Perhaps you've never met a skier? Or someone who wants a day off of work. Or someone who favors the rare beauty of winter scenery?
I could continue ...
OT: Major West Coast winter storm where some will see over 150 inches of snow
- Thread starter Tango Two
- Start date
Perhaps you've never met a skier? Or someone who wants a day off of work. Or someone who favors the rare beauty of winter scenery?
I could continue ...
Thank you. I've always been confused by the wind direction because it seems to me it would be different at different points. I'll remember that it has to do with the wind at the coast. BTW, didn't Benjamin Franklin do some research into how nor'easters work, using the various directions in which trees fell in different places?
If you listen to him rather than the official forecast you would have prepared yourself for a 2-4 inch snowfall that never came nor was ever forecasted
Numbers loves the applause and does post very valuable stuff but he and his peanut gallery need to grow tougher skins on stuff they do not get right.
And thats the issue...the hype began last night for this storm yet 5 days out we have no clarity even today. We have seen these storms give us big dumps of snow as well as slop to rain and mostly rain. Therms for this at the moment are questionable
C’mon man. You can do better than that. I’m fine and don’t have a history of being a dick in these threads. You do and you should own it. But thanks for the self awareness advice Dr. Phil. I find it funny that I didn’t expose you clowns by name in my initial post, but you trotted yourselves out anyway.
Do you also find it odd that grown middle aged men follow peole around anonymously online and continually bicker as if they are an old married couple?
We would ask them to pin all your posts that bring something of value to the board instead of just attacks. However they are still waiting for your first.
Don't quit your day job.
Being funny ...or within shooting distance ...is not your strong suit.
I disagree with this point. He has a snow bias for sure but always lays out the scenarios and qualifies things. Given that we’re still in this COVID thing, not sure the early storm predictions had a major impact here.
Says the guy who has been known exclusively as ShortBus by several dozen posters over the course of, what ...a decade? Two ...three? 😂
I think there is another peanut gallery at work here and they expose themselves every time.
Like it or not, there are many people on this board, that appreciate ###s input .Those that don’t should learn how
to use the ignore option. Few appreciate the bickering
to use the ignore option. Few appreciate the bickering
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
With 20 different solutions...from the worst storm of all time to a complete bust! 😉
Euro ensembles...take your pick.....we should take bets on this one...there are 50 ensemble members showing everything under the sun
And they say #s only reports info not predicts anything. But he sure does edit it to the worst case scenario every single time. Such a saint.Euro ensembles...take your pick.....we should take bets on this one...there are 50 ensemble members showing everything under the sun
Agree, just don't read the f*&$*#ing thread
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Just way too many inputs to nail down a solution at this point. Too many vorts, and need to clear out tomorrow's southern miss to set up the height field in its wake in order to figure what happens Sun night. If I had to forecast now I'd just say plowable event possible statewide, potential for a long duration, high impact event.
I think we need a thread about the possibility of the sun rising tomorrow.
It was our weekly poker night (COVID home game is on line now - will start a thread on that if people are interested in the on-line site we use), so I missed all the bickering and will try to not engage since it's pointless. I will just say this though: I didn't start any of the arguing and I never post about my love for snow in these threads since some dislike that so I leave it out, in an attempt to not start arguments.
Anyway back to the storm. Tonight's 0Z models are all in and there is even a bit higher confidence in a major (major is 8-12" to me) winter storm for most of the Philly-NJ-NYC region (and most places from DC to Boston). We're still about 4 days out from the start of the storm, as depicted by every model now (they all start with some light snow by late Sunday afternoon to Sunday late evening (the spread on start/end times was about 18 hours, 12 hours ago and is now <6 hours, which indicates better consensus/confidence); the end times are Tues morning/afternoon on all of the models (it's a long duration storm, as modeled). And 3 of the 4 global models show widespread "historic" snowfall amounts (12-20" for me; one can debate the descriptor, so that's why I include the amounts) for most of CNJ/NNJ/NYC. With respect to the big picture model details...
- The Euro shows a major to historic snowstorm for all of CNJ/NNJ/NYC/EPA with 12-16" of snow for everyone N of 195/276 and 6-12" everywhere else in EPA/SNJ S of 195/276, except for about 3-6" for SE of Salem to Toms River. These lower amounts are due to mixing/change to sleet/rain at times.
- The Canadian shows a historic snowstorm for all of CNJ/NNJ/NYC/LI and Monmouth/Ocean with a range of 12-20", but with 20-26" for the eastern parts of Middlesex to Bergen and all of NYC/LI. The CMC has a general 8-12" for EPA and the rest of SNJ/Phillly (even down to Cape May. The CMC probably represents the ceiling with this storm and nobody is going to predict that as an outcome without every other model in line with it <1 day out.
- The GFS shows 12-16" for NENJ from Monmouth up to Bergen and for NYC/LI and 8-12" for the western 1/3 of CNJ/NNJ (Merceer-Hunterdon-Warren) and E-PA N of 276 and has 3-6" for SEPA and SNJ S of 276/195 (except much of Monmouth, as per above) and only a few inches for SENJ, again due to sleet/rain.
- Finally, the UK is now only showing a little less snowfall than the other models, as it's no longer further offshore (it had a fair amount less earlier today). It's showing 6-12" for everywhere in EPA/NJ N of 276/195 and for NYC/LI, including a decent area of 12-16" N of 80 in NNJ and the HV. South of 276/195 is about 3-6" with less towards the coast and far SNJ, due to mixing/changeover.
