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OT-Will it Snow on Friday?

R

retired711

Heisman Winner
Nov 20, 2001
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Cherry Hill
I am getting married this Friday, the 6th. It will be a very small ceremony at my home in Cherry Hill. Present will be my sister and her husband (they live in North Brunswick), my bride's sister (Hackensack) and her boyfriend (Westwood). All of them will be driving down on Friday morning.

I now see that the National Weather Service says there is a 30%-40% chance of snow on Thursday night and Friday in all of these places. Interestingly enough, the NWS mentions an accumulation amount (1-2 inches) only for Cherry Hill. My fiancee tells me that this storm is supposed to be off Long Island.

I know that three days out is too long for a reliable snow forecast. But I'd appreciate it if the weather mavens could follow the situation and update when possible on what the weather is likely to be. Thanks to all of you who know about weather forecasting.
 
I was considering starting a thread last night for two possible waves...one Thurs night into Fri and another on Sunday but since probablity was so low I didnt bother. The models generally have supressed both systems south and the effect minimal and the greatest chances of anything happening would be south jersey or the coast. Since most trends were out to sea until this morning I have not followed the model runs today but will check now and give an update

Congrats on your wedding!
 
bac2therac said:
I was considering starting a thread last night for two possible waves...one Thurs night into Fri and another on Sunday but since probablity was so low I didnt bother. The models generally have supressed both systems south and the effect minimal and the greatest chances of anything happening would be south jersey or the coast. Since most trends were out to sea until this morning I have not followed the model runs today but will check now and give an update

Congrats on your wedding!
Click to expand...


Mt Holly disco....Thursday night through Friday...Low pressure develops along the
Carolina coast and moves towards the northeast. The low will track
close enough to our area to bring measurable snow to the region.
Heaviest and/or steadiest snow will move in later Thursday night and
continue to fall through the overnight and into Friday morning. Snow
is expected to taper off through Friday afternoon. The highest
amounts will be closer to the coast in our Southern New Jersey and
Delmarva counties. Areas to the north and west of the I-95 corridor
are not expected to see much in the way of precipitation with 1-3
inches possible to the south and west of I-95.(I think they meant to say east)

so as of now if you are in central jersey we are getting nothing from this storm, further south is where they are predicting some snow so I would watch the potential for this, will not be a big event but light snows south of 95...and there is a possibility its weaker and supressed more and there is just flurries so I wouldnt get to worried yet. Still 60 hours or so out from the event so things can change
 
camdenlawprof said:
I am getting married this Friday, the 6th. It will be a very small ceremony at my home in Cherry Hill. Present will be my sister and her husband (they live in North Brunswick), my bride's sister (Hackensack) and her boyfriend (Westwood). All of them will be driving down on Friday morning.

I now see that the National Weather Service says there is a 30%-40% chance of snow on Thursday night and Friday in all of these places. Interestingly enough, the NWS mentions an accumulation amount (1-2 inches) only for Cherry Hill. My fiancee tells me that this storm is supposed to be off Long Island.

I know that three days out is too long for a reliable snow forecast. But I'd appreciate it if the weather mavens could follow the situation and update when possible on what the weather is likely to be. Thanks to all of you who know about weather forecasting.
Click to expand...
Congrats on getting married!
 
camdenlawprof said:
I am getting married this Friday, the 6th. It will be a very small ceremony at my home in Cherry Hill. Present will be my sister and her husband (they live in North Brunswick), my bride's sister (Hackensack) and her boyfriend (Westwood). All of them will be driving down on Friday morning.

I now see that the National Weather Service says there is a 30%-40% chance of snow on Thursday night and Friday in all of these places. Interestingly enough, the NWS mentions an accumulation amount (1-2 inches) only for Cherry Hill. My fiancee tells me that this storm is supposed to be off Long Island.

I know that three days out is too long for a reliable snow forecast. But I'd appreciate it if the weather mavens could follow the situation and update when possible on what the weather is likely to be. Thanks to all of you who know about weather forecasting.
Click to expand...

Congrats!
 
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camdenlawprof said:
I am getting married this Friday, the 6th. It will be a very small ceremony at my home in Cherry Hill. Present will be my sister and her husband (they live in North Brunswick), my bride's sister (Hackensack) and her boyfriend (Westwood). All of them will be driving down on Friday morning.

I now see that the National Weather Service says there is a 30%-40% chance of snow on Thursday night and Friday in all of these places. Interestingly enough, the NWS mentions an accumulation amount (1-2 inches) only for Cherry Hill. My fiancee tells me that this storm is supposed to be off Long Island.

I know that three days out is too long for a reliable snow forecast. But I'd appreciate it if the weather mavens could follow the situation and update when possible on what the weather is likely to be. Thanks to all of you who know about weather forecasting.
Click to expand...
Congrats!!!!!!!!!!
 
