New lax rankings

[Knight Owl]

Immediately after is irrelevant. By the end of the weekend UMD’s .85 win percentage will be added to RU’s RPI x2. Plus Robert Morris likely improves by 2 wins, Cuse by 1 and if we’re lucky Army by 1. Hopkins/OSU will offset. Brown will likely pick up a loss. All of that will offset the decline of our win percentage from .64 to .6. We should see a lift of about .01 in RPI which would move us up 4 spots if teams in front of us stay flat. A couple of teams in front of us may get a small lift but there is no one behind us with enough quality opponents remaining to jump us.

So with a LOSS to MD, RU will jump over Syracuse, Penn and UVA in the RPI...because the stars will align? A .01 increase in RPI (which won’t happen with a loss to MD) wouldn’t move RU up four spots. Nothing wrong with being a fan, but don’t mislead.

 

[Knight Owl]

A win vs MD moves RU up to 10th in RPI from 13th (ignoring all other games being played)....ahead of Syr, Penn and UVA. That would give RU wins over PSU, MD and Syr and the committee would have to respect that resume.

 

[Knight Owl]

RPI as of now. Robert Morris leads by 5 with one quarter to go in their game.
Rank Team RPI Sig Win Sig Loss (WLT) (WLT) (WLT) (WLT)
Rnk Value Rnk Value Rnk Value Total Road Neutral Home

1 Maryland 1 0.6619 67 0 25 2 11 2 0 5 0 0 1 0 0 5 2 0
2 Notre Dame 2 0.6369 69 0 1 4 8 5 0 3 3 0 1 0 0 4 2 0
3 Albany 3 0.6350 39 1 12 2 12 2 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 7 0 0
4 Yale 4 0.6337 60 1 39 2 12 2 0 6 0 0 0 1 0 6 1 0
5 Duke 5 0.6325 43 1 20 2 12 3 0 5 1 0 0 1 0 7 1 0
6 Loyola 6 0.6287 65 0 23 2 12 3 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 7 2 0
7 Johns Hopkins 7 0.6181 64 0 22 2 9 4 0 4 2 0 0 0 0 5 2 0
8 Denver 8 0.6122 61 0 61 0 11 2 0 6 2 0 0 0 0 5 0 0
9 Villanova 9 0.5944 56 1 38 2 10 4 0 6 0 0 1 0 0 3 4 0
10 Virginia 10 0.5861 57 1 58 1 12 5 0 5 1 0 2 0 0 5 4 0
11 Penn 11 0.5853 52 1 2 4 7 7 0 2 2 0 1 0 0 4 5 0
12 Syracuse 12 0.5817 10 3 10 3 7 6 0 2 2 0 0 1 0 5 3 0
13 Rutgers 13 0.5784 53 1 8 3 9 5 0 2 4 0 0 0 0 7 1 0
14 Bucknell 14 0.5749 14 2 4 3 11 4 0 6 2 0 0 0 0 5 2 0
15 Ohio State 15 0.5726 28 2 7 3 8 6 0 4 2 0 0 1 0 4 3 0
16 Cornell 16 0.5717 16 2 16 2 10 4 0 3 3 0 1 0 0 6 1 0
17 Navy 17 0.5676 26 2 26 2 9 5 0 5 2 0 0 2 0 4 1 0
18 Penn State 18 0.5550 8 3 28 2 8 6 0 3 1 0 1 1 0 4 4 0
19 Vermont 19 0.5506 71 0 57 1 11 3 0 6 2 0 1 1 0 4 0 0
20 Georgetown 20 0.5488 45 1 21 2 10 4 0 4 2 0 0 0 0 6 2 0
21 Michigan 21 0.5460 24 2 67 0 8 6 0 3 4 0 0 0 0 5 2 0
22 North Carolina 22 0.5457 27 2 27 2 7 7 0 1 4 0 0 1 0 6 2 0
23 Marquette 23 0.5450 23 2 24 2 6 7 0 2 3 0 1 1 0 3 3 0
24 Robert Morris 24 0.5435 32 2 32 2 10 4 0 7 1 0 0 0 0 3 3 0

