I combed through Teslike's twitter and it def sounds like Shanghai is going to be a drag. CSCO was just hit big on it's earnings and they pointed directly at the Shanghai shutdowns. Are those shutdowns unjust, much like the Fremont shutdowns were? Perhaps, but shutdowns to some capacity expected till June 1st, some cars are mostly built, but waiting on a single part.
One also must wonder about how the Euro market is going to perform, certainly appears to be a more difficult landscape there.
Now all that's is admittedly short term stuff.
Long term Teslike has production estimates for 2022 being 1.46 million cars. Right around 50% increase yoy. 2023 he estimates 2.1 mil. Again 50%, so maintaining fantastic growth. 2024 2.56milion, so growth slows significantly, to around 20%. 2025, 2.68 million, which is 5ish%.
So much like industry analysts Teslike see's growth leveling off significantly in coming years. To reach 20 million by 2030 as you predicted earlier, they would need to expand production by 8x in 5 years time. I imagine at some point we hear plans for new plants, but color me skeptical.
