OT-Will it Snow on Friday?

[bac2therac]

Dan Zarrow....

imeline
As of this writing, the snow has already arrived for the southern third of the state. It will continue to spread northward through Saturday morning.

Peak snowfall intensity is expected around midday, from about 9 a.m. to 3 p.m.

Snow will taper from west to east somewhere in the late afternoon to early evening time frame, as the storm system slides away. Snowflakes should be done by 8 p.m. at the absolute latest.

Totals
As I mentioned above, snow totals have been tweaked upwards slightly across the entire state. The “miss” scenario seems to be off the table now, with significant snowfall likely across New Jersey’s southern coast (at least). The big question is where the sharp cutoff occurs – in other words, the dividing line between “snow” and “hardly any snow”.

–5 to 8 inches of fresh snow accumulation are expected across the southern coast of New Jersey. This includes Manahawkin and LBI in Ocean County, Atlantic City and Mays Landing in Atlantic County, and all of Cape May County.

–3 to 6 inches of new snow is forecast for most of Monmouth County (including Long Branch, Belmar, and Freehold), interior Ocean County (including Brick, Jackson, and Toms River), most of Burlington County, parts of Camden and Gloucester counties, the eastern half of Atlantic County, and all of Cumberland County.

–2 to 4 inches for the NJ Turnpike corridor, including the edges of Hudson and Union counties, most of Middlesex County (including Edison and the Brunswicks), the northwestern portion of Monmouth County (including Hazlet, Manalapan, and Allentown), and the western parts of Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, and Salem counties.

–0 to 2 inches for North Jersey, mainly north and west of the Route 1 corridor.



Read More: Moderate to heavy snow all day Saturday for most of NJ | http://nj1015.com/moderate-to-heavy-snow-all-day-saturday-for-most-of-nj/?trackback=tsmclip

 

[RU848789]

That map conflicts with the one you have above? IT is showing MORE snow north and west.

That map is the winter storm warning criteria for snow amounts the NWS uses, not today's forecast amounts which were posted previously by #s as well.

Yep, thought it was clear and then realized the map header didn't paste in; I edited the original post to make it clearer that that's just the warning criteria map for the region.

 

[retired711]

There is snow falling in Cherry Hill as of 9:20 a.m. I think it started only a while ago judging from the fact that there is little on the ground. But the intensity of the snow has picked up substantially in the last few minutes.

 

[zappaa]

My daughters ski club goes to Mountain Creek today for first ski of winter…looks like some white out?

 

[RU848789]

Light snow started here around 9 am and it's now quite heavy and we already have 2" on the ground as we must be under a megaband. I kid, I kid, it's coming down lightly to almost moderately now and we have just a dusting so far - very dry, pixie dust snow.

It's currently 21F here and the warmest temp in the state is only 24F on LBI, so no question of snow and accumulating snow.

 

[Knight Shift]

Be advised Sandy Hook is currently locked down due to live ordinance located yesterday.

It's OK. I know CM. ;) We were advised of that yesterday. The ordinance was exploded while I was at the top of the hill in Hartshorne Woods at about 8:45. It was a bigly explosion!!!

 

[Knight Shift]

So, no nude sunbathing today for @Knight Shift?

LOL. Just got in from my mountain bike ride. Started at about 08:00, with light flurries, then I could not see shit on my way home as the snow was coming down at a good pace. I saw a few other maniacs out in Hartshorne Woods.
It is very cold. First time the water in my water bottle froze/turned to slush on a ride. No nude sunbathing for me today. Don't think my extremities can handle another cold blast.

 

[zappaa]

LOL. Just got in from my mountain bike ride. Started at about 08:00, with light flurries, then I could not see shit on my way home as the snow was coming down at a good pace. I saw a few other maniacs out in Hartshorne Woods.
It is very cold. First time the water in my water bottle froze/turned to slush on a ride. No nude sunbathing for me today. Don't think my extremities can handle another cold blast.

How about I meet you for a Polar Bear dive

 

[Knight Shift]

How about I meet you for a Polar Bear dive

No thanks. We have to do fire standby for those things, and it's not on my bucket list. God bless those hearty souls that want to jump in the ocean in the dead of winter for charity and/or fun!

 

[RU848789]

The models at 6z including the NAM had cut totals from previous runs so now we nowcast and radar watch

By the way, the 12Z NAM (initial conditions from 7 am EST) went back to the healthy I-95 snowfall (3-5" for most of the corridor) it was showing in previous runs - looks like the 6Z run was a hiccup.

