OT-Will it Snow on Friday?
- Thread starter retired711
- Start date
There was much less snow on pavement areas than grass...some of the places we went to had only a half inch on pavement...temps were way warmer than advertised in the upper 20s and the rate was light and ground warm
I got up this morning expecting up to 3-4". Nada on the ground. Maybe 1/2 inch on the deck.
Where do you live (or who do you listen to) that made you expect 3-4"? This was a 1-3" event and dropped 1-3" as advertised.
Last night News12 was saying 1-3 with a strong possibility of more on the coast. The coast is across the street.
On another note, I'm clean as a whistle
That certainly wasn't true before 5 am, when it was snowing - I measured the same amounts on grass, driveway, sidewalk, street and car through the night and I doubt Metuchen was "special" in that regard (temps were mid/upper 20s statewide). Sure, once roads get traveled on they're going to look like less and definitely, once the sun came up and hit some bare pavement, melting was quick, even with temps below 32F, which they were, statewide before 9-10 am (and still are for much of NJ).
Not in the least - I just don't like people touted as experts who are clearly not experts; as part of that I don't think non-degreed weather people should be allowed to be called meteorologists. I'm 99% sure I know more about meteorology than Amy Freeze or Mike Woods, but you don't see me claiming to be a meteorologist.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amy_Freeze
Freeze has certificate number 111 from the American Meteorological Society as a certified broadcast meteorologist – she was one of the first 20 women in the world to receive this certification. In addition, Freeze has her National Weather Association and American Meteorological Society Seals of Approval. She is a three-time National Academy of Television Arts and SciencesEmmy Award winner.[citation needed]
still sounds like you are jelly....do not know what your issue is, but the public hardly wants to see an unattractive geek spout on about a whole bunch of terms they have no use for, thats why other mets work behind the scenes and she is front and center. Amy is pleasasnt and photogenic and personable and does stuff for the community and I think she is a minx and she knows her stuff, she isnt stupid, even if she cannot meet your standards. Also note that Channel 7 has a team of meteorologists that confer with each on forecasting.
As for Mike Woods, anyone who can stay in the business at one station doing the weather for like 20 years is a success story in the weather field especially in the biggest market in the world
Freeze has certificate number 111 from the American Meteorological Society as a certified broadcast meteorologist – she was one of the first 20 women in the world to receive this certification. In addition, Freeze has her National Weather Association and American Meteorological Society Seals of Approval. She is a three-time National Academy of Television Arts and SciencesEmmy Award winner.[citation needed]
still sounds like you are jelly....do not know what your issue is, but the public hardly wants to see an unattractive geek spout on about a whole bunch of terms they have no use for, thats why other mets work behind the scenes and she is front and center. Amy is pleasasnt and photogenic and personable and does stuff for the community and I think she is a minx and she knows her stuff, she isnt stupid, even if she cannot meet your standards. Also note that Channel 7 has a team of meteorologists that confer with each on forecasting.
As for Mike Woods, anyone who can stay in the business at one station doing the weather for like 20 years is a success story in the weather field especially in the biggest market in the world
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NWS Philly and NYC updated their snowfall maps. Still major model mayhem with the Euro/UK (2 best models) showing 2-4" for most of the I-95 corridor and more towards the Shore/LI (and less NW), while the GFS and Canadian don't show much at all for I-95. That's why this stuff is so fascinating to me (and probably infuriating to others). Maps kind of split the difference. We'll see. Gotta run.
this was at 6 AM around Somerset County....1.5 inches grass in most places..pavement ws generally half that...talk to allsnow, he also noticed that in his lots
jersey shore was supposed to be the sweet spot with the lollipops of 2-3 or even 4 possible. Forecast for the shore areas seem to bust as the lollipop band was narrower and seemed to gravitate over RU #s house
I'm sorry, I didn't realize you spoke for the entire public. You may want that and maybe more people want that than don't, but I don't and it has nothing to do with jealousy and everything to do with competence and false advertising. And that has nothing to do with whether she's a hard worker, attractive (I don't think so) or the nicest person in the world. I'm only commenting on her professional credentials, which are lacking.
