OT: Big winter storm next weekend (01/22-01/24)?

[FanuSanu52]

That's a good question. I know there have been some in recent years, but not sure how many compared to say a foot/foot and a half. It's more a matter of consistent snowfall.

The mountains are basically on the outskirts of the city and neighboring suburbs, though, and that's where you'll find ridiculous numbers - 7 feet/7 days is one series of storms I remember. Depends on storm, but I recall many times that the roads were clear, black asphalt by the following morning, which involves not only plowing but also avalanche work. And schools just didn't seem to get called.

The real answer probably lies comfortably between our explanations, a combination of less dense infrastructure and better preparation/expertise.

 

[RU4Real]

That's a good question. I know there have been some in recent years, but not sure how many compared to say a foot/foot and a half. It's more a matter of consistent snowfall.

The mountains are basically on the outskirts of the city and neighboring suburbs, though, and that's where you'll find ridiculous numbers - 7 feet/7 days is one series of storms I remember. Depends on storm, but I recall many times that the roads were clear, black asphalt by the following morning, which involves not only plowing but also avalanche work. And schools just didn't seem to get called.

The real answer probably lies comfortably between our explanations, a combination of less dense infrastructure and better preparation/expertise.

Snowfall rate is a huge factor. I've spent a fair amount of time in Buffalo and their "typical" lake effect snows are dealt with quite expertly. They brine the roads (probably a little too much for the environmentalist in either of us) which takes care of the 1-3" stuff with no plowing, but they plow when they need to.

Last year, though, when they got that 5-7 foot storm (over 3 days), it paralyzed the place. The airport was shut for a week - and the snow at the airport was only about 1/3 of the total south of the Thruway.

Like everything else, you plan for your average event, with a little extra contingency. But when you get an event that is well above average, there simply aren't the resources to deal with it.

All in all, I think things around here went pretty well. All the state and county roads here in western Monmouth were down to pavement by late morning yesterday and all the local roads were completely cleared by late afternoon. Middlesex county didn't seem to do quite as well, for some reason. Still, pretty much all of the school districts will be open tomorrow, 3 days after a top 5 historic snowfall. That seems okay.

 

[RU848789]

Denver and Salt lake get a fair amount of snow, but I'd be interested in knowing how often they get 24-30" in a 24 hour period. We have a pretty large data center services support group in Salt Lake and I can tell you for true that they got a 12" storm last month and none of them went into the office for 2 days - everybody worked from home.

And yeah, nobody was rooting for flooding. Hell, our very own Governor has twice (so far) denied that it even happened. One more time and he'll be eligible for the role of Honorary Apostle.

Denver gets big storms on a relatively similar frequency as NYC, with a few storms bigger than anything we've had, ever (top 3 are 45, 32 and 30"), whereas SLC has less big storms than NYC, with the max being 23". Both get a lot more snow per season (56" in SLC and 57" in Denver vs. 28" in NYC). What I don't know, though, is the moisture content in these big storms (the snowfall data are easy to find; the LE data, not so much - would likely have to post that on AmericanWx), which I suspect is significantly less out west, as it is in the mountains around there.

So a 24" snowfall with a 10:1 snow:liquid ratio in NYC (most storms) would have twice as much mass as a 24" snowfall in Denver or SLC with a 20:1 snow to liquid ratio. And for snow removal, power outages, etc., snow mass is far more important than snow depth, i.e., the impacts are likely greater in NYC for the same snow depth.

 

[RU4Real]

Denver gets big storms on a relatively similar frequency as NYC, with a few storms bigger than anything we've had, ever (top 3 are 45, 32 and 30"), whereas SLC has less big storms than NYC, with the max being 23". Both get a lot more snow per season (56" in SLC and 57" in Denver vs. 28" in NYC). What I don't know, though, is the moisture content in these big storms (the snowfall data are easy to find; the LE data, not so much - would likely have to post that on AmericanWx), which I suspect is significantly less out west, as it is in the mountains around there.

