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OT: Minor/Moderate Snowfall NW of 95/N of 78 Mon (2/22)

RU848789

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Metuchen, NJ
This is not a big deal, but thought folks in the areas listed might not know they likely have a few inches of snow coming tomorrow, starting mid-morning and going into the afternoon. Not a huge storm (0.3-0.4" liquid equivalent), but where it falls as mostly/all snow could produce 2-4" of snow. That's most likely for places like the Poconos, Sussex/Warren/NW Morris/NW Passaic, but even 1-2" of snow could fall down to 78 and not far NW of 95. Might even see a coating to an inch on colder surfaces (like the snow on the ground) along 95 and some models are even showing 1-2", but that's not the forecast.

While the models are almost all showing more snow than the NWS is forecasting, the model bust potential is high for seeing those amounts, given borderline temps and the indirect late Feb sun. This is also one of those rare events where Philly is forecast to get more than NB to NYC, since the precip is coming from the west and will reach the Philly area first, while it's a little colder and more likely to snow. We'll see if that verifies.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

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The NWS did issue advisories for 2-4" of snow for Warren and the Lehigh Valley and for 3-5" for the Poconos, but no advisory for Sussex - not sure I've ever seen an advisory for Warren w/o one for Sussex (they said it was because of less precip for Sussex).

Just to illustrate how tight the gradient is in the models, here's the GFS for tomorrow afternoon showing 3.1" for Philly and 0" for Cherry Hill, 6 miles SE; similarly, it shows 1.9" for Edison and 0" for Old Bridge; all of the models are similar with steep gradients, but those steep gradients might be NW of 95 or SE of 95 a bit vs. the GFS. Very high bust potential on this one.

One thing is almost for sure: if the 95 corridor gets accumulating snow between 10 am and 2 pm tomorrow, it'll almost exclusively be on only colder surfaces like the snow and not on paved surfaces unless we get some pretty heavy rates as it'll be 33-34F just above the surface and we'll have the indirect late Feb sun. 15+ miles NW of 95 and near/north of 78, where it'll be a little colder, there could be some travel impacts.

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The NWS did issue advisories for 2-4" of snow for Warren and the Lehigh Valley and for 3-5" for the Poconos, but no advisory for Sussex - not sure I've ever seen an advisory for Warren w/o one for Sussex (they said it was because of less precip for Sussex).

Just to illustrate how tight the gradient is in the models, here's the GFS for tomorrow afternoon showing 3.1" for Philly and 0" for Cherry Hill, 6 miles SE; similarly, it shows 1.9" for Edison and 0" for Old Bridge; all of the models are similar with steep gradients, but those steep gradients might be NW of 95 or SE of 95 a bit vs. the GFS. Very high bust potential on this one.

One thing is almost for sure: if the 95 corridor gets accumulating snow between 10 am and 2 pm tomorrow, it'll almost exclusively be on only colder surfaces like the snow and not on paved surfaces unless we get some pretty heavy rates as it'll be 33-34F just above the surface and we'll have the indirect late Feb sun. 15+ miles NW of 95 and near/north of 78, where it'll be a little colder, there could be some travel impacts.

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The NWS added Sussex, NW Bucks and NW Montgomery, too, for a general 2-4" snowfall tomorrow (and 3-5" in the Poconos), without adding Hunterdon or Morris - this is another one of those cases for split counties, as I'm guessing NW Morris and NW Hunterdon will do as well as NW Bucks and Montco. The models also continue to show more snow than the NWS forecasts (for example, the NWS forecast for NB is <1", but most of the 18Z models (and new 0Z models so far) show ~2" for NB), so this could be an interesting event, with strong bust potential on both the high and low side.

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The NWS added Sussex, NW Bucks and NW Montgomery, too, for a general 2-4" snowfall tomorrow (and 3-5" in the Poconos), without adding Hunterdon or Morris - this is another one of those cases for split counties, as I'm guessing NW Morris and NW Hunterdon will do as well as NW Bucks and Montco. The models also continue to show more snow than the NWS forecasts (for example, the NWS forecast for NB is <1", but most of the 18Z models (and new 0Z models so far) show ~2" for NB), so this could be an interesting event, with strong bust potential on both the high and low side.