and this looks to start tomorrow morning, details havent been pinned down because alot is going to be about radar trends and watching to see how far that precip shield can move and north and west and overspread the area and not get eat up by dry air.
in the past Ive seen these systems progged to hit south jersey and AC with the bullseye struggle to make an impact north of Trenton so we will see what happens.
the rush begins to Shop Rite, I actually think people may get caught off guard thinking this will be a nighttime event
in the past Ive seen these systems progged to hit south jersey and AC with the bullseye struggle to make an impact north of Trenton so we will see what happens.
the rush begins to Shop Rite, I actually think people may get caught off guard thinking this will be a nighttime event
Have you noticed this seems to happen with uncanny regularity?
Dan Zarrow reported this morning that the most he from this storm was 2.50 in Gloucester County. How did 2.75 end up in Metuchen. Something is fishy.
"State of Emergency" issued here in NC by new Gov Roy Cooper, whose inaugural events have been altered due to weather. Here in the Pinehurst area, residents have been comically scurrying about, stocking up on provisions, since midday yesterday. School early dismissals today. Area ABC stores (state-run liquor shops) bustling. Expecting 3" to 5" of accumulation Friday overnight into Saturday afternoon. Some models showing more, some less---but isn't that always the case, with models?
First time we've ever had the most snow of anyone in the area, as far as I can recall - that's why I made a big deal out of it on AmericanWx. There are known snow inflaters on AmericanWx and I'm definitely not one of them. I'm guessing you weren't looking for this level of detail, but I'll say it anyway: I do tend to have a bit higher amounts than folks within 10-15 miles of me on storms where measuring the snowfall at it's max is important, i.e., when compaction or melting sets in very quickly - that's more a function of being a nut about measuring frequently, at least when I'm at home.
Also, somebody on social media reported 2.4" from Metuchen at 8 am, which makes perfect sense as my 2.75" at 5 am was down to 2.5" at around 8 am, due to compaction. That's where measuring at the end of the snowfall makes a difference, vs. 3-4 hours later.
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Like I said, 1-3" was the general forecast for the area and yes, the shore was supposed to receive towards the higher end which didn't seem to pan out. Nobody in the area should have expected 3-4" from this storm. I'm not sure the average Joe understands just how hard it is to forecast snow in our area in general, much less to try to pinpoint who will get 2" of snow vs who will get 1" or 3" (you wouldn't notice the difference if it was rain). There have been plenty of "busted" winter storm forecasts but this wasn't one of them.
So people actually have the reported data from all of NJ. These are unfiltered. Also, Central Park, JFK, and LGA were all 1.1-1.2", while EWR was 1.6" and Philly was 1.9". Greatest amount I saw was 4.7" on eastern LI.
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1200 PM EST FRI JAN 06 2017
THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN FOR THE STORM THAT
AFFECTED OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO
HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND
MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME
PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************
LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT
NEW JERSEY
...ATLANTIC COUNTY...
3 WSW HAMMONTON 1.5 900 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
ATLANTIC CITY INTL A 1.0 700 AM 1/06 ASOS
MAYS LANDING 1.0 1000 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
HAMMONTON 1.0 700 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
ESTELL MANOR 0.8 746 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
SCULLVILLE 0.7 500 AM 1/06 METEOROLOGIST
...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
2 E BURLINGTON 2.4 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
BURLINGTON 2.4 630 AM 1/06 NWS EMPLOYEE
FLORENCE 2.3 400 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
CINNAMINSON 2.0 800 AM 1/06 0.12 WATER EQUIVALENT
1 ESE CINNAMINSON TW 2.0 730 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
CROSSWICKS 2.0 604 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
MOUNT HOLLY WFO 2.0 420 AM 1/06 NWS OFFICE
1 SE MOORESTOWN TWP 2.0 807 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
3 ENE MOUNT LAUREL T 1.8 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
MOUNT LAUREL 1.8 900 AM 1/06 RETIRED MET
HAINESPORT 1.7 700 AM 1/06 RETIRED MET
1 SW HAINESPORT TWP 1.7 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 W MEDFORD LAKES 1.2 830 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
