We had a few flakes here in OC. My weather app, dark sky is predicting 6 inches tomorrow
#s how in gods name do you work all day if you are up all night? When do you sleep?
OT-Will it Snow on Friday?
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We had a few flakes here in OC. My weather app, dark sky is predicting 6 inches tomorrow
#s how in gods name do you work all day if you are up all night? When do you sleep?
As my wife always says, mazel tov!! And great to hear your friends had no travel problems - was pretty confident that would be the case, but weather can be fickle, so you never know.
I slept about 3 hours - can still do that for a few nights in a row and function. With a full work plate (still chugging at 55-60 hours/week), I do almost all my weather research and posting outside of maybe 8 am to 5 pm, which means a pretty damn long day, especially on the actual day it snows, as I just can't sleep if it's snowing appreciably - never have been able to. You're going to get pounded tomorrow with 6+" of snow and howling winds - very jealous, lol. I'm hoping for 2-3" here.
Here's DT/WxRisk's final call map. Seems fairly consistent with what the NWS is predicting for our area, i.e., 1-2" along I-95 and up to 6" at the immediate coast south of Tom's River and on eastern LI. It sounds weird, but the immediate I-95 area in Central Jersey, for example, could see anywhere from 0" to 6" with only a 30-50 mile shift in the track or snow shield (which can shift without the track shifting) and the models simply can't predict better than that 24 hours in advance. This storm will definitely have a very sharp gradient of snowfall from SE to NW, as indicated by how closely those snowfall lines are spaced in our area.
The NWS-Philly discussion highlighted the uncertainty way better than I could have - really well written discussion by them today (I added the bolding).
The complex pattern described above contributes to the uncertainty
as model sensitivity is magnified in phasing setups. If that doesn`t
provide enough of a forecast challenge, the very tight snowfall
gradient on the western periphery of the storm is expected to setup
somewhere over our area; roughly 75 miles may be distance between
almost a foot vs an inch of snow. Consequentially, seemingly minor
shifts in the track (e.g., a 25-50 mile shift to the NW or SE) could
result in significant differences in snowfall accumulations at a
given location. This is why it is very important for us to
communicate forecast uncertainty with this event. Our experimental
snowfall probabilities help with that, but it still may not tell
the whole story. The highest uncertainty regarding snowfall
accumulations are along and just east of I-95.
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
A normally very conservative pro meteorologist on American just posted this:
The jet streak keeps getting stronger on all the models. i think this will come west until the very last minute and i think much of nyc could see 6".
The model trend (and actual setup "on the field") has definitely been towards a snowier solution for our area for the last day or so and it is continuing with the recent short term models, which should be in their wheelhouse right now, 12-18 hours before the event. Doesn't mean it's going to happen, but quite a few smart people are thinking that way.
The jet streak keeps getting stronger on all the models. i think this will come west until the very last minute and i think much of nyc could see 6".
The model trend (and actual setup "on the field") has definitely been towards a snowier solution for our area for the last day or so and it is continuing with the recent short term models, which should be in their wheelhouse right now, 12-18 hours before the event. Doesn't mean it's going to happen, but quite a few smart people are thinking that way.
This storm is a huge deal for the SE US. Atlanta getting several inches, Charlotte getting 6", Raleigh getting 8", Norfolk getting a foot and having blizzard warnings (same for the southern tip of the DelMarVa), Richmond getting 6", etc. And a large swath of sleet and major freezing rain to the S/E of areas getting all the snow. Biggest winter storm for them in several years and these folks aren't used to it and don't have the equipment to deal with it. My family in Charlotte said it's basically going into shutdown.
http://nj1015.com/winter-storm-warning-ocean-burlington-atlantic-cape-may-cumberland/
Dan Zarrow from 101.5 just posted a new blog....not very bullish on snow north of route 1...in fact his map shows less than inch for almost all of Somerset and most of Union. 1-3 south of that and then 2-4 toward the shore with the real heavy amounts up to 7 confinded to extreme southeast jersey coast
Who Gets Moderate-Heavy Snow?
3 to 7 inches are forecast to accumulate across far southern Ocean, southeastern Burlington, coastal Atlantic, and Cape May counties (most of the warning area)
Who Gets Light-Moderate Snow?
