Very rough first crack at Bacatology

[needmorecowbell]

The bracketmatrix is great for data nerds. Right now Rutgers is in 2 brackets as 12 seeds. I just hope the committee values who you beat more than who you lost to.

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2023

 

[GRU23]

Thanks @bac2therac and @kcg88

 

[G- RUnit]

BAC’s stuff as good or better than anybody’s. Pleasure and fun to read. My favorite time of year.

UConn confounding. Not a great loss today. How many bids will Big East get? Think SHU could do some damage. Having said that would love to get them again. Aiken is 25? Wasn’t Andrew Gaze like 30?

 

[bac2therac]

This is all useless if we don't beat Wisconsin but I like tracking this stuff anyway so here's your Friday/Saturday bubble rooting guide:

Friday
St. Bonaventure at Saint Louis (76%) - Bonnies had all the hype in the A-10 but they've piled up too many losses for an at-large case. Saint Louis is the 5th team out at the moment on Bracket Matrix. A home loss would be tough at this point.

Fresno State at Colorado State (61%) - CSU currently sits on the 9 line on the matrix. A loss to a solid Fresno State squad wouldn't knock them out but it'd shorten their margin for error. CSU is 18-3 but 6 of their final 7 are tossups (between 34-61% chance of victory).

UNLV at Boise State (79%) - Boise State is even safer than Colorado State, but a loss here weakens the overall MWC profile a bit.

Nevada at Utah State (88%) - Utah State has great computer numbers but two Q4 losses are holding them back. Only in 8 brackets on the matrix. Another ugly loss would mean they'd probably need to sweep @SDSU, @Boise, and Colorado State to recover.

Saturday
San Francisco at Santa Clara (52%) - The Dons are squarely on the bubble. They're currently the last 10 seed but about a third of the brackets aren't yet updated to include their loss to Portland. If they lose here they likely need to win at St. Mary's or home vs. Gonzaga.

Indiana at Michigan State (65%) - We want Sparty to stay Q1.

West Virginia at Oklahoma State (60%) - WVU snapped a 7-game losing streak last time out. They're currently the 3rd team out and maybe the most bubbly of all the bubble teams. Oklahoma State is ineligible for the tournament so we want them taking out as many Big 12 bubble teams as possible.

Notre Dame at Clemson (59%) - Notre Dame is one of the last 4 in at the moment. Plus, obviously, Rutgers beat Clemson.

Murray State (64%) at Morehead State - Murray State would still have an at-large case even with a loss, but they may not be able to withstand a loss to Morehead AND a home loss to Belmont later in the year.

Kansas State at Iowa State - Honestly take your pick. Iowa State is still very safe despite a 3-8 Big 12 record, but I can see them finishing 6-12 and I don't know if the committee has the stomach to put a 6-12 team in even with a 13-0 non-conference record, including some very good wins. On the other hand, Kansas State is clinging to life (listed on just 4 brackets) and they need a road win like this for some juice.

Mississippi State at LSU (75%) - LSU also very safely in despite a recent losing streak. Miss State is in the "next four out" group right now. A road win here would vault them up very close to the field if not in.

Davidson (57%) at Rhode Island - Davidson has a solid at-large resume but they've been playing with fire. It's been a month since they've won a game by double digits.

Miami at Wake Forest (73%) - Take your pick. Miami is an 11, Wake Forest is a 10. The home loss would obviously be more damaging, but perhaps not damaging enough to knock Wake down to the true last 4 in/out bubble.

Oklahoma at Kansas (82%) - Oklahoma is sitting as the last 11 seed. A loss here won't drop them, but a win would put them solidly in.

TCU at Texas Tech (82%) - TCU is solidly in as of now on the 9 line, but they have a mediocre NET (55) and their remaining schedule is a bear: Kansas twice, Texas Tech twice, Baylor and Texas once. They could start piling up losses and fall to the bubble.

Memphis at Houston (88%) - This would be a signature road win for Memphis. They need to beat Houston at least once in their two matchups to get into the picture.