Congrats!! Was also debating starting a thread on the two threats. For your wedding day in Cherry Hill, I'd say there's at least a decent chance of an inch or two of snow late Thursday into Friday morning. This one's going to be a close call. Could be 2-4" on the DelMarVa, 1-2" in South Jersey and in coastal Ocean/Monmouth and very little N/W of I-95, from Trenton northward.

Obviously, though, a 50-75 mile track shift and there's either very little snow in Cherry Hill or 2-4" of snow. Unfortunately, for your event, though, Friday morning would likely be the worst conditions, if accumulating snow makes it to CH and further north, since whatever falls will accumulate with temps in the mid/upper-20s before sunrise and only rising into the low 30s during the day. Good luck.

The second storm, Sat night into Sunday, is likely to be a much bigger storm, but as of now, it looks like it'll be far enough offshore to not impact our area that much. However, we're still 4-5 days out and some pros and models are calling for significant snow to make it as far NW as the I-95 corridor. Stay tuned.

StormTotalSnowWeb1.png
 
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zappaa said:
Congrats on getting married, marrying young I see. Have a great day sir.
Kind of a special day for me also:
I'm having a colonoscopy
Click to expand...

I've had those. When I went in to the office, the receptionist said to me, "Congratulations! You're past the hard part!" I hope your exam goes well.
 
Models are trending for a snowfall for the entire region although just a glancing blow....we could see up to inch or so fall in northern and central jersey and a 1-3 inches in south jersey toward the coast. The NAM wants to up these totals but mets do not seem to be buying it yet. Snow will start Thursday night into Friday and the main show will be 1AM-9AM as it stands now.

Saturday also brings another possible snow event. Its going to depend on whether the southern stream can interact with the northern stream.
 
Shop Rite in Hillsborough is jammed packed. Weather report must have gone out. One inch will close schools. Oh wait..........it's the annual Can Can sale.
 
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Sound like I need to start thinking about stocking up on milk, eggs and bread.
 
Models still showing variability, but remember, we're talking about relatively small differences in the big picture. Problem is there's a much bigger difference in impact between 0" and 1" than there is between 1" and 2", yet the forecast uncertainty/range is the same in both cases.

For this particular "storm" it's very likely that everyone in NJ gets at least a 1/2" (except maybe far NWNJ) of snow sometime between 1 and 7 am Friday, which, with temps in the mid/upper 20s, during Friday rush hour, will mean difficult travel with snow on all but treated and heavily traveled roads. Still looking like the I-95 corridor will see maybe an inch of snow and that we'll likely see up to 2-3" as one heads towards the coast - and it's still possible those 2-3" amounts move towards the I-95 corridor.
 
Americanwx is a train wreck. They let that pompous ass PBGFI get away with everything. The mods seem to protect and allow certain things but are hypocritical on others. For example they are allowing 3 threads for this one event to have discussion...and they are allowing total ridiculous banter..actually an argument between PB and two other posters, one of whom is a met over who was right about the cold snap. Thats banter stuff but the mod BXengine allows is to go on, such a hypocrite and its really killing that board.

anyway PB is predicting pretty big amounts of snow for both storms combined even if the models are not, he extrapolates to the worst case scenerio, lets see if he is right. I believe the Euro was not on board for the storm on Saturday
 
RU848789 said:
Models still showing variability, but remember, we're talking about relatively small differences in the big picture. Problem is there's a much bigger difference in impact between 0" and 1" than there is between 1" and 2", yet the forecast uncertainty/range is the same in both cases.

For this particular "storm" it's very likely that everyone in NJ gets at least a 1/2" (except maybe far NWNJ) of snow sometime between 1 and 7 am Friday, which, with temps in the mid/upper 20s, during Friday rush hour, will mean difficult travel with snow on all but treated and heavily traveled roads. Still looking like the I-95 corridor will see maybe an inch of snow and that we'll likely see up to 2-3" as one heads towards the coast - and it's still possible those 2-3" amounts move towards the I-95 corridor.
Click to expand...

I haven't been to the office since mid December and was planning on going in Friday, I'll take anything over an inch so I have an excuse to work from home.
 
latest info from the NWS Mt Holly website

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...ACCUMULATING SNOW OF 1-3
INCHES IS FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TOWARD THE COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED ROADS AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS
WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. Any weddings planned for the Cherry Hill area should immediately be
canceled. At this point in time we are suggesting that it not be rescheduled. Ever.

SATURDAY...A STORM OFFSHORE COULD TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER WITH THE DETAILS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM.
 
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zappaa said:
Congrats on getting married, marrying young I see. Have a great day sir.
Kind of a special day for me also:
I'm having a colonoscopy
Click to expand...