 

[Knight Owl]

Sucks to be right all the time.
Rank Team RPI Sig Win Sig Loss (WLT) (WLT) (WLT) (WLT)
Rnk Value Rnk Value Rnk Value Total Road Neutral Home

1 Maryland 1 0.6670 67 0 25 2 12 2 0 5 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0
2 Notre Dame 2 0.6357 69 0 1 4 8 5 0 3 3 0 1 0 0 4 2 0
3 Albany 3 0.6352 38 1 12 2 12 2 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 7 0 0
4 Yale 4 0.6325 60 1 39 2 12 2 0 6 0 0 0 1 0 6 1 0
5 Duke 5 0.6316 42 1 20 2 12 3 0 5 1 0 0 1 0 7 1 0
6 Loyola 6 0.6288 65 0 23 2 12 3 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 7 2 0
7 Johns Hopkins 7 0.6229 64 0 22 2 10 4 0 4 2 0 1 0 0 5 2 0
8 Denver 8 0.6136 61 0 61 0 12 2 0 6 2 0 1 0 0 5 0 0
9 Villanova 9 0.5921 56 1 38 2 10 4 0 6 0 0 1 0 0 3 4 0
10 Virginia 10 0.5860 57 1 58 1 12 5 0 5 1 0 2 0 0 5 4 0
11 Penn 11 0.5852 51 1 2 4 7 7 0 2 2 0 1 0 0 4 5 0
12 Syracuse 12 0.5812 11 3 10 3 7 6 0 2 2 0 0 1 0 5 3 0
13 Rutgers 13 0.5771 53 1 8 3 9 6 0 2 4 0 0 1 0 7 1 0
14 Bucknell 14 0.5734 15 2 4 3 11 4 0 6 2 0 0 0 0 5 2 0
15 Cornell 15 0.5712 17 2 16 2 10 4 0 3 3 0 1 0 0 6 1 0
16 Navy 16 0.5677 26 2 26 2 9 5 0 5 2 0 0 2 0 4 1 0
17 Ohio State 17 0.5648 28 2 7 3 8 7 0 4 2 0 0 2 0 4 3 0
18 Vermont 18 0.5549 71 0 57 1 12 3 0 7 2 0 1 1 0 4 0 0
19 Penn State 19 0.5529 9 3 28 2 8 6 0 3 1 0 1 1 0 4 4 0
20 Georgetown 20 0.5485 44 1 21 2 10 4 0 4 2 0 0 0 0 6 2 0
21 Robert Morris 21 0.5482 52 1 32 2 11 4 0 7 1 0 1 0 0 3 3 0
22 UMass 22 0.5474 70 0 35 2 11 4 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 6 3 0
23 North Carolina 23 0.5459 27 2 27 2 7 7 0 1 4 0 0 1 0 6 2 0
24 Marquette 24 0.5448 24 2 24 2 6 8 0 2 3 0 1 2 0 3 3 0
25 Michigan 25 0.5436 8 3 67 0 8 6 0 3 4 0 0 0 0 5 2 0
26 Princeton 26 0.5381 29 2 54 1 8 5 0 2 4 0 0 0 0 6 1 0

 

[Knight Owl]

The calculations are LITERALLY being shown to you yet you keep telling everyone that they’re wrong and insulting them?? Dude..stop, please.

Wow I just literally posted the RPI's before and after today's loss to MD. Dude...stop, please.

 

[Caliknight]

They haven't been updated yet.

 

[Knight Owl]

You guys literally sound like Penn St fans sounded when they were confronted with multiple child rapes perpetrated by a 4.0 alumnus and coach.

