OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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So then he's also right about the Feds going too far and should pull back. Inflation is coming down anyway. :)
NVDA and SNOW tonight.
I have a ton of Semi's so while I've been long been keeping an eye on NVDA I def have exposure, and have taken the beating.
SNOW would be a bit more unique to my portfolio(though I do have a fair amount of cloud). Still a price to rev's of 33x.
I have a ton of Semi's so while I've been long been keeping an eye on NVDA I def have exposure, and have taken the beating.
SNOW would be a bit more unique to my portfolio(though I do have a fair amount of cloud). Still a price to rev's of 33x.
Benjamin Moore implementing yet another 10% price increase. Gas prices right there at their highs. Still need to see how Ukraine and weather is going to effect food prices. So I'm a little wary that inflation has indeed peaked.
BOOM! Another awesome quarter by NVDA. Double beat!
www.cnbc.com
More buybacks as well.
Nvidia stock falls on light guidance, CFO says company will slow hiring
The stock dropped in extended trading after the chipmaker gave a light forecast for the current quarter.
More buybacks as well.
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NVDA = first $5T company in a few years. Buy all dips, especially the stupid ones!
I mentioned above 115-135 is the vicinity I'd look as a possible spot for NVDA. We'll see if it gets there or not. That's the plateau area before it kind of went parabolic so wonder if it will not revisit somewhere in the future and consolidate in that vicinity.
I’m sure it will go lower and will continue to buy as it goes down. Everyone is now predicting 3,300-3,500 on S&P 27%-30% down which will move all stocks further down.
CBO report. Inflation to start coming down quickly:
www.cnbc.com
CBO boosts U.S. GDP growth estimates, says inflation has topped and will cool to 2% by 2024
A report released by the Congressional Budget Office on Wednesday estimates that real gross domestic product, or GDP, will advance 3.1% in 2022.
And half the people on CNBC, lead analysts from Fidelity, T Rowe Price, and Morningstar, etc. LOL!
CBO report. Inflation to start coming down quickly:
CBO boosts U.S. GDP growth estimates, says inflation has topped and will cool to 2% by 2024
A report released by the Congressional Budget Office on Wednesday estimates that real gross domestic product, or GDP, will advance 3.1% in 2022.
CBO? Seriously? When was the last time they were right about anything.
Sane investors battling back against the stupid ones. Good to see. It was a great quarter.
I’ll take Micron over NVDA. Semis with PEs of 44 and weak guidance not good in this environment.
Sold out of both of the calls at around $0.7. Not a huge profit, but I will hit singles once in a while. I have feeling that this market will be sideways for a while
Bad decision. NVDA is the star of the semi's. No problem with buying a few of them (or my index plays), but not jumping on NVDA at these artificially low prices is nuts.
Good article from Cramer and the CNBC Charity Trust Team:
It’s traders vs. investors — and investors like us are here to fight the bear, not flee
We are beginning to see a sharp bifurcation between what traders are doing and what investors are up to. That’s how I feel about the instant negative reaction to Best Buy’s quarterly numbers the other day and subsequent vindication, as well as the double-digit percentage drop in the stock of Dick’s Sporting Goods after earnings versus Wednesday’s nearly 10% increase at the close. Quite a trough to peak type of day.
It’s not just retail. We saw a similar instantly wrong reaction in the stock of Toll Brothers after its breathtakingly strong earnings report. Here you saw a premier homebuilder’s stock looking down big, a verdict overturned by investors no doubt cheered by a strong forecast, even in the face of multiple, further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes — something that you have to feel is even more certain of after the afternoon release of the hawkish minutes from the central bank’s May policy meeting.
What do all three of these companies have in common? Ridiculously low price-to-earnings multiples out one to two years. Best Buy comes in at about 8 times the next 12 month earnings estimates. Dick’s and Toll are at 5.6 and 4 times forward earnings, respectively, according to FactSet. These are multiples that are saying one thing: We are going to have one doozy of a recession.
