Slightly surprised the NWS in Philly extended the advisories a tier of counties southward, so they're now up for Middlesex, Mercer, lower Bucks and lower Montco for an inch or so of snow in the evening and a trace of freezing rain (the freezing rain is the reason for the advisory, as one needs 3" of snow in our area for an advisory to verify) before the changeover to plain rain after midnight. They're calling for 2-5" north of 78 (with the higher amounts really north of 80 - don't think anyone near 78 sees more than 2") before the changeover, where the Monday morning commute will likely be affected.
Think they could be a little bullish there, too - but they often are with the first widespread wintry precip. The NWS in NYC has no advisories up, except for Western Passaic, Orange and Putnam counties, i.e., not for the counties, like Union, Essex, and Bergen, next to Morris, Somerset, and Middlesex, which have advisories up. Someone's going to be wrong and my guess is it'll be the NWS in Philly.
http://www.weather.gov/phi/
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
A break in the snow is possible early this evening as the lead short
wave passes eastward, but this break in precipitation will only be
temporary. A warm
front will lift northward across the area tonight
as an area of low pressure moves into the Great Lakes region. A
couple of short wave/
vorticity impulses will spread across the area
during the overnight, which will help enhance lift across the area
as low-mid level
moisture spread through the region. This will lead
to an extended period of precipitation. The question becomes what the
P-types will be. As the precipitation first develops and spreads
across the area, it should start out as snow. However, as
temperatures begin to warm, especially aloft, we should begin having
a change over to a wintry mix. We extended the Winter Weather
Advisory a tier of counties southward, and have kept the advisory
the same for the counties that were already in it. Highest snow
amounts are expected to be across the northern areas from I-78/I-80
northward where 3-5 inches is possible. South of this area in the
advisory, a dusting to 1-2 inches is possible. With the freezing
rain, a
trace to less than one-tenth of an inch of ice is expected
before a change over to all rain.