MEDFORD 1.1 530 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
2 SSE MEDFORD TWP 1.0 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...CAMDEN COUNTY...
GLOUCESTER CITY 2.5 420 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
CHERRY HILL 2.3 300 AM 1/06 PUBLIC
1 ESE MERCHANTVILLE 1.9 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
LINDENWOLD 1.8 1000 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SW BERLIN 1.6 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
SOMERDALE 1.5 1100 AM 1/06 CO-OP OBSERVER
4 W WINSLOW TWP 1.2 730 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
NNE MOUNT EPHRAIM 1.0 839 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...CAPE MAY COUNTY...
TUCKAHOE 0.5 700 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
SEAVILLE 0.3 600 AM 1/06 AMATEUR RADIO
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE 0.3 845 AM 1/06 AMATEUR RADIO
WILDWOOD CREST 0.1 820 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
2 SW UPPER DEERFIELD 1.0 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...GLOUCESTER COUNTY...
MANTUA 2.0 740 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
W PITMAN 1.8 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
WILLIAMSTOWN 1.6 915 AM 1/06 AMATEUR RADIO
3 W FRANKLIN TWP 1.5 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
WASHINGTON TWP 1.5 500 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 NNW MONROE TWP 1.3 900 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
2 NW ELK TWP 1.2 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
E FLEMINGTON 1.6 630 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 N FRENCHTOWN 1.5 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
4 NNW STOCKTON 1.5 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
2 E FLEMINGTON 1.4 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
2 SE FLEMINGTON 1.3 630 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
2 SE READINGTON TWP 1.2 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
3 NNE GLEN GARDNER 1.1 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
2 ENE CLINTON 1.1 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
READINGTON TWP 1.1 410 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 SW LEBANON 1.0 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 S BETHLEHEM TWP 1.0 530 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 E LEBANON 1.0 645 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
N LAMBERTVILLE 1.0 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
4 N CLINTON TWP 1.0 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
3 NNE HOLLAND TWP 1.0 645 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
3 N LEBANON 1.0 540 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...MERCER COUNTY...
2 NW HOPEWELL TWP 2.5 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
EWING TWP 2.3 445 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 NE HAMILTON TWP 2.1 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
EWING 2.1 800 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
2 E PRINCETON 2.0 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 ENE PENNINGTON 2.0 830 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
2 WSW ROBBINSVILLE T 2.0 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
5 SW HOPEWELL TWP 1.9 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 ESE LAWRENCE TWP 1.8 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
2 SE HOPEWELL 1.7 730 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
LAWRENCE 1.5 806 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
SSW HOPEWELL 1.5 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
2 SSW LAWRENCE TWP 1.5 645 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
METUCHEN 2.4 800 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
2 W NORTH BRUNSWICK 2.1 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 WSW CARTERET 2.0 540 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
PORT READING 2.0 315 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 NW SOUTH BRUNSWICK 2.0 900 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
WOODBRIDGE 2.0 827 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
EDISON 2.0 500 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
1 NNE WOODBRIDGE TWP 2.0 430 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 ESE WOODBRIDGE TWP 1.8 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
SOUTH PLAINFIELD 1.8 900 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 E NEW BRUNSWICK 1.8 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
3 NNE EAST BRUNSWICK 1.7 900 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 SW CRANBURY TWP 1.5 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 ESE SPOTSWOOD 1.5 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
EAST BRUNSWICK 1.5 155 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
5 NE OLD BRIDGE TWP 1.1 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
OLD BRIDGE 1.0 1000 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
WSW SOUTH RIVER 1.0 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
FREEHOLD 1.5 800 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 S UPPER FREEHOLD T 1.2 830 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
FREEHOLD TWP 1.0 600 AM 1/06 METEOROLOGIST
HOWELL TWP 0.8 730 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
COLTS NECK 0.5 744 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
LONG BRANCH 0.5 1000 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
...MORRIS COUNTY...
