OT-Will it Snow on Friday?
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Looks like 1-2 will be the general early call for this event...lee goldberg tonight had 1-2 from north to central jersey and NYC with 2-3 amounts toward the shore, LI and southeastern jersey
NAM was amped tonight but on the flip side the RGEM was drier. GFS continues with its 1-2.
a possible shift in timing though with the models, Lee on his futurecast had snow overspreading much of the region by midnight and would be tapering off by 6AM except for the eastern sections. Should that happen it should really lessen the impact on travel somewhat so by midmorning all the main and secondary roads would be pretty clear albeit its going to stay cold so there will be icy patches on the less traveled roads.
NAM was amped tonight but on the flip side the RGEM was drier. GFS continues with its 1-2.
a possible shift in timing though with the models, Lee on his futurecast had snow overspreading much of the region by midnight and would be tapering off by 6AM except for the eastern sections. Should that happen it should really lessen the impact on travel somewhat so by midmorning all the main and secondary roads would be pretty clear albeit its going to stay cold so there will be icy patches on the less traveled roads.
Weddings, colonoscopies, and weather predictions.
What we need is the best scene in the history of the silver screen:
And congratulations Camden, and my sympathies, Zap! May the day go "smoothly" for both of you!
And Moms Skillethead says, "Bottoms up to both!"
What we need is the best scene in the history of the silver screen:
And congratulations Camden, and my sympathies, Zap! May the day go "smoothly" for both of you!
And Moms Skillethead says, "Bottoms up to both!"
Red sun in the morning, sailor take warning. Here it comes!
Wow, never thought of candle sticks for a wedding gift! [laughing]
Congrats on the wedding.
Wow, never thought of candle sticks for a wedding gift! [laughing]
Congrats on the wedding.
Looking like an area-wide 1-2" of snow with the 2" amounts (and locally up to 3") generally to the SE of I-95 and the 1" amounts to the NW of I-95, although once one gets to the NYC metro area only an inch or so is forecast, even to the SE of 95 (i.e., SI/LI). Also, the snow should mainly fall before 6 am on Friday, so the snow should be over before the morning commute, which would lessen the impact a bit, although the snow will have no problem accumulating with temps below freezing everywhere until mid/late morning. The Mt. Holly discussion is below, along with updated snowfall maps. The Sat afternoon/evening threat is looking to be very unlikely now, except maybe for the DelMarVa and far SE NJ, where maybe an inch or so might fall - this could still change, but time is running out for that system to impact our area.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Low pressure is forecast to develop off the coast of the
Carolinas late today. It is expected to move northeastward and it
should be centered about 250 miles off the coast of Maryland
around daybreak on Friday.
Moisture is expected to overspread our region from the west and
south tonight. Temperatures will be cold enough for snow except in
parts of southern Delaware and far southern New Jersey where a
little rain may occur before a change to snow.
The leading edge of the steady precipitation is anticipated to
push northeastward through our region between about 8:00 PM and
11:00 PM. It may arrive around Chesapeake Bay a little earlier
than that. We are expecting a relatively quick shot of light snow
overnight with most locations receiving an inch or two. The back
edge of the precipitation should work its way from west to east
across eastern Pennsylvania, northeastern Maryland, Delaware and
New Jersey between about 4:00 AM and 6:00 AM. It appears as though
the accumulating snow will end before the morning commute on
Friday. The wind is forecast to become light and variable during
the snow event.
We will not be issuing a Winter Weather Advisory at this time
with forecast amounts remaining below our criteria at most
locations and with the snow ending before the morning commute. The
criteria are 3 inches from Berks County to central New Jersey
northward and 2 inches from the Philadelphia metropolitan area and
southern New Jersey southward. Of course, we will re-evaluate this
decision during the day.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Low pressure is forecast to develop off the coast of the
Carolinas late today. It is expected to move northeastward and it
should be centered about 250 miles off the coast of Maryland
around daybreak on Friday.
Moisture is expected to overspread our region from the west and
south tonight. Temperatures will be cold enough for snow except in
parts of southern Delaware and far southern New Jersey where a
little rain may occur before a change to snow.
