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OT: Big winter storm next weekend (01/22-01/24)?

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My biggest fear, as I love to shovel, but I'm only in decent shape, not top shape - and sometimes it doesn't matter, if you have serious heart problems. That's why I do take breaks. I certainly don't want to go yet, but if I make it to 85 or 90 and I'm still shoveling and I go while shoveling out in a gorgeous snowfall, that probably wouldn't be the worst way to go, for me...

DARE TO DREAM!!!
 
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@Knight Shift, you on the job? Dunes just breached at MB and in the 4-3, river level is at 6.4' and the tide is coming in.
No. There's a solid crew (a lot of them in that picture with Amy Freeze) that do the standbys. Was the wife's birthday yesterday, and too much to do today with clearing snow and catching up on work I missed yesterday because I had to do followups at Sloan Kettering, which turned out to be all good. The followups are always a little nerve wracking, but necessary to ensure no recurrence.
 
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3 deaths in NY due to shoveling

toplessguy.jpg
 
if I make it to 85 or 90 and I'm still shoveling and I go while shoveling out in a gorgeous snowfall, that probably wouldn't be the worst way to go, for me...

That's how my uncle went. He was 82 & tough as nails. Did everything himself and in perfect health. Went out to shovel his driveway one Saturday & never came back.
 
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We had 18" here in Wayne around 3-4 o'clock.

Measurement2_zps4xrkgaff.jpg


It was drifted over 3 feet between the cars.
 
The NAM had it.

Yeah, it's made some major mistakes in the past and busted bad, but it had this one. And it's a commentary on the whole science that you had all these mets (allegedly) on the AMWx board saying "there's no way the NAM can be right, there's no support for it, the dynamics are wrong, there's no way."

Way.

Fluid dynamics is a tough thing.
Well said and a bit humbling, even for many pros. The thing I always say, though, knowing how incredibly complex the actual atmosphere is vs. our ability to model it with ridiculously sparse data inputs vs. the globe of data that could in theory be input, is not, "why do these guys get the forecasts wrong so often," but "how the hell can these guys get any of these forecasts even remotely correct?"
 
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just wanted to say that I thought Cherry Hill got off pretty easily. At least during daylight hours, there was nothing approaching blizzard conditions. There is a fair amount of snow on the ground, but it doesn't look much worse than any other bad storm. OTOH, my fiance in Flemington reports that there is a chest-high drift at her back door. South Jersey was supposed to get hit worse than the rest of New Jersey, but I don't think it happened. Anyone with further knowledge? Btw, I hope we can continue to get info on the possibility bac mentioned of a new storm on Friday, the 29th.
 
just wanted to say that I thought Cherry Hill got off pretty easily. At least during daylight hours, there was nothing approaching blizzard conditions. There is a fair amount of snow on the ground, but it doesn't look much worse than any other bad storm. OTOH, my fiance in Flemington reports that there is a chest-high drift at her back door. South Jersey was supposed to get hit worse than the rest of New Jersey, but I don't think it happened. Anyone with further knowledge? Btw, I hope we can continue to get info on the possibility bac mentioned of a new storm on Friday, the 29th.
Really? Philly Airport has 20.8", as of 7 pm and should get to 22", which would put it in 4th place all time (31" for Jan 96 is their record) and that's only 7-8 miles from Cherry Hill, so presumably you got similar amounts (at least 18" no?). Winds were not quite blizzard strength for 90% of NJ and I always wondered why they extended the blizzard warnings inland from the coastal counties - even here in Metuchen, which is only 5 miles from Raritan Bay and 20 miles from the open ocean, we only hit blizzard conditions sporadically with sustained winds in the 20-30 mph range and some gusts over the 35 mph threshold for a blizzard. Almost everyone also got lucky the temps stayed pretty low, meaning we had relatively dry snow, which did not stick to trees/power lines,so that power outages have been minimal, except very close to the coast where temps were warmer.

South Jersey/Philly essentially got what was forecast, as did DC/Balt/VA/MD for the most part, while NJ north of Philly and NYC/LI way overperformed, mostly due to the low coming much further north than most of the models (except the NAM) before heading ENE out to sea. That and the very strong frontogenetic banding features were stronger than anyone thought possible even yesterday and these bands are what really put this area over the hump with snowfall.

Lastly, I woudn't worry yet about the Friday system, as it's most likely heading out to sea and even if it doesn't we have plenty of time to track that one.
 
People out in cars that have no business being out. Friend and I had to dig out an older gent stuck at an intersection. Snow as high as his bumper and he's trying to get through it in a FWD crossover. C'mon.
 
Shocked at how well it's still snowing down here Jackson/Freehold border. Have to be at ~24 inches right now
 
I believe we've passed 30" here in Rockaway Township (Morris County). I'm in the southern part of the town, south of Route 80.

Even up until last night, the storm was tracking south of here and we were projected much lower - - 8"-12" at most, though some models were predicting even less during the day.

What an unpleasant surprise!
 
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Oh hell, Lou, you're right around the corner! Mine's the one with the deck you can see above the stockade fence.

My wife and often take walks through MHF and walk past your street as we head towards Baldwin and back to Union Ave. Im a couple houses in from Union and you might see some indication that someone in the house (my son) goes to that school in Pa.
Hell of a lot of snow around here.
 
