The bracketmatrix is great for data nerds. Right now Rutgers is in 2 brackets as 12 seeds. I just hope the committee values who you beat more than who you lost to.
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This is all useless if we don't beat Wisconsin but I like tracking this stuff anyway so here's your Friday/Saturday bubble rooting guide:
Friday
St. Bonaventure at Saint Louis (76%) - Bonnies had all the hype in the A-10 but they've piled up too many losses for an at-large case. Saint Louis is the 5th team out at the moment on Bracket Matrix. A home loss would be tough at this point.
Fresno State at Colorado State (61%) - CSU currently sits on the 9 line on the matrix. A loss to a solid Fresno State squad wouldn't knock them out but it'd shorten their margin for error. CSU is 18-3 but 6 of their final 7 are tossups (between 34-61% chance of victory).
UNLV at Boise State (79%) - Boise State is even safer than Colorado State, but a loss here weakens the overall MWC profile a bit.
Nevada at Utah State (88%) - Utah State has great computer numbers but two Q4 losses are holding them back. Only in 8 brackets on the matrix. Another ugly loss would mean they'd probably need to sweep @SDSU, @Boise, and Colorado State to recover.
Saturday
San Francisco at Santa Clara (52%) - The Dons are squarely on the bubble. They're currently the last 10 seed but about a third of the brackets aren't yet updated to include their loss to Portland. If they lose here they likely need to win at St. Mary's or home vs. Gonzaga.
Indiana at Michigan State (65%) - We want Sparty to stay Q1.
West Virginia at Oklahoma State (60%) - WVU snapped a 7-game losing streak last time out. They're currently the 3rd team out and maybe the most bubbly of all the bubble teams. Oklahoma State is ineligible for the tournament so we want them taking out as many Big 12 bubble teams as possible.
Notre Dame at Clemson (59%) - Notre Dame is one of the last 4 in at the moment. Plus, obviously, Rutgers beat Clemson.
Murray State (64%) at Morehead State - Murray State would still have an at-large case even with a loss, but they may not be able to withstand a loss to Morehead AND a home loss to Belmont later in the year.
Kansas State at Iowa State - Honestly take your pick. Iowa State is still very safe despite a 3-8 Big 12 record, but I can see them finishing 6-12 and I don't know if the committee has the stomach to put a 6-12 team in even with a 13-0 non-conference record, including some very good wins. On the other hand, Kansas State is clinging to life (listed on just 4 brackets) and they need a road win like this for some juice.
Mississippi State at LSU (75%) - LSU also very safely in despite a recent losing streak. Miss State is in the "next four out" group right now. A road win here would vault them up very close to the field if not in.
Davidson (57%) at Rhode Island - Davidson has a solid at-large resume but they've been playing with fire. It's been a month since they've won a game by double digits.
Miami at Wake Forest (73%) - Take your pick. Miami is an 11, Wake Forest is a 10. The home loss would obviously be more damaging, but perhaps not damaging enough to knock Wake down to the true last 4 in/out bubble.
Oklahoma at Kansas (82%) - Oklahoma is sitting as the last 11 seed. A loss here won't drop them, but a win would put them solidly in.
TCU at Texas Tech (82%) - TCU is solidly in as of now on the 9 line, but they have a mediocre NET (55) and their remaining schedule is a bear: Kansas twice, Texas Tech twice, Baylor and Texas once. They could start piling up losses and fall to the bubble.
Memphis at Houston (88%) - This would be a signature road win for Memphis. They need to beat Houston at least once in their two matchups to get into the picture.
Florida State at North Carolina (77%) - Anything to weaken the Heels' resume is good. UNC sitting on the 11 line because they haven't taken a loss outside the first quadrant. This would be Q3.
Florida at Kentucky (89%) - Florida is the first team out right now. They can handle a loss but a big road win puts them solidly in.
SMU at East Carolina (71%) - SMU just upset Houston to start climbing into the fringes of the conversation. This would shut that down.
Creighton (70%) at Georgetown - The Hoyas just lost to a DePaul team missing like three players, and Patrick Ewing is going to get fired any minute. They have absolutely quit on the season. I can't believe KenPom says Creighton only has a 70% chance here. I would be stunned if Georgetown even keeps is close. Creighton is "last four in" so this would be a hideous loss for them, but they're going to win with ease.
California at Oregon (83%) - Also not happening. Cal is really bad. Devastating for Oregon if they somehow lose.
Arizona State at Washington State (87%) - A win does nothing for the Cougars but a loss realistically ends things for them.
Lafayette at Lehigh (66%) - Just watch how bad this game is and wonder how the hell Rutgers was lucky to go 1-1 against these teams.
There are a few others (BYU, Wyoming, Belmont) but they're so likely to win I didn't bother listing them.
Wow you're not kidding, they look like they don't care at all. Zero effortIf anyone is pining for the Eddie Jordan days just watch Georgetown. They're not overmatched athletically but there's just a very low skill level and the effort and decision making are brutal.
BAC how many wins do we need out of next 6 to be a lock?
definitely Michigan State., because we beat them and want them to stay in Q1 and because Indiana could play their way out of the ncaa tourney opening up a spotWho do I root for in IU-MSU? I tend to think it doesn’t matter, right? Both games are Quad 1 (home vs. MSU and @IU)
Gotcha, though I did notice if MSU loses…. I think we’re in double bye territory in the B1G Tourney….wtffffff loldefinitely Michigan State., because we beat them and want them to stay in Q1 and because Indiana could play their way out of the ncaa tourney opening up a spot
Not arguing but I am pulling for Indiana because I want the #4 spot/double bye.definitely Michigan State., because we beat them and want them to stay in Q1 and because Indiana could play their way out of the ncaa tourney opening up a spot
''it would be a really bad loss for Oregon who has some bad losses already...they and Oregon would actually have quite similar profilesCal up big on Oregon at the break. Not sure how much that helps if it holds
No, we want them to stay Q1.Do we want Michigan to lose tonight?
I love them. It makes it that much funnier when they lose.I’d gain 25% more respect for Indiana if they’d ditch the clown pants