2 to 4 inches of fresh snow are expected for the rest of Ocean County, southern and eastern Monmouth County, and the corridor from northwestern Burlington to Camden to Gloucester to Salem counties (most of the advisory area)
Who Gets Light Snow?
1 to 3 inches will be possible for northwestern Monmouth, Mercer, and Middlesex counties
Who Gets Hardly Any Snow?
Hardly any new snow is anticipated north and west of the Route 1 corridor. This looks like a non-event for North Jersey and part of Central Jersey.
Coverage Plan
Given the continuing uncertainty, and the potential for a pretty big storm for part of the state, it’s going to be very important to keep up-to-date with current conditions and the short-term forecast.
Read More: Winter Storm Warning for southern and central New Jersey | http://nj1015.com/winter-storm-warn...lantic-cape-may-cumberland/?trackback=tsmclip
Dan Zarrow from 101.5 just posted a new blog....not very bullish on snow north of route 1...in fact his map shows less than inch for almost all of Somerset and most of Union. 1-3 south of that and then 2-4 toward the shore with the real heavy amounts up to 7 confinded to extreme southeast jersey coast
Who Gets Moderate-Heavy Snow?
3 to 7 inches are forecast to accumulate across far southern Ocean, southeastern Burlington, coastal Atlantic, and Cape May counties (most of the warning area)
Who Gets Light-Moderate Snow?
2 to 4 inches of fresh snow are expected for the rest of Ocean County, southern and eastern Monmouth County, and the corridor from northwestern Burlington to Camden to Gloucester to Salem counties (most of the advisory area)
Who Gets Light Snow?
1 to 3 inches will be possible for northwestern Monmouth, Mercer, and Middlesex counties
Who Gets Hardly Any Snow?
Hardly any new snow is anticipated north and west of the Route 1 corridor. This looks like a non-event for North Jersey and part of Central Jersey.
Coverage Plan
Given the continuing uncertainty, and the potential for a pretty big storm for part of the state, it’s going to be very important to keep up-to-date with current conditions and the short-term forecast.
Read More: Winter Storm Warning for southern and central New Jersey | http://nj1015.com/winter-storm-warn...lantic-cape-may-cumberland/?trackback=tsmclip
No surprise given comments like this and the latest models showing more snow inland the NWS in Philly has upped the advisories a tier to the NW, adding all of the SE PA counties and converting parts of South Jersey from Advisories to Warnings.
They've also updated the map again, increasing forecast snowfall again, with the 3" line now within a few miles of the NJ TPK from South Jersey to NB. A little surprised they didn't add Mercer and Middlesex to the Advisory area, but maybe they'll do that after the full 00Z model suite is done, assuming the rest of the models trend a bit snowier; Mercer and Middlesex are generally listed as 1-3" snowfall (with the high end in the SE parts of each county). Stay tuned.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
916 PM: upgrading ne MD through PHL to an advy. increased POPS
through much of the area tomorrow and snow amt map will post with
a hasty update prior to 930 cron of products. Not much more to say
except that multi models with .15" PHL area and dry snow water
ratios will result in lots of fluff... sharp cut off somewhere
vcnty MQS- FWN. cud see isolated 4-5" back to I95.
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Nick Gregory, who's one of the best, just upgraded his snowfall totals by 1-2" everywhere, bringing the 2-4" swath through basically all of NJ, except for Hunterdon, Warren, Sussex and western Morris/western Passaic (has those at 1-2"), i.e., basically from 20 miles west of the Turnpike to the Jersey Shore. And he has coastal Monmouth, most of Ocean and most of LI in a 4-7" band (with eastern Suffolk at 7-10").
Based on the trends, one would expect advisories to go up for the whole I-95 corridor and all of NYC metro/NE NJ, but I'm guessing the NWS will wait for a couple of more hours to make sure the 00Z models don't pull a reverse, which is looking very unlikely, as big model shifts are far less likely just before the event (since there's much less time left to make moves).
Based on the trends, one would expect advisories to go up for the whole I-95 corridor and all of NYC metro/NE NJ, but I'm guessing the NWS will wait for a couple of more hours to make sure the 00Z models don't pull a reverse, which is looking very unlikely, as big model shifts are far less likely just before the event (since there's much less time left to make moves).
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And Lee Goldberg joins the party, with similar numbers as Nick Gregory. He has NYC and all of NJ from the TPK eastward in a 3-6" swath and then a 1-3" swath from the Turnpike NW-ward about 20 miles, with only Sussex/Warren/NW Hunterdon in the <1" region. He has a bit less for the Jersey Shore/eastern LI (maybe 6"+) than Nick did.