 

[Knight Owl]

Here it is after Villanova's loss makes them 10-5.
Rank Team RPI Sig Win Sig Loss (WLT) (WLT) (WLT) (WLT)
Rnk Value Rnk Value Rnk Value Total Road Neutral Home

1 Maryland 1 0.6656 67 0 26 2 12 2 0 5 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0
2 Notre Dame 2 0.6362 69 0 1 4 8 5 0 3 3 0 1 0 0 4 2 0
3 Albany 3 0.6362 39 1 13 2 13 2 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 8 0 0
4 Duke 4 0.6321 43 1 21 2 12 3 0 5 1 0 0 1 0 7 1 0
5 Yale 5 0.6309 60 1 39 2 12 2 0 6 0 0 0 1 0 6 1 0
6 Loyola 6 0.6298 65 0 24 2 12 3 0 5 1 0 0 0 0 7 2 0
7 Johns Hopkins 7 0.6228 64 0 23 2 10 4 0 4 2 0 1 0 0 5 2 0
8 Denver 8 0.6120 61 0 61 0 12 2 0 6 2 0 1 0 0 5 0 0
9 Virginia 9 0.5864 57 1 58 1 12 5 0 5 1 0 2 0 0 5 4 0
10 Villanova 10 0.5836 56 1 11 3 10 5 0 6 0 0 1 0 0 3 5 0
11 Penn 11 0.5833 51 1 2 4 7 7 0 2 2 0 1 0 0 4 5 0
12 Syracuse 12 0.5817 11 3 10 3 7 6 0 2 2 0 0 1 0 5 3 0
13 Rutgers 13 0.5767 53 1 8 3 9 6 0 2 4 0 0 1 0 7 1 0
14 Bucknell 14 0.5741 15 2 4 3 11 4 0 6 2 0 0 0 0 5 2 0
15 Cornell 15 0.5712 17 2 17 2 10 4 0 3 3 0 1 0 0 6 1 0
16 Navy 16 0.5677 27 2 27 2 9 5 0 5 2 0 0 2 0 4 1 0
17 Ohio State 17 0.5645 29 2 7 3 8 7 0 4 2 0 0 2 0 4 3 0
18 Georgetown 18 0.5638 21 2 22 2 11 4 0 5 2 0 0 0 0 6 2 0
19 Vermont 19 0.5536 71 0 57 1 12 3 0 7 2 0 1 1 0 4 0 0
20 Penn State 20 0.5505 9 3 29 2 8 6 0 3 1 0 1 1 0 4 4 0
21 Robert Morris 21 0.5492 52 1 33 2 11 4 0 7 1 0 1 0 0 3 3 0

 

[biazza38]

I may puke if Nova gets in

 

[Knight Owl]

A Penn loss against Yale on Friday officially eliminates Penn. At-larges need to be .500 or better.

 

[Knight Owl]

Cornell has an almost identical resume to RU (each has "quality" wins against Syracuse and Penn St). Good news for Cornell is they're still playing....and their next game is vs. Brown.

 

[Knight Owl]

If they use only this to decide, then no RU.

Everyone is geared up for conference tournaments and the NCAA invites they hold.
Total = indicator of a teams chances to be invited to the tournament based on adding:

+ SOS * 1.00 strength of schedule (SOS)
+ QW * 1.00 quality wins(normalized to 1.0)
+ RPI * 1.00 Ratings percentage Index (RPI)
+ WRPI * 0.20 average RPI of all wins * win pct
+ LRPI * 0.20 average RPI of all losses * (1.-win pct)
+ SW * 0.01 significant win (opp. has a higher RPI)
- SL * 0.01 significant loss (opp. has a lower RPI)
+ WLP * 0.25 Win-Loss Percentage

DISCLAIMER: This prediction is an approximation subject to interpretation of NCAA
criteria and estimated weight factors. Furthermore, the NCAA committee has the
discretion to consider secondary and additional factors.

