Some changes to NCAA selection committee criteria.

[bac2therac]

Going to make my job a bit tougher crunching numbers

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketbal...ion-committee-adjusts-team-sheets-emphasizing

gone is the straight reliance on top 25 rpi record, top 50 rpi record, top 100 rpi record. Now they have divided things into quadrants 1-4 which adjust based on whether the game is home or road.

The breakdown will be as follows:
Quadrant 1: Home 1-30; Neutral 1-50; Away 1-75
Quadrant 2: Home 31-75; Neutral 51-100; Away 76-135
Quadrant 3: Home 76-160; Neutral 101-200; Away 136-240
Quadrant 4: Home 161-plus; Neutral 201-plus; Away 241-plus.

For example SHU loss to 206 Rutgers would have been a very bad loss grouped into the last rpi catatory losses to plus 150 rpi schools, now taking into consideration it was on the road, it now becomes a quadrant 3 loss.


also this is the first year that the NCAA sheet on each school with officially have other rating metrics like Ken Pom, Sagarin, BPI, etc. Its uncertain how much they will rely on those ratings or the average of ratings over the overall rpi.

the conclusion is road wins are going to be heavily weighted going forward.

 

[bac2therac]

more material to read

https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...n-an-ncaa-tournament-resume-may-surprise-you/


The other change was to include the rankings from six other metrics at the top. Those numbers have been available to the committee for a few years now, but on a separate spreadsheet. They were added here to make it easier for committee members to see all the data in one place.

Note what is not included on the team sheets:

• Conference record and standings: There is a long held belief that how you do in your conference matters, but it doesn't. The only conference data on this page is a team's strength of schedule within its conference. That is a relatively recent addition resulting from nearly every conference having an unbalanced schedule.
• Ken Pomeroy groupings:I cannot tell you how often I see people arguing for or against a team based how they have done based on some arbitrary grouping of teams in Pomeroy's rankings. And by arbitrary, I mean people draw lines wherever it suits them ("they have three sub-90 losses in KenPom"). As you can see, the committee does not consider that at all. All groupings are RPI-based.
• Record in last X-number of games: A long time ago, the committee used to consider how a team finished the season and included a team's record in its most recent 12 games. Before that, it was 10 games. However, that was removed over a decade ago when the committee decided that it was necessary to take a more holistic approach to the season. Now, games in November mean just as much as games in March.

 

[G- RUnit]

While you and all the bracketologists do an amazing job, I would love to see you guys also predict seedings, which in the grand scheme of things, is far more important.

 

[bac2therac]

I do predict seedings in my final bracket...didnt do too bad last year.

 

[MGSA99]

Means bupkis to us.

 

[bac2therac]

Group
Record
1
1 - 7
2
0 - 4
3
2 - 2
4
8 - 2

 

[nj124]

Means bupkis to us.

I disagree in the "longer run". The NCAA release says
But the most seismic shift could be felt in one or two-bid leagues, hoping to land at-large spots based on playing a strong road/neutral schedule.
When we improve a few years from now, I hope we don't get caught losing a bid to this new group of "2 bid conferences".

Also, no mention of the NIT, but since the NCAA runs the NIT, i would not be surprised if this eventually also affects NIT at-large bids.

 

[bac2therac]

this year the Big 10 as a whole had a ridiculous easy SOS and when they played top schools they lost...but the biggest downfall was scheduling so poorly. I hope Delaney has some words with ADs in this conference about the need to schedule up. I think no conference suffered more in this new way of calculating quadrants than the Big 10. As a whole the Big 10 rpis are trash. Even Michigan State is lagging badly and that may effect their shot at a #1 seed. RU at 208 or 206 is absolutely abomindable and they are one of the worst offenders on non conference schedule strength

Pike better start scheduling road games. 22 home games is absurd. Never seen any school do that. The program can only take a leap forward by toughening up the team and giving them opportunities and challenges..if 3 or 4 years from now RU is contending for a NCAA bid, they better have a good number of road or neutral tests...quite frankly RU needs to stop playing these ridiculous round robin slate of 6 Bumblebee State schools will all play each other

 

[BigEastPhil]

this year the Big 10 as a whole had a ridiculous easy SOS and when they played top schools they lost...but the biggest downfall was scheduling so poorly. I hope Delaney has some words with ADs in this conference about the need to schedule up. I think no conference suffered more in this new way of calculating quadrants than the Big 10. As a whole the Big 10 rpis are trash. Even Michigan State is lagging badly and that may effect their shot at a #1 seed. RU at 208 or 206 is absolutely abomindable and they are one of the worst offenders on non conference schedule strength

Pike better start scheduling road games. 22 home games is absurd. Never seen any school do that. The program can only take a leap forward by toughening up the team and giving them opportunities and challenges..if 3 or 4 years from now RU is contending for a NCAA bid, they better have a good number of road or neutral tests...quite frankly RU needs to stop playing these ridiculous round robin slate of 6 Bumblebee State schools will all play each other

Next Years' OOC Road Games:

- At UMass
- At Fordham
- At Seton Hall
- At ACC Team (ACC Challenge)

 

[bac2therac]

thats good to hear

RU wasnt in the Big East challenge this year so I would think its coming and should be a home game.

 

[BigEastPhil]

thats good to hear

RU wasnt in the Big East challenge this year so I would think its coming and should be a home game.