Florida State at North Carolina (77%) - Anything to weaken the Heels' resume is good. UNC sitting on the 11 line because they haven't taken a loss outside the first quadrant. This would be Q3.

Florida at Kentucky (89%) - Florida is the first team out right now. They can handle a loss but a big road win puts them solidly in.

SMU at East Carolina (71%) - SMU just upset Houston to start climbing into the fringes of the conversation. This would shut that down.

Creighton (70%) at Georgetown - The Hoyas just lost to a DePaul team missing like three players, and Patrick Ewing is going to get fired any minute. They have absolutely quit on the season. I can't believe KenPom says Creighton only has a 70% chance here. I would be stunned if Georgetown even keeps is close. Creighton is "last four in" so this would be a hideous loss for them, but they're going to win with ease.

California at Oregon (83%) - Also not happening. Cal is really bad. Devastating for Oregon if they somehow lose.

Arizona State at Washington State (87%) - A win does nothing for the Cougars but a loss realistically ends things for them.

Lafayette at Lehigh (66%) - Just watch how bad this game is and wonder how the hell Rutgers was lucky to go 1-1 against these teams.

There are a few others (BYU, Wyoming, Belmont) but they're so likely to win I didn't bother listing them.

good results...Utah State, St Louis and Iona go down. St Louis the one that was closest to the field but now really move toward a real longshot.

 

[kcg88]

Lots of teams on the fringes have been going down. Now I'd like to see some teams projected on the 9-12 line start to lose. Only guarantee today is the Miami-Wake game.

 

[bac2therac]

Down 2 in the NET this morning, falling from 92 to 94. Shows how tight the gradient is.


St Louis took the biggest tumble down to 61 from 49.

 

[Scarlet Blind]

St Bonaventure resume Q1/2 5-6, good for high-mid
#88 Q1 3-3 Q2 2-3 Q3 1-1 Q4 8-0
H loss 106 N.Iowa 80-90
N loss 44 VA Tech 49-86
@ 62 Dayton 50-68
Has 3 Q3 left and a Q2 to get there.

The NET really seems to punish home losses and/or blowout losses.

#53 TCU 16-5 4-3, 3-2, 3-0, 6-0
4 losses by 66 points combined, 3 at home
#50 BYU 16-8 4-4, 4-3, 2-0, 6-1, L @ 282 Pacific by 3
BYU 2 losses Gonzaga 26, *33 at home*, *H SF by 14*
#72 Miami 17-7 2-1, 5-4, 6-2, 4-0
3 losses combine 61 pts. H losses 91 UCF, 97 FSU
#90 Stanford 14-10 4-7, 2-3, 3-0, 5-0
4 losses by 105 points, 1 at home
#91 UCF 14-8 2-5, 3-1, 2-2, 8-0
4 losses by 66 pts, 1 at home


Blowout loss ❌, home loss ❌
Home blowout loss ❌❌

 

[kcg88]

Creighton missing one of their key guys (Kaluma) against Georgetown today. I still think they get it done but worth monitoring.

 

[bac2therac]

St Bonaventure is not a bubble team unless they win their last 6

 

[kcg88]

If anyone is pining for the Eddie Jordan days just watch Georgetown. They're not overmatched athletically but there's just a very low skill level and the effort and decision making are brutal.

 

[fatsam98]

If anyone is pining for the Eddie Jordan days just watch Georgetown. They're not overmatched athletically but there's just a very low skill level and the effort and decision making are brutal.

Wow you're not kidding, they look like they don't care at all. Zero effort

 

[bac2therac]

Merrimack, Lafayette, and UMass all win

 

[FrankZ]

Alright get bac to work, lol

 

[RUsojo]

Just gotta fade the Penn St blunder or opening conference tournament game blunder and ya gotta feel pretty good.

 

[RW90]

Never thought I'd say this but would've loved a SHU win.

 

[Pancho1939]

BAC how many wins do we need out of next 6 to be a lock?