Rankings
No Team Total RPI SOS QW RPI SOS QW WRPI LRPI SW SL W L WLP

1 Maryland 2.6322 0.6655 0.6596 1.0000 1 3 1 .558 .601 0 2 12 2 0.8571
2 Albany 2.4780 0.6362 0.6515 0.8800 3 5 4 .512 .556 1 2 13 2 0.8667
3 Duke 2.4663 0.6334 0.6226 0.9100 4 14 2 .539 .600 1 2 12 3 0.8000
4 Yale 2.4369 0.6309 0.6360 0.8600 6 11 5 .521 .578 1 2 12 2 0.8571
5 Denver 2.4369 0.6134 0.6135 0.8900 8 20 3 .511 .635 0 0 12 2 0.8571
6 Loyola 2.3976 0.6311 0.6398 0.8400 5 8 6 .518 .598 0 2 12 3 0.8000
7 Johns Hopkins 2.3646 0.6228 0.6415 0.8300 7 6 7 .543 .598 0 2 10 4 0.7143
8 Virginia 2.3363 0.5865 0.6368 0.8300 9 10 8 .496 .622 1 1 12 5 0.7059
9 Notre Dame 2.3293 0.6364 0.6638 0.8000 2 2 9 .565 .594 0 4 8 5 0.6154
10 Georgetown 2.2110 0.5650 0.6212 0.7400 18 16 13 .485 .571 2 2 11 4 0.7333
11 Cornell 2.2106 0.5712 0.5968 0.7600 15 24 10 .499 .573 2 2 10 4 0.7143
12 Syracuse 2.2054 0.5816 0.6568 0.7200 12 4 16 .534 .593 3 3 7 6 0.5385
13 Villanova 2.2011 0.5825 0.6145 0.7400 11 18 14 .515 .584 2 3 10 5 0.6667
14 Bucknell 2.1790 0.5741 0.5891 0.7400 14 28 12 .500 .546 2 3 11 4 0.7333
15 Vermont 2.1525 0.5536 0.5531 0.7600 19 42 11 .455 .575 0 1 12 3 0.8000
16 Navy 2.1396 0.5678 0.5951 0.7100 16 25 17 .501 .583 2 2 9 5 0.6429
17 Michigan 2.1175 0.5434 0.6042 0.6900 25 22 20 .481 .607 3 0 8 6 0.5714
18 Rutgers 2.1170 0.5755 0.6321 0.6700 13 12 23 .517 .591 1 3 9 6 0.6000
19 Penn State 2.0849 0.5505 0.6144 0.6600 20 19 24 .502 .581 3 2 8 6 0.5714
20 Penn 2.0763 0.5833 0.6760 0.6200 10 1 28 .544 .577 1 5 7 7 0.5000

 

[BoroKnight]

Bucknell's NCAA hopes

yup, you’re wrong. 75% of RPI is SOS. 50% is opponent win % and 25% is opponents opponents win %. UMD gives us a boost in both. BTW Bucknell is a non-factor for the most part. They have no ability to improve their win % and their RPI can only tak a marginal uptick by Yale and Loyola getting one more win otherwise these opponents are already factored into their RPI since they have no more games to play. All the factors that would have to come together to benefit them would benefit us as well. They may end up getting but not over us.

Isn't that 150%? And doesn't your own winning percentage count for something?

 

[dconifer]

Isn't that 150%? And doesn't your own winning percentage count for something?

He's breaking the 75% down, explaining that 50% is from one thing and 25% is from another thing.

 

[biazza38]

If they use only this to decide, then no RU.

Everyone is geared up for conference tournaments and the NCAA invites they hold.
Total = indicator of a teams chances to be invited to the tournament based on adding:

+ SOS * 1.00 strength of schedule (SOS)
+ QW * 1.00 quality wins(normalized to 1.0)
+ RPI * 1.00 Ratings percentage Index (RPI)
+ WRPI * 0.20 average RPI of all wins * win pct
+ LRPI * 0.20 average RPI of all losses * (1.-win pct)
+ SW * 0.01 significant win (opp. has a higher RPI)
- SL * 0.01 significant loss (opp. has a lower RPI)
+ WLP * 0.25 Win-Loss Percentage

DISCLAIMER: This prediction is an approximation subject to interpretation of NCAA
criteria and estimated weight factors. Furthermore, the NCAA committee has the
discretion to consider secondary and additional factors.