But what if “doozy” can be taken off the table? As I go through these quarters, I see domestic companies getting giant haircuts. I see international companies, like Club holdings Cisco Systems (CSCO) and now Nvidia (NVDA), getting buzz saw cuts from China and Russia. The commonality here: your stock will either be hit by the Fed or by China’s strict Covid lockdown or by the Russia’s Ukraine war — one, two, maybe even the trifecta.
Now the instant rebounds we saw I think reflect the notion that it is worth the risk not that we will avoid recession — that’s not even possible or we would not get single-digit multiples — but that we will avoid the “doozy.”
Your equity can be protected if your company makes things or does stuff and returns capital to shareholders via dividends, buybacks or both, while also selling at reasonable prices. But the protection is more like that of two vaccine shots: You can still get omicron but you’re less likely to end up in the hospital.
For now, though a simple judgment can be made: The traders’ instinct are the wrong ones. They see degradation where investors see obvious short-term impairment. We continue to believe that it is worth taking the two shots and staying in (the market) rather than fleeing. We wish for a booster but don’t have one yet.
Stay the course with those companies that fit our descriptive. Even Nvidia gives you a buyback. (More on that later when we publish our full analysis of Nvidia’s earnings to Club members.) Avoid the others.
Lose less than the other guy until the bear is declawed and then make more money in a few days than you lost in months. That’s how it has been. That’s how I think it will be.
It’s traders vs. investors — and investors like us are here to fight the bear, not flee
We are beginning to see a sharp bifurcation between what traders are doing and what investors are up to. That’s how I feel about the instant negative reaction to Best Buy’s quarterly numbers the other day and subsequent vindication, as well as the double-digit percentage drop in the stock of Dick’s Sporting Goods after earnings versus Wednesday’s nearly 10% increase at the close. Quite a trough to peak type of day.
It’s not just retail. We saw a similar instantly wrong reaction in the stock of Toll Brothers after its breathtakingly strong earnings report. Here you saw a premier homebuilder’s stock looking down big, a verdict overturned by investors no doubt cheered by a strong forecast, even in the face of multiple, further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes — something that you have to feel is even more certain of after the afternoon release of the hawkish minutes from the central bank’s May policy meeting.
What do all three of these companies have in common? Ridiculously low price-to-earnings multiples out one to two years. Best Buy comes in at about 8 times the next 12 month earnings estimates. Dick’s and Toll are at 5.6 and 4 times forward earnings, respectively, according to FactSet. These are multiples that are saying one thing: We are going to have one doozy of a recession.
But what if “doozy” can be taken off the table? As I go through these quarters, I see domestic companies getting giant haircuts. I see international companies, like Club holdings Cisco Systems (CSCO) and now Nvidia (NVDA), getting buzz saw cuts from China and Russia. The commonality here: your stock will either be hit by the Fed or by China’s strict Covid lockdown or by the Russia’s Ukraine war — one, two, maybe even the trifecta.
Now the instant rebounds we saw I think reflect the notion that it is worth the risk not that we will avoid recession — that’s not even possible or we would not get single-digit multiples — but that we will avoid the “doozy.”
Your equity can be protected if your company makes things or does stuff and returns capital to shareholders via dividends, buybacks or both, while also selling at reasonable prices. But the protection is more like that of two vaccine shots: You can still get omicron but you’re less likely to end up in the hospital.
For now, though a simple judgment can be made: The traders’ instinct are the wrong ones. They see degradation where investors see obvious short-term impairment. We continue to believe that it is worth taking the two shots and staying in (the market) rather than fleeing. We wish for a booster but don’t have one yet.
Stay the course with those companies that fit our descriptive. Even Nvidia gives you a buyback. (More on that later when we publish our full analysis of Nvidia’s earnings to Club members.) Avoid the others.
Lose less than the other guy until the bear is declawed and then make more money in a few days than you lost in months. That’s how it has been. That’s how I think it will be.
How many financial news services do you subscribe? I assume you paid for this info.