Radar looking very nice for Mercer/Somerset/eastern Morris/Union/Essex and points S and E of that line - the western edge of what looks to be accumulating snow, right now runs from maybe New Hope to Morristown. Will be interesting to see where that line moves during the day. Will try to paste in the radar pic - didn't work - here's link.

http://radar.weather.gov/Legend/N0R/DIX_N0R_Legend_0.gif

Officially beyond a coating now - we have 1/4" of new snow on the ground and snowing moderately.

 

[RU848789]

How about I meet you for a Polar Bear dive

Zap - have you ever done it? I've thought about it, but never followed through. When I was an undergrad at RU, I had a friend who used to throw great parties at his parents house in P-way. They had a pool and an outdoor hot tub. One year in late fall, they still hadn't emptied the pool, so we were jumping into what was probably a 40F pool and then jumping as quickly as possible into the hot tub. Pretty sure the alcohol helped.

 

[RU4Real]

Blowin' & Snowin' like a Mo-Fo here in the Two-Six.

 

[bac2therac]

take lots of pictures for those of us who will be on the western fringes of this

 

[RU848789]

Unfortunately for snow lovers in the big cities in the south, this storm did not deliver. Atlanta was supposed to get a few inches of snow/sleet, but got rain and then freezing rain - parts of the area got up to 0.2" of ice on everything. Similar story in Charlotte, where they got freezing rain and sleet, although they should get an inch or two of snow on top of that this morning. And Raleigh has mostly gotten sleet with some snow instead of the 6+" of snow they expected.

In these locations, the snow line ended up being just north of these cities instead of just south of these cities (maybe a 25 mile shift vs. the forecast). This is actually an indication that the track of the storm was and is a bit NW of where it was originally forecast, which is why the I-95 corridor, here, is now expecting 2-4" instead of only an inch or so.

 

[Degaz-RU]

From looking at the current radar, it looks like the western edge of the heavier snowfall is setting up right on top of I-95, from Philly straight up the Turnpike toward Bergen County.

 

[RU848789]

From looking at the current radar, it looks like the western edge of the heavier snowfall is setting up right on top of I-95, from Philly straight up the Turnpike toward Bergen County.

Actually, looks more like a line from New Hope to Parsippany and points S/E of that line - that's where the "green" 20DBZ+ echoes (which typically deliver 1/2" per hour snowfall rates) are showing up - at least for now, but that line will likely move some. Wish I knew how to copy/paste the radar graphic.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

Found this pic on American from 10:40 am; shows decent (green, 20 DBZ) echoes have made it all the way out to the Del Water Gap.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

I don't expect much snow at all today in Boonton

 

[zappaa]

Zap - have you ever done it? I've thought about it, but never followed through. When I was an undergrad at RU, I had a friend who used to throw great parties at his parents house in P-way. They had a pool and an outdoor hot tub. One year in late fall, they still hadn't emptied the pool, so we were jumping into what was probably a 40F pool and then jumping as quickly as possible into the hot tub. Pretty sure the alcohol helped.

I'm afraid my heart will stop from the shock…lol
However, there was a time in my life where the ingestion of substances made me impervious to cold.

 

[RU848789]

Had 1/4" at 10:00 am and now have 1/2" as of 10:30 am - that's 1/2" per hour rates under 20-25 DBZ radar echoes, which makes sense. Would get 3" or so at this rate, which I'd be very happy with. This snow, while very dry and powdery, is nowhere near as "fluffy" as yesterday's.

We don't have large dendrites like we did for that system, which was about a 20:1 snow to liquid ratio; I'm guessing this snow is 10-12:1 ratio, which is kind of typical for this area. So, if we get 3" today at 10:1, that's actually twice as much mass of snow as the 2.75" of snow we got of 20:1 snow on Friday. But people only seem to care about depth of snow, so it'll "look" like the same amount of snow.

 

[bac2therac]

this

this is the latest HRRR model which is a sometimes reliable short term model. I think this is going to be pretty accurate..note the huge differences in snow totals across new jersey as you travel east to west going from a coating in the northwest corner to up to 8 inches along the coast.

 

[bac2therac]

oh and the GFS caved on its just in run...gives NYC 6 inches at least.

 

[RocktheRac]

I'm getting a feeling that in Hillsborough we're getting 4 to 5. It's coming down brutally and still have 5 to 6 hours to go.

 

[Zak57]

Old Bridge getting beat right now. Just measured 1.1 already.