2 WSW LONG HILL TWP 1.2 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
ROCKAWAY 0.9 520 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
ROXBURY TWP 0.5 700 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
SUCCASUNNA 0.5 530 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
...OCEAN COUNTY...
6 E LACEY TWP 1.1 530 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
TOMS RIVER 1.0 400 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
FORKED RIVER 1.0 810 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
3 SSE BERKELEY TWP 1.0 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
BAYVILLE 1.0 915 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 SSE TOMS RIVER TWP 1.0 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
5 N LITTLE EGG HARBO 1.0 500 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
HERBERTSVILLE 0.5 640 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
BEACH HAVEN 0.5 845 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
JACKSON TWP 0.5 915 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
WHITING 0.5 530 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
BRICK TWP 0.5 630 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
...SALEM COUNTY...
1 NW WOODSTOWN 1.7 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...SOMERSET COUNTY...
4 ENE FRANKLIN TWP 2.2 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
4 SE HILLSBOROUGH TW 2.1 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
5 NNW FRANKLIN TWP 2.1 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
5 ESE HILLSBOROUGH T 2.0 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
3 NE FRANKLIN TWP 1.9 600 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
3 NE MONTGOMERY TWP 1.8 815 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
4 NNW FRANKLIN TWP 1.7 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
WARREN TWP 1.6 900 AM 1/06 METEOROLOGIST
ENE SOMERVILLE 1.5 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
2 SSE WARREN TWP 1.5 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 NNW BERNARDS TWP 1.5 600 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
BASKING RIDGE 1.3 630 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
3 NW BRIDGEWATER TWP 1.2 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
3 NNE BRANCHBURG TWP 1.0 600 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...SUSSEX COUNTY...
4 SW WANTAGE 0.2 400 AM 1/06 NWS EMPLOYEE
...WARREN COUNTY...
RIEGELSVILLE 0.9 745 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
STEWARTSVILLE 0.9 823 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
HACKETTSTOWN 0.7 754 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
ALLAMUCHY 0.6 550 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
BLAIRSTOWN 0.1 812 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...HUDSON COUNTY...
HOBOKEN 1.3 810 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
HARRISON 1.3 345 AM 1/06 CO-OP OBSERVER
...UNION COUNTY...
NEWARK AIRPORT 1.6 710 AM 1/06 ASOS
NEW JERSEY
...BERGEN COUNTY...
1 W TENAFLY 0.6 730 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
WNW PALISADES PARK 0.5 900 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
WNW OAKLAND 0.2 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...ESSEX COUNTY...
1 SE MAPLEWOOD TWP 1.0 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 NE WEST CALDWELL T 0.5 900 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...HUDSON COUNTY...
N HARRISON 1.5 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...PASSAIC COUNTY...
1 WNW LITTLE FALLS T 0.7 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
NE LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.6 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
S HAWTHORNE 0.4 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 SSE HAWTHORNE 0.3 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...UNION COUNTY...
1 ESE NEW PROVIDENCE 1.1 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1200 PM EST FRI JAN 06 2017
THE FOLLOWING ARE UNOFFICIAL OBSERVATIONS TAKEN FOR THE STORM THAT
AFFECTED OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. APPRECIATION IS EXTENDED TO
HIGHWAY DEPARTMENTS...COOPERATIVE OBSERVERS...SKYWARN SPOTTERS AND
MEDIA FOR THESE REPORTS. THIS SUMMARY IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR HOME
PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/PHI
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************
LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT
NEW JERSEY
...ATLANTIC COUNTY...
3 WSW HAMMONTON 1.5 900 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
ATLANTIC CITY INTL A 1.0 700 AM 1/06 ASOS
MAYS LANDING 1.0 1000 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
HAMMONTON 1.0 700 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
ESTELL MANOR 0.8 746 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
SCULLVILLE 0.7 500 AM 1/06 METEOROLOGIST
...BURLINGTON COUNTY...
