbers and done the math. Need to account more for volatility. But good luck.
 

T2Kplus20

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That’s not the way I would have run the numbers and done the math. Need to account more for volatility. But good luck.
Good advice for the short term, but I am setting a level for the market to get back to and then I will figure out what to do (hold, sell, or trim). Until then, I will be patient and add when/if nice opportunities arise.
 

rurahrah000

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TSLA is in a free fall today. Makes you wonder about the hedge fund guy begging for buy backs earlier in the week. TSLA was the retail traders only salvation and now it’s been pummeled. This morning a CNBC guy mentioned the Reddit crowd losing their minds. Time to invest in the company that makes Ramen noodles?
I am surprised that Musk has gotten so into politics lately. Biden must have really pissed him off with the union and EV stuff. But unless Musk has a grand plan in mind, I am questioning his recent moves. He is seemingly breaking one of the cardinal rules of business… know your customer. I would venture to guess that an overwhelming majority of Tesla car owners and liberals and progressives from California, NJ, NY, etc. Why is he trying to piss them off with all this voting for republicans nonsense? It’s not like the trailer trash, inbred meth addicts from disgusting and poor states in the Deep South are going to start ponying up $100,000+ to buy his cars. I don’t know, he may have a grander plan in mind that I am not seeing.
 

RUinPinehurst

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I am surprised that Musk has gotten so into politics lately. Biden must have really pissed him off with the union and EV stuff. But unless Musk has a grand plan in mind, I am questioning his recent moves. He is seemingly breaking one of the cardinal rules of business… know your customer. I would venture to guess that an overwhelming majority of Tesla car owners and liberals and progressives from California, NJ, NY, etc. Why is he trying to piss them off with all this voting for republicans nonsense? It’s not like the trailer trash, inbred meth addicts from disgusting and poor states in the Deep South are going to start ponying up $100,000+ to buy his cars. I don’t know, he may have a grander plan in mind that I am not seeing.
He's underestimating the tolerance level of Tesla's prospective customer base and overestimating his ability to win that demographic. Full of himself. And no one in his immediate circle is willing or able to enlighten him. I'll enjoy his struggles. Couldn't happen to a nicer guy. Now, about that whole "I'll buy you a horse" thing.... LOL.
 

RUAldo

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Article in WSJ that going rate for babysitters is $25-$30 plus dinner LOL. It was $12-$15 before COVID. WTF is going on in this world.
 
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T2Kplus20

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I am surprised that Musk has gotten so into politics lately. Biden must have really pissed him off with the union and EV stuff. But unless Musk has a grand plan in mind, I am questioning his recent moves. He is seemingly breaking one of the cardinal rules of business… know your customer. I would venture to guess that an overwhelming majority of Tesla car owners and liberals and progressives from California, NJ, NY, etc. Why is he trying to piss them off with all this voting for republicans nonsense? It’s not like the trailer trash, inbred meth addicts from disgusting and poor states in the Deep South are going to start ponying up $100,000+ to buy his cars. I don’t know, he may have a grander plan in mind that I am not seeing.
All companies should stay out of partisan politics. Look what is happening to Disney in FL. As Michael Jordan said:

"Republicans buy sneakers, too"

This statement works for all parties and products.
 
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Steve91562

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Article in WSJ that going rate for babysitters is $25-$30 plus dinner LOL. It was $12-$15 before COVID. WTF is going on in this world.
When inflation seep into wages, watch out! core and wage are important parts of those inflation readings.
 

patk89

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I would venture to guess that an overwhelming majority of Tesla car owners and liberals and progressives from California, NJ, NY, etc. Why is he trying to piss them off with all this voting for republicans nonsense? It’s not like the trailer trash, inbred meth addicts from disgusting and poor states in the Deep South are going to start ponying up $100,000+ to buy his cars. I don’t know, he may have a grander plan in mind that I am not seeing.
I know that you are exaggerating in this comment but the false stigmatization of those who don't jump on the progressive bandwagon is disgusting. I totally agree that rich progressive Greens may begin thinking twice about their Tesla purchase. Musk is spreading himself too thin and should never have pursued Twitter. Many ascribe significant value to his leadership of Tesla. You really don't want that to become impaired.
 

T2Kplus20

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When inflation seep into wages, watch out! core and wage are important parts of those inflation readings.
Thankfully, wage inflation has calmed down. I believe 5-6 months ago it was also spiking which caused fear of a possible price spiral, but this is no longer the case.
 

rutgersguy1

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Been away for about a month, anything interesting happen with the market while I was gone lol.

I saw some prices I mentioned months ago like say for example AMZN at 2000 (which some thought were crazy) were just about met. Not really in the mood to read a month's worth of posts but any one picking up things or just staying on the sidelines.
 

FastMJ

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Cherry Hill
Start buying TQQQ and UPRO. URTY is also a great play since small-cap valuations are at a 20 year low.
I’m buying and holding IJS. Do you really think a leveraged ETF on small caps make sense? Who the hell knows when valuations will come back and certainly not a good short term call.
 

jtung230

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Been away for about a month, anything interesting happen with the market while I was gone lol.

