Very rough first crack at Bacatology
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
13 maybe with a tiebreak and guess what..we own the tiebreak with Sparty and the Buckeyes
Michigan needs to keep winning, its an okay profile but not enough given how many games left, their loss total is pretty large right now too
keeps KSU alive but the Cyclones resume is taking on water, no sure thing for them
that Oregon loss is deadly, they are going to suffer alot in the NET
We want Michigan to stay Q1 but it's unlikely that all four of Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, and Wisconsin* stay Q1. Realistic hope is that three of them do.
*The home game. The road win we just got will be Q1 no matter what.
There is LITTLE difference between Q1 and Q2 losses, only losses that matter are Q3 and Q4.
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yes there is and in fact that Q1s and 2s and are split up.... a Q2 road win at a school like Penn State isnt really as impressive as it sounds
I do not want Michigan competing for a bid, rather have them lose, they likely drop from Q1 tomorrow
Washington State loses at home to Arizona State. Get them out of my face.
They need to win 2/3 on the road at Oregon, UCLA, USC to even get back in the picture now.
Their NET will drop out of the top 50 finally.
They need to win 2/3 on the road at Oregon, UCLA, USC to even get back in the picture now.
Their NET will drop out of the top 50 finally.
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Ohio State currently only has 18 games on their schedule, as they have not rescheduled home games against Nebraska and Iowa. I don't know if league rules will rank then by winning % or by W/L like traditional baseball standings show many games back a team is.
They just got added.
2/15 vs. Minnesota (makeup)
2/19 vs. Iowa
2/21 vs. Indiana (moved)
2/24 at Illinois
2/27 at Maryland
3/1 vs. Nebraska (makeup)
3/3 vs. Michigan State
3/6 vs. Michigan
Lotta home games left for them but lots of short turnarounds for them too.
There's some kind of pun to be made with the Super Bowl and soup bubbles but I couldn't land it. Here's your bubble chaos rooting guide. Not formatted as I'm typing on my phone.
St. John's over UConn - Huskies are in, I just think this would be funny. Tune in and cheer for Montez.
Colorado State vs. Boise State - Take your pick, both are on the 8/9 line. A home loss is worse but isn't sufficiently bad to knock Boise to the last 8 in bubble.
Illinois over Northwestern - We want a fat and happy Illini team on Wednesday.
Northern Iowa over Loyola Chicago - A Q3 home loss likely kills their at large case, or at least sends it to the hospital.
Old Dominion over UAB - ODU stinks but you never know with road games.
Purdue over Maryland - Come on Boilers don't cheapen our win.
Iowa over Nebraska - Same for you, Hawkeyes.
That's all I got. Monmouth faces Iona in what should be a decent game but no bubble implications.
St. John's over UConn - Huskies are in, I just think this would be funny. Tune in and cheer for Montez.
Colorado State vs. Boise State - Take your pick, both are on the 8/9 line. A home loss is worse but isn't sufficiently bad to knock Boise to the last 8 in bubble.
Illinois over Northwestern - We want a fat and happy Illini team on Wednesday.
Northern Iowa over Loyola Chicago - A Q3 home loss likely kills their at large case, or at least sends it to the hospital.
Old Dominion over UAB - ODU stinks but you never know with road games.
Purdue over Maryland - Come on Boilers don't cheapen our win.
Iowa over Nebraska - Same for you, Hawkeyes.
That's all I got. Monmouth faces Iona in what should be a decent game but no bubble implications.
A a
Lots of home games but wow. Do they go to classes? ;-). Will they have anything left for the tourneys?
It’s going to be interesting watching the Bracketologist’s heads explode as they are not going to know how to deal with RU.
Kudos to the first talking head that suggests it might be time to rethink the NET.
Kudos to the first talking head that suggests it might be time to rethink the NET.
yeah I never understood why some had them so close to getting in...forget about now
M
Michigan has the cache to get a NCAA bid with a mediocre record moreso than Rutgers.
Michigan is horrible. Sweep them and keep them out. If the name on the front of their Jersey was Minnesota with the same resume they’re so out
They have a tough go ahead of them. Hope in free fall. Although never thought they would beat Purdue so who knows?
I cannot believe Palm has WVU in his field right now with UAB being their only road win. They beat Clemson in a neutral game too and that’s it. Their only win over a tourney team is at home against UConn. Based on his principles I don’t get that.
he is absurd, I tweeted at him. Also has Florida in...combined those teams are 2-15 vs the field...plus wvu is only 4 games above 500 which is a pet peeve of his
Monday bubble chaos rooting guide:
Washington State at Oregon (56%) - Wazzu's chances took a major hit with a home loss to Arizona State. There's a path back with three straight road games against Oregon, UCLA, and USC but they probably need to win 2 of the 3. Oregon also took a major hit with a home loss to California, but Lunardi still has them as a Last 4 Bye which seems ambitious.