2 E BURLINGTON 2.4 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
BURLINGTON 2.4 630 AM 1/06 NWS EMPLOYEE
FLORENCE 2.3 400 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
CINNAMINSON 2.0 800 AM 1/06 0.12 WATER EQUIVALENT
1 ESE CINNAMINSON TW 2.0 730 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
CROSSWICKS 2.0 604 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
MOUNT HOLLY WFO 2.0 420 AM 1/06 NWS OFFICE
1 SE MOORESTOWN TWP 2.0 807 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
3 ENE MOUNT LAUREL T 1.8 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
MOUNT LAUREL 1.8 900 AM 1/06 RETIRED MET
HAINESPORT 1.7 700 AM 1/06 RETIRED MET
1 SW HAINESPORT TWP 1.7 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 W MEDFORD LAKES 1.2 830 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
MEDFORD 1.1 530 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
2 SSE MEDFORD TWP 1.0 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...CAMDEN COUNTY...
GLOUCESTER CITY 2.5 420 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
CHERRY HILL 2.3 300 AM 1/06 PUBLIC
1 ESE MERCHANTVILLE 1.9 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
LINDENWOLD 1.8 1000 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SW BERLIN 1.6 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
SOMERDALE 1.5 1100 AM 1/06 CO-OP OBSERVER
4 W WINSLOW TWP 1.2 730 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
NNE MOUNT EPHRAIM 1.0 839 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...CAPE MAY COUNTY...
TUCKAHOE 0.5 700 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
SEAVILLE 0.3 600 AM 1/06 AMATEUR RADIO
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE 0.3 845 AM 1/06 AMATEUR RADIO
WILDWOOD CREST 0.1 820 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
...CUMBERLAND COUNTY...
2 SW UPPER DEERFIELD 1.0 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...GLOUCESTER COUNTY...
MANTUA 2.0 740 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
W PITMAN 1.8 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
WILLIAMSTOWN 1.6 915 AM 1/06 AMATEUR RADIO
3 W FRANKLIN TWP 1.5 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
WASHINGTON TWP 1.5 500 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 NNW MONROE TWP 1.3 900 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
2 NW ELK TWP 1.2 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...HUNTERDON COUNTY...
E FLEMINGTON 1.6 630 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 N FRENCHTOWN 1.5 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
4 NNW STOCKTON 1.5 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
2 E FLEMINGTON 1.4 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
2 SE FLEMINGTON 1.3 630 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
2 SE READINGTON TWP 1.2 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
3 NNE GLEN GARDNER 1.1 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
2 ENE CLINTON 1.1 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
READINGTON TWP 1.1 410 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 SW LEBANON 1.0 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 S BETHLEHEM TWP 1.0 530 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 E LEBANON 1.0 645 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
N LAMBERTVILLE 1.0 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
4 N CLINTON TWP 1.0 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
3 NNE HOLLAND TWP 1.0 645 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
3 N LEBANON 1.0 540 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...MERCER COUNTY...
2 NW HOPEWELL TWP 2.5 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
EWING TWP 2.3 445 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 NE HAMILTON TWP 2.1 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
EWING 2.1 800 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
2 E PRINCETON 2.0 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 ENE PENNINGTON 2.0 830 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
2 WSW ROBBINSVILLE T 2.0 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
5 SW HOPEWELL TWP 1.9 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 ESE LAWRENCE TWP 1.8 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
2 SE HOPEWELL 1.7 730 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
LAWRENCE 1.5 806 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
SSW HOPEWELL 1.5 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
2 SSW LAWRENCE TWP 1.5 645 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
METUCHEN 2.4 800 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
2 W NORTH BRUNSWICK 2.1 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 WSW CARTERET 2.0 540 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
PORT READING 2.0 315 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 NW SOUTH BRUNSWICK 2.0 900 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
WOODBRIDGE 2.0 827 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
EDISON 2.0 500 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
1 NNE WOODBRIDGE TWP 2.0 430 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 ESE WOODBRIDGE TWP 1.8 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
SOUTH PLAINFIELD 1.8 900 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 E NEW BRUNSWICK 1.8 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
3 NNE EAST BRUNSWICK 1.7 900 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 SW CRANBURY TWP 1.5 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 ESE SPOTSWOOD 1.5 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
EAST BRUNSWICK 1.5 155 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
5 NE OLD BRIDGE TWP 1.1 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
OLD BRIDGE 1.0 1000 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
WSW SOUTH RIVER 1.0 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
FREEHOLD 1.5 800 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 S UPPER FREEHOLD T 1.2 830 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
FREEHOLD TWP 1.0 600 AM 1/06 METEOROLOGIST
HOWELL TWP 0.8 730 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
COLTS NECK 0.5 744 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
LONG BRANCH 0.5 1000 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
...MORRIS COUNTY...