I saw some prices I mentioned months ago like say for example AMZN at 2000 (which some thought were crazy) were just about met. Not really in the mood to read a month's worth of posts but any one picking up things or just staying on the sidelines.
RU MLAX beat Penn to reach the semifinals of the NCAA tournament.
 

RU-05

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Today felt like capitulation (at least short term). I bought 500 calls of SOXL. Strike price 21 and expiring 05/27 for $0.60. Also bought TQQQ calls expiring 05/27 with strike price 29 for $0.60. Already up big in both those. I am hoping for big up days early next week.
If it does do you sell the rip?
 

jtung230

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Today felt like capitulation (at least short term). I bought 500 calls of SOXL. Strike price 21 and expiring 05/27 for $0.60. Also bought TQQQ calls expiring 05/27 with strike price 29 for $0.60. Already up big in both those. I am hoping for big up days early next week.
Let us know how you make out on this trade. Open interest on your SOXL contract is 587. Be interesting to see liquidity on this.
 

RU-05

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1. Exponential growth is difficult to forecast, but the Tesla YouTube and Twitter community has been far more accurate vs WS. And, for good reason...these guys are exclusively hyperfocused on Tesla. Rob Mauer, Troy Teslike, James Stephenson, and the Tesla Economist are some of the best. I'm sure some may laugh that a guy on YouTube or Twitter knows more about Tesla than an almighty analysist at an investment firm. Check their track record, it speaks for itself.

2. Again, Tesla is well past the days of teetering on bankruptcy. Despite this, many still view them through this lens...i.e. Tesla is a "high risk" investment. The miss 6 q's ago was the height of the Covid panic and Fremont unjustly shutdown. Out of their control, much like the Shanghai shutdown this Q will hurt short term. If China is such a huge risk, why are they building a 2nd factory in Shanghai? Haven't you noticed the trend? Short term FUD and clickbait dominates the headlines, these stories are forgotten within a few weeks, Tesla continues to perform, repeat the cycle. Look no further than this thread for the individuals that are oblivious to this trend.

3. Growth slowing? No chance. "Scaling to extreme size" was the quote from the last earnings call. Yes, more factories, more products, more batteries, more vertical integration, more acquisitions, and expanding into new markets (mining, robotics, artificial intelligence, licensing software). Revenue has been growing significantly faster than capex, despite all of the craziness of the last 2 years + building 2 new factories. Tesla is extremely efficient with their capex. This has lead to a good problem....too much cash on hand. They currently have enough free cash (and basically zero debt) to build another 5-6 Giga factories, but can't because they haven't secured the supply. They've already become a cash printing machine. What is that going to look like by mid/late decade? Stock buybacks/dividends are certainly on the table. Honestly, I can't see a way for them to spend all of their free cash going forward, but I'm looking forward to being surprised.

4. I'm highly confident your earnings forecast will be wrong. See #3

Have a look see
Shareholder deck q1 2022
I combed through Teslike's twitter and it def sounds like Shanghai is going to be a drag. CSCO was just hit big on it's earnings and they pointed directly at the Shanghai shutdowns. Are those shutdowns unjust, much like the Fremont shutdowns were? Perhaps, but shutdowns to some capacity expected till June 1st, some cars are mostly built, but waiting on a single part.

One also must wonder about how the Euro market is going to perform, certainly appears to be a more difficult landscape there.

Now all that's is admittedly short term stuff.

Long term Teslike has production estimates for 2022 being 1.46 million cars. Right around 50% increase yoy. 2023 he estimates 2.1 mil. Again 50%, so maintaining fantastic growth. 2024 2.56milion, so growth slows significantly, to around 20%. 2025, 2.68 million, which is 5ish%.

So much like industry analysts Teslike see's growth leveling off significantly in coming years. To reach 20 million by 2030 as you predicted earlier, they would need to expand production by 8x in 5 years time. I imagine at some point we hear plans for new plants, but color me skeptical.
 
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T2Kplus20

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Good conversation on inflation and the Fed. CW is speaking with chief economist from Piper Sandler:

 

Steve91562

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Good conversation on inflation and the Fed. CW is speaking with chief economist from Piper Sandler:

There's a middle ground too ignored by many where inflation does moderate down, significantly off the 1970's type, but then levels off at a higher rate then before, around CPI 3-4%. Where it levels off is just as important as when it pivots down. Significant inflationary pressures remain, both transit and otherwise -- supply chain hiccups, transition to Green energy, strengthening labor, money supply, ect -- but also there remain deflationary areas too (e.g., technology, Boomers not spending, ect ). No one has a crystal ball, and some really bright people are disagreeing, so at least you should consider the various possibilities.
 
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RU-05

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There's a middle ground too ignored by many where inflation does moderate down, significantly off the 1970's type, but then levels off at a higher rate then before, around CPI 3-4%. Where it levels off is just as important as when it pivots down. Significant inflationary pressures remain, both transit and otherwise -- supply chain hiccups, transition to Green energy, strengthening labor, money supply, ect -- but also there remain deflationary areas too (e.g., technology, Boomers not spending, ect ). No one has a crystal ball, and some really bright people are disagreeing, so at least you should consider the various possibilities.
If we are talking purely about the market, I think it would welcome 3-4% with open arms. At least for awhile.
 