So a 24" snowfall with a 10:1 snow:liquid ratio in NYC (most storms) would have twice as much mass as a 24" snowfall in Denver or SLC with a 20:1 snow to liquid ratio. And for snow removal, power outages, etc., snow mass is far more important than snow depth, i.e., the impacts are likely greater in NYC for the same snow depth.

Without actually seeing any numbers, I would think that their LEs would have to be lower and their ratios higher. Both cities are in "shadow" - Denver to the lee of the Rockies, of course, and Salt Lake City in the lee of the various mountains of the Basin and Range province. That, plus their elevation, would seem to suggest the atmosphere supporting less peak moisture.

 

[FanuSanu52]

My anecdotal experience supports that: the snow is frequently a lighter powder, in the valleys, as well as mountains, more so than the damp snowball snow common in the east.

 

[retired711]

None of today's 12Z models showed a hit for this area. A few were moderately near misses, but most were huge misses, so since we're only 4 days out, I'd consider this threat 99% dead. If we don't see any movement northward by tomorrow, it's done.

• FWIW, the National Weather Service is forecasting snow for Thursday for my zip code, but I assume that's just nuisance flurries. And at least down here, the forecast is also for temperatures above freezing.
• BTW, the Weather Service has put out a special weather statement warning of black ice this evening, and urging people to be extra careful. I have to teach an evening class and then drive home; I'll try my best to be vigilant, especially when I get into the side roads of my neighborhood.

 

[Knight Shift]

Does @ bac2therac approve?

 

[RU848789]

• FWIW, the National Weather Service is forecasting snow for Thursday for my zip code, but I assume that's just nuisance flurries. And at least down here, the forecast is also for temperatures above freezing.
• BTW, the Weather Service has put out a special weather statement warning of black ice this evening, and urging people to be extra careful. I have to teach an evening class and then drive home; I'll try my best to be vigilant, especially when I get into the side roads of my neighborhood.

They're predicting a "slight chance of snow," which means a 10-20% chance of more than a trace of snow, i.e., not much snow at all. In the discussion, they basically say they left the slight chance in there, waiting for one more model cycle to be dry, so they can dismiss the threat. Stranger things have happened, but like I said, this one is just about dead (but not 100% dead).

Black ice is going to be a problem for days, with daytime melting and nighttime refreezing. Which means I'll be putting salt out on my driveway and sidewalk every late afternoon and being careful walking and driving, especially early in the morning. People should be happy that this looks like a nice, slow and steady melt without any major snow/rain storms coming to cause flooding.

 

[RUsSKii]

Does @ bac2therac approve?

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Absolutely brilliant, and shared many times in the past couple of days. Very tempted to try this if I ever decide to stay in the city during a heavier snowstorm with my ski gear.

 

[RUhasarrived]

John Edwards was right about there being Two Americas.In this case,there is one America with parking and one America without parking.

Personally,I can leave my car underneath the raised portion of 280 for an indefinite period of time,but I can see my neighbors have a rough go of it.Part of the bailout money in 2008 should have gone for more snow removal equipment and the money to hire temporary workers for extreme emergencies(especially since my high school classmate-Ellen Tauscher- was chairing the House when the bill was passed).

 

[bac2therac]

Does @ bac2therac approve?

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No but they'll get theirs eventually

 

[BigLou]

The reason that it's a "disaster" is because NJ is ill prepared for it, despite all the "the snowy Northeast" rhetoric. So if you're that worried about it, stop being all butthurt at regular ol folks that like snow and start contacting your politicians and opening your wallet.

Places that really get snow deal with this type of storm all the time and they do it quite efficiently. Roads would have been clear and black within a few hours of snow stopping, definitely by Sunday morning. Virtually no such thing as snow days, either. NJ compares to those places the way the Carolinas compare to NJ.

I do not agree that, as a whole, NJ was ill prepared for this storm. The storm dropped twice the amount that was forecast and was historic in nature. Snow ended late Saturday night by me and by Sunday mid day roads were clear, highways were all black top - at least for the areas I saw (I drove from New Providence to Parsippany at that time). Urban areas are more difficult due to narrow streets and parked cars but NYC is having the same problem in the outer boroughs.