The leading edge of the steady precipitation is anticipated to
push northeastward through our region between about 8:00 PM and
11:00 PM. It may arrive around Chesapeake Bay a little earlier
than that. We are expecting a relatively quick shot of light snow
overnight with most locations receiving an inch or two. The back
edge of the precipitation should work its way from west to east
across eastern Pennsylvania, northeastern Maryland, Delaware and
New Jersey between about 4:00 AM and 6:00 AM. It appears as though
the accumulating snow will end before the morning commute on
Friday. The wind is forecast to become light and variable during
the snow event.
We will not be issuing a Winter Weather Advisory at this time
with forecast amounts remaining below our criteria at most
locations and with the snow ending before the morning commute. The
criteria are 3 inches from Berks County to central New Jersey
northward and 2 inches from the Philadelphia metropolitan area and
southern New Jersey southward. Of course, we will re-evaluate this
decision during the day.
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Frank Lombardo WCTC says snow starting before midnight say 8/9 pm and ending tomorrow morning with 1 inch in Somerset County to 3 inches in Monmouth county.
Easy to read :
"Forecasters are calling for snow to begin falling after 8 p.m. Thursday evening in southwestern New Jersey and work its way north. Expect about two inches to fall across most of the state before it winds down before the morning rush gets going on Friday."
"The potential exists for as much as four inches to accumulate along the Shore and in the Philadelphia suburbs, but that's a less likely scenario, the National Weather Service says.
http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf...g_in_nj.html#incart_2box_nj-homepage-featured
"Forecasters are calling for snow to begin falling after 8 p.m. Thursday evening in southwestern New Jersey and work its way north. Expect about two inches to fall across most of the state before it winds down before the morning rush gets going on Friday."
"The potential exists for as much as four inches to accumulate along the Shore and in the Philadelphia suburbs, but that's a less likely scenario, the National Weather Service says.
http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf...g_in_nj.html#incart_2box_nj-homepage-featured
The forecasts for individual towns still show snow persisting in some areas through the morning hours. How can I get an update on the 2:35 a.m. forecast shown above?
the liklihood is snow is over for most by 6 AM. Its basically a 6 hour snowfall starting a little before midnight now. Also some short term models are indicating that there will be a heavier band where you will get the lollipops of 3 inches, that area on the models looks to be shifting a bit toward central jersey so we shall have to watch that..here is the latest disco from Mt Holly
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
930 AM Update...We are in the process of analyzing the incoming
12Z model guidance. Hourly temps, PoPs and Wx grids were already
updated for tonight and are included in the 930 AM ESTF. We
anticipate sending out an updated snowfall map and issue any
winter weather advisories before noon. The 12Z NAM, latest RAP and
HRRRx (which goes out far enough to capture the entire event)
indicate a band of heavier snowfall (2-3") that develops late this
evening near the Mason-Dixon line in SE PA/N Delmarva and expands
northeastward into central NJ overnight. We continue to see a
trend to the northwest with the placement of the mesoscale snow
band. Additionally, the models show a local min in precip between
this leading snow band to the north and heavier precip offshore,
which is where we previously forecast the axis of heavier snowfall
to occur. A period of moderate snow on the western edge of the
precip shield from the coastal low may occur late tonight or early
Friday morning over coastal NJ but it`s still a very close call.
Previous Discussion...
Low pressure is forecast to develop off the coast of the
Carolinas late today. It is expected to move northeastward and it
should be centered about 250 miles off the coast of Maryland
around daybreak on Friday.
Moisture is expected to overspread our region from the west and
south tonight. Temperatures will be cold enough for snow except in
parts of southern Delaware and far southern New Jersey where a
little rain may occur before a change to snow.