 

[bac2therac]

I'm getting a feeling that in Hillsborough we're getting 4 to 5. It's coming down brutally and still have 5 to 6 hours to go.

you need to stop.....2-3 Hillsborough is a good call, we dont even have a half inch, relax francis

 

[RU848789]

NWS updated snowfall maps, increasing snowfall on the NW fringes (up to an inch for the Lehigh Valley, Warren/Sussex instead of nada and 1-2" for Hunterdon/Morris instead of <1") and for the coastal areas (was 5-8" for Atlantic/Cape May and is now 8-12"), but didn't change the I-95 corridor much, leaving it mostly in the 2-4" range

 

[rutgersguy1]

You are a perfect Twilight Zone episode. You're living your life as a snow lover and at the end the camera pans away and you are actually living in a snow globe.

As someone who never watched that show until it was brought up here, that's pretty funny.

 

[RocktheRac]

For you gambler's Freehold Raceway has cancelled its live racing program today.

 

[RU848789]

you need to stop.....2-3 Hillsborough is a good call, we dont even have a half inch, relax francis

Agreed - imagine if I had made that post, lol...

 

[bac2therac]

I see americanwx is trashing the GFS, but it never fails that one model is always wrong and its not always the GFS, sometimes its spot on so it doesnt deserve the bashing its gettting. There is a reason that the NWS put alot of faith in its output even though it turned out wrong today. I have seen the NAM embarrassingly wrong time and time again but yet the weenies usually rally around that model more than any. Wait how quick they hump the GFS next time it signals a big dump

 

[RU848789]

Had 1/4" at 10:00 am and now have 1/2" as of 10:30 am - that's 1/2" per hour rates under 20-25 DBZ radar echoes, which makes sense. Would get 3" or so at this rate, which I'd be very happy with. This snow, while very dry and powdery, is nowhere near as "fluffy" as yesterday's.

We don't have large dendrites like we did for that system, which was about a 20:1 snow to liquid ratio; I'm guessing this snow is 10-12:1 ratio, which is kind of typical for this area. So, if we get 3" today at 10:1, that's actually twice as much mass of snow as the 2.75" of snow we got of 20:1 snow on Friday. But people only seem to care about depth of snow, so it'll "look" like the same amount of snow.

Up to 1" as of 11 am, reflecting the increase in intensity the past half hour (1" per hour rate). If that keeps up, we'll get more than 3". Down to 19F.

 

[e5fdny]

Did the wedding happen?

Was it Friday night or for today?

 

[RocktheRac]

Up to 1" as of 11 am, reflecting the increase in intensity the past half hour (1" per hour rate). If that keeps up, we'll get more than 3". Down to 19F.

That's what I'm trying to tell you. This is gonna be a biggie.

 

[RocktheRac]

Just got a notice from NWS. Morris/Somerset/Hunterdon 2 to 4 inches until 6pm. Interesting how far up the amounts went to Morris County

 

[RU848789]

Big changes from the NWS. Middlesex added to the warning list for up to 6" of snow and Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen were all added to the advisory list for at least 3" of snow (and Rockland/Westchester were also added to the advisory list). Snowing close to heavily now, here.

 

[RocktheRac]

Big changes from the NWS. Middlesex added to the warning list for up to 6" of snow and Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen were all added to the advisory list for at least 3" of snow (and Rockland/Westchester were also added to the advisory list). Snowing close to heavily now, here.

Yes Yes. Ocean now calling for 8 to 10. Don't see why Somerset can't get at least 5 looking at the banding.

 

[RU848789]

Big changes from the NWS. Middlesex added to the warning list for up to 6" of snow and Somerset, Hunterdon, Morris, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen were all added to the advisory list for at least 3" of snow (and Rockland/Westchester were also added to the advisory list). Snowing close to heavily now, here.

As I said last night, based on the models at 00Z, I thought the NWS was going to bump the I-95 corridor up to 3-5" and add all the counties above to the advisories and bump the coastal counties up to warnings at 4 am, but they only went partway. Well, they're all in now. Maps above were all updated too with 4-6" now for the I-95 corridor and more everywhere really. Would be a kick in the head now, if these don't verify.

 

[RocktheRac]

Middlesex County now in Winter Storm Warning. I expect Somerset to follow as the snow looks like it will end around 8 pm instead of 4.

 

[RocktheRac]

Just saw the new update. Over 6 in Hillsborough?

 

[bac2therac]

Just saw the new update. Over 6 in Hillsborough?

thats not happening...they bumped totals a bit for somerset but stop going crazy

 

[bac2therac]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=DIX&loop=yes


you can see where the heavy axis is setting up...the earlier heavier echoes have move from Trenton to the southeast of that, so we will watch what happens now. Monmouth, Ocean, Burlington down to Cape May will be the clear jackpot here