Where we have problems is when there is storm after storm and towns run out of budget money and salt, like happened a couple of years ago. However, on the eat coast, as far as snow removal: Buffalo>NJ>Washington DC, as expected.

 

[RocktheRac]

Those fools should have been arrested. How dangerous was it with those cars and that sanitation plow. No doubt they got hit or hurt they would have sued the City of NY for negligence.

 

[RU848789]

I do not agree that, as a whole, NJ was ill prepared for this storm. The storm dropped twice the amount that was forecast and was historic in nature. Snow ended late Saturday night by me and by Sunday mid day roads were clear, highways were all black top - at least for the areas I saw (I drove from New Providence to Parsippany at that time). Urban areas are more difficult due to narrow streets and parked cars but NYC is having the same problem in the outer boroughs.

Where we have problems is when there is storm after storm and towns run out of budget money and salt, like happened a couple of years ago. However, on the eat coast, as far as snow removal: Buffalo>NJ>Washington DC, as expected.

Agreed. I drove all over Edison, NB, HP, Woodbridge, Rahway, P'way, etc. between Sunday afternoon and Monday afternoon (errands and work) and was very impressed with the snow removal on all major roads, state highways, county roads, etc. Even most local roads were fine, except in the narrow roads with closely packed parked cars on them that are very hard to plow, like in parts of NB and Rahway (and any city).

I was impacted zero by this storm other than shoveling 5 metric tons of snow and staying in for most of Saturday (even then I was able to drive into downtown Metuchen for milk and a beer at the pub). I know others who had to be out were impacted more and there were some impacts for the relatively small number of people who lost power for a day or so or who experienced some coastal flooding (but nothing like Sandy north of AC), but the vast majority of people were largely unaffected, unless they had a heart condition (and people who have heart attacks shoveling likely would have a heart attack sometime later anyway).

Having said that, we were fortunate that the snow was not wet and heavy, as that would've led to widespread power outages, roof collapses, etc. (it's why the impacts of the 93 Superstorm were actually greater - same amount of frozen liquid fell, but in 93 it was wet snow and sleet, which led to far more power outages/trees down).

 

[bac2therac]

Lmao..unaffected? Try stepping outvof your snow globe for a change

 

[RU848789]

Lmao..unaffected? Try stepping outvof your snow globe for a change

I knew you'd jump on this in some way. Try reading. Big difference between "largely unaffected" and "unaffected." Sure, everybody was "affected" by the storm in fairly small ways: being shut in on Saturday, spending hours removing snow, and being somewhat shut in on Sunday (I wasn't, but many were), and then having schools closed in most places on Monday, and having a slow commute on Monday and maybe Tuesday, at least on local roads (highways were all fine). To me that's "largely unaffected" - perhaps I should've said affected in fairly minor ways instead. Whatever.

My point was I think only a small minority of people suffered major impacts by things like losing power, flooding, roof collapse, injury from snow-related causes, and major business impacts. My other point was that previous storms with far less snowfall (93 Superstorm only dropped 12" or so on NYC Metro and CNJ, due to the change to sleet) actually had more impacts, due to there being wet snow bringing down trees and power lines - just think about what ~6" of heavy wet snow did to trees/power the day of the WVU football game several years ago.

 

[Kbee3]

And they're reporting the death toll as over 30 now.
One older woman died in her car parked at a Burger King in Hackensack. She had become too scared to drive home in the storm.

Ah....such a small percentage of the people.

 

[FanuSanu52]

I do not agree that, as a whole, NJ was ill prepared for this storm. The storm dropped twice the amount that was forecast and was historic in nature. Snow ended late Saturday night by me and by Sunday mid day roads were clear, highways were all black top - at least for the areas I saw (I drove from New Providence to Parsippany at that time). Urban areas are more difficult due to narrow streets and parked cars but NYC is having the same problem in the outer boroughs.

Where we have problems is when there is storm after storm and towns run out of budget money and salt, like happened a couple of years ago. However, on the eat coast, as far as snow removal: Buffalo>NJ>Washington DC, as expected.

Yeah, in re-reading what I wrote, it seems I jumped to conclusions and generalizations based on some of the earlier complaining in the thread.