The leading edge of the steady precipitation is anticipated to
push northeastward through our region between about 8:00 PM and
11:00 PM. It may arrive around Chesapeake Bay a little earlier
than that. We are expecting a relatively quick shot of light snow
overnight with most locations receiving an inch or two. The back
edge of the precipitation should work its way from west to east
across eastern Pennsylvania, northeastern Maryland, Delaware and
New Jersey between about 4:00 AM and 6:00 AM. It appears as though
the accumulating snow will end before the morning commute on
Friday. The wind is forecast to become light and variable during
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
930 AM Update...We are in the process of analyzing the incoming
12Z model guidance. Hourly temps, PoPs and Wx grids were already
updated for tonight and are included in the 930 AM ESTF. We
anticipate sending out an updated snowfall map and issue any
winter weather advisories before noon. The 12Z NAM, latest RAP and
HRRRx (which goes out far enough to capture the entire event)
indicate a band of heavier snowfall (2-3") that develops late this
evening near the Mason-Dixon line in SE PA/N Delmarva and expands
northeastward into central NJ overnight. We continue to see a
trend to the northwest with the placement of the mesoscale snow
band. Additionally, the models show a local min in precip between
this leading snow band to the north and heavier precip offshore,
which is where we previously forecast the axis of heavier snowfall
to occur. A period of moderate snow on the western edge of the
precip shield from the coastal low may occur late tonight or early
Friday morning over coastal NJ but it`s still a very close call.
Previous Discussion...
Low pressure is forecast to develop off the coast of the
Carolinas late today. It is expected to move northeastward and it
should be centered about 250 miles off the coast of Maryland
around daybreak on Friday.
Moisture is expected to overspread our region from the west and
south tonight. Temperatures will be cold enough for snow except in
parts of southern Delaware and far southern New Jersey where a
little rain may occur before a change to snow.
The leading edge of the steady precipitation is anticipated to
push northeastward through our region between about 8:00 PM and
11:00 PM. It may arrive around Chesapeake Bay a little earlier
than that. We are expecting a relatively quick shot of light snow
overnight with most locations receiving an inch or two. The back
edge of the precipitation should work its way from west to east
across eastern Pennsylvania, northeastern Maryland, Delaware and
New Jersey between about 4:00 AM and 6:00 AM. It appears as though
the accumulating snow will end before the morning commute on
Friday. The wind is forecast to become light and variable during
Meanwhile while things were looking grim for snow weenies for wave 2 on Saturday night....the 12Z NAM just brought back the storm further northwest which verbatim gives us "some" snow. NAM is the outlier but lets see if anything changes with todays model suites as we still have wiggle room to move this puppy north. 12z GFS appears to be a miss still.
Guy who repaired my snow blower told me 3"-5" for NE Middlesex county. I asked him if the models changed because the last heard was maybe an inch...lol. I told him I'd pick up the snow blower tomorrow but maybe I should get it tonight.
NWS in Philly becoming more confident in snowfall, as bac posted with the updated discussion. As a result, they've now issued winter weather advisories for Mercer/Middlesex and all counties south of there in SE PA and NJ (and DE) and issued an updated map as of ~11 am. Still expect the snowfall to be over by 3 am near Philly and 6 am in Central Jersey.
Note that with mesoscale banding being likely (similar to summertime thunderstorms, where convective forces become primary), pinpointing the heavier bands is nearly impossible. In scenarios like this, some small areas (like part of a couple of counties) could get 3-5" of snow, while everyone around them could get 1-3" of snow.
Also, the 2nd system on Saturday is being shown as a bit closer to us with measurable snow now in some models for South Jersey and the coast of NJ and for LI and perhaps a coating towards I-95. While the smart money is for little to no impact for the Phllly to NYC corridor (except far SE NJ), there's still time and room for the system to move further NW and provide some impact for most of us. Stay tuned.
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter weather advisory
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
8 PM AND 11 PM THIS EVENING. THE SNOW BECOMES STEADY AND
MODERATE AT TIMES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN QUICKLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
Note that with mesoscale banding being likely (similar to summertime thunderstorms, where convective forces become primary), pinpointing the heavier bands is nearly impossible. In scenarios like this, some small areas (like part of a couple of counties) could get 3-5" of snow, while everyone around them could get 1-3" of snow.