Mt holly snow map still has new brunswick at 2 inches.....they anyd upton are riding the GFS with this system as is Zarrow..gfs held serve with its sharper cutoff thru NJ
They will adjust upwards - almost guarantee it, unless the Euro throws a curveball. Here's the 00Z model summary, with only the GFS showing 1-2" for NYC, while the rest show 3-5" (at 10:1 ratios and we're likely to be 15:1). The GFS is an outlier. Doesn't guarantee we'll get these amounts, but it's the smart way to bet.
1/07 00z Guidance Summary for NYC (numbers are liquid equiv; multiply by 10 to get inches of snow, if a 10:1 ratio; multiply by 15 if we get a 15:1 ratio). And NYC is a good indicator for I95 in general in this case, since distance NW of the storm track is critical here and all of I-95 will be about the same distance from the storm track, which is why Philly to NYC will see fairly similar amounts.
SREF: 0.45
NAM (regular): 0.40- 0.45
GFS: 0.10 - 0.15
RGEM: 0.40 - 0.45
UKMET: 0.40
GGEM: 0.30 - 0.35
EURO: 0.35 - 0.40
Edit - Euro just came in unchanged. Will be very, very surprised if the I-95 corridor counties aren't bumped up from the general 2-4" now to 3-5" by the NWS.
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As expected, the NWS did increase their snowfall forecast for the I-95 corridor to a general 2-4" and added Mercer and Middlesex (but not Somerset) to the advisory list, as well as NYC, but surprisingly not Union/Hudson/Bergen, despite them being in a 2-3" swath. They also added Nassau/coastal CT to the warning list.
This is still a very tricky forecast, however, with a high degree of uncertainty, due to a very sharp cutoff in precip on the NW side of the storm (likely somewhere near I-95) and a very steep gradient from SE to NW, such that it's still very possible for places along the NJ TPK, for example, to still get anywhere from just an inch of snow if the track shifts 25 miles SE, to 2-4" if the storm stays on track, to 4-6" if the track shifts 25 miles to the NW. Updated maps below. Snow has started from about Dover, DE to AC and should be in our area by 9-10 am.
Also, keep in mind that temps will be in the mid/upper 20s for everyone in NJ, so there's no question that whatever falls will be snow and it will accumulate on all untreated surfaces (unless intensity is light - while the sun angle is low in early Jan, there is still some indirect sunlight, which makes accumulation on paved/dark surfaces difficult with only light snow, even with below freezing temps).
http://www.weather.gov/phi/
This is still a very tricky forecast, however, with a high degree of uncertainty, due to a very sharp cutoff in precip on the NW side of the storm (likely somewhere near I-95) and a very steep gradient from SE to NW, such that it's still very possible for places along the NJ TPK, for example, to still get anywhere from just an inch of snow if the track shifts 25 miles SE, to 2-4" if the storm stays on track, to 4-6" if the track shifts 25 miles to the NW. Updated maps below. Snow has started from about Dover, DE to AC and should be in our area by 9-10 am.
Also, keep in mind that temps will be in the mid/upper 20s for everyone in NJ, so there's no question that whatever falls will be snow and it will accumulate on all untreated surfaces (unless intensity is light - while the sun angle is low in early Jan, there is still some indirect sunlight, which makes accumulation on paved/dark surfaces difficult with only light snow, even with below freezing temps).
http://www.weather.gov/phi/
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Could easily see you guys getting 7-10". Tried to convince my wife to head to either AC or Cape Cod, with no success, lol.
Amy Freeze was just on and she said it is going to snow! 6-10" on Eastern LI.
#'s question- have a party to attend in Hackettstown. Need to leave by noon to get there by 2 p.m.. Figuring if we leave Sea Bright area by noon, we should be fine, since we are heading north and west. We should return home leaving at about 5-6 p.m. from Hackettstown.
#'s question- have a party to attend in Hackettstown. Need to leave by noon to get there by 2 p.m.. Figuring if we leave Sea Bright area by noon, we should be fine, since we are heading north and west. We should return home leaving at about 5-6 p.m. from Hackettstown.