My point was not supposed to be about NJ being behind the ball on this storm, though that's clearly how it reads. The point I wanted to make was that if this storm was that much of a disaster, as some people were suggesting, folks should be looking at what they can do better instead of illogically getting angry at people who have absolutely no control over anything and happen to enjoy snowfall.

Invest the type of resources and implement some of the strategies that somewhere like Buffalo does and you can mitigate the consequences on the ground. Not even saying that makes sense for NJ, which doesn't get half the snow that some of these places do, just saying it's more productive than looking for some kind of boogie man to blame. Like anything: invest more time and money, be better prepared.

 

[bac2therac]

$3 billion in damage from Jonas

they found a 64 year old woman in Mahwah buried in the snow because she had a heart attack and the snowpiled up on her

the comment you made about people were going to have a heart attack anyhow is incredibly flippant

 

[FanuSanu52]

No but they'll get theirs eventually

I tried that in New Brunswick back in college, only with a snow skate instead of skis and a vacuum cleaner wire because I couldn't find rope. The police were there within about 2 minutes and were not amused. A little while later, someone else was doing the same thing a block over.

I miss college snow days.

 

[Kbee3]

$3 billion in damage from Jonas

they found a 64 year old woman in Mahwah buried in the snow because she had a heart attack and the snowpiled up on her

the comment you made about people were going to have a heart attack anyhow is incredibly flippant

I agree.....not cool at all.

 

[RU848789]

$3 billion in damage from Jonas

they found a 64 year old woman in Mahwah buried in the snow because she had a heart attack and the snowpiled up on her

the comment you made about people were going to have a heart attack anyhow is incredibly flippant

Of course the older woman's death is tragic - anyone's death is tragic. However, noting that older, out of shape people are the ones who generally have heart attacks while shoveling and that these people would've likely had heart attacks during some other future physical activity is not flippant, it's simply true. I know flippant - I'm flippant quite often - I was not flippant in that case.

 

[bac2therac]

really...I don't think so...people with heart conditions can live for years..you are being ridiculous actually not flippant

 

[m1ipabrams]

what I am saying is that a 1-2 foot snowstorm has a greater impact on people than a 3 day heatwave...those people who die in the heat are dying from their underlying conditions being exacerbated or they don't have air conditioning. More people live without air conditioning but heat is a requirement in apartments...big difference there Snowstorms effect everyone, they don't kill a lot because everybody is inside. The economic impact is far greater if you are taking a 3 day period of each.

it could be 95 degrees and you and I and everyone else can go to work and go on with their lives..cant do that today can you or tomorrow..thats my point

really...I don't think so...people with heart conditions can live for years..you are being ridiculous actually not flippant

 

[bac2therac]

Where did I say they were going to die anyway..not really the same

those people who die in the heat are dying from their underlying conditions being exacerbated or they don't have air conditioning

if you want to compare a 3 day heatwave of 100 degree and its impacts to a 3 day snowstorm of 24 inches and its impacts be my guest but we all have common sense and know which is worse

 

[e5fdny]

Snowfall rate is a huge factor. I've spent a fair amount of time in Buffalo and their "typical" lake effect snows are dealt with quite expertly. They brine the roads (probably a little too much for the environmentalist in either of us) which takes care of the 1-3" stuff with no plowing, but they plow when they need to.

Last year, though, when they got that 5-7 foot storm (over 3 days), it paralyzed the place. The airport was shut for a week - and the snow at the airport was only about 1/3 of the total south of the Thruway.

Like everything else, you plan for your average event, with a little extra contingency. But when you get an event that is well above average, there simply aren't the resources to deal with it.

And who did the City of Buffalo call for help when they realized this to be true...

(hint: the same agency New Orleans called after Katrina)

http://www.nyc.gov/html/fdny/html/events/2014/112414a.shtml

 

[m1ipabrams]

Where did I say they were going to die anyway..not really the same

those people who die in the heat are dying from their underlying conditions being exacerbated or they don't have air conditioning

if you want to compare a 3 day heatwave of 100 degree and its impacts to a 3 day snowstorm of 24 inches and its impacts be my guest but we all have common sense and know which is worse

But the original argument wasn't about impacts, it was about mortality rates. I agree with you that a big snowstorm like Jonas has a huge overall impact, many times larger than 3 days of high heat. But the original implication was "how could anyone want snow, you must want people to die". Beyond the ridiculousness of the accusation, the reality is that excessive heat has a significantly higher mortality rate than cold/snow.