Saint Louis at St. Bonaventure (50%) - A rematch from Friday where the Bonnies won at SLU and knocked them out of the field. A payback road win could offset that to some degree. Honestly if St. Bonaventure wins this then their path to an at-large will look better than SLU's.
West Virginia at Kansas State (64%) - Just want the Mountaineers to keep piling losses.
Dayton (57%) at Rhode Island - Dayton is starting to pop up on a few brackets but I don't know if THREE Q4 losses is something you can overcome. I suppose if they finish 23-8 (15-3) but those losses would be a huge anchor. URI just dented Davidson's resume, can they do it again to Dayton?
Virginia at Virginia Tech (72%) - Weird game where Virginia has the better resume but Virginia Tech has weirdly good computer numbers. The Hokies have ZERO Q1 wins and maybe only one chance left, depending on where Miami winds up in the NET. Virginia is like us, their resume is better than their NET rating: 6-5 in the first two quadrants, but they have three Q3 losses weighing them down. This game and their next two (at Miami, vs. Duke) are Q1 so they have more chances than Tech.
And then the unlikely candidates...
Georgetown at Creighton (88%) - I've made my feelings on Georgetown clear. They play some of the worst basketball I've seen from a high-major team since the Eddie Jordan days. When I would watch Nebraska, I would recognize the bad, selfish, dumb basketball being played but I always thought "they're gonna pick one or two teams off in the Big Ten." I do not have that feeling with Georgetown even a little bit. Creighton is not a good team either but they know how to capitalize when the other team gives them free possessions, takes dumb shots, doesn't box out, etc. Blue Jays will easily win this game, and if they somehow didn't it would be poison to their resume.
Duquesne at Davidson (92%) - Q4 game should be no issue for Davidson.
Washington State at Oregon (56%) - Wazzu's chances took a major hit with a home loss to Arizona State. There's a path back with three straight road games against Oregon, UCLA, and USC but they probably need to win 2 of the 3. Oregon also took a major hit with a home loss to California, but Lunardi still has them as a Last 4 Bye which seems ambitious.
Saint Louis at St. Bonaventure (50%) - A rematch from Friday where the Bonnies won at SLU and knocked them out of the field. A payback road win could offset that to some degree. Honestly if St. Bonaventure wins this then their path to an at-large will look better than SLU's.
West Virginia at Kansas State (64%) - Just want the Mountaineers to keep piling losses.
Dayton (57%) at Rhode Island - Dayton is starting to pop up on a few brackets but I don't know if THREE Q4 losses is something you can overcome. I suppose if they finish 23-8 (15-3) but those losses would be a huge anchor. URI just dented Davidson's resume, can they do it again to Dayton?
Virginia at Virginia Tech (72%) - Weird game where Virginia has the better resume but Virginia Tech has weirdly good computer numbers. The Hokies have ZERO Q1 wins and maybe only one chance left, depending on where Miami winds up in the NET. Virginia is like us, their resume is better than their NET rating: 6-5 in the first two quadrants, but they have three Q3 losses weighing them down. This game and their next two (at Miami, vs. Duke) are Q1 so they have more chances than Tech.
And then the unlikely candidates...
Georgetown at Creighton (88%) - I've made my feelings on Georgetown clear. They play some of the worst basketball I've seen from a high-major team since the Eddie Jordan days. When I would watch Nebraska, I would recognize the bad, selfish, dumb basketball being played but I always thought "they're gonna pick one or two teams off in the Big Ten." I do not have that feeling with Georgetown even a little bit. Creighton is not a good team either but they know how to capitalize when the other team gives them free possessions, takes dumb shots, doesn't box out, etc. Blue Jays will easily win this game, and if they somehow didn't it would be poison to their resume.
Duquesne at Davidson (92%) - Q4 game should be no issue for Davidson.
Lunardi has Mississippi State (0 road wins, 1-7 Q1, two Q3 losses) as his 7th team out. I do not understand how Rutgers is not ahead of that team at this point. Their two wins away from home are in OT over Richmond in the Bahamas, and they somehow get credit for playing in Jackson, MS against Winthrop as a "neutral" site.
Oregon cannot afford to lose this game...they are straddling the last in last out line right now. '
Va Tech is a longshot now, I fear Virginia more because they have wins over Duke and Providence. Root hard for Va Tech here
Mississippi State and Florida are trash, fully convinced its Palm and Lunardi shilling for the SEC
Va Tech is a longshot now, I fear Virginia more because they have wins over Duke and Providence. Root hard for Va Tech here
Mississippi State and Florida are trash, fully convinced its Palm and Lunardi shilling for the SEC
2 reasons: 1). Purdue and their weak guards except for Ivey are being exposed as is their mediocre at best defense hovering about 110 in Kenpom 2). They just beat Illinois handily in front of 15,000 fans at home on Tuesday night for first place and were due for a let down that was made worse by having to play Michigan 2 nights later on the road as a rescheduled Covid game due to Michigan ‘s early Covid pause.
I've seen Kansas State replace our old hillbilly friends on the bubble in a few brackets today, but I guess we still don't want them picking up a road win..?