- One other thing to keep in mind: if this storm ends up being anything like modeled, there will be mesoscale deformation snowbands that setup which will put down an extra several inches of snow in some spots (these are normally SW to NE oriented and well inland of the surface low and are often about 20 miles wide by 50-75 miles long), but we won't know where they set up until the storm hits.
- With the primary surface low still off the US West Coast, the data inputs are still sparser than they'll be tomorrow afternoon, after the system comes ashore, so, in theory, we should have higher confidence forecasts starting tomorrow night, as the data inputs will be more complete and we'll be closer to the event. But that doesn't always happen that way. Figure I'll post snowfall maps starting tomorrow night (another reason not to is that they don't always remain for reasons I can't figure out, as I host them on imgur - those big red X's). The usual links below including to the free model output sites I usually use and which are pretty easy to use.
- https://www.pivotalweather.com/mode...10_acc&rh=2021012800&fh=144&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=
- https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...gion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2021012800&fh=144
- https://www.33andrain.com/topic/201...inter-storm-threat-discussion-2-12-2/page/51/
- https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic...um-late-sunday-jan-31-early-tue-feb-2/page/6/
- https://www.weather.gov/phi/
For some perspective, we're 4 days out and in the modern era of numerical weather prediction (last 20-25 years or so) we've had one horrible complete bust for everyone in this area (March 2001, which was off by 100+ miles) vs. what was forecasted right up until the storm start and one mostly bad bust for this area (Jan-2015, where the forecast for Philly and most of NJ was way way off, while eastern NJ/coastal NJ/NYC were off, but not nearly as badly. Those two and especially Jan-2015, which was recent, as some major advances have been made in modeling since 2001, will always make any forecasters reluctant to predict big snowstorms 4 days out let alone even 2-3 days out.
We've also had some other modest busts on some big storms, where some areas busted, but other areas didn't (like last month on 12/16) and we've also had some pretty good forecasts on big storms from a few days out (not always 4 days, though), including Jan-96, Dec-2000, Feb-2003, Dec-2003, Feb-2006, Feb-2010, Dec-2010, Jan-2011, Feb-2014, and Jan-2016, which were all 12" or more storms in NYC (and much of CNJ/NNJ). The point is, for forecasted big storms, most of them have been forecasted pretty decently (never perfectly) from a few to several days out, with a few major busts.
Weak. 3.5 days before the event started I said, "At this point, I'd say a general 2-4" snowfall is starting to look likely, with the potential for a 4-8" event still on the table, as well as the potential for just a 1-2" event." Even if you think that's a 2-4" forecast (I don't), it was 84 hours before the event - there wasn't even an official forecast out yet and who takes info from 3+ days out and "prepares oneself" for that forecast without checking back in as the event gets closer? Nobody.
Then ~60 hours before the start of the event I said 1-3" was looking more likely and then 48 hours before the event, as the models continued to show less and less snow, I showed the NWS 1-2" statewide snowfall forecast and mentioned how it was likely overdone given the models showing <1" for large parts of NJ. I would think anyone smart enough to check back in at that point would've seen that this was now a pretty minor event (I also changed the thread title to "minor" at that point).
And finally about 30 hours before the event, I was questioning why so many mets/media sources were calling for 1-3" when the models weren't showing that and I was saying <1" south of 78 and maybe 1-2" N of 78 was more likely - and that's what we actually got. You need to do a little better homework before you make patently wrong claims about what I said on that thread.
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...27-some-uncertainty-still.210083/post-4916796
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...27-some-uncertainty-still.210083/post-4918641
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...27-some-uncertainty-still.210083/post-4920330
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...27-some-uncertainty-still.210083/post-4920912
The NAVGEM? Really? You know you'd be laughed out of the storm thread on the weather boards if you tried to use the crappy NAVGEM to make a point about a storm. I'd actually like to see that, so please do. And for the record, the 0Z NAVGEM shows an historic blizzard for the region. Also, talking about individual ensemble members is just silly. All that really matters is the ensemble mean and how different it might be from the operational run, showing the sensitivity of the model run to the initial conditions, mostly.
Read my reply to bac on Tuesday's storm. Yes, the models 4-5 days out were wrong, but I quickly responded to the change in models and actually was noting how the NWS/media forecasts 1-2 days before the event were likely overdone. That's certainly not "posting the worst possible scenario every single time." Same thing on 12/16, where I strongly questioned the NWS having 12-18" for most of the area just NW of 95 - I said I thought 8-12" was a much better call (and 6-10" would've been even better, in hindsight).
Well said, thanks for posting. Sounds similar to my bottom line in the long post I just made, where I said, "confidence is pretty high in at least several inches of snow and is growing in getting at least 8"." and then went on to outline a few of the things that might cause this to not be a major storm. Of course I also highlighted the major impact that the models are indicating is quite possible. Will you be doing an "official" forecast? If so, would be great if you could share it here.
I don't know about the tree thing, but as per the linked article, he was one of the first people to establish that a storm's wind direction (like in a nor'easter) has nothing to do with the direction the storm is traveling, per se, as he corresponded with his brother about weather conditions during an eclipse with his brother in Boston and figured out that the storm he had experienced didn't hit Boston for several hours indicating that is must have moved NE-ward. Pretty clever dude.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...w-storms-move/2011/10/19/gIQAE8TcxL_blog.html
Per Dan Zarrow 101.5 this will not be an all snow event.
Same with all 3 Philly TV stations. No one gave an estimate of how much snow. Too early. Good to see some common sense.
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anon_ivydyf0amkzay
Guest
Imagine that...it is still three days before said event...NO ONE should be throwing out snow guesses out...that’s forecast 101...
Looks like an all snow event right now for me. Keep the reports coming numbers and don't forget about us in the northern part of the state.
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