Morningstar and CNBC Investment Club (paid). I also get tons of stuff from T Rowe and Fidelity due to my accounts and balance levels. Those are free.
Does the CNBC Investment club give you access to Pro articles?
Morningstar looks good.
No, unfortunately the Club and Pro are different services. However, you get so much info with the Club (emails and videos), it probably covers some Pro stuff anyway. I joined in Jan when it launched and I'm very happy. Great compliment to Morningstar.
As for Morningstar, it is awesome. Best service out there! Coverage of macro, funds, sectors, and now many stocks is top notch. Personally, I can't do with it. I also love their portfolio management tool and premium service called X-Ray (must have for funds).
Jimbo was one of the biggest NVDA pumpers so he can’t bail now. I think he named his dog after the company.
Is Boeing going to survive? Current price $122 , down to 68% from ATH, which is the price level in 2014, 8 years ago. Is it a good long term investment,3-5 years?
Twitter jumps after Musk increases commitment in takeover bid to $33.5 billion, in talks for other funding
- In a filing Wednesday, Elon Musk noted that his personal financial commitment to the Twitter deal is now $33.5 billion.
- Musk reiterated his commitment to completing the $44 billion deal, and is working on additional financing.
Twitter jumps after Musk increases commitment in takeover bid to $33.5 billion, in talks for other funding
In a letter to investors backing the holding company that Musk is forming to take Twitter private, he expressed his commitment to completing the deal.
Remarkable performance for such a large company. NVDA may be the best out there today:
- Revenue rose 46% year over year to $8.29 billion, outpacing expectations of $8.13 billion.
- Adjusted earnings per share of $1.36, up 49% year over year, edged the consensus of $1.30.
- Additionally, adjusted gross margin of 67.1% was higher than estimates of 66.8%.
Overall, it was a good quarter, which ended calendar year May 1. However, Nvidia’s results were being overshadowed by a slightly weaker than analyst estimated guide, which quite frankly, everyone should have seen coming due to the well-known events in Europe and China.
What is striking to us is that Nvidia’s share price surely reflected an impending guide down, with the stock down roughly 40% since China’s Covid lockdowns began in late March. However, the consensus revenue estimate for the upcoming quarter ending in July has barely budged over the past few months at $8.4 billion, creating a misperception that Nvidia provided a weak outlook.
We are in the camp that the stock’s beaten down earnings multiple should have already reflected this downside, and with no change to our bullish views about the company’s secular trends, this could create an opportunity for patient, long-term oriented investors like us.
Something doesn’t add up here - there is no way given the current environment that Musk sticks to $54.20 per share. If I had to guess, his lawyers told him he needs to continue to take reasonable steps to close the deal while they work on the legal strategy. Probably doesn’t want to give Twitter BOD ammunition by failing to pursue financing.Twitter jumps after Musk increases commitment in takeover bid to $33.5 billion, in talks for other funding
In this article
- In a filing Wednesday, Elon Musk noted that his personal financial commitment to the Twitter deal is now $33.5 billion.
- Musk reiterated his commitment to completing the $44 billion deal, and is working on additional financing.
Twitter jumps after Musk increases commitment in takeover bid to $33.5 billion, in talks for other funding
In a letter to investors backing the holding company that Musk is forming to take Twitter private, he expressed his commitment to completing the deal.
NVDA is the TSLA of chips. Yes, “long-term” prospects are good but still too expensive right now given the macro environment.
I wouldn't pay $54.20 if it was my money but who knows what he does.
I see a lot of people saying he has to do it because of the breakup fee but I don't see it that way. I bet he looks as that as an option that he purchased that could expire. If he sees the value at $40 (just using this as an example) today, why would he pay $54? That's a $14 loss on day 1. I think he would rather lose the $1B than do that.
I also saw Dorsey resigned from the board and pledged his shares. That's 5% less cash he has to raise.
It’s already been said he can’t walk away for a billion fee. we all know the 4.20 part of the price will not change.
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