Also, the 2nd system on Saturday is being shown as a bit closer to us with measurable snow now in some models for South Jersey and the coast of NJ and for LI and perhaps a coating towards I-95. While the smart money is for little to no impact for the Phllly to NYC corridor (except far SE NJ), there's still time and room for the system to move further NW and provide some impact for most of us. Stay tuned.
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter weather advisory
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY
* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
8 PM AND 11 PM THIS EVENING. THE SNOW BECOMES STEADY AND
MODERATE AT TIMES LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN QUICKLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 3 AM AND 6 AM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
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WWAdvisories were posted at 11:13 am for Middlesex/Mercer/Bucks and all points south of there. Still don't think anyone needs a snowblower for this - probably will use the push broom, myself, as I'm sure I'll be up in the wee hours measuring, walking around and shoveling and the broom is silent.
3" down the shore. The MILFs from Hillsborough Deli will be making a road trip to Bar A in Lake Como for Ladies Night.
Our new coach is going to greatly influence the overall tone of the tailgate lots, I believe.
I am getting a little worried about the forecast. The NWS in Mount Holly thinks the snow in South and Central New Jersey will end by 6 a.m. The New York/North Jersey office is thinking that the snow will be "mainly" over by 9, which means the morning rush hour is going to be affected. Two of our guests are from New Brunswick and are therefore in the Mount Holly area, but the other two are from Westwood and Hackensack, both in the NYC area.
You just wanted us to know you were getting married but that none of us made the final cut. :stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:May every day be a honeymoon...
I assume you're not getting married at 10 am, which would then mean that nobody is leaving, even from North Jersey, before 9 am. By 9 am, any accumulating snow will be over in NYC/North Jersey and well over south of there (should be over by 6-7 am in NB and 4-5 am in Cherry Hill). And every major highway will be in good shape by 9 am, given traffic, salt and the snow being over with.
So, I honestly wouldn't worry much unless someone is leaving at 7 am and traveling many miles on back roads - and even then, there will be less snow in North Jersey than Central/South. I'm pretty sure your guests won't have too much trouble from Westwood and Hackensack, which are very close to the Parkway/TPK. Now, rush hour on any Friday sucks and with some snow on the secondary roads, rush hour (especially before 8 am and south of NB) will likely suck a little more. Certainly, by 10-11 am things will be in great shape everywhere, except maybe unsalted and unplowed neighborhood streets.
Thanks! Our plan is to marry at 11. That would mean that the two Hackensack/Westwood guests will be leaving at 8:30. As you say, they will be on the Parkway/Tpk. By the time they get here, Cherry Hill will be fine, and anyway I'm not far from I-295. The worst that will happen will be that the ceremony will have to happen a little bit late.
Where in Cherry Hill? From when I was about 14 until I was about 25 my dad lived at Uxbridge Townhouses, just off 561, with his 2nd wife and then later with another live-in SO after getting his 2nd divorce - he kept trying to get it right, lol. Anyway, it was right around the corner from Kaminski's, our favorite place to eat pub food and watch football games when I was a teenager; before I went to RU, I grew up in Washington Twp, about 15 minutes south of Cherry Hill. And my mom used to work at Langston (they used to make corrugated cardboard machinery, but eventually got taken over by someone) on Burnt Mill Road in Cherry Hill.
Good to see the MILFS of Hillborough remain in state.....
I live in the Woodcrest section, a mile from Haddonfield-Berlin Road. Uxbridge is not far from me and I pass it often on my way to Haddonfield. The widow of a deceased colleague lived there for a while, and there was also some Philadelphia Eagle living there who eventually went to jail for rape. Kaminski's is still there; not being a drinker, I have never been inside. I would not consider Washington Township fifteen minutes from Cherry Hill, but possibly you did it by jet!
Snow is accumulating a bit from 276/195 and points south (although much of interior South Jersey is dry), as per reports and the radar is pretty lit up near/along that line, too. But this is just an app - the main snow should be in Central Jersey soon and will be a quick hitter.
