OT: March Weather Banter; OG Thread Was: Winter Storm Thursday 2/20: Very Likely Somewhere Between A Non-Event and a Minor Event (oof)
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As a kid sometimes driving by there you would see people wandering the grounds in white hospital gowns, which would account for people seeing ghosts and then of course there were always the stories about a patient escaping and wandering around the neighborhoods
Wednesday has a shot at 70 or above for most away from coast
temps up and down over the next 2 weeks. some low 60s but alot of low to mid 50s showing up particularly Friday and much of next week stuck a bit cooler..not awful for this time of year but not the warmth that many of us covet this time of year.
temps up and down over the next 2 weeks. some low 60s but alot of low to mid 50s showing up particularly Friday and much of next week stuck a bit cooler..not awful for this time of year but not the warmth that many of us covet this time of year.
In one of the weirder modeling observations in a long time, the GFS has been showing a few to several inches (or more) of snow for our entire area on Friday morning for the past 2-3 days, while no other model has been showing anything other than maybe a few inches well north of 84 in NY/New England. 99% likely the GFS is wrong, given no other model support, but there's always a Dumb and Dumber chance I guess, although it's worth noting that the NWS-Philly mentioned the possibility of a little bit of snow for NW areas this afternoon for the first time, as per below. This weekend looks pretty nice...
Temperatures will fall into the mid to
upper 30s for most areas by Friday morning, and near to below
freezing north of I-78. A brief transition to snow could result
in a dusting in the higher elevations of NW NJ and the southern
Poconos.
Temperatures will fall into the mid to
upper 30s for most areas by Friday morning, and near to below
freezing north of I-78. A brief transition to snow could result
in a dusting in the higher elevations of NW NJ and the southern
Poconos.
Clown maps in March with marginal temps are especially useless
Its going to be loverly tomorrow
Enjoy it. Might not 70 again for next 2 weeks
Enjoy it. Might not 70 again for next 2 weeks
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Spring in NJ. 50's & cloudy with daily backdoor cold front reinforcement. Right up until it flips to 80 & sunny & dry late May.
0.5-1.0" of rain possible from Thursday evening through Friday morning (mainly before 8 am), as per the NWS-Philly blurb below. Obviously, if that precip were snow, it would be substantial, but clearly that's very, very unlikely. NWS-NYC is talking about possible interior snowfall, though (like NW Passaic/Bergen and the HV).
The bulk of the rainfall will occur Thursday evening into the
overnight period for much of the area along a strengthening
deformation zone, formerly the approaching cold front. Forecast
rainfall totals range from around 0.5" to 1" across the area,
though some localized amounts greater than 1" are certainly
possible where banded rainfall is more persistent.
My weather app shows 3-5" for Hunter on Friday...will probably all melt by end of day but does look a little colder next week. Maybe ski season gets into April which would be nice.
That's because your app likely is based on the GFS model, like some are, and it's likely overdone, as most other models are not showing significant snow for Hunter, let alone parts of CNJ/NNJ/NYC/NEPA, but at least snow at Hunter seems possible with the NWS forecasting a few inches, whereas snow for our area just seems like a fantasy for early Friday (and even the latest GFS finally backed off the snow for then, with snow only N of 80).
The GFS is known to have a cold bias in the spring, according to DonS on AmericanWx, which is likely why we've been seeing GFS outlier snowy runs - with an even bigger outlier run for big snow on 3/31 - again, likely a fantasy. A more likely potential for a bit of snow, at least N of 80 and especially towards 84, exists for 3/24 as most models show that possibility (a few inches not a major snowstorm). We often see the biggest wild swings in modeled snowfall in March, due to marginal temps with lots of precip, where a tiny temperature shift can mean the difference between a bunch of snow and a bunch of rain.
AI breakthrough is ‘revolution’ in weather forecasting
Aardvark Weather model can generate forecasts in seconds with just a fraction of the data of traditional systems
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Yeah but does it bloviate for 5 paragraphs.AI breakthrough is ‘revolution’ in weather forecasting
Aardvark Weather model can generate forecasts in seconds with just a fraction of the data of traditional systemsau.finance.yahoo.com
Wind is howling above Boone NC just now, as temps dropped quickly, bottoming out late tonight at 23°. 2"- 4" of snoooooow expected up here on the ridges. Plow and chains are off the ATV. Firewood porch caddy has been moved off to storage, and split reserves remaining in the shed are down to 1/3 of a cord. Really hoping this is the last of winter, but... unlikely. Last year, we had a heavy dusting in early May. Escaping east to Beaufort next week....
Got close to an inch of rain last night, came in hard while I was at the gym, wasn't expecting it. Was pouring when we left the gym, and then I had to grill in the rain. Not sure how late it went, was still coming down around midnight when I went to bed.
2" fell here. Waiting it out vs shoveling. 30° now. Supposed to reach high 40s late this afternoon.
We will go up and down over the next several days..mainly down save for low 60s Saturday
Euro did show 70..actually mid 70s toward next weekend but we shall see if future runs back off
Euro did show 70..actually mid 70s toward next weekend but we shall see if future runs back off
To me, spring is annoying. I hate the variability.
The 1/2-1" of rain that was forecasted since Monday verified pretty well for most last night through early this morning, as per the map below. And nobody was predicting snow for anywhere outside of the highest elevations like the Poconos/Catskills and even that was only for a possible inch or two - which didn't materialize at all, except for the highest elevations in the Catskills, like Hunter, which got an inch or so of snow. Noting that one model (the GFS) was showing snow a few days before an event and that it was very likely wrong, with no other model support, is not a "prediction" of snow - the GFS certainly has been out to lunch a lot lately.
After a decent day tomorrow with highs around 60F, we'll have a pretty chilly Sunday morning with lows in the 20s and a cool day on Sunday with highs in the upper 40s. Next week looks fairly seasonable (avg highs are in the mid-50s) and fairly dry with a couple of days with shower chances, but no big storms look likely (~1/2" or so of rain over the next 7 days).
After a decent day tomorrow with highs around 60F, we'll have a pretty chilly Sunday morning with lows in the 20s and a cool day on Sunday with highs in the upper 40s. Next week looks fairly seasonable (avg highs are in the mid-50s) and fairly dry with a couple of days with shower chances, but no big storms look likely (~1/2" or so of rain over the next 7 days).
I actually love every season, even summer, lol. Love seeing everything spring back to life this time of year.
And as I suspected back off they did...next weekend in the 50s...actually most of next week as well with one of those days possibly stuck in 40s...spring
Sustained warmth likely not coming til after teams first week in April
I'm fine with your first speculative post and I'm fine with your follow-up here, but if the situation was reversed, you'd be all over my post screaming "fail" or spewing some other childish insult. That hypocrisy is why your credibility in these threads is so low. Lay off the insults and hypocrisy and these could be much better threads.
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