That may be YOUR definition of a bust, but meteorologically speaking it is but one of many /HTH
Yeah, was reading through the 33andrain thread and one of the mets said the 700 mbar low went through central PA, then just south of Binghamton and Albany and through MA, which is why many were postulating that the areas near and north of that got hammered so hard. Some also mentioned subsidence SE of that line being at least partly responsible for much of our area being either below or on the low end of snowfall forecasts (moreso than the sleet, which also didn't help).
Summary: So, at 0Z we're not really that far off from where we were last night at this time, despite having gone through some model ups and downs during the day, so I'll stick with what I've been saying for 2 days now. If you live along or NW of the 95 corridor from Philly to NYC (and especially from Trenton to NYC) prepare for a major (8" or more) snowstorm, with 12" or more possible especially just NW of 95 and anywhere NW of there, starting around 1-3 pm for most and ending around or just after sunrise Thursday. Along and SE of 95 and towards the coast will likely be the battleground for snow/sleet/rain at times, with snowfall amounts decreasing fairly steeply from NW to SE with the immediate coast maybe only getting a few inches (and a lot of rain). And, of course, most of the area well NW of 95/N of 78 is just about a lock to get 12-18" (or more in spots). Enjoy, but stay safe.
Some Details: Also by early Thursday, after about 9 pm, the winds will increase to 30-40 mph gusts inland and 40-55 mph gusts along the coast, so we'll likely have at least occasional blizzard conditions from then through early Thursday, especially where it's snowing hard (some areas will be getting 2" per hour snowfall rates around then although near 95 there could be sleet some of that time). Where there's heavy wet snow and these winds, we'll likely see some power outages. Finally, the prolonged NE fetch will lead to moderate coastal flooding for the bays and the Atlantic coast.
Let's take a look at the 0Z models (same 6 from last night + the HRRR mesoscale model, which is now more in range), mostly for completeness, since I've done this every night so far. No energy for commentary on all of them, but suffice it to say that some have more in spots than others and some have less, but they're far more similar than different and they all show a major (8" or more) of snow from Trenton to NYC and almost all show 8" or more from Philly to NYC. And they all have parts of the 95 corridor (generally from about NB to NYC) where snowfall is 12" or a bit more, but they also all show fairly sharp gradients from these amounts to just a few inches (if that) by the time one gets close to or reaches the NJ coast. On the flip side almost all of them show 12-18" well NW of 95 and certainly N of 78.
The two big wild cards remaining are how much sleet will we see, especially in the 95 corridor and just NW of there and how much total precip (these lead to the purple "holes" of less snow in the midst of the burgundy higher snowfall amounts on the maps), both of which are heavily influenced by the surface low track and the tracks or the upper level lows at 700 mbar and 850 mbar, as well as the strength of the cold air source in Quebec. Given that many of the sleet signatures I've seen from the column soundings are iffy, it's quite possible that dynamic cooling during heavy snowfall from above, combined with inability to warm the sub-15F flakes from above during a traverse of several hundred feet through 33F warm layer, will greatly reduce sleet, such that these areas will see more snow - we'll see. There are also factors that could lead to more sleet/rain.
Given that we're now just about 18 hours from the 7 pm EST data inputs to the 1 pm start time tomorrow, any major shifts in the models are unlikely, although it has happened once or twice before. As per earlier today, I think the adjusted downward NWS-Philly maps and the NWS-NYC maps are pretty good, as well as WxRisk's and several others. Getting close to nowcasting time and playing in the snow time.
https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1998-dec-16-18-possible-ec-snowstorm/page/279/
https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...nesday-noon-thursday-dec-16-17-2020/page/102/
Maybe chime in with something of substance in these threads once in awhile, since you certainly should be capable of it. Obviously Mt. Holly had some misses, but Upton did pretty well. What was your take on their forecasts?
WW did great and generally better than the NWS, no doubt about it, but the difference between them and the NWS wasn't that large. For most it was a 2" difference on the various swaths, e.g., WW had 6-10" where the NWS had 8-12" and they had 4-6" where the NWS had 6-8" and so on and for well N/W, they had 10-14" where the NWS had 12-18". Being off by a couple of inches is a bust, but not a major bust, IMO.
I'm sure you know the old very sexist/politically incorrect (but funny) joke about this one, don't you? If not, it goes something like this. How do you convert a dishwasher to a snowblower for only twenty bucks? Buy her a shovel. And that's the semi-clean version of the joke. I'm guessing I'll get some hate mail for that one, lol.
Maybe where you live. Here are in Monroe, we got 5 or 6 inches which was spot on what was forecasted.
All that matters is my location! 😜
Hmmm - not quite the case for central Jersey: NWS Mount Holly had us at 12” before and then dropped to 11” during the storm... and we got... ~5”. That’s a pretty big miss in my book!
What was actually forecast - was this a “reverse bust”?Over 40 inches of snow fell in Binghamton, NY and surrounding areas from this storm
Smart man: that would be used against you in all subsequent arguments until the end of time.
And here's the reported snowfall map from the NWS-Philly, showing how well WW did and how the NWS was over by a few inches along 95 and NW of there - a bust, but not a huge bust. And if mets ever start being a little smarter and factor in frozen mass (as that's what matters from a driving/snow removal perspective), the NWS would've been close to spot on, as most locations reported depths that were about 2" less than they would've been if the ~1" or so of sleet most got had been snow (1" of sleet is 3.3" of typical snow). It's also interesting that you (T2K) and bac reported significantly less snow than everyone around you. Hmmmm...WW did great and generally better than the NWS, no doubt about it, but the difference between them and the NWS wasn't that large. For most it was a 2" difference on the various swaths, e.g., WW had 6-10" where the NWS had 8-12" and they had 4-6" where the NWS had 6-8" and so on and for well N/W, they had 10-14" where the NWS had 12-18". Being off by a couple of inches is a bust, but not a major bust, IMO.
NWS =And here's the reported snowfall map from the NWS-Philly, showing how well WW did and how the NWS was over by a few inches along 95 and NW of there - a bust, but not a huge bust. And if mets ever start being a little smarter and factor in frozen mass (as that's what matters from a driving/snow removal perspective), the NWS would've been close to spot on, as most locations reported depths that were about 2" less than they would've been if the ~1" or so of sleet most got had been snow (1" of sleet is 3.3" of typical snow). It's also interesting that you (T2K) and bac reported significantly less snow than everyone around you. Hmmmm...
Well, I can't top that, lol - and if I tried, they'd shut the thread down...NWS =
A combination of when the report came in and probably poor measurement technique. The 3.9" report in Metuchen was from 7:20 pm, which was way before the storm was over - I mentioned this earlier and have no idea why the NWS leaves those reports in there after the storm is over. The 6.5" report was from 7:45 am, but we got about 1/2-3/4" of snow after that from one last band, so that one should've been 7.0-7.25".
Yup I unplugged mine. Got a 13' Santa bummer. The neighbors kids love it