2 WSW LONG HILL TWP 1.2 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
ROCKAWAY 0.9 520 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
ROXBURY TWP 0.5 700 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
SUCCASUNNA 0.5 530 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
...OCEAN COUNTY...
6 E LACEY TWP 1.1 530 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
TOMS RIVER 1.0 400 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
FORKED RIVER 1.0 810 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
3 SSE BERKELEY TWP 1.0 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
BAYVILLE 1.0 915 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 SSE TOMS RIVER TWP 1.0 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
5 N LITTLE EGG HARBO 1.0 500 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
HERBERTSVILLE 0.5 640 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
BEACH HAVEN 0.5 845 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
JACKSON TWP 0.5 915 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
WHITING 0.5 530 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
BRICK TWP 0.5 630 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
...SALEM COUNTY...
1 NW WOODSTOWN 1.7 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...SOMERSET COUNTY...
4 ENE FRANKLIN TWP 2.2 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
4 SE HILLSBOROUGH TW 2.1 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
5 NNW FRANKLIN TWP 2.1 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
5 ESE HILLSBOROUGH T 2.0 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
3 NE FRANKLIN TWP 1.9 600 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
3 NE MONTGOMERY TWP 1.8 815 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
4 NNW FRANKLIN TWP 1.7 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
WARREN TWP 1.6 900 AM 1/06 METEOROLOGIST
ENE SOMERVILLE 1.5 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
2 SSE WARREN TWP 1.5 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 NNW BERNARDS TWP 1.5 600 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
BASKING RIDGE 1.3 630 AM 1/06 SOCIAL MEDIA
3 NW BRIDGEWATER TWP 1.2 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
3 NNE BRANCHBURG TWP 1.0 600 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...SUSSEX COUNTY...
4 SW WANTAGE 0.2 400 AM 1/06 NWS EMPLOYEE
...WARREN COUNTY...
RIEGELSVILLE 0.9 745 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
STEWARTSVILLE 0.9 823 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
HACKETTSTOWN 0.7 754 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
ALLAMUCHY 0.6 550 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
BLAIRSTOWN 0.1 812 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...HUDSON COUNTY...
HOBOKEN 1.3 810 AM 1/06 TRAINED SPOTTER
HARRISON 1.3 345 AM 1/06 CO-OP OBSERVER
...UNION COUNTY...
NEWARK AIRPORT 1.6 710 AM 1/06 ASOS
NEW JERSEY
...BERGEN COUNTY...
1 W TENAFLY 0.6 730 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
WNW PALISADES PARK 0.5 900 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
WNW OAKLAND 0.2 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...ESSEX COUNTY...
1 SE MAPLEWOOD TWP 1.0 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 NE WEST CALDWELL T 0.5 900 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...HUDSON COUNTY...
N HARRISON 1.5 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...PASSAIC COUNTY...
1 WNW LITTLE FALLS T 0.7 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
NE LITTLE FALLS TWP 0.6 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
S HAWTHORNE 0.4 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
1 SSE HAWTHORNE 0.3 700 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
...UNION COUNTY...