I think BE Challenge will be a home game and I think Pikiell mentioned at a recent Court Club Meeting.

Thus if we play 30 games next year, 14 will be road games (10 Big 10 + 4 OOC Games above) - so only 16 home games - resulting in cheaper season ticket cost than this years' 22 games...yowzer!

 

[bac2therac]

thats a great deal.....the move to 20 conference games is a game changer I think, it underscores that this league HAS to schedule tough and do well

 

[BigEastPhil]

thats a great deal.....the move to 20 conference games is a game changer I think, it underscores that this league HAS to schedule tough and do well

20 game conference schedule takes effect next year.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

There's really limited games at home that aren't relevant with 20 B1G games and 2 will be mixed in late November and early December...so mix the road games in and you have few games that don't matter at the RAC next year.

RU has a chance in 2019-2020 to be a participant in the Garf game that had Duke vs St. Johns....why that type of game is important for the RU brand and growth is it's MSG, you get a big name OOC team and you create recruiting momentum, even if you don't win....

 

[knights1212]

We should definitely get a home game in the Gavitt games. We were at St. John's in the fall of 2015 and at Depaul in the fall of 2016. We did not participate in the fall of 2017. I would guess we would play St. John's, Depaul or Georgetown at home.

 

[G- RUnit]

Put Princeton back on schedule. Good to play teams with different tempos.

 

[G- RUnit]

I disagree in the "longer run". The NCAA release says
But the most seismic shift could be felt in one or two-bid leagues, hoping to land at-large spots based on playing a strong road/neutral schedule.
When we improve a few years from now, I hope we don't get caught losing a bid to this new group of "2 bid conferences".

Also, no mention of the NIT, but since the NCAA runs the NIT, i would not be surprised if this eventually also affects NIT at-large bids.

I am kind of sympathetic to the one bid league where team has great year and unfortunately loses in its tourney and never gets a taste. Leaving out Monmouth a few years ago was ridiculous.

 

[nj124]

I am kind of sympathetic to the one bid league where team has great year and unfortunately loses in its tourney and never gets a taste. Leaving out Monmouth a few years ago was ridiculous.

G- I actually agree with you, Monmouth getting screwed had to be fixed. The problem is that Rutgers is "X" years away and with these new rules it may take 1 or even 2 more wins than we thought to get to the NCAA, or even NIT, in 2021 or 2022.

 

[BigRnj]

I do predict seedings in my final bracket...didnt do too bad last year.

But can you hit a foul shot?

 

[huskersalways]

Bac, here is an article showing an interesting take on RPI. Not sure I agree with all he says but an interesting read for a bracket guy like you.

http://www.omaha.com/huskers/blogs/...cle_1224d3c6-11a7-11e8-86b9-c3eba667942d.html

 

[BigEastPhil]

The new criteria: Does Michigan State pass the eye test for a 3 seed?.....LMAO....if any squad should be a 1 seed as of now, It's Michigan State.

And Monmouth should have made the NCAA's 2 years ago with their OOC Schedule and the wins they had against major P5 Schools

 

[bac2therac]

Rhode Island has a rpi of 5

Michigan State had a deplorable nonconference sos of 242..thats inexcusable, Nebraska is 287, Michigan 279, PSU 264....Rutgers 328...so many Big 10 schools with pathetic schedule

 

[BigEastPhil]

Rhode Island has a rpi of 5

Michigan State had a deplorable nonconference sos of 242..thats inexcusable, Nebraska is 287, Michigan 279, PSU 264....Rutgers 328...so many Big 10 schools with pathetic schedule

Mich State would easily handle URI. SOS for so many Big 10 sqauds are awful because the entire bottom half of the Big 10 is awful (Iowa; Illinois; Rutgers; Minny; Wisconsin - UGH). As awful for a P5 / P6 Conference that I have ever seen. Michigan State played Duke; played Notre Dame (who is not doing well); UNC and UConn (down this year) OOC and only plays Purdue and I believe Ohio State once this season in conference. You can't dispute the strength / objective of MSU's OOC Schedule. Big 10 should make a concerted effort to match up its top tier teams for home and homes each year - though granted no one saw Ohio State and Minnesota with bi-polar records. Regardless to me seedings are irrelevant in the Big Dance. You just need to win; survive and advance.

 

[bac2therac]

Northwestern and Minnesota were supposed to be top 4...OSU and Nebby in the bottom 4, I think that screwed things up with scheduling although there is no excuse why MSU didnt meet Purdue 2x

 

[G- RUnit]

Mich State would easily handle URI. SOS for so many Big 10 sqauds are awful because the entire bottom half of the Big 10 is awful (Iowa; Illinois; Rutgers; Minny; Wisconsin - UGH). As awful for a P5 / P6 Conference that I have ever seen. Michigan State played Duke; played Notre Dame (who is not doing well); UNC and UConn (down this year) OOC and only plays Purdue and I believe Ohio State once this season in conference. You can't dispute the strength / objective of MSU's OOC Schedule. Big 10 should make a concerted effort to match up its top tier teams for home and homes each year - though granted no one saw Ohio State and Minnesota with bi-polar records. Regardless to me seedings are irrelevant in the Big Dance. You just need to win; survive and advance.

Can not disagree with you more. Seedings make all the difference in the world in the Big Dance.