Well YOU of all people know what annoys ME on this topic. ;) LOL
Oh, and I need your updated info (with a map maybe?) for DC. Thanks again.
OT: Winter storm on 1/12 into 1/13 looking pretty minor for CNJ; significant snow for SNJ/SE PA/DE
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Oh, and I need your updated info (with a map maybe?) for DC. Thanks again.
Snowfall prediction from the NWS was upped for DC, but not Balt. See the map. As per my earlier posts this morning though, there's clearly the potential for 8" or more in DC and 5" or more in Balt (and Cape May).
And if you want to know why forecasting is so difficult, it's because weather is so freaking complex. Just look at the difference between today's 12Z 12 km resolution NAM and the 3 km resolution NAM, below (which both just came out) and imagine having to make a forecast with this info.
The snowfall gradient on the 12 km NAM is a Feb-2010 level steep gradient. Can't believe this would verify, but it's just nuts if it does. From 0" in Trenton to 7" in Philly to 15" in Wilmington? 0-15" over 50 miles? The reason for having so much snow there is the model is projecting that the coastal low that forms Sunday morning will stall and spin and strengthen piling up major snowfalls, while every other model has the coastal low moving out to sea and just brushing the DelMarVa and southern NJ,
The 12Z 3 km NAM seems much more reasonable - this is the biggest difference I've ever seen between the 12 km and 3 km NAMs. The higher resolution 3 km NAM supposedly handles convection much better - so maybe the 12 km NAM is out to lunch. That would be my guess.
Really? Posting one NAM map not supported by the 3k and every other model. Would seem like obvious toss.
Mt. Holly decreased snowfall to zip for all of NNJ/CNJ/E PA down to about 195/276 based on the 0Z models, but the 6Z models are definitely showing a small uptick in snowfall amounts along and north of 195/276, showing 195/276 roughly being the 1" line now and amounts decreasing from about 1" there to a dusting around 78. Hey, I want to see some flakes, lol, and while this difference for us in the Edison area might only be ~1/2", the difference between 1/2" and 0" is well, 1/2". I know this is splitting hairs on a nuisance event, but yeah, I'd like to at least see a little snow out of this.
Yes you are splitting hairs on a dusting or coating of snow
IIRC, there was a storm last year or two years ago on which the NAM turned out to be the accurate model.
Thanks.Snowfall prediction from the NWS was upped for DC, but not Balt. See the map. As per my earlier posts this morning though, there's clearly the potential for 8" or more in DC and 5" or more in Balt (and Cape May).
Are we still good on the timing? I believe you said it should be over 9am the other day?
Also, what are we looking for on the ground TONIGHT in the Atlantic City area? Picking up my older boy at the Airport down there from the late Spirit flight coming in from Orlando which lands at 12am.
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That's not how it works
That storm had many runs of nam support...and it's a totally different situation
Also it's not like the nam is never right it's just that it's almost always overamped especially the 12k version
That's if the 3-5" amounts come; the models showing 5-8" are showing more because the coastal low is stronger on Sunday and extends the snowfall into the afternoon, although the heaviest snow still looks to be done by 9 am or so. This is your best source of info...
https://www.weather.gov/lwx/
Did you even read what I wrote? Doubtful. Go back and read it. I was illustrating the difficulty forecasters have with sometimes wild swings in models and I said the 12 km NAM was unlikely.
Thanks again. I have that saved on my phone too.
Did you see my edit above? Asking about AC tonight. What does the data say to you for midnight?
Poor forecasters...actually they know what they are doing and dont get fooled by one outlier model run
You do realize that if you stated that the sun would rise in the east tomorrow he'd argue with you about it, don't you?
Snowfall prediction from the NWS was upped for DC, but not Balt. See the map. As per my earlier posts this morning though, there's clearly the potential for 8" or more in DC and 5" or more in Balt (and Cape May).
Whoa @e5fdny ! NWS in DC/Balt has responded to the significant increase in the model consensus forecasts and upped the snowfall amounts for the entire region (as did Mt. Holly for Del/SE NJ/SE PA), with Baltimore now forecast to get 4-6" and DC 6-8". All due to the coastal low being forecasted to be stronger and closer to the coast, meaning accumulating snows until at least noon in DC/Balt and possibly through the afternoon, although at a lighter rate. Same for Wilmington (now ~4") and towards Philly (now ~2") with increased snowfall forecasts Sunday morning until noon or so. Your drive keeps getting harder, sorry.