1 ESE NEW PROVIDENCE 1.1 800 AM 1/06 COCORAHS
Here's DT/WxRisk's final call map. Seems fairly consistent with what the NWS is predicting for our area, i.e., 1-2" along I-95 and up to 6" at the immediate coast south of Tom's River and on eastern LI. It sounds weird, but the immediate I-95 area in Central Jersey, for example, could see anywhere from 0" to 6" with only a 30-50 mile shift in the track or snow shield (which can shift without the track shifting) and the models simply can't predict better than that 24 hours in advance. This storm will definitely have a very sharp gradient of snowfall from SE to NW, as indicated by how closely those snowfall lines are spaced in our area.
Solid post. bac doesn't understand the limitations of the science, so he gets his panties all wadded up when the forecasts aren't perfect everywhere. Overall, this was a very good forecast with the only area that missed (by a bit) being parts of Ocean/Monmouth where less than 1" fell. IMO, people should be amazed by how good this forecast was not that it was off in a few spots. 25 years ago, there's no way the forecast would've been this good and 50+ years ago, pre-satellites, fuhgettaboutit. Major progress has been made and yeah, more can be made, obviously.
Winter Storm Warnings now up for 4-6" of snow for the Jersey Shore from Ocean south (and for Suffolk, LI) and advisories are up for 2-4" for most of South Jersey from Burlington to Monmouth and SW of there (and for Nassau, LI). The I-95 corridor from Philly to NYC is expected to get more like 1-2" of snow, so no advisories are up north of Trenton (where 3" is needed for an advisory; only 2" needed for Philly/South Jersey). Like I said earlier, 0-6" is still on the table for I-95, lol.
first of all, i wasnt the poster saying it busted, that was someone else down the shore who received half an inch...and yes a half inch when they call for 3 down the shore is a bust..that area had been touted for days. Its a big difference between having to plow lots and having to salt them, maybe not in your snowglobe world but for the average joe it is.
That said overall the forecast was right in line as I said earlier..but the shore area was the busted one no doubt
the nam was higher with its qpf in its afternoon run given nyc 4 and eastern middlesex monmouth up to 6 verbatim...of course the model was ignored when it was little for most this morning but now weenies are salivating at it. In the western and northern parts of central and north jersey amounts in that 1-3 range.. I think there will be a sharp cut off as I have seen these type things in the past where the coast and so jersey gets hit and north jersey gets flurries.
Really going to be about nowcasting and radar watching late tonight and early tomorrow morning to pick up on trends. This puppy will begin by sunrise in our western and southern sections and be over for some by mid afternoon with of course further east and to the south and northeast lingering longer. Not a long duration event and with roads already treated from today the places who get lucky with under 3 inches shouldnt have all that much trouble keeping the roads fairly clear.
Mt Holly latest disco...
Snowfall Accumulations:
An updated snowfall map for the afternoon was sent to our winter
webpage (weather.gov/phi/winter) just after 3 PM. Overall, the
changes with the afternoon package was minor after we blended with
WPC. Snow ratios of 15:1 to 20:1 are expected with this event.
The complex pattern described above contributes to the uncertainty
as model sensitivity is magnified in phasing setups. If that doesn`t
provide enough of a forecast challenge, the very tight snowfall
gradient on the western periphery of the storm is expected to setup
somewhere over our area; roughly 75 miles may be distance between
almost a foot vs an inch of snow. Consequentially, seemingly minor
shifts in the track (e.g., a 25-50 mile shift to the NW or SE) could
result in significant differences in snowfall accumulations at a
given location. This is why it is very important for us to
communicate forecast uncertainty with this event. Our experimental
snowfall probabilities help with that, but it still may not tell
the whole story. The highest uncertainty regarding snowfall
accumulations are along and just east of I-95.
Timing:
Snow is expected to arrive first in southern DE overnight and
then expand northward into the northern Delmarva and southern NJ
through the early morning hours. A period of moderate to heavy
snow is expected to occur south and east of I-95 during the
morning and possibly into the early afternoon. Light snow will
likely reach the I-95 corridor closer to or just after sunrise
and continue for several hours before ending by the early
afternoon.