Rankings
No Team Total RPI SOS QW RPI SOS QW WRPI LRPI SW SL W L WLP

1 Maryland 2.6322 0.6655 0.6596 1.0000 1 3 1 .558 .601 0 2 12 2 0.8571
2 Albany 2.4780 0.6362 0.6515 0.8800 3 5 4 .512 .556 1 2 13 2 0.8667
3 Duke 2.4663 0.6334 0.6226 0.9100 4 14 2 .539 .600 1 2 12 3 0.8000
4 Yale 2.4369 0.6309 0.6360 0.8600 6 11 5 .521 .578 1 2 12 2 0.8571
5 Denver 2.4369 0.6134 0.6135 0.8900 8 20 3 .511 .635 0 0 12 2 0.8571
6 Loyola 2.3976 0.6311 0.6398 0.8400 5 8 6 .518 .598 0 2 12 3 0.8000
7 Johns Hopkins 2.3646 0.6228 0.6415 0.8300 7 6 7 .543 .598 0 2 10 4 0.7143
8 Virginia 2.3363 0.5865 0.6368 0.8300 9 10 8 .496 .622 1 1 12 5 0.7059
9 Notre Dame 2.3293 0.6364 0.6638 0.8000 2 2 9 .565 .594 0 4 8 5 0.6154
10 Georgetown 2.2110 0.5650 0.6212 0.7400 18 16 13 .485 .571 2 2 11 4 0.7333
11 Cornell 2.2106 0.5712 0.5968 0.7600 15 24 10 .499 .573 2 2 10 4 0.7143
12 Syracuse 2.2054 0.5816 0.6568 0.7200 12 4 16 .534 .593 3 3 7 6 0.5385
13 Villanova 2.2011 0.5825 0.6145 0.7400 11 18 14 .515 .584 2 3 10 5 0.6667
14 Bucknell 2.1790 0.5741 0.5891 0.7400 14 28 12 .500 .546 2 3 11 4 0.7333
15 Vermont 2.1525 0.5536 0.5531 0.7600 19 42 11 .455 .575 0 1 12 3 0.8000
16 Navy 2.1396 0.5678 0.5951 0.7100 16 25 17 .501 .583 2 2 9 5 0.6429
17 Michigan 2.1175 0.5434 0.6042 0.6900 25 22 20 .481 .607 3 0 8 6 0.5714
18 Rutgers 2.1170 0.5755 0.6321 0.6700 13 12 23 .517 .591 1 3 9 6 0.6000
19 Penn State 2.0849 0.5505 0.6144 0.6600 20 19 24 .502 .581 3 2 8 6 0.5714
20 Penn 2.0763 0.5833 0.6760 0.6200 10 1 28 .544 .577 1 5 7 7 0.5000

I don’t know what rankings these are, but it has Umich ahead of us and that makes zero sense

 

[rbled]

He's breaking the 75% down, explaining that 50% is from one thing and 25% is from another thing.

Correct. Your own win percentage counts for 25% of the formula.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

Don’t lose to Princeton and/or Army and we’re not in this position right now. This year we truly “dug our own grave.” Those were bad losses, period, and I said they’d come back to haunt us. What a freakin’ shame because when at the top of our game we’re in easily.

 

[Caliknight]

Princeton is 8-5 with some nice wins. In a rivalry game played away, that isn't really a bad loss. How it happened was the bad part.

Army is a dangerous team, but still considered a bad loss. Crazy to think the hype the had preseason and now didn't even make their conference tourney.

I wouldn't be surprised to see them make a game of it tomorrow against ND.

 

[mdk01]

The unanswerable question I have is where would things stand if OSU's FOGO had not won 19 of 22 face offs last Saturday and 11 of 14 last night.