Really? Philly Airport has 20.8", as of 7 pm and should get to 22", which would put it in 4th place all time (31" for Jan 96 is their record) and that's only 7-8 miles from Cherry Hill, so presumably you got similar amounts (at least 18" no?). Winds were not quite blizzard strength for 90% of NJ and I always wondered why they extended the blizzard warnings inland from the coastal counties - even here in Metuchen, which is only 5 miles from Raritan Bay and 20 miles from the open ocean, we only hit blizzard conditions sporadically with sustained winds in the 20-30 mph range and some gusts over the 35 mph threshold for a blizzard. Almost everyone also got lucky the temps stayed pretty low, meaning we had relatively dry snow, which did not stick to trees/power lines,so that power outages have been minimal, except very close to the coast where temps were warmer.

South Jersey/Philly essentially got what was forecast, as did DC/Balt/VA/MD for the most part, while NJ north of Philly and NYC/LI way overperformed, mostly due to the low coming much further north than most of the models (except the NAM) before heading ENE out to sea. That and the very strong frontogenetic banding features were stronger than anyone thought possible even yesterday and these bands are what really put this area over the hump with snowfall.

Lastly, I woudn't worry yet about the Friday system, as it's most likely heading out to sea and even if it doesn't we have plenty of time to track that one.

interesting . . . perhaps when I actually step outside into the snow, I'll realize how much fell! I use a snow removal service so I wasn't outside the way brave guys like you were. (That snow removal service promised to come by every four inches, and I haven't seen a trace of them -- but for that matter I haven't even seen a township plow.) And I guess I thought we'd have blizzard conditions, which I gather were really only near the shore. I hope people at the shore are OK; those pictures we saw of Ocean City made it look like there were real problems there.
 
The winds have slowed and the snow is hopefully on its last legs.
Good night, and thanks again RU#'s and others for the heads up
about what was possible today. Hope there is minimal flooding
everywhere the next few days.
 
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I can't believe how hard it is still snowing in Tinton Falls. I went out and measured 20" at about 4:30 on my patio table.
 
I believe we've passed 30" here in Rockaway Township (Morris County). I'm in the southern part of the town, south of Route 80.

Even up until last night, the storm was tracking south of here and we were projected much lower - - 8"-12" at most, though some models were predicting even less during the day.

What an unpleasant surprise!
Crazy, here in Denville I still can't believe how much we got. Quite possibly the epicenter of it all.
 
Crazy here in North Edison too.

In our townhouse complex we have not seen a soul all day. Not a car, not a person. Since 7am

Dug out the mother in law at 11am but this is like the zombie apocalypse since then
 
Central Park just reported 25.1" and with another 3-4" likely, is poised to break its all-time record. Simply amazing for a storm that looked like an 8-12" event 2 days ago.

Holy crap, Central Park just reported 26.8" vs. the 26.9" record. Still possible they scrap up another 0.2" in light snow/snow showers in the next few hours, looking at the radar.
 
Got very frustrated with the huge variance in measurements on my property, which usually is pretty good during snowstorms, but not this one - too much wind and the snow is too dry. So, did another shovel (#5, lol) and my son and I took a short ride to the local school, which has a huge open field for sports. Walked out about 50 yards into it and took some measurements and they were very consistent, between 18 and 19", so I called it 18.5" as of 5:00 pm.

Had a good snowball fight and wrestling match (kid's stronger than me now, so had to be careful lol). Rode around town a bit and the main roads are passable, but often only have one main lane. Hailey's is open so I may have to take a walk downtown later for a beer.

Snow really picked up here since about 4 pm, as the mega band finally hit us for awhile, but we're 4-7" behind folks in NYC, Union, Essex, Morris, Somerset, etc., as reports of 22-25" in those locations are common, as they were under that band for far longer. With maybe 4-5 more hours of 1" per hour snow, should at least hit 22" here and I could see many places in NNJ/CNJ hitting 25-30" and maybe a little more.

Central Park is at 19.3" at 4 pm, so they should easily make it into 3rd place, all-time (22") and first place is possible (26.9" in Feb 2006). That would be amazing given that everyone was wondering if NYC would make it to 8" 2 days ago. 21.4" in Newark, 21" in Elizabeth and 20" in LGA and reports of 30" in Morris County. NAM crushed it.

Did one last shovel (#6) - toughest one as the plows had just come by and tossed all the heavy wet stuff into the mouth of my driveway. Anyway, after that I took a quick spin to the middle school since I knew that was the only place I could get a good measurement. Final tally for Metuchen was 22", which is the 3rd most I've seen in my 24 years in Metuchen (28" for Jan-96 and 23" for Dec-2010). Helluva storm
 
I got a 5' (no exaggeration)snow drift on the wet side of my deck. That sum bitch will be there in the Spring cause I ain't touching it. Must have formed when the winds were west to east earlier in the day. Last night, the winds were from the east/NE. Some other areas only about 6". I'd say 20" avg if i had to guess.
 
pet peeve is weenies gleefully rooting for as much as snow as possible ignoring all the consequences that result
Well there are many benefits to snow storms as well that many could be pleased with. The good the bad and the ugly are with us everyday, I guess your ghoulish rant is no better than their glee.
 
Numbez needs a refresher course in measuring. ..heard on wctc that Metuchen reported 27 inches...most in the area...Bridgewater only 24...I think about 4 inches less in Belle Mead
 
I feel much better now.

The landlord came with his snowblower,ensuring that the mailman will have no excuses and that the garbage can be accessed,my car is safely out of the way under the elevated portion of 280,I've got enough food for a couple of months,possibly lasting until the Spring Game(except for milk).

I'm figuring that it will take at least 10 days for the town to plow the streets curb to curb,allowing for street parking and for me to move the car from its safe place.

So,all in all it's OK.Hopefully,the Democrats will nominate Al Gore who will guarantee that it will never again snow.
 
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