Mt. Holly decreased snowfall to zip for all of NNJ/CNJ/E PA down to about 195/276 based on the 0Z models, but the 6Z models are definitely showing a small uptick in snowfall amounts along and north of 195/276, showing 195/276 roughly being the 1" line now and amounts decreasing from about 1" there to a dusting around 78. Hey, I want to see some flakes, lol, and while this difference for us in the Edison area might only be ~1/2", the difference between 1/2" and 0" is well, 1/2". I know this is splitting hairs on a nuisance event, but yeah, I'd like to at least see a little snow out of this.
Essentially every 18Z model is snowier for CNJ/NYC for tomorrow than it was at 12Z (except the Euro of course - damn model, lol). Just looking at MBY in the Edison area, as an example over an average of about 7 global/regional model forecast accumulations went from about 0.2" to 0.7" with a couple of models now showing over 1". May not sound like much, but 1/2" to 1" is way more, relatively speaking than a whiff to a dusting and also means we may overperform even more, given trends in the actual storm being stronger to the north than it was modeled, along its path. Models are also now showing about 1-2" near and along 95/276 now and with forecast amounts of 2-4" across much of SNJ/Philly with advisories up, I wouldn't be surprised to see Mt. Holly bump up forecast amounts soon in their maps. NYC maybe too - they might even get a coating. And the NAM keeps showing 6-10" for AC to Cape May.
Edit: NWS did just up forecast snowfall amounts across the board...
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Light snow is already falling in Cherry Hill. I have a nasty feeling that this storm will produce at least a little more than currently projected. That's not surprising given all the uncertainties that go into weather forecasting. I hope everyone is careful driving and (if necessary) shoveling.
Ouch, indeed.Whoa @e5fdny ! NWS in DC/Balt has responded to the significant increase in the model consensus forecasts and upped the snowfall amounts for the entire region (as did Mt. Holly for Del/SE NJ/SE PA), with Baltimore now forecast to get 4-6" and DC 6-8". All due to the coastal low being forecasted to be stronger and closer to the coast, meaning accumulating snows until at least noon in DC/Balt and possibly through the afternoon, although at a lighter rate. Same for Wilmington (now ~4") and towards Philly (now ~2") with increased snowfall forecasts Sunday morning until noon or so. Your drive keeps getting harder, sorry.
E5dny, I think you'll be fine. There won't be much down by the time you're here and gone...
As far as I know, most of that is virga, i.e., snow that evaporates before reaching the ground, as the column is fairly dry. That's why we're unlikely to get much snow. There is a balance right now between snow evaporating and adding moisture to the column vs. fresh cold, dry air arriving from our north. The precip rate needs to exceed the dry air intrusion rate for awhile to bring the column to saturation, which would then allow the snowflakes to not melt and reach the ground. Still hoping for 1/2" here. Doubt you get much if anything...Why does it look like the snow is coming farther north on the radar?
1 a.m. and not a sinlgle flake has fallen in Yardley, Pa. it seems to have been right on our doorstep for the last three hours, but can’t seem to break through here. Fine with me; I’d love to never see snow again ... or at least never shovel it again.
Woke up to a gorgeous 1/4" layer of pixie dust on everything and it's snowing lightly, but likely to stop soon. Better go stock up on milk and bread, lol. Could get a little bit more later this morning. Reports of a few inches south of Philly to Toms River and up to 6" in DC so far. Time to go play soccer...
Yup, it was a dusting of a dusting, but the daughter was still happy to see a little snow.
From Asbury Park Press :
Ocean, Burlington, Camden, Atlantic, Cape May, Salem and Gloucester counties are under a winter weather advisory until 4 a.m. Monday. The National Weather Service advised motorists to expect slippery roads and poor visibility.
Residents of southwest New Jersey can expect snow to taper off by the evening, according to the forecast. Accumulations of 4 inches are possible.
Ocean, Burlington, Camden, Atlantic, Cape May, Salem and Gloucester counties are under a winter weather advisory until 4 a.m. Monday. The National Weather Service advised motorists to expect slippery roads and poor visibility.
Residents of southwest New Jersey can expect snow to taper off by the evening, according to the forecast. Accumulations of 4 inches are possible.
Looks like one week from today we could be getting some substantial snowfall here in Central New Jersey.
Woke up to snow. Don't care it's less than .5"
It's all #s fault. Boooooooooo!
It's all #s fault. Boooooooooo!
How the mighty have fallen...4 page thread on pixie dust for anyone north of Trenton
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Probably because I was the only one who measured. Also, the people I was playing soccer with mostly thought it was a dusting, so there's a perception issue. 1/4" ain't that much and it was exactly 1/4". I saw a report of 1/2" in EB, so 1/4" here makes sense.
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