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And the NWS -Philly overnight added Hunterdon and Morris counties to the advisory list for 2-4" of snow this morning/early afternoon, while the NWS-NYC added Passaic, N. Bergen, W. Essex and the Hudson Valley to the advisory list, also for 2-4" of snow. In addition, the next tier of counties SE of there on the western side of the 95 corridor (Philadelphia, SE Montco, SE Bucks, Mercer and Somerset) are forecast to get 1-2" with up to 3" in the NW parts of those counties. Up to an inch is forecast from about NB through NYC, along 95 (less than SW of NB to Phillly, which has 1-2" forecast).

With this event being a quick hitter with up to about 0.5" of liquid equivalent falling in maybe 6-7 hours from mid-morning through mid/late-afternoon, buts potential is quite high especially along and just NW of 95, where temps will be borderline for accumulating snow (33-35F) during late Feb with the higher sun angle, so snow may only accumulate on the snow on the ground at 32F, with little accumulating on paved surfaces - it would be easy for 95 and just NW to be almost all rain, while it would also be easy for the 95-corridor to be mostly snow with a few inches falling on colder surfaces. Tough forecast with a steep gradient in snowfall from SE to NW. Further NW for the advisory counties, snowfall rates should be enough for impacts on travel.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/2029-february-22-2021-nw-burbs-snow-thump/page/3/

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Light snow started in Metuchen around 10:45 am; it dropped from 38 to 36F in the last 20 minutes and has more room to drop with a dp of 26F. Any snow today along 95 is bonus snow, IMO. Reports of decent snow from Philly to Trenton and up into Somerset County and NW of there. If this storm had come in 3 hours ago, everyone would get 2-4" of snow, but later in the day with more warmth will make it a close call for those along 95 at least.

11:00 am edit: Well that escalated quickly - moderate snow now and 35F (wet bulb is 32F).
 
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Light snow started in Metuchen around 10:45 am; it dropped from 38 to 36F in the last 20 minutes and has more room to drop with a dp of 26F. Any snow today along 95 is bonus snow, IMO. Reports of decent snow from Philly to Trenton and up into Somerset County and NW of there. If this storm had come in 3 hours ago, everyone would get 2-4" of snow, but later in the day with more warmth will make it a close call for those along 95 at least.
Big fat flakes coming down pretty heavy here - i'm on the edge of middlesex/somerset county in south brunswick. like...heavier than at any other time in the storm last week.
 
Light snow started in Metuchen around 10:45 am; it dropped from 38 to 36F in the last 20 minutes and has more room to drop with a dp of 26F. Any snow today along 95 is bonus snow, IMO. Reports of decent snow from Philly to Trenton and up into Somerset County and NW of there. If this storm had come in 3 hours ago, everyone would get 2-4" of snow, but later in the day with more warmth will make it a close call for those along 95 at least.

11:00 am edit: Well that escalated quickly - moderate snow now and 35F (wet bulb is 32F).
As of 11:30 am we have 3/8" on colder surfaces and just starting to accumulate on paved surfaces with moderate snowfall rates; street in front of the house has no snow on it yet as it's traveled a bit. Between 34 and 35F now.
 
Snowing here in Basking Ridge and I am just sick of it at this point. Whatever falls is going to sit there until it melts. I am done.
 
As of 11:30 am we have 3/8" on colder surfaces and just starting to accumulate on paved surfaces with moderate snowfall rates; street in front of the house has no snow on it yet as it's traveled a bit. Between 34 and 35F now.

As of 11:55 am we have 3/4" on colder surfaces and a slushy accumulation on paved surfaces with moderate to almost heavy snowfall rates; street in front of the house now has slush on it yet. Temp down to 33F now and if it stays there, we could be in for a few inches of snow. This one appears to be overperforming almost everywhere.
 
At 11:47 a.m., the National Weather Service issued a "special weather statement" for southern New Jersey and for central at least as high up as Middlesex county, warning of the possibility of sleet and freezing rain this afternoon until temperatures rise above freezing at 3 p.m.

The sidewalks here are clear but there is something (sleet, I think) falling. The temperature is above freezing now; I would think that means no freezing rain for us unless the temperature goes down, something the NWS is not warning of.

We're concerned because my wife has a vaccination appointment at 2 today about a half hour away on county roads. Naturally, she will turn back if driving seems unsafe. I'm trying to be optimistic.
 
why is the temp falling? I thought it was supposed to be in the low 40's today
 
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