Impacts:
With temperatures in the 20s, snow will have no problem accumulating
on untreated roads. Snowfall rates of 1+ per hour are possible
in the warned area during the morning and early afternoon, which
will result in snow accumulations even on the highways. This is
when travel will be most difficult as the higher snowfall rates
could make it difficult for road crews to keep up with the snow.
Near-blizzard conditions are possible near the DE and southern NJ
coast on Saturday with gusty northerly winds around the coastal
low resulting in poor visibility under one-half mile at times. The
snow will be fluffy and light, so poor visibility in blowing snow
could be an issue even after the snow tapers off late in the day.
&&
Really going to be about nowcasting and radar watching late tonight and early tomorrow morning to pick up on trends. This puppy will begin by sunrise in our western and southern sections and be over for some by mid afternoon with of course further east and to the south and northeast lingering longer. Not a long duration event and with roads already treated from today the places who get lucky with under 3 inches shouldnt have all that much trouble keeping the roads fairly clear.
Mt Holly latest disco...
Snowfall Accumulations:
An updated snowfall map for the afternoon was sent to our winter
webpage (weather.gov/phi/winter) just after 3 PM. Overall, the
changes with the afternoon package was minor after we blended with
WPC. Snow ratios of 15:1 to 20:1 are expected with this event.
The complex pattern described above contributes to the uncertainty
as model sensitivity is magnified in phasing setups. If that doesn`t
provide enough of a forecast challenge, the very tight snowfall
gradient on the western periphery of the storm is expected to setup
somewhere over our area; roughly 75 miles may be distance between
almost a foot vs an inch of snow. Consequentially, seemingly minor
shifts in the track (e.g., a 25-50 mile shift to the NW or SE) could
result in significant differences in snowfall accumulations at a
given location. This is why it is very important for us to
communicate forecast uncertainty with this event. Our experimental
snowfall probabilities help with that, but it still may not tell
the whole story. The highest uncertainty regarding snowfall
accumulations are along and just east of I-95.
Timing:
Snow is expected to arrive first in southern DE overnight and
then expand northward into the northern Delmarva and southern NJ
through the early morning hours. A period of moderate to heavy
snow is expected to occur south and east of I-95 during the
morning and possibly into the early afternoon. Light snow will
likely reach the I-95 corridor closer to or just after sunrise
and continue for several hours before ending by the early
afternoon.
Impacts:
With temperatures in the 20s, snow will have no problem accumulating
on untreated roads. Snowfall rates of 1+ per hour are possible
in the warned area during the morning and early afternoon, which
will result in snow accumulations even on the highways. This is
when travel will be most difficult as the higher snowfall rates
could make it difficult for road crews to keep up with the snow.
Near-blizzard conditions are possible near the DE and southern NJ
coast on Saturday with gusty northerly winds around the coastal
low resulting in poor visibility under one-half mile at times. The
snow will be fluffy and light, so poor visibility in blowing snow
could be an issue even after the snow tapers off late in the day.
&&
That was me. Anyone expecting and preparing for 3 inches and getting a mere half inch is going to go for the bust.
I agree,. the mets busted in your area, I never knew of one profession where they cannot take criticism when they dont get part of their job right....Overall they were great with the forecast but did slip up in your area. but here you have Numbers defending them like crazy instead of just admitting they got it wrong, Go on americanwx and you will find a guy PB GFI who is going to take his ball and hide now that he has been exposed by many posters as arrogant and never admitting he is wrong. DT and JB are others. Its their arrogance, condescending attitude and know it all stuff that is more the issue than them making mistakes which are understandable
I just wanted to thank everyone in this thread who congratulated me on my marriage. We did the deed this morning. Our guests from North Brunswick, Hackensack and Westwood all said the snow had stopped before they started, and that there was virtually no accumulation on paved surfaces, just as in Cherry Hill. (I'm surprised RU848789 was hearing reports to the contrary). The snow made a pretty background looking out the windows. Let me also thank all of you who contributed weather predictions and observations. We do hear there will be a storm tonight, but fortunately, we have no need to go out this weekend.
Amy scored major points when she visited our fire department during a storm standby in 2015 (I was not there):