 

[Caliknight]

That's what makes the game a great equalizer. That role has become so key. Every year there is a chorus to go to something like hoops has after made field goals.

v1.0 of basketball had them doing jump balls after every made basket.

 

[mdk01]

That's what makes the game a great equalizer. That role has become so key. Every year there is a chorus to go to something like hoops has after made field goals.

v1.0 of basketball had them doing jump balls after every made basket.

They've been proposing that for over 40 years. I played in a tournament co-sponsored by UNC and Duke in 1975 where that was done on a trial basis. As a former FOGO before the term was invented I hope it's never changed. It's a skill, just like every other part of the game.

 

[CERU00]

They've been proposing that for over 40 years. I played in a tournament co-sponsored by UNC and Duke in 1975 where that was done on a trial basis. As a former FOGO before the term was invented I hope it's never changed. It's a skill, just like every other part of the game.

I dont get why we only have 2 guys who can do it. This is such a critical position with so much depending on individual matchups...seems like it would call for minimum 3-4 skilled guys who you can call on.

 

[mdk01]

I dont get why we only have 2 guys who can do it. This is such a critical position with so much depending on individual matchups...seems like it would call for minimum 3-4 skilled guys who you can call on.

Not sure about what the current philosophy is, but in the past it was rare that a team would have more than 2, maybe 3, players who took face offs. And lopsided results can happen for a number of reasons. One is when you face a clearly dominant FOGO like Trevor Baptiste of Denver. He makes everybody else look bad. Another is you can run up against a guy who happens to be in a zone that game. Further, sometimes the wing middies for a team make the difference between an essentially equal pair of FOGOs.

 

[Caliknight]

Yale 5-2 over Penn in Q2. This is good. Hope Penn gets destroyed.

 

[Caliknight]

10-4. Yale is dropping the hammer. Penn will be done with this loss.

 

[biazza38]

Here’s the question I have. If by some miracle everyone who needs to lose actually loses, how many spots will be fought for and by who?

 

[mdk01]

15-4 after 3. The fact they were in contention at 7-7 says there is a problem with the formula.

 

[rbled]

If everything goes as it should there are 5 teams pretty much locked in for at large bids (Duke, UVA, ND, Cornell & the B1G runner up) with 3 up for grabs. Cuse is the leader followed by RU, OSU, Georgetown, Villanova and Bucknell. If Cuse loses to Colgate tomorrow (doubtful) they are out of the picture. If Cornell loses to Brown (also unlikely) the get pushed to the bad side of the bubble. Either loss would all but guarantee us a spot. Assuming Cuse and Cornell are in it comes down to Bucknell, Nova, GT, OSU and us for the last two slots. I think Bucknell and Nova are on the outside looking in. GT can help themselves with a good showing vs. Denver and knock themselves out of the running with a blowout loss. I think it’s a toss up between us and OSU. They have a win over UMD and head-to-head but no other quality wins and worse losses than us.

Perfect scenario is Albany and Denver win their conferences in a blowout. Cornell and Cuse both lose. ND losing to Army would be nice but doesn’t have a direct impact.

 

[Caliknight]

Penn getting absolutely shellacked. It's making Uva's loss in the acc game look close.

 

[bigmatt718]

Yale showing no mercy vs Penn.

 

[rbled]

15-4 after 3. The fact they were in contention at 7-7 says there is a problem with the formula.

They were not seriously in contention though. The only reason they were in the conversation is that they had some good early wins (at one point they were top 5 I think) and if they managed to pull off the upset over Yale they would get some consideration but even then far from a lock.

 

[Rutgers83]

but they are sitting at 10 in RPI right now ahead of us. We were never blown out like that and in a long long time. RPI should be RIP.

 

[AreYouNUTS]

So where do things stand now? Do we still need Albany, Denver, and Yale to win out? Did I miss anything? Thanks.

 

[Caliknight]

Nope. Need those teams to win.