 

[GRU23]

Basically just need to defend the rac at this point, but could be big if we can get wins at Indiana or Michigan if committee is being strict on how many B1G teams they’re letting in

 

[bac2therac]

BAC how many wins do we need out of next 6 to be a lock?

3 regular season

 

[fatsam98]

Looks like a lot of scores going our way today

 

[Nycrusupporter]

If we win our next game against Illinois, NET won’t matter, we could find ourselves in the AP top 25.

 

[bac2therac]

Updated so far

LAST FOUR BYES: COLORADO STATE, BYU, OREGON, NORTH CAROLINA
LAST FOUR IN: MICHIGAN, RUTGERS, MIAMI, OKLAHOMA

FIRST 4 OUT: SAN FRANCISCO, LOYOLA, STANFORD, SAN DIEGO STATE
NEXT 4 OUT: VIRGINIA, FLORIDA, KANSAS STATE, SMU

 

[bac2therac]

West Virginia got hammered today by Oklahoma State

Oklahoma lost a heartbreaker to Kansas

 

[RU23]

Who do I root for in IU-MSU? I tend to think it doesn’t matter, right? Both games are Quad 1 (home vs. MSU and @IU)

 

[bac2therac]

Deep dive on Monday so this is just some rough eyeballing at this point.....I will take tips in advance for the book im writing for the first real bracketology analysis

 

[bac2therac]

Who do I root for in IU-MSU? I tend to think it doesn’t matter, right? Both games are Quad 1 (home vs. MSU and @IU)

definitely Michigan State., because we beat them and want them to stay in Q1 and because Indiana could play their way out of the ncaa tourney opening up a spot

 

[RU23]

definitely Michigan State., because we beat them and want them to stay in Q1 and because Indiana could play their way out of the ncaa tourney opening up a spot

Gotcha, though I did notice if MSU loses…. I think we’re in double bye territory in the B1G Tourney….wtffffff lol

They won’t lose, though.

 

[fatsam98]

Cal up big on Oregon at the break. Not sure how much that helps if it holds

 

[RuSnp]

definitely Michigan State., because we beat them and want them to stay in Q1 and because Indiana could play their way out of the ncaa tourney opening up a spot

Not arguing but I am pulling for Indiana because I want the #4 spot/double bye.

 

[bac2therac]

Cal up big on Oregon at the break. Not sure how much that helps if it holds

''it would be a really bad loss for Oregon who has some bad losses already...they and Oregon would actually have quite similar profiles

 

[RUJMM78]

Michigan State had a seven point lead which is now down to one point with 16 minutes remaining.Their offense really is weak.

 

[scarletknight077]

Is it better to finish in the top 4 and get the double bye but not get a b10 tourney win or to finish 5-8 and get one conf win? Or if we finish top 4 we’re a lock anyway?

 

[bac2therac]

if RU is finishing in the top 4, they are dancing no question

 

[bac2therac]

Miami wins at Wake, bolsters their resume and despite the 20-6 mark Wake is in a bit of trouble no sure thing with a very weak resume

 

[RUBlackout]

Do we want Michigan to lose tonight?

 

[kcg88]

Do we want Michigan to lose tonight?

No, we want them to stay Q1.

 

[kcg88]

Great results if you're rooting for a wider bubble so far today.

Davidson dented their at large case.

Oklahoma and Seton Hall missed huge road wins.

Oklahoma State blew out WVU.

Wake Forest took a home loss, though Miami bolstered their resume with that win.

Memphis beating Houston is bad, but I still don't see the American getting three bids anyway. The one bid dream was nice while it lasted.

Oregon getting smacked at home is real rough for them.

 

[Joey Bags]

I’d gain 25% more respect for Indiana if they’d ditch the clown pants

 

[kcg88]

I’d gain 25% more respect for Indiana if they’d ditch the clown pants

I love them. It makes it that much funnier when they lose.

 

[kcg88]

Brutal home loss for Iowa State, choking away a big lead to Kansas State. They could legitimately finish 6-12 or worse in the Big Ten.

 

[kcg88]

14 point home loss to California is gonna be a NET killer for Oregon.