And regardless of any of that whether anyone wishes for snow or not, its going to happen or its not going to happen.

And all of this argument is happening between folks that are sports fans, how many people are seriously injured/killed in sports like football, boxing, or car racing. Don't tell me people don't watch football to see the big/hard hits, or the knockouts in boxing or the nascar crashes.....

 

[Kbee3]

if you want to compare a 3 day heatwave of 100 degree and its impacts to a 3 day snowstorm of 24 inches and its impacts be my guest but we all have common sense and know which is worse

Who cares which is worse ?
Someone cheerleading for a heat wave of 100 degrees is just as dumb as someone cheerleading for a massive snowstorm. The only difference is NO ONE IS CHEERLEADING FOR A HEAT WAVE.
I must have missed it. When exactly did anyone here post anything like "Woo Hoo ! Bring on the Heat. I can't wait for those 100 degree days...and keep 'em coming" ?
The answer is NO ONE DID. Just another weakass attempt to justify cheerleading for a tragedy like we just had. Very disappointing.

 

[Tango Two]

$3 billion in damage from Jonas

they found a 64 year old woman in Mahwah buried in the snow because she had a heart attack and the snowpiled up on her

the comment you made about people were going to have a heart attack anyhow is incredibly flippant

Jonas?

 

[FanuSanu52]

Who cares which is worse ?
Someone cheerleading for a heat wave of 100 degrees is just as dumb as someone cheerleading for a massive snowstorm. The only difference is NO ONE IS CHEERLEADING FOR A HEAT WAVE.
I must have missed it. When exactly did anyone here post anything like "Woo Hoo ! Bring on the Heat. I can't wait for those 100 degree days...and keep 'em coming" ?
The answer is NO ONE DID. Just another weakass attempt to justify cheerleading for a tragedy like we just had. Very disappointing.

Cheerleading a tragedy? Are you out of your mind?

Do yourself a solid and don't come back to this thread - every time you do, you somehow manage to leap right over the high bar of ridiculously stupid you set up the last time.

 

[Kbee3]

Cheerleading a tragedy? Are you out of your mind?

Do yourself a solid and don't come back to this thread - every time you do, you somehow manage to leap right over the high bar of ridiculously stupid you set up the last time.

I struggle to put into words how important your opinion is to me.[poop][poop][poop][poop]
I'm just happy they put the pom poms back in the closet until the next snow storm.

 

[RocktheRac]

Another storm casualty. One of my hermit crabs went belly up from the cold. Wait......maybe he had a bad heart and he was gone die anyway.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Where did I say they were going to die anyway..not really the same

 

[DJ Spanky]

And I really don't understand people's problems with Heatwave.

 

[RUHotTrumpetMonkeyLove]

One more snow death?

 

[bac2therac]

on a more positive note, the snowmelt the past two days has been simply divine....temps have overperformed and grassy areas are down less than half of what he got during the storm. Mild temps ahead for the weekend and above normal for at least the first part of this week, we will start seeing grass soon

 

[FanuSanu52]

on a more positive note, the snowmelt the past two days has been simply divine....temps have overperformed and grassy areas are down less than half of what he got during the storm. Mild temps ahead for the weekend and above normal for at least the first part of this week, we will start seeing grass soon

You know what would help the snowmelt even more? A heatwave.

You know what won't? Being faux-outraged that people like snow.

 

[DJ Spanky]

You know what would help the snowmelt even more? A heatwave.

You cold-blooded, heartless bastage! Don't you know people could DIE from that?

 

[bac2therac]

lol keeping thing that many people snow..seems to be those with the least reponsibiities that orgasm over it

 

[FanuSanu52]

I don't know what that was supposed to say, but I know it doesn't say it.