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T2Kplus20

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Oof, 46 minutes? I think at some point her call for deflation proves to has some level of merit, but the inflation that has occurred already makes her call incorrect.
Go to the 28-30 min mark. It summarizes the main point. Inflation will crash due to inventory issues.
 
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T2Kplus20

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There's a middle ground too ignored by many where inflation does moderate down, significantly off the 1970's type, but then levels off at a higher rate then before, around CPI 3-4%. Where it levels off is just as important as when it pivots down. Significant inflationary pressures remain, both transit and otherwise -- supply chain hiccups, transition to Green energy, strengthening labor, money supply, ect -- but also there remain deflationary areas too (e.g., technology, Boomers not spending, ect ). No one has a crystal ball, and some really bright people are disagreeing, so at least you should consider the various possibilities.
CW and the Piper Sandler person talked about rent being the stickiest of inflation drivers.
 

RU-05

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Go to the 28-30 min mark. It summarizes the main point. Inflation will crash due to inventory issues.
Ya I thought the TGT and WMT reports of too much inventory was a good sign. Maybe not for those companies, and maybe not for the market in general short term, but in terms of inflation, which is the biggest concern out there right now.

Bout to roll, but I'll look at commodity prices later, I know they were significantly off their highs, though that was a story in the fall too, before they took off higher again.
 
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Steve91562

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Go to the 28-30 min mark. It summarizes the main point. Inflation will crash due to inventory issues.
That's about how far I got. I just took the talk about inventories being a reflection of demand destruction and supply chains being restored, thus inflation likely coming down quicker than anyone expects. We'll see.
 
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T2Kplus20

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That's about how far I got. I just took the talk about inventories being a reflection of demand destruction and supply chains being restored, thus inflation likely coming down quicker than anyone expects. We'll see.
The Piper lady says inflation UNDER 2% by the end of the year. I guess they are seeing some very bad data.
 
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Steve91562

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The Piper lady says inflation UNDER 2% by the end of the year. I guess they are seeing some very bad data.
That would surprise but that would make everyone happy!!! Maybe I'll have to listen through a bit more.

CW and the Piper Sandler person talked about rent being the stickiest of inflation drivers.

WSJ article last week about rents in Miami exploding, pricing out locals and younger workers.
 
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T2Kplus20

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That would surprise but that would make everyone happy!!! Maybe I'll have to listen through a bit more.



WSJ article last week about rents in Miami exploding, pricing out locals and younger workers.
The video is pretty good to 36-38 mins. Then there is a long wrap-up.
 

Steve91562

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The video is pretty good to 36-38 mins. Then there is a long wrap-up.
I listened to it all now. Interesting. Although I agreed with much of what the economist said, they're extrapolating a lot from little data, then -- my impression -- putting a pretty big spin on it. If they're correct, you should start seeing the monthly data reflecting it very soon. Ha, ha, the economist said inflation "below 2%" at the end of the year but her chart said 3%.

To have inflation drop so much, so quickly, you would expect severe demand weakening, and they say that's happening right now, but I don't see that happening around me. Sure people don't have stimulus checks, but we're at full employment. Parking lots, restaurants, ect., still filled. April numbers on retail spending and industrial production were up. Fed rate hikes haven't even yet begun to work though the economy. The inventory thing seems a partial red herring -- some of it Target/Walmart possibly overstocked, and people relocated spending to service, travel, not material things. You still hear companies talking about supply chain issues, although no doubt improved.

They mentioned the yield curve and the yield on the 10 year reflecting low future inflation, and traditionally those were metrics, but you really can't tell anything from those anymore, because the gov't purchased so many bonds in QE it distorted the long yields.

I don't know. Certainly food for thought. Maybe the prior year of high inflation coupled with a big jump in gas prices has already dented demand. The Target/Walmart stuff did show some weakening, at least for the bigger ticket items and certain segments of the demographic. Maybe enough supply chain issues have corrected.

We'll know shortly.
 
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rurahrah000

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I know that you are exaggerating in this comment but the false stigmatization of those who don't jump on the progressive bandwagon is disgusting. I totally agree that rich progressive Greens may begin thinking twice about their Tesla purchase. Musk is spreading himself too thin and should never have pursued Twitter. Many ascribe significant value to his leadership of Tesla. You really don't want that to become impaired.
You are correct. not the right forum, but frustrating to see a CEO of a major company delve into politics. Not needed and will potentially hurt shareholders.
 
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rurahrah000

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SOFI has actually broke out of its downward channel but it's bumping up against the 50DMA so I'd think it would have issues in this area.
I noticed that as well. I can't believe I missed it. Options are selling very cheap. Calls for $8 strike expiring on 05/27 are only selling for 0.2. I am not certain if they will be at that level come tomorrow, but if they are anything close to that it maybe worth a shot.