OT: Low activity tropical season likely, but we might get a minor tropical storm this week off SC

[RU848789]

Dr. Gray's April 9th forecast is for a quiet tropical season with 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane, vs. normals of 12/6.5/2 over the last 30 years, largely due to the expected moderate El Nino, combined with cooler than normal Atlantic Basis sea surface temps. Gray was spot on last year and has the best record of seasonal forecasts out there (but still nowhere near perfect - using analogs and indices to predict months ahead is only somewhat better than guessing).

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2015/apr2015/apr2015.pdf

Oddly enough, we're also looking at one of the earlier possible tropical (or maybe subtropical) systems forming in a long time, as an area of disturbed weather from the Bahamas to the FL/GA/SC coast is predicted to probably develop a circulation and has a 60% chance of becoming our first named storm of the year, although even if it does, it's unlikely to be more than a weak tropical storm. It's track is also very unclear, given the very weak steering currents in that area. It's main impact is likely to be heavy rains and some heavy surf this weekend in the SE US - it's not expected to affect our area, as of now.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2975#commenttop

 

[WhiteBus]

That's a complete non story compared to what is going on in Oklahoma and North Texas

 

[RU4Real]

Which means...

IT'S THAT TIME AGAIN!

Time to start thinking about your entries for the Annual ScarletNation "Beat Dr. Grey" Atlantic Storm Contest!

 

[RU848789]

Almost...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

 

[RU4Real]

Weird little system...

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

Gray says 4 9 15.. Ading 50%... 6 14 22

 

[RU848789]

Gray says 4 9 15.. Ading 50%... 6 14 22

Gray says 7/3/1 (named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes), for a very light season, not 4/9/15 - 4/9/15 was the date the forecast was issued (I changed it to Apr 9th), lol.

 

[RU848789]

This odd little system was named a tropical storm this morning. Has max 60 mph winds over the ocean, but weaker winds anywhere near the coast, and it should weaken before landfall early Sunday near the NC/SC border. A few inches of rain, some moderate to heavy surf and some wind - no big deal, really. Should skirt out to the NE, well to our SE, early next week.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2981

 

[miket007]

I'm pissed that this isn't going to effect us up here because we really need the rain.

 

[RUJMM78]

Weathermen keep predicting rain in NJ but we don't seem to get a real soaking .Maybe Tuesday or Wednesday.

 

[T2Kplus10]

We need rain. Hopefully this weak storm makes it up here.

 

[derleider]

All it seems to be doing here in MD is pumping moist air in. Swampy out the past couple of days, but not much rain.

I didnt notice how dry it had been, then I went out and looked at my garden and quite a few of the perennials, which we dont water usually, are already wilting.

 

[LadyRU09]

A small thunderstorm just came through East Brunswick. It's sunny now, but the plants got some watering.

 

[RU848789]

Dr. Gray's April 9th forecast is for a quiet tropical season with 7 named storms, 3 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane, vs. normals of 12/6.5/2 over the last 30 years, largely due to the expected moderate El Nino, combined with cooler than normal Atlantic Basis sea surface temps. Gray was spot on last year and has the best record of seasonal forecasts out there (but still nowhere near perfect - using analogs and indices to predict months ahead is only somewhat better than guessing).

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2015/apr2015/apr2015.pdf

Dr. Gray and folks at CSU have issued their June forecast, which is unchanged, except for adding in one TS, due to the unexpected formation of Anna in May. New forecast is for 8 named storms, 3 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane, vs. normals of 12/6.5/2 over the last 30 years.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/2015/june2015/jun2015.pdf

And for anyone who missed it, we just had a weak tropical storm Bill form in the GOM the other day and it's now a weakening depression in central Texas. But it counts, so we're at 2 TS's so far. The remnants could lead to some heavy storms this weekend around these parts.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

[BigLou]

What is the track that the remnants of Bill is heading for/ I'm driving out to Pittsburgh on Saturday to see the Rolling Stone that night. Will I be sitting in a in a crossfire hurricane?

 

[RU4Real]

What is the track that the remnants of Bill is heading for/ I'm driving out to Pittsburgh on Saturday to see the Rolling Stone that night. Will I be sitting in a in a crossfire hurricane?

The remnant low will probably roll through the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Expect rain, nothing more. Could be a couple inches of rain, but Pittsburgh drains well.

 

[bac2therac]

We need rain. Hopefully this weak storm makes it up here.

Actually we caught up on rain the past two weeks so not sure what you are talking about

 

[T2Kplus10]

Actually we caught up on rain the past two weeks so not sure what you are talking about

I think I said that over a month ago.

 

[bac2therac]

I think I said that over a month ago.

haha you did my bad, why was this thread brought back up?

 

[T2Kplus10]

haha you did my bad, why was this thread brought back up?

Crazy Ole Numbers just can't let old things go. :)

 

[RU848789]

haha you did my bad, why was this thread brought back up?

I brought it back up to highlight the updated tropical forecast by Gray et al and to mention Bill, but in my reply to my own post, I failed to quote it properly, so one couldn't see the new part easily. I just fixed it.

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

Gray says 4 9 15.. Ading 50%... 6 14 22

Gray says 7/3/1 (named storms/hurricanes/major hurricanes), for a very light season, not 4/9/15 - 4/9/15 was the date the forecast was issued (I changed it to Apr 9th), lol.

I stupidly took it as 4 majors, 9 hurricanes and 15 named storms.. so my "prediction" became 6 - 14 - 22..... while stupid, it is actually addresses my point.. the models suck.. the predictions suck.. and you may as well add 50% to a date a prediction was made as to the prediction itself.

So, if I had added 50% to his prediction the numbers would be.. 2 majors, 5 hurricanes and 11 named storms.. or there-abouts.

 

[RU848789]

I stupidly took it as 4 majors, 9 hurricanes and 15 named storms.. so my "prediction" became 6 - 14 - 22..... while stupid, it is actually addresses my point.. the models suck.. the predictions suck.. and you may as well add 50% to a date a prediction was made as to the prediction itself.

So, if I had added 50% to his prediction the numbers would be.. 2 majors, 5 hurricanes and 11 named storms.. or there-abouts.

Sorry, but I wouldn't say ranting about the models "sucking" qualifies as making a point - it's just an ill-informed opinion. Dr. Gray's seasonal predictions, while far from perfect, are, over many years, significantly more accurate than what climatology would predict (or vs. anyone simply guessing). As far as I know, his is the only seasonal forecast of any kind that is significantly more accurate than climatology (although the guy who has correlated Siberian snowfall in October to seasonal snowfall, globally, might be on to something, from what I've read). To me, that's extraordinary.