Hey #'s, could we be in for a major storm if this California storm holds together as it crosses the country this week?http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-atmospheric-river-prepare-20170105-story.html
Pretty sure this one will make up for the underperforming Friday morning snowfall for everyone at the Jersey Shore. You're solidly in the 4-6" zone. Slightly surprised they didn't go with warnings for coastal Monmouth, but that's probably because the warning criteiron for Monmouth is 6" of snow in 12 hours vs. only 5" of snow in 12 hours for Ocean and the rest of South Jersey, so it's easier for a warning to verify for Ocean/South Jersey.
Edit: this is the snowfall criteria (12 hours) map for our region. Didn't realize that the header didn't copy when I pasted this in.
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Hey Knight Shift,are you very close to the ocean, and will you be expecting high surf over the sea wall with this storm? I hope all is well in that regard,as Sea Bright and the Jersey Shore in general as suffered enough. I see that Donovan's Reef is in the middle of a big expansion with an opening planned before summer, and is being build on pilings this time, good move.
No, that storm is predicted to head well to our NW by mid-week with minor impacts here, other than the fact that storms that head well to our NW always bring in warmer air here, so it's likely to make it into the 50s by Wednesday with some rain possible.
But yeah, that storm is going to be epic for the whole west coast and the Rockies with several feet of rain and many feet of snow in the mountains. Could be too much snow for some resorts, given how snowy it's already been - avalance risks are going to get very high.
That map conflicts with the one you have above? IT is showing MORE snow north and west.Pretty sure this one will make up for the underperforming Friday morning snowfall for everyone at the Jersey Shore. You're solidly in the 4-6" zone. Slightly surprised they didn't go with warnings for coastal Monmouth, but that's probably because the warning criteiron for Monmouth is 6" of snow in 12 hours vs. only 5" of snow in 12 hours for Ocean and the rest of South Jersey, so it's easier for a warning to verify for Ocean/South Jersey.
No high surf warnings that I am aware of. If flooding was expected, the fire department would be moving their apparatus to higher ground in town, and we have not got word on that. I'm heading out for a bike ride and will be riding past Sandy Hook and through Sea Bright. Will report back.
Be advised Sandy Hook is currently locked down due to live ordinance located yesterday.
Noon is going to be snowy in Sea Bright. If you could leave an hour earlier you might save yourself some grief, but yes, once you're past the Woodbridge area you'll likely be fine, especially on major highways, and Hackettstown will likely get very little snow. The drive back shouldn't be bad, although once you get on side streets near home, it will likely be slippery even if the snow has stopped.
Fort Hancock, I presume? Walked around there a million times and always wondered if there still might be some risks from old bombs and such.
No expected coastal flooding issues, since the storm will be pretty far offshore. Surf and winds will definitely be up though...
.MARINE...
The low off the coast is expected to cause wind speeds to increase
for today and tonight. The wind will be mainly out of the north.
Gale force gusts remain possible on our ocean waters from off
Atlantic City southward to Fenwick Island in Delaware. As a result,
the Gale Warning remains in effect there. A Small Craft Advisory is
in place for our ocean waters north of Atlantic City and for
Delaware Bay.
Wave heights on our ocean waters are forecast to build to 5 to 8
feet. Waves on Delaware Bay should build to 2 to 5 feet.
The models at 6z including the NAM had cut totals from previous runs so now we nowcast and radar watch
Has not even started here yet, but I'm still up early as the early part of an event is always most telling.
Will be light and fluffy.
Perfect!
yep, nowcasting time - the short term mesoscale models are all over the place this morning. I'm very worried I'm going to be on the "wrong" side of this one, unlike yesterday's storm. I can just see this one with snowbands 10-20 miles SE of me delivering 3-5" of snow, while we eke out an inch of snow. Just not that confident in getting the 2-3" forecast for Metuchen. That's the Rutgers fan in me, who's used to getting one's hopes up only to have Lucy pull that ball away, lol.
You are a perfect Twilight Zone episode. You're living your life as a snow lover and at the end the camera pans away and you are actually living in a snow globe.
That map is the winter storm warning criteria for snow amounts the NWS uses, not today's forecast amounts which were posted previously by #s as well.
You should have gone to AC. I know the Trop has some great deals through the end of February currently. They just refurbished a whole wing and are promoting it
It's blowing pretty hard here now
lmfao
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virga fest in Belle Mead, ive seen a few stray flurries but dry air and low dews winning out right now here