Your day will be less painful in the long run ... HAAAA!

But seriously, congratulations and have a great day! A little snow will only make it more memorable, but I love snow so ymmv.
 
Isn't there suppose to be another one this weekend? Any news on that one or too early to tell at this point?
 
bac2therac said:
Americanwx is a train wreck. They let that pompous ass PBGFI get away with everything. The mods seem to protect and allow certain things but are hypocritical on others. For example they are allowing 3 threads for this one event to have discussion...and they are allowing total ridiculous banter..actually an argument between PB and two other posters, one of whom is a met over who was right about the cold snap. Thats banter stuff but the mod BXengine allows is to go on, such a hypocrite and its really killing that board.

anyway PB is predicting pretty big amounts of snow for both storms combined even if the models are not, he extrapolates to the worst case scenerio, lets see if he is right. I believe the Euro was not on board for the storm on Saturday
Click to expand...
He knows his stuff, but he always leans to the solution with the most snow. Definitely biased and argumentative.
 
newell138 said:
latest info from the NWS Mt Holly website

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...ACCUMULATING SNOW OF 1-3
INCHES IS FORECAST WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS TOWARD THE COAST.
THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOW COVERED ROADS AND SLIPPERY CONDITIONS
WITH POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. Any weddings planned for the Cherry Hill area should immediately be
canceled. At this point in time we are suggesting that it not be rescheduled. Ever.

SATURDAY...A STORM OFFSHORE COULD TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER WITH THE DETAILS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY OF THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM.
Click to expand...

Dude - funny, but you needed to put the bold part in caps, so, you know, camden would really believe the NWS was recommending cancelling his wedding, lol. I did something like that on the old EasternWx board, just saying that it was going to be 60F with no chance of flurries instead of 35F and possible flurries, and they got pretty mad (I thought it was an obvious joke, but they weren't in a laughing mood).
 
RU848789 said:
Models still showing variability, but remember, we're talking about relatively small differences in the big picture. Problem is there's a much bigger difference in impact between 0" and 1" than there is between 1" and 2", yet the forecast uncertainty/range is the same in both cases.

For this particular "storm" it's very likely that everyone in NJ gets at least a 1/2" (except maybe far NWNJ) of snow sometime between 1 and 7 am Friday, which, with temps in the mid/upper 20s, during Friday rush hour, will mean difficult travel with snow on all but treated and heavily traveled roads. Still looking like the I-95 corridor will see maybe an inch of snow and that we'll likely see up to 2-3" as one heads towards the coast - and it's still possible those 2-3" amounts move towards the I-95 corridor.
Click to expand...

Updated map is out and they did extend the up to 1" line well to the N/W of I-95, as I thought they might given the models this afternoon. Still not a big deal, but as I said above even 1/2" of non-melting snow on roads can be a shitshow around these parts on a rush hour morning. NWS-NYC maps are now out, also and you can see that they're a little less bullish on the 1" area extending north of the Raritan, really (whereas the 1" line is a bit north of 78 on the NWS-Philly map). Those are small, but important differences.

StormTotalSnowWeb1.png


StormTotalSnowWeb1.png
 
Scarlet_Scourge said:
Isn't there suppose to be another one this weekend? Any news on that one or too early to tell at this point?
Click to expand...


as of now its to far south and out to sea, coastal and southern jersey could see a light period of snow...models can change but as of now its looking like a no for the storm
 
RUPete said:
He knows his stuff, but he always leans to the solution with the most snow. Definitely biased and argumentative.
Click to expand...


now even guys like Bluewave and Allsnow who usually are on his side are taking him to task. I cant believe with two albeit minor events to track that the mod is allowing the arguing to play out like that.
 
RU848789 said:
Updated map is out and they did extend the up to 1" line well to the N/W of I-95, as I thought they might given the models this afternoon. Still not a big deal, but as I said above even 1/2" of non-melting snow on roads can be a shitshow around these parts on a rush hour morning. NWS-NYC maps are now out, also and you can see that they're a little less bullish on the 1" area extending north of the Raritan, really (whereas the 1" line is a bit north of 78 on the NWS-Philly map). Those are small, but important differences.

StormTotalSnowWeb1.png


StormTotalSnowWeb1.png
Click to expand...


yeah an inch looks pretty good for most at least and going up to 2 in parts of central and south jersey and even 3 near the coast. I think they saw they expect a thin area of enhanced snow and its always tricky to see where that sets up and where the lollipops of higher amounts accumulate.

Ratios could up amounts as well as it might not be the usual 10-1, maybe 15-1, it will be light and powdery and easy to shovel or sweep away...we can iron out the details tomorrow. Its not going to be a big event but with it falling between 1-9AM it really will be a big impact